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Rubber prices

Last june 2007 the price is only about 235 yen per...now shot past 300 shd be gd for GMG's profitablilty

zhuge_liang      ( Date: 07-May-2008 23:18) Posted: Rubber futures on TOCOM maintained the early gains Wed afternoon on the back of oil and precious metals futures' sharp rises. The benchmark, most distant Oct '08 contract traded at 307.6 yen per kg at 3:45p.m. Tokyo time, up 8.3 yen from Fri.

 

Rubber futures on TOCOM maintained the early gains Wed afternoon on the back of oil and precious metals futures' sharp rises. The benchmark, most distant Oct '08 contract traded at 307.6 yen per kg at 3:45p.m. Tokyo time, up 8.3 yen from Fri.

 

GMG's results were announced today. GMG's Q108 net profit surged 106.7% yoy to $10.77m. This was due to first time contribution from PT Bumi Jaya and an increase of 28.8% in sales to 16,609 tons of rubber at an average price of $3,565 per ton (an increase of 28.6% yoy). An exchange loss of $1,714,643 was posted compared with $280,215 recorded in the same period the previous year due mainly to realized exchange loss from euro-denominated payables in one of their subsidiary.

Rubber futures on TOCOM drew renewed buying Fri afternoon, wiping out the losses in the morning session. The benchmark, most distant Oct '08 contract ended at 300 yen at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, unchanged from the previous day.

 

check it out guys.

1Q08 earnings doubled

 

Tokyo rubber futures are likely to stay firm in May, hovering near the key psychological level of 300 yen on demand from China and record high oil prices, but rising supplies could cap gains, a Reuters poll showed on Fri.

The most active contract on TOCOM, Oct '08, may jump to 297.0 yen a kg by the end of May, up 2.8% from the previous forecast of 288.8 yen, according to the median forecast of 10 dealers and analysts.

The forecast ranged from a low of 280 yen to a high of 320 yen. Tokyo rubber rallied to its highest in nearly 8 weeks to 301.6 yen on Thu on firm oil prices.

"High oil prices will give support to the rubber market, even though rubber supply is expected to increase in May," said Suryadi Mulya of CV Dramaga in Indonesia's West Java city of Bogor.

The October contract fell 1.6 yen to 298.4 yen on Fri. It has rebounded 12% since falling to its lowest in more than 3 months to 266.1 yen in late Mar.

"I think TOCOM rubber will eventually top 324.3 yen," said a Japanese dealer, referring to a 20-month high struck in Feb. "But oil price corrections could cap TOCOM rises."

Tokyo rubber futures would also take their cue from movements in the yen , with a firming Japanese currency likely to put pressure on prices, but demand from main consumer China would offer support, analysts said.

China is expected to replenish stocks after rubber inventories in Shanghai dropped 13% to 46,110 tonnes in the week ended Apr 29, from 52,755 tonnes the week before. China mainly buys rubber from main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia as well as Vietnam. It imported 1.65 million tonnes of natural rubber in 2007, up 2.2% on a year earlier.

Purchases from China and other consumers may also help Tokyo futures resist downward pressure as supplies in Southeast Asia are expected to pick up in late May, when tapping resumes after the dry wintering season.

The benchmark TOCOM rubber is expected to hover around 295.0 yen per kg by the end of Jun, the poll showed.

A survey of 6 dealers in the three main producing countries showed physical prices would be mostly firmer at the end of May. Thai RSS3 was forecast to inch up to US$2.89 per kg at the end of May from US$2.88 at the end of Apr. Malaysian SMR20 could fall slightly to US$2.77 per kg at the end of May from US$2.78 at the end of Apr, while Indonesian SIR20 could rise to US$2.78 per kg from US$2.76 at the end of Apr.

 

Rubber futures on TOCOM recouped part of the morning losses Wed afternoon. The benchmark, most distant Oct '08 contract traded at 299.2 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, trimming its loss from Mon to one yen.

 

Thai rubber prices are seen between US$2.70-US$2.90 a kg for the rest of the year, about 22% higher than last year's average price, as India and China are likely to raise imports, a leading industry official said on 29/4.

"India will import more and China is expected to come back to the market, after a slower second quarter," Sang Udomjarumani, CEO of the International Rubber Consortium Limited, told Reuters.

The International Rubber Consortium was established by major rubber producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia to cooperate in stabilising prices.

"Supplies are not going to grow at the same rate. Thailand had a 2nd wintering season in some areas. High oil prices are even pushing up the price of synthetic rubber," he added.

Oil price rallied to a fresh record high of US$119.93 a barrel on 28/4.

The Thai agriculture ministry expects the country to produce around 3.2 million tonnes of rubber this year, or 6% more than the 3 million tonnes it produced last year because of plantation expansion.

But traders, including Sang, expect that production would not rise that high as erratic weather would cut supplies.

"Weather can disrupt production anytime," Sang said. "This year we have seen some parts of southern Thailand facing a longer wintering dry season," referring to the country's main rubber growing areas producing 90% of total output.

Thailand's wintering dry season usually starts in late Feb and runs through Apr. In the wintering season, rubber trees shed their leaves and stop producing latex.

Indonesia, the second biggest producer, and Malaysia, the third, are having longer rainy seasons, disrupting tapping.

 

The best case scenario I can see is GMG creeping up just below the uptrend line.

 

Grossly overbought. Any possible proposal has been factored in. Good level to take profit.

 

Hi ilovebull. Another uptrend line pointed to a resistance of around $0.235. TA is updated here.

 

wow, Nostradamus is really good. Spot on !!! Too bad I didnt enter thinking that the price is already nearly its one year high...

 

 

GMG said that shareholders will note that the Company receives proposals from time to time and the Company will engage in discussions with these proposers where there is potential for business development. The Board would like to inform Shareholders that the Company is presently in discussion with a company with the view to creating further opportunities for business development for the Company. Such discussions are currently at a preliminary stage and there is no certainty that any possible business development opportunity, proposal or transaction will result from such discussions.

The Company will make an announcement at the relevant time should circumstances merit such an announcement.

In the meantime, Shareholders are advised to exercise caution in relation to trading in their Shares.

300 yen/kg resistance broken.

Rubber futures on TOCOM gathered steam on broad buying on the back of gains in oil and precious metals futures on Mon. The benchmark, most distant Oct '08 contract traded at 300.1 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, up 5.7 yen from Fri. The contract rewrote its listing-to-date high at 301.5 yen in the morning.

Oil hit a new record near US$120 a barrel on Mon, boosted by a string of bullish factors that include a UK refinery strike and disruptions to Nigeria's output that highlight the market's anxieties over threats to supply.

 

thks.

 

Although RSI is overbought, it still has a bit more upside to around $0.22. Full TA here.

 

Tokyo rubber futures rose a touch on bargain hunting on Fri as a soft Japanese yen encouraged buying, but weaker oil prices still weighed. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Oct delivery rose 0.3 yen to end at 293.6 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time.

"Actually, TOCOM prices should rise higher, but oil prices prevent them from rising significantly," a dealer said.

In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted higher, backed by rising TOCOM and limited supply in key producing countries.

Trade was slow ahead of the weekend, with most buyers, including the world's top consumer China, waiting to buy on price dips.

"Only major tyremakers bought Malaysian SMR20 and Indonesia SIR20 because prices were attractive compared to Thai RSS3," an Indonesian trader said.

Physical prices were expected to remain firm next week due to limited supply as unseasonal rains disrupted tapping in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

 

Oil prices had continued to rise since my prediction on 19/2. Slightly more than 2 months later, GMG reached my target. My prediction has been proven correct. I don't make any predictions if I think that I'll be wrong. I didn't call myself Nostradamus for nothing.

Nostradamus      ( Date: 19-Feb-2008 22:53) Posted: GMG looks set to reach or break $0.18. Tokyo rubber futures jumped more than 2% to an 8-month high on Tue as higher energy prices and a weak Japanese yen encouraged buying, pushing the key contract above the psychological level of 310 yen. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Jul delivery rose 6.7 yen to end at 315 yen per kg, the highest since Jun 12 '06. Lingering supply concerns provided some support, with production in Thailand expected to fall as farmers have stopped tapping during the dry winter season, when trees shed their leaves and stop producing latex. Similar dry-season concerns have hit supply in Malaysia. In Indonesia, the problem was too much rain. "Strong oil prices and other positive factors are supporting rubber, but there are uncertainties about the outlook for the market," said Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at Ace Koeki in Tokyo. "There are concerns about supplies, but at the same time we are not sure demand from consumers like China will stay strong because we are seeing inventories piling up there," he said. TOCOM rubber prices could move toward the 27-year high of 324.5 yen -- a high reached on Jun 13 '06 -- if there was a sustained break above 313.3 yen, traders said, citing technical charts. TOCOM may find psychological resistance at 320 yen in the short term, although a breach of that level will likely pave the way for further strong gains in the weeks ahead, said a trader in Tokyo. Rubber received support as the yen weakened and U.S. crude oil futures steadied above US$96 a barrel on Tue. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted higher, supported by limited supply and rising Tokyo futures. Trading was thin with only a few tyremakers seeking rubber to replenish falling stocks, while China, the world's biggest buyer, was still waiting for prices to drop, traders said. "Only a few buyers kept buying, but they bought small lots," a Malaysian trader said. Asian cash rubber prices were higher in active trade with consumers keen to secure stocks despite the current highs, amid growing sentiment that prices will move higher in the coming weeks, traders said. "Consumers don't particularly want to buy at these levels, and they have been holding off in the hope of a correction. But with Tocom looking bullish and production likely to fall further in the weeks ahead as wintering takes hold, we're likely to see physical prices supported around these levels," said a trader in Singapore.

 

GMG has reached or break $0.18 like I predicted. It has surged above $0.18 to $0.195. I've been proven right on Wilmar and GMG. You've been proven wrong on these 2 counters. You just want to oppose me, right? Your comments are all without basis. I'm the one having the last laugh. What do you have to say now?

Stockking      ( Date: 03-Mar-2008 11:39) Posted: "GMG looks set to reach or break $0.18."......guess this will take sometime loh...market need time to get over the -44.9% drop in profit inspite of all those good news being reported in NR price!!

 

GMG today is up 0.015 to 0.19, one of the top volume today.

 

Tokyo rubber futures were mostly lower on Thu morning as falls in crude oil prices, weakness in other yen-denominated commodities and bearish technical signals induced selling from funds. However, rubber futures regained strength on renewed buying in the afternoon, swinging back into plus territory. The previous benchmark Sep contract rose 2 yen to finish at 291.7 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time. The newly listed Oct contract on TOCOM rose 5 yen up from its opening price to end at 292.1 yen per kg.

In the physical market, rubber prices slipped, but traders said prices were unlikely to fall sharply due to continued limited supply and strong demand.

"Major tyre makers continued buying despite high prices," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said.

 

Tokyo rubber futures ended higher on Wed, supported by firm oil prices and limited supply, but gains were capped by profit taking. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Sep delivery rose 2.5 yen, or 0.9%, to settle at 289.7 yen (US$2.81) per kg. It rose more than 1 % to an intraday high of 290.4 yen before profit taking set in.

TOCOM rubber was expected to rise further on Thursday as strong oil prices and limited supply provided support, dealers said.

"I think TOCOM could break above 290 yen again to next resistance of 295 yen and 300 yen respectively," one dealer said.

U.S. crude oil soared to US$119.90 per barrel, although a slightly firmer yen was likely to weigh on the Tokyo market.

Higher oil prices encourage the use of NR instead of a petroleum-based SR and usually encourage players to take speculative buying on TOCOM rubber.

In the physical market, rubber prices were higher, in line with rising TOCOM.

Trading was active with major tyremakers buying several grades of rubber, but China was largely absent, traders said.

"They bought only small lots because the prices were quite high," a Malaysian trader said.

Physical prices were expected to remain firm over the next few weeks, they said.

Farmers in Thailand have resumed tapping but physical prices were not expected to drop immediately because tapping in some areas was disrupted by unseasonal rains, traders said.