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GOOD NEWS
Allgreen has eight sites in China, six through a JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri La.
For JV projects, total equity commitment is around S$700m. Allgreen plans to release two residential projects in the near term:
a site in Tianjin and a site in Chengdu.
Allgreen's China Segment: (Source: 28/8/09 CIMB-GK Research)
Financing update:
Allgreen has eight sites in China, six through a JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri La. For JV projects, total equity commitment
is around S$700m, of which around S$450m is for the land and S$250m for construction. In the last two years, Allgreen has paid
down the bulk of the land-cost commitment. We expect proceeds received from recent property presales in Singapore to take care
of the rest. Management guided that Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio for its China developments ranges from 40% to 50%. Assuming a
40% LTV, we estimate a total development cost of S$1.1bn-1.2bn. Our model accounts for this. We believe financing for the bulk
of the debt component is already in place.
Planning to push out projects soon:
selling price targets bullish. Allgreen plans to release two residential projects in the near term: a site in Tianjin and a site in Chengdu.
For the former, construction is underway. Management guided that residential prices in Tianjin have gone up from Rmb8,000psm to
Rmb16,000psm. We believe it plans to use this as a benchmark for its Tianjin project. For its Chengdu project, Allgreen is looking at
Rmb12,000-14,000psm. Management believes that units in certain projects in the area are now commanding as much as
Rmb17,000psm. While the tone of the guidance is positive, our cross checks with our China analyst, Alice Chong, suggest that
optimism should be kept in check. For properties in Tianjin, ASPs of Rmb16,000psm are achievable, but only for high-end projects
that are located in very good districts. As a reference, Yanlord, a high-end developer in China, recently launched and sold a project
in Tianjin at Rmb16,000psm while Guangzhou R&F also achieved ASPs of Rmb10,000-16,000psm. For Chengdu, she believes ASPs
of Rmb17,000psm are mostly reserved for super-luxury projects. By and large, properties in the area are still fetching Rmb6,000-
8,000psm.
Raising RNAV estimate and target price:
maintain Outperform. We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreen’s Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance.
In particular, our China ASPs have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect optimism on China properties.
Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance.
TP by DBS vickers on 18 Sept
(1) value in the mid-caps, BUY Allgreen (TP
S$1.36) and Bukit Sembawang (TP S$5.94);
AllGreen (buying trending is round the corner)
%R turning back up. Stochastic looks like bottoming and turning back up. MACD turning flat and RSI turning up. All these are signs that AG is making a comeback.
%R turning back up. Stochastic looks like bottoming and turning back up. MACD turning flat and RSI turning up. All these are signs that AG is making a comeback.
Property counter moving today, CapitalLand +0.06.
Allgreen should be moving , TP: $1.48
TA as at 18 Sep 09
Stochastic: 35.714
Williams: -77.273
Their China Segment will follow the upside too. Sweet :)
Sweet! : )
This is good news for Allgreen too! Allgreen has eight sites in China, six through a JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri La.
For JV projects, total equity commitment is around S$700m. Allgreen plans to release two residential projects in the near term:
a site in Tianjin and a site in Chengdu.
Allgreen's China Segment: (Source: 28/8/09 CIMB-GK Research)
Financing update:
Allgreen has eight sites in China, six through a JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri La. For JV projects, total equity commitment
is around S$700m, of which around S$450m is for the land and S$250m for construction. In the last two years, Allgreen has paid
down the bulk of the land-cost commitment. We expect proceeds received from recent property presales in Singapore to take care
of the rest. Management guided that Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio for its China developments ranges from 40% to 50%. Assuming a
40% LTV, we estimate a total development cost of S$1.1bn-1.2bn. Our model accounts for this. We believe financing for the bulk
of the debt component is already in place.
Planning to push out projects soon:
selling price targets bullish. Allgreen plans to release two residential projects in the near term: a site in Tianjin and a site in Chengdu.
For the former, construction is underway. Management guided that residential prices in Tianjin have gone up from Rmb8,000psm to
Rmb16,000psm. We believe it plans to use this as a benchmark for its Tianjin project. For its Chengdu project, Allgreen is looking at
Rmb12,000-14,000psm. Management believes that units in certain projects in the area are now commanding as much as
Rmb17,000psm. While the tone of the guidance is positive, our cross checks with our China analyst, Alice Chong, suggest that
optimism should be kept in check. For properties in Tianjin, ASPs of Rmb16,000psm are achievable, but only for high-end projects
that are located in very good districts. As a reference, Yanlord, a high-end developer in China, recently launched and sold a project
in Tianjin at Rmb16,000psm while Guangzhou R&F also achieved ASPs of Rmb10,000-16,000psm. For Chengdu, she believes ASPs
of Rmb17,000psm are mostly reserved for super-luxury projects. By and large, properties in the area are still fetching Rmb6,000-
8,000psm.
Raising RNAV estimate and target price:
maintain Outperform. We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreen’s Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance.
In particular, our China ASPs have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect optimism on China properties.
Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance.
(Source from: yipyip Veteran )
Posted: 21-Sep-2009 17:03 Contact yipyip * Quote this Post!
China Property
Until the export sector picks up, the domestic property story is going to be the main driver of Chinese growth, monetary policy
would remain loose until the end of 2010.
With weak exports dragging the economy down, Beijing was relying on buoyant apartment and share prices to help it meet its
target of 8 per cent growth - and does not want to wind back its stimulus measures just yet...
'Public and private statements by Chinese officials signal clearly that they are not worried about asset prices overheating, and
they are instead concerned about the sustainability of the economic recovery now under way,' Andy Rothman and Julia Zhu,
economists at CLSA, said in a report....
Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier this month that China's recovery remained fragile and that it was too soon for Beijing to
reconsider its current stimulus policy...
And central bank vice- governor Su Ning was quoted as saying last week that monetary policy would remain loose until the
end of 2010...
New data in August suggested the government- funded spending spree was paying off - fixed asset investment was steady,
retail sales accelerated and new lending rebounded after a sharp fall in July....
Yet exports, China's main growth engine, continued to fall in the first eight months of the year.
Mr Kurtz said the government was now relying on the property market to drive the economy.
'Until the export sector picks up, the domestic property story is going to be the main driver of Chinese growth,' said Mr Kurtz.
'China needs construction to resume and remain robust next year and that won't happen unless China leaves in place policies
that sustain confidence in property prices and sustain relatively high transaction volumes in the residential property market.'..
(BT, AFP, 21/09/2009)
Sweet! : )
This is good news for Allgreen too! Allgreen has eight sites in China, six through a JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri La. For JV projects,
total equity commitment is around S$700m. Allgreen plans to release two residential projects in the near term: a site in Tianjin and a site in
Chengdu.
Allgreen's China Segment: (Source: 28/8/09 CIMB-GK Research)
Financing update:
Allgreen has eight sites in China, six through a JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri La. For JV projects, total equity commitment is around
S$700m, of which around S$450m is for the land and S$250m for construction. In the last two years, Allgreen has paid down the bulk of the land-cost
commitment. We expect proceeds received from recent property presales in Singapore to take care of the rest. Management guided that Loan-to-Value
(LTV) ratio for its China developments ranges from 40% to 50%. Assuming a 40% LTV, we estimate a total development cost of S$1.1bn-1.2bn.
Our model accounts for this. We believe financing for the bulk of the debt component is already in place.
Planning to push out projects soon:
selling price targets bullish. Allgreen plans to release two residential projects in the near term: a site in Tianjin and a site in
Chengdu. For the former, construction is underway. Management guided that residential prices in Tianjin have gone up from Rmb8,000psm to Rmb16,000psm.
We believe it plans to use this as a benchmark for its Tianjin project. For its Chengdu project, Allgreen is looking at Rmb12,000-14,000psm. Management
believes that units in certain projects in the area are now commanding as much as Rmb17,000psm. While the tone of the guidance is positive, our cross
checks with our China analyst, Alice Chong, suggest that optimism should be kept in check. For properties in Tianjin, ASPs of Rmb16,000psm are achievable,
but only for high-end projects that are located in very good districts. As a reference, Yanlord, a high-end developer in China, recently launched and sold a
project in Tianjin at Rmb16,000psm while Guangzhou R&F also achieved ASPs of Rmb10,000-16,000psm. For Chengdu, she believes ASPs of Rmb17,000psm
are mostly reserved for super-luxury projects. By and large, properties in the area are still fetching Rmb6,000-8,000psm.
Raising RNAV estimate and target price:
maintain Outperform. We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreen’s Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance. In particular, our China ASPs
have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect optimism on China properties. Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance.
(Source from: yipyip Veteran )
Posted: 21-Sep-2009 17:03 Contact yipyip * Quote this Post!
China Property
Until the export sector picks up, the domestic property story is going to be the main driver of Chinese growth, monetary policy would remain loose until the end of 2010.
With weak exports dragging the economy down, Beijing was relying on buoyant apartment and share prices to help it meet its target of 8 per cent growth - and does not
want to wind back its stimulus measures just yet...
'Public and private statements by Chinese officials signal clearly that they are not worried about asset prices overheating, and they are instead concerned about the
sustainability of the economic recovery now under way,' Andy Rothman and Julia Zhu, economists at CLSA, said in a report....
Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier this month that China's recovery remained fragile and that it was too soon for Beijing to reconsider its current stimulus policy...
And central bank vice- governor Su Ning was quoted as saying last week that monetary policy would remain loose until the end of 2010...
New data in August suggested the government- funded spending spree was paying off - fixed asset investment was steady, retail sales accelerated and new lending
rebounded after a sharp fall in July....
Yet exports, China's main growth engine, continued to fall in the first eight months of the year.
Mr Kurtz said the government was now relying on the property market to drive the economy.
'Until the export sector picks up, the domestic property story is going to be the main driver of Chinese growth,' said Mr Kurtz.
'China needs construction to resume and remain robust next year and that won't happen unless China leaves in place policies that sustain confidence in property prices
and sustain relatively high transaction volumes in the residential property market.'..
(BT, AFP, 21/09/2009)
TA now is upside :
Stochastic : 42.5%
William's%: -72.0
Today is the last day of "Hungry Ghost month", Start from next week the purchase of property
drivers remain intact. (Most ppl thinks the property price will up by 15% to 20% in the next 1 to 2 years time)
Allgreen is continue heading North now. +0.020 now!
Current Allgreen Projects: (http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/realEstate/pageflow/price/submitSearch.do)
One Devonshire (Devonshire Road)Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 149Units
Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road)Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 82Units
The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road)*Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 187Units
VIVA (Suffolk Walk)Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 218Units
*Total Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 658Units
*Total Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 636Units
Total Cumulative SOLD units %: 96.66%
(From CIMB 16Sep09)
The recent introduction of property cooling measures is expected to cause some
moderation in transaction volumes. We believe a combination of dampened sentiment
and the remaining days of the Hungry Ghost month could result in considerably
reduced monthly volumes in 4Q09.
However, we see no need for alarm just yet. At the moment, broad property drivers remain intact,
namely ample liquidity, low interest rates and strong household balance sheets.
WoW! 96.66% SOLD for Total Cumulative Units Launched to-date! Allgreen is expected to have an great $ improved 2H 2009 over 2H 2008. Sweet :)
Current Allgreen Projects:
(http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/realEstate/pageflow/price/submitSearch.do)
*Total Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 658Units
*Total Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 636Units
Total Cumulative SOLD units %: 96.66%
One Devonshire (Devonshire Road)
Total Number of Units in Project: 152Units
*Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 152Units
*Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 149Units
Median Price ($psf) in the Month Number Sold By Price Range: $2,066
Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road)
Total Number of Units in Project: 298Units
*Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 84Units
*Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 82Units
Median Price ($psf) in the Month Number Sold By Price Range: $750
The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road)
Total Number of Units in Project: 536Units
*Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 187Units
*Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 187Units
Median Price ($psf) in the Month Number Sold By Price Range: $N.A
VIVA (Suffolk Walk)
Total Number of Units in Project: 235Units
*Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 235Units
*Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 218Units
Median Price ($psf) in the Month Number Sold By Price Range: $1,537
Yes, Allgreen is only heading North side!
17Sep09 TA now is :
Stochastic Oscillator: %K 31.3% (Upside from 16Sep)
Williams'%: %R -78.8 (Upside from 16Sep)
16Sep09 TA was:
Stochastic Oscillator: %K 20.0%
Williams'%: %R -81.818
Only one direction........ NORTH.
daphnecsf ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 08:53) Posted:
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Sweet!
Viva is one of the major project for Allgreen on H2 2009 and up to date it has sold out up to 92.77%, with such a huge estimated revenue of $509,677,557 definitely will give a very huge impact on H2 P&L. Huat La!!!!!
WoW! $ $509,677,557 is a very substantial revenue ! Sweet! : )
Viva Launch on 3Aug2009
*Estimated Total Sold psf Revenue to-date: $ $509,677,557 ($549,399,113 x 92.77%)
Total Number of Units in Project: 235 units
Cumulative Units Sold todate: 218 units (92.77% SOLD, From CIMB 16Sep09)
VIVA info: http://www.viva.com.sg/
Developer: Allgreen
Launch on 3Aug2009
Location: No. 2, 6 & 8 Suffolk Walk
No of units: 235 condominiums
• 2BR (957 sqft) : 25 units (approx 23925sqft)
• 2+S (1044 sqft) : 25 units (approx 26100sqft)
• 3BR (1323 – 1345 sqft) : 69 units (approx 91287sqft)
• 3+S (1517 – 1528 sqft) : 39 units (approx 59163sqft)
• 4BR (1840 – 1991 sqft) : 65 units (approx 119600sqft)
• Suites (2486 – 3810 sqft) : 9 units (approx 22374sqft)
• Penthouses (4908 – 6339) : 3 units (apporx 15000sqft)
• Total area: approx 357449sqft
• $1,537psf (From CIMB 16Sep09)
• Total value: $549,399,113
Recent property launching by Allgreen i..e. VIVA instantly sold more than 230 units about 85% sold. at average price of Sgd.1800/ft2. It will generate quite a substantial income for Allgreen booked on end of this year I think.
Bintang ( Date: 16-Sep-2009 10:05) Posted:
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Allgreen has stabilized today , n may first rebound to $1.22 n then $1.26 to fill the gap .
Hulumas ( Date: 15-Sep-2009 10:46) Posted:
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DBS Group Research . Equity 15 Sep 2009
Switch Strategies.
• Calling for a switch in strategies:
(1) Hunt for midcap value;
(2) Diversify in big-caps; (3) Accumulate those with small landbank in a de-rating
We had previously advocated our preference for mid/small-caps and those with a
sizeable landbank. For now, we are calling for a switch in strategies:
(1) Stay selective in the mid-caps, hunt for value, BUY Allgreen (TP S$1.36)
and Bukit Sembawang (TP S$5.94);
(2) Look for diversification in the big-caps,
BUY Capitaland (TP S$4.18);
(3) In a sector de-rating, we would take the opportunity to accumulate those with a
smaller landbank for less policy impact and potential opportunity to landbank for
cheaper as competition for sites may slow down. Keep watch on Wheelock (HOLD,TP S$1.85),
UOL (BUY, TP S$3.93) and Wing Tai (HOLD, TP S$1.75), which could return to development
of mass/mid-market sites as the Confirmed List returns. We downgrade City Dev and
Ho Bee to HOLD, on valuation.
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS (As at 14Sep)
Allgreen S$1.16 RNAVS$1.70 Disc-20% TP$1.36 Upside 17% Buy
Bukit Sembawang S$4.97 RNAVS$8.49 Disc-30% TP$5.94 Upside 20% Buy
Capitaland S$3.72 RNAVS$5.26 Disc-15% TP$4.18 Upside 12% Buy
City Dev S$10.24 RNAVS$9.23 Disc+20% TP$11.08 Upside 8% Hold (from Buy)
Guocoland S$2.24 RNAVS$2.77 Disc-30% TP$1.94 Upside -13% Hold
Ho Bee S$1.39 RNAVS$2.03 Disc-30% TP$1.42 Upside 2% Hold (from Buy)
SC Global S$1.56 RNAVS$2.28 Disc-30% TP$1.60 Upside 3% Hold
Wheelock S$1.83 RNAVS$2.31 Disc-20% TP$1.85 Upside 1% Hold
Wing Tai S$1.76 RNAVS$2.18 Disc-20% TP$1.75 Upside -1% Hold
You are welcomed richtan , both your holdings AusGroup n Midas are doing not bad despite the market correction For Midas , as long as the 55MA at 82 cents provides strong support , once the correction is over , I have great confidence that it may shoot up strongly . Look at its Bollinger band which is tightening .
richtan ( Date: 15-Sep-2009 10:32) Posted:
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