Neptune Orient L Rg   

NOL

maybe not ready to move up at the moment

harley22ez      ( Date: 30-Nov-2012 19:43) Posted: LAST week oso like this, nice upward trend then kanna sia! jia lat!!! wen is bb coming to assistance? sgng123      ( Date: 30-Nov-2012 17:23) Posted: HUGE volume of 55mil done after closing at 1.09..... Everything is fine then closing. this kind of suck, ambush after closing.

 

LAST week oso like this, nice upward trend then kanna sia! jia lat!!! wen is bb coming to assistance?

sgng123      ( Date: 30-Nov-2012 17:23) Posted: HUGE volume of 55mil done after closing at 1.09..... Everything is fine then closing. this kind of suck, ambush after closing.

 

55mil nol traded at 1.09 after bell close

47mil cosco traded at 0.89 after bell close

it all 1 big slice of share, definely not pp shorting it, high chance is some share holder unloading. IT very scaring lol 2% of share issued trade after bell close.

 

Almost spilled my coffee. 55mil shares... That's some scary shit man.

 

might be brokerage selling shares to someone in 1 big block at a discount. There been some heat earlier in shares as the buyer and seller pos is very high in the 1-2 mil block.

 

what a pump and dump!

sgng123      ( Date: 30-Nov-2012 17:23) Posted: HUGE volume of 55mil done after closing at 1.09..... Everything is fine then closing. this kind of suck, ambush after closing.

 

HUGE volume of 55mil done after closing at 1.09..... Everything is fine then closing. this kind of suck, ambush after closing.

 

Very strong buy position today. Trade volume hit 12mil.  Monitor  till next week if trend remain, BB might be positioning .

 

Like i mentioned in previous post, don go in yet wait for fiscal cliff to be overcome and wait for BB to vest.

Rate would keep dropping due to season factor, don worry too much. Currently rate on US is 50% higher compare to 2011

Short sellers in market till fiscal cliff is resolved, buy/sell pos is all short sellers so don go in yet. It is short seller VS short seller for now.

davidscs      ( Date: 29-Nov-2012 17:26) Posted: Trade NOL with great care.Things are still moving south..... should visit now in early Jan 2013. Suggest to stay clear and watch firsst, 23th Nov- The SCFI North Europe index tumbled nearly 12 percent to $1,079 per TEU from $1,225 last week. Since soaring more than 38 percent in two weeks in early November to $1,491 around a planned rate increase, the spot level has dropped  more than 27 percent in the past three weeks. The Asia-Med trade has faired worse, dropping another 8.2 percent this week to $786 per TEU. The index has now dropped 38 percent in the past four weeks and has dropped 56 percent since June, when the Med index stood at $1,812 TEUs. U.S. West Coast rates weakened further as well, falling 6.1 percent this week to $2,089 per FEU. West Coast rates have fallen 23 percent since late September, prompting carriers in the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement to postpone a planned $400 per FEU general rate increase to the West Coast from Dec. 1 to Dec. 15. SCFI rates to the U.S. East Coast reflected the general weakness, dropping 3.1 percent to $3,146 per FEU. East Coast rates have dropped roughly 20 percent since mid-September. According to Clarksons, “Although most of the talk this week has been about December GRIs, the spot market does not seem to be listening. The four main routes have shed more value, with Europe maintaining the steeper rate of decline and the two US trades pushing into 3-figure losses.” The direction of the SCFI this week “would seem to suggest that utilization levels are under pressure at the current levels of supply.” " The SCFI  today shows spot rates ex China are under significant pressure," Clarksons said. " The seasonal slowdown in cargo volumes appears to be outpacing any winter capacity cuts made on these mainline trades and utilization levels are suffering as a result."

 

Trade NOL with great care.Things are still moving south..... should visit now in early Jan 2013. Suggest to stay clear and watch firsst,

23th Nov- The SCFI North Europe index tumbled nearly 12 percent to $1,079 per TEU from $1,225 last week. Since soaring more than 38 percent in two weeks in early November to $1,491 around a planned rate increase, the spot level has dropped  more than 27 percent in the past three weeks.

The Asia-Med trade has faired worse, dropping another 8.2 percent this week to $786 per TEU. The index has now dropped 38 percent in the past four weeks and has dropped 56 percent since June, when the Med index stood at $1,812 TEUs.

U.S. West Coast rates weakened further as well, falling 6.1 percent this week to $2,089 per FEU. West Coast rates have fallen 23 percent since late September, prompting carriers in the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement to postpone a planned $400 per FEU general rate increase to the West Coast from Dec. 1 to Dec. 15. SCFI rates to the U.S. East Coast reflected the general weakness, dropping 3.1 percent to $3,146 per FEU. East Coast rates have dropped roughly 20 percent since mid-September.

According to Clarksons, “Although most of the talk this week has been about December GRIs, the spot market does not seem to be listening. The four main routes have shed more value, with Europe maintaining the steeper rate of decline and the two US trades pushing into 3-figure losses.” The direction of the SCFI this week “would seem to suggest that utilization levels are under pressure at the current levels of supply.”

" The SCFI  today shows spot rates ex China are under significant pressure," Clarksons said. " The seasonal slowdown in cargo volumes appears to be outpacing any winter capacity cuts made on these mainline trades and utilization levels are suffering as a result."  

 

Those 24 ships is for fleet renewal , 29 chartered ships would be retired. fleet size might actually shrink for nol ( 3Q capacity shrink).

When those 24 ships replaced those expensive chartered ships, more cost saving for  nol due to lower operating expense.

Don worry too much about more ships coming in 2013 as those are for fleet renewal not fleet expansion.

US fiscal cliff and bunker fuel movement is all that matter for now, Asia- europe freight rate would be more or less similiar to 2012 level as mersk

already indicated no interest in starting a rate war ( pull fund to oil/port business).

Today Nol share price recover to 1.13,  Dec going to  see lot of price movement up and down from fiscal cliff news. 

 

24 new ships from now till 2014. All above 8000 teu. Very worrying. 20% Revenue from Asia Europe is substantial make no mistake about that. In my view transpacific almost a constant. The variable is Asia Europe.

 

Those large ships difficult to deploy in US cos most of US port is still in the  1980 meaning port not deep enough / crane not high enough.

American not interested in maintaining/ update their infrastucture as long it work, don fix it.

US import/export trade not balance = too heavy on import low on export, having big ships would be difficult to fill cargo on return route to china.

Very sadly only small / medium size ship make it economical to use in US trade lane...explain why few big ships going to US for economical reason.

Anyway bunker price had come down 8% from 3Q level and stabilised. More GRI for both US and Europe coming on Dec and Jan,  carriers would get most of it through. Then we see the pattern of rate dropping and  new GRI coming rinise and repeat. I bet loft of carriers would rather park their ships in the  sea then suffer a loss lol. For nol , US trade = 50% revenue + profit so US fiscal cliff is biggest threat . Europe = 20%  Rest = 30%

pseudo      ( Date: 28-Nov-2012 14:16) Posted: Gri may be implemented. But starting from a very low base since rates are driven down substantially for past few weeks. Only reprieve would be from transpacific contracts in place. Do note that the new 7 vessels are for Asia Europe trade with many more of such vessels coming online next year. These "most efficient" vessels in nol fleet can only deploy on money losing Asia europe lane due to their size. Compare to 3q, which enjoyed low bunker fuel cost and year high shipping rates, nol has only made 50mil. Many more gri has to be implemented for a break even. My two cents.

 

 

sgng123      ( Date: 28-Nov-2012 16:37) Posted: nol  business is mostly 12 month yearly fixed rate contract, contract renew every year on apr-may. Asia - europe contract is fixed at 2750 ( 2Q result info) for the whole year, it might drop a bit due to bunker fuel adjustment .. All the GRI just pushed up the spot rate ( future contract by forwarder/middle man), spot rate account for only 10% of cargo where 90% is all on fixed rate.  Focus is that GRI all can be implemented and going into 2013, high chance every month 1 GRI so carrier can get a higher fixed rate on their yearly contract. Up to now, GRI implementation is successful with like 50%-80% going through. Olam this month is going to slaughter mode, it share price gona take a big kick with muddy water friends short selling it.

 

nol  business is mostly 12 month yearly fixed rate contract, contract renew every year on apr-may. Asia - europe contract is fixed at 2750 ( 2Q result info) for the whole year, it might drop a bit due to bunker fuel adjustment .. All the GRI just pushed up the spot rate ( future contract by forwarder/middle man), spot rate account for only 10% of cargo where 90% is all on fixed rate.  Focus is that GRI all can be implemented and going into 2013, high chance every month 1 GRI so carrier can get a higher fixed rate on their yearly contract. Up to now, GRI implementation is successful with like 50%-80% going through.

Olam this month is going to slaughter mode, it share price gona take a big kick with muddy water friends short selling it.

 

Gri may be implemented. But starting from a very low base since rates are driven down substantially for past few weeks. Only reprieve would be from transpacific contracts in place. Do note that the new 7 vessels are for Asia Europe trade with many more of such vessels coming online next year. These "most efficient" vessels in nol fleet can only deploy on money losing Asia europe lane due to their size.

Compare to 3q, which enjoyed low bunker fuel cost and year high shipping rates, nol has only made 50mil.

Many more gri has to be implemented for a break even.

My two cents.

 

Greek crisis temp lay down to rest for a few months, now only US fiscal cliff left standing.

Hope obama this time round manage to seal a compromise then we off to a christmas / new year relief rally.

Bunker price remain stable at 630 and big GRI on dec all pointing to good start for nol in 2013

 

firm gri across the board for usa trade.nol will achieve maximum profit levels!!!

 

 

http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/apl/apl-sets-peak-season-surcharges-india-us-trades_20121119.html

Weird APL is setting a peak season surcharge on US route on dec 15.

There seem to be a delay in implementing the surcharge, very high chance carriers pushing it to 1Q 13 due to CNY closure to justify it.

Anyone in shipping can check it out very strange cos normally surcharge is 3Q and part of 4Q.

If carriers push it to 1Q 13, NOL building profit 196M + peak surcharge + cost saving = OMG 1Q lol. scheming nol ceo ex army col.

 

NOL in 3Q said they expected a loss for the year. if US peak session surchurge is implement in 4Q, a smaller loss of < 50m is expected.

IF they postpone it to1Q 2013, then a loss of ~200m is expected. the nol building sale completed in feb 13 so result would not be counted in 4Q 12 but will be reflected in 1Q 13. US fiscal cliff is still biggest threat, if resolved then it strong wind pushing nol to new height.

khng2012      ( Date: 24-Nov-2012 18:25) Posted: Do you think the possibility of turn over in final year result? Some company they recognize some revenue and profit to early or late quarter and try to maintain or push up their share price during Window dressing period Feb to April. Reason, the company will grant their management or staff with share as bonus. Pushing share price up seem like giving a lot of bonus to them and retain them in the company. My previous company always do this and we are so happy to take the bonus and stay longer. Till Sept, share price drop drop and pick up again in year end to cheer us for another batch of share. But the job no life and need to work 6 to 7 days. I quit at the end. sgng123      ( Date: 24-Nov-2012 16:12) Posted: Anyone in shipping industry know anything about the peak session surcharge for US route. Carriers look like never implemented it during 3Q and checking NOL 3Q result, the revenue/volume is unchanged compared to 2Q. Very weird as US trade is strong this year and TSA put a recommended 500 surcharge on it. I check with other carriers 3Q results and same no mention of US peak session surcharge.