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master krisluke,
personally i think SSE will go flat the opening as there's no clear up or down sign since last week HSI closed about 200 pts up from the previous week?
as far as i know, they are going to announce china inflation this coming week..
krisluke ( Date: 08-Oct-2011 14:02) Posted:
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let's hope $3.35 will be happily support if hsi " scrumble" to profit taking.
the real test will be 9 day ema and 14 ema retest the 20 day sma.
All eye will be on china market, monday.
btw, any important economic data out from the east ? ??
bryansng ( Date: 08-Oct-2011 14:56) Posted:
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May go down on monday as it did not break the mid tier of bollinger band and to me its still a down trend.
krisluke ( Date: 08-Oct-2011 14:05) Posted:
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i share chart but not indicator... ...
trend vs indicator.
any one wish to share the opinion here .
I read the news that keppelcorp just has one options exercise yesterday ... ...
STXosv also got news abt one mystery contracts announced yesterday too.... ....
YZJ is a gone case because many many abt china economic outlook is bad ... ...
Sembmar may follow suit on the above two onli.
All Eyes will be on SSE, monday... .....
Ask any technical trader and he or she will tell you that the right indicator is needed to effectively determine a change of course in a stocks' price patterns. But anything that one " right" indicator can do to help a trader, two complimentary indicators can do better. This article aims to encourage traders to look for and identify a simultaneous bullish MACD crossover along with a bullish stochastic crossover and then use this as the entry point to trade.
Pairing the Stochastic and MACD
Looking for two popular indicators that work well together resulted in this pairing of the stochastic oscillator and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). This team works because the stochastic is comparing a stock's closing price to its price range over a certain period of time, while the MACD is the formation of two moving averages diverging from and converging with each other. This dynamic combination is highly effective if used to its fullest potential. (For background reading on each of these indicators, see Getting To Know Oscillators: Stochastics and A Primer On The MACD.)
Working the Stochastic
There are two components to the stochastic oscillator: the %K and the %D. The %K is the main line indicating the number of time periods, and the %D is the moving average of the %K.
Understanding how the stochastic is formed is one thing, but knowing how it will react in different situations is more important. For instance:
- Common triggers occur when the %K line drops below 20 - the stock is considered oversold, and it is a buying signal.
- If the %K peaks just below 100, then heads downward, the stock should be sold before that value drops below 80.
- Generally, if the %K value rises above the %D, then a buy signal is indicated by this crossover, provided the values are under 80. If they are above this value, the security is considered overbought.
Working the MACD
As a versatile trading tool that can reveal price momentum, the MACD is also useful in the identification of price trend and direction. The MACD indicator has enough strength to stand alone, but its predictive function is not absolute. Used with another indicator, the MACD can really ramp up the trader's advantage. (Learn more about momentum trading in Momentum Trading With Discipline.)
If a trader needs to determine trend strength and direction of a stock, overlaying its moving average lines onto the MACD histogram is very useful. The MACD can also be viewed as a histogram alone. (Learn more in An Introduction To The MACD Histogram.)
MACD Calculation
To bring in this oscillating indicator that fluctuates above and below zero, a simple MACD calculation is required. By subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of a security's price from a 12-day moving average of its price, an oscillating indicator value comes into play. Once a trigger line (the nine-day EMA) is added, the comparison of the two creates a trading picture. If the MACD value is higher than the nine-day
It's helpful to note that there are a few well-known ways to use the MACD:
- Foremost is the watching for divergences or a crossover of the center line of the histogram the MACD illustrates buy opportunities above zero and sell opportunities below.
- Another is noting the moving average line crossovers and their relationship to the center line. (For more, see Trading The MACD Divergence.)
Identifying and Integrating Bullish Crossovers
To be able to establish how to integrate a bullish MACD crossover and a bullish stochastic crossover into a trend-confirmation strategy, the word " bullish" needs to be explained. In the simplest of terms, " bullish" refers to a strong signal for continuously rising prices. A bullish signal is what happens when a faster moving average crosses up over a slower moving average, creating market momentum and suggesting further price increases.
- In the case of a bullish MACD, this will occur when the histogram value is above the equilibrium line, and also when the MACD line is of a greater value than the nine-day
EMA , also called the " MACD signal line." - The stochastic's bullish divergence occurs when %K value passes the %D, confirming a likely price turnaround.
Crossovers In Action: Genesee & Wyoming Inc. (NYSE:GWR)
Below is an example of how and when to use a stochastic and MACD double cross.
 |
| Figure 1 |
| Source: StockCharts.com |
Note the green lines that show when these two indicators moved in sync and the near-perfect cross shown at the right-hand side of the chart.
You may notice that there are a couple of instances when the MACD and the stochastics are close to crossing simultaneously - January 2008, mid-March and mid-April, for example. It even looks like they did cross at the same time on a chart of this size, but when you take a closer look, you'll find that they did not actually cross within two days of each other, which was the criterion for setting up this scan. You may want to change the criteria so that you include crosses that occur within a wider time frame, so that you can capture moves like the ones shown below.
It's important to understand that changing the settings parameters can help produce a prolonged trendline, which helps a trader avoid a whipsaw. This is accomplished by using higher values in the interval/time-period settings. This is commonly referred to as " smoothing things out." Active traders, of course, use much shorter time frames in their indicator settings and would reference a five-day chart instead of one with months or years of price history.
The Strategy
First, look for the bullish crossovers to occur within two days of each other. Keep in mind that when applying the stochastic and MACD double-cross strategy, ideally the crossover occurs below the 50 line on the stochastic to catch a longer price move. And preferably, you want the histogram value to be or move higher than zero within two days of placing your trade.
Also note that the MACD must cross slightly after the stochastic, as the alternative could create a false indication of the price trend or place you in sideways trend.
Finally, it is safer to trade stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages, but it is not an absolute necessity.
The Advantage
This strategy gives traders an opportunity to hold out for a better entry point on uptrending stock or to be surer that any downtrend is truly reversing itself when bottom-fishing for long-term holds. This strategy can be turned into a scan where charting software permits.
The Disadvantage
With every advantage that any strategy presents, there is always a disadvantage to the technique. Because the stock generally takes a longer time to line up in the best buying position, the actual trading of the stock occurs less frequently, so you may need a larger basket of stocks to watch.
Trick of the Trade
The stochastic and MACD double cross allows for the trader to change the intervals, finding optimal and consistent entry points. This way it can be adjusted for the needs of both active traders and investors. Experiment with both indicator intervals and you will see how the crossovers will line up differently, and then choose the number of days that work best for your trading style. You may also want to add an RSI indicator into the mix, just for fun. (Read Ride The RSI Rollercoaster for more on this indicator.)
Conclusion
Separately, the stochastic oscillator and MACD function on different technical premises and work alone. Compared to the stochastic, which ignores market jolts, the MACD is a more reliable option as a sole trading indicator. However, just like two heads, two indicators are usually better than one! The stochastic and MACD are an ideal pairing and can provide for an enhanced and more effective trading experience.
For further reading on using the stochastic oscillator and MACD together, see Combined Forces Power Snap Strategy.
| Gold Prices Gain on Week, Central Banks Must " Create and Inject Money" to stop " Worst Ever Crisis" |  |
 |
| Analysis | Commodity Market Commentaries | Written by BullionVault | Fri Oct 07 11 09:39 ET |
|
Gold Prices jumped 0.5% to $1661 per ounce - within 1% of this week's high - immediately following news of better-than-expected US jobs data on Friday. The Gold Price did however hand back all its gains within half an hour. Stock markets and industrial commodities also rallied on the release of US nonfarm payrolls, which showed 103,000 nonagricultural jobs were created last month. Last month's report showed no jobs were added in August - though this has now been revised up to 57,000. US unemployment remains at 9.1%, the report says. " Long-term support for gold and silver from continued concerns over a possible US recession remains in place," reckons Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank. " In addition, Eurozone debt problems will also continue to remain a focus, and consequently benefit precious metals." Going into the weekend, Gold Prices are up more than 1.5% and heading for their first weekly gain in five weeks. Silver Prices also spiked following the nonfarms release, before they too fell, dropping back towards $32 per ounce for a weekly gain so far of around 6.7%. " Gold and silver are our top commodity picks heading into 2012," says a report from Morgan Stanley out today. " Gold, and silver to a much lesser extent, are viewed as safe havens and store of value as well as the closest thing to a global reserve currency." The British government fears it may have to pump more money into Royal Bank of Scotland - which received the world's largest bailout three years ago at £45 billion - as part of a Europe-wide move to recapitalize the banking sector, according to a front page story in today's Financial Times. RBS has sought to play down the story, telling news agency Reuters that its exposures to Greek debt " are modest relative to core Tier 1 capital" . Ratings agency Moody's meantime announced Friday it has downgraded RBS by two notches from Aa3 to A2. Moody's has also downgraded another eleven UK financial institutions, including Lloyds TSB, Santander UK, Co-Operative Bank and Nationwide Building Society. " The downgrades do not reflect a deterioration in the financial strength of the banking system or that of the government," said a Moody's statement. " The right thing at present is to create some more money to inject into the economy," said Bank of England governor Mervyn King yesterday, following the Bank's decision to expand its quantitative easing program by £75 billion. " This is the most serious financial crisis we've seen at least since the 1930s, if not ever." Over in Europe, the process of approving the EU agreement of July 21 - which includes granting the European Financial Stability Facility powers to recapitalize banks - goes on. The Netherlands yesterday approved the agreement, while in Slovakia meantime the Freedom and Solidarity party has tabled a compromise proposal to its three ruling coalition partners that a committee be set up to decide how EFSF funds would be used in the country. The European Central Bank's Governing Council meantime " does not consider it would be appropriate that the central bank would leverage the EFSF," outgoing ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday. The central bank did say it will launch a new €40 billion asset purchase program. The program will target covered bonds - debt back by the cash flow of underlying investments, adding further details will emerge next month. The ECB resisted calls for an interest rate cut, leaving its rate at 1.5%. " But [Trichet] did do what was necessary to avoid a counter-productive market response," notes the FT's Lex column. " " By shifting the ECB's language to say that policy was no longer 'accommodative', he made it easier for his successor, Mario Draghi, to cut." " There has been a recent shift in central banking across the world," adds Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. " In the West toward easing and in emerging markets putting tightening on hold with an option to ease if necessary." In New York, meantime, the Occupy Wall Street protest - which has seen demonstrations against US banking sector bailouts - nears the end of its third week. The protest - which has drawn media comparisons to the Arab Spring - has steadily grown since September 17, when a handful of protesters pitched a tent outside the New York Stock Exchange, and has spread to other US cities. " The government's doing the work for us," said one protester when asked to explain the movement's growth. " All they have to do is cut some more people's insurance and unemployment benefits and it won't be a bunch of 20-year-old white college students out here." The State Bank of Vietnam meantime has said a number of banks can reopen gold trading accounts on the international market, news agency Reuters reports. The SBV banned international gold dealing 15 months ago in an effort to close the gap between global and domestic Gold Prices. http://www.bullionvault.com Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure (c) BullionVault 2008 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events - and must be verified elsewhere - should you choose to act on it. |
| Gold Prices Gain on Week, Central Banks Must " Create and Inject Money" to stop " Worst Ever Crisis" | |
|
| Analysis | Commodity Market Commentaries | Written by BullionVault | Fri Oct 07 11 09:39 ET |
|
Gold Prices jumped 0.5% to $1661 per ounce - within 1% of this week's high - immediately following news of better-than-expected US jobs data on Friday. The Gold Price did however hand back all its gains within half an hour. Stock markets and industrial commodities also rallied on the release of US nonfarm payrolls, which showed 103,000 nonagricultural jobs were created last month. Last month's report showed no jobs were added in August - though this has now been revised up to 57,000. US unemployment remains at 9.1%, the report says. " Long-term support for gold and silver from continued concerns over a possible US recession remains in place," reckons Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank. " In addition, Eurozone debt problems will also continue to remain a focus, and consequently benefit precious metals." Going into the weekend, Gold Prices are up more than 1.5% and heading for their first weekly gain in five weeks. Silver Prices also spiked following the nonfarms release, before they too fell, dropping back towards $32 per ounce for a weekly gain so far of around 6.7%. " Gold and silver are our top commodity picks heading into 2012," says a report from Morgan Stanley out today. " Gold, and silver to a much lesser extent, are viewed as safe havens and store of value as well as the closest thing to a global reserve currency." The British government fears it may have to pump more money into Royal Bank of Scotland - which received the world's largest bailout three years ago at £45 billion - as part of a Europe-wide move to recapitalize the banking sector, according to a front page story in today's Financial Times. RBS has sought to play down the story, telling news agency Reuters that its exposures to Greek debt " are modest relative to core Tier 1 capital" . Ratings agency Moody's meantime announced Friday it has downgraded RBS by two notches from Aa3 to A2. Moody's has also downgraded another eleven UK financial institutions, including Lloyds TSB, Santander UK, Co-Operative Bank and Nationwide Building Society. " The downgrades do not reflect a deterioration in the financial strength of the banking system or that of the government," said a Moody's statement. " The right thing at present is to create some more money to inject into the economy," said Bank of England governor Mervyn King yesterday, following the Bank's decision to expand its quantitative easing program by £75 billion. " This is the most serious financial crisis we've seen at least since the 1930s, if not ever." Over in Europe, the process of approving the EU agreement of July 21 - which includes granting the European Financial Stability Facility powers to recapitalize banks - goes on. The Netherlands yesterday approved the agreement, while in Slovakia meantime the Freedom and Solidarity party has tabled a compromise proposal to its three ruling coalition partners that a committee be set up to decide how EFSF funds would be used in the country. The European Central Bank's Governing Council meantime " does not consider it would be appropriate that the central bank would leverage the EFSF," outgoing ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday. The central bank did say it will launch a new €40 billion asset purchase program. The program will target covered bonds - debt back by the cash flow of underlying investments, adding further details will emerge next month. The ECB resisted calls for an interest rate cut, leaving its rate at 1.5%. " But [Trichet] did do what was necessary to avoid a counter-productive market response," notes the FT's Lex column. " " By shifting the ECB's language to say that policy was no longer 'accommodative', he made it easier for his successor, Mario Draghi, to cut." " There has been a recent shift in central banking across the world," adds Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. " In the West toward easing and in emerging markets putting tightening on hold with an option to ease if necessary." In New York, meantime, the Occupy Wall Street protest - which has seen demonstrations against US banking sector bailouts - nears the end of its third week. The protest - which has drawn media comparisons to the Arab Spring - has steadily grown since September 17, when a handful of protesters pitched a tent outside the New York Stock Exchange, and has spread to other US cities. " The government's doing the work for us," said one protester when asked to explain the movement's growth. " All they have to do is cut some more people's insurance and unemployment benefits and it won't be a bunch of 20-year-old white college students out here." The State Bank of Vietnam meantime has said a number of banks can reopen gold trading accounts on the international market, news agency Reuters reports. The SBV banned international gold dealing 15 months ago in an effort to close the gap between global and domestic Gold Prices. http://www.bullionvault.com Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure (c) BullionVault 2008 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events - and must be verified elsewhere - should you choose to act on it. |
Gold Prices jumped 0.5% to $1661 per ounce - within 1% of this week's high - immediately following news of better-than-expected US jobs data on Friday. The Gold Price did however hand back all its gains within half an hour.
Stock markets and industrial commodities also rallied on the release of US nonfarm payrolls, which showed 103,000 nonagricultural jobs were created last month. Last month's report showed no jobs were added in August - though this has now been revised up to 57,000.
US unemployment remains at 9.1%, the report says.
" Long-term support for gold and silver from continued concerns over a possible US recession remains in place," reckons Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.
" In addition, Eurozone debt problems will also continue to remain a focus, and consequently benefit precious metals."
Going into the weekend, Gold Prices are up more than 1.5% and heading for their first weekly gain in five weeks.
Silver Prices also spiked following the nonfarms release, before they too fell, dropping back towards $32 per ounce for a weekly gain so far of around 6.7%.
" Gold and silver are our top commodity picks heading into 2012," says a report from Morgan Stanley out today.
" Gold, and silver to a much lesser extent, are viewed as safe havens and store of value as well as the closest thing to a global reserve currency."
The British government fears it may have to pump more money into Royal Bank of Scotland - which received the world's largest bailout three years ago at £45 billion - as part of a Europe-wide move to recapitalize the banking sector, according to a front page story in today's Financial Times.
RBS has sought to play down the story, telling news agency Reuters that its exposures to Greek debt " are modest relative to core Tier 1 capital" .
Ratings agency Moody's meantime announced Friday it has downgraded RBS by two notches from Aa3 to A2. Moody's has also downgraded another eleven UK financial institutions, including Lloyds TSB, Santander UK, Co-Operative Bank and Nationwide Building Society.
" The downgrades do not reflect a deterioration in the financial strength of the banking system or that of the government," said a Moody's statement.
" The right thing at present is to create some more money to inject into the economy," said Bank of England governor Mervyn King yesterday, following the Bank's decision to expand its quantitative easing program by £75 billion.
" This is the most serious financial crisis we've seen at least since the 1930s, if not ever."
Over in Europe, the process of approving the EU agreement of July 21 - which includes granting the European Financial Stability Facility powers to recapitalize banks - goes on.
The Netherlands yesterday approved the agreement, while in Slovakia meantime the Freedom and Solidarity party has tabled a compromise proposal to its three ruling coalition partners that a committee be set up to decide how EFSF funds would be used in the country.
The European Central Bank's Governing Council meantime " does not consider it would be appropriate that the central bank would leverage the EFSF," outgoing ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday.
The central bank did say it will launch a new €40 billion asset purchase program. The program will target covered bonds - debt back by the cash flow of underlying investments, adding further details will emerge next month.
The ECB resisted calls for an interest rate cut, leaving its rate at 1.5%.
" But [Trichet] did do what was necessary to avoid a counter-productive market response," notes the FT's Lex column.
" " By shifting the ECB's language to say that policy was no longer 'accommodative', he made it easier for his successor, Mario Draghi, to cut."
" There has been a recent shift in central banking across the world," adds Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London.
" In the West toward easing and in emerging markets putting tightening on hold with an option to ease if necessary."
In New York, meantime, the Occupy Wall Street protest - which has seen demonstrations against US banking sector bailouts - nears the end of its third week.
The protest - which has drawn media comparisons to the Arab Spring - has steadily grown since September 17, when a handful of protesters pitched a tent outside the New York Stock Exchange, and has spread to other US cities.
" The government's doing the work for us," said one protester when asked to explain the movement's growth.
" All they have to do is cut some more people's insurance and unemployment benefits and it won't be a bunch of 20-year-old white college students out here."
The State Bank of Vietnam meantime has said a number of banks can reopen gold trading accounts on the international market, news agency Reuters reports.
The SBV banned international gold dealing 15 months ago in an effort to close the gap between global and domestic Gold Prices.
http://www.bullionvault.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
(c) BullionVault 2008 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events - and must be verified elsewhere - should you choose to act on it.
The Techical design looks Special.
Silver
Over hourly studies, the metal was able to incline and this upside action was confirmed through stability above 31.45. The bullishness could extend during the session today, while silver may attempt to reach 33.15-65 again. But, stability below 30.65, could negate the upside movement significantly.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 30.30 and key resistance now at 34.40
The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact.
Support: 31.85, 31.30, 31.05, 30.65, 30.30
Resistance: 32.95, 33.15, 33.65, 34.40, 34.65
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying silver around 32.05 and take profit in stages at (33.15 and 34.40) and stop loss below 31.05 might be appropriate
Gold
We have left the numerously discussed bigger classical picture of the double top formation over daily studies behind us-check the weekly report- and now we will focus on the hourly chart. The hourly intervals offers a possibility of forming a bearish harmonic Bat pattern with PRZ –potential reversal zones- at 1669.00 where the Fibonacci rhythmic seen on the graph could actuate the metal to move lower. The harmonic structure is well supported by the negative divergence on Stochastic. Ultimately, areas of 1702.00 should hold to protect the bearishness as if the metal succeeded in surpassing this PRZ, the way will be cleared for drawing a new PRZ at 1702.00 where a Crab pattern will appear. Anyway, let us take it step by step and focus on the current pattern to see if it will confirm the bigger daily picture or not?
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1575.00 and key resistance now at 1752.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1648.00, 1635.00, 1615.00, 1596.00, 1575.00
Resistance: 1665.00, 1687.00, 1695.00, 1702.00, 1715.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold around 1665.00 targeting 1595.00 and stop loss above 1702.00 might be appropriate.
The rally persisted, and oil printed a high of 83.01. Currently, the commodity is challenging the 78.6% Fibonacci correction and 83.00 level. Breaching the descending trend line yesterday hints more bullishness may be on the horizon , however stochastic is clearly overbought, therefore we might see downside attempts that would relief stochastic and retest the breached 61.8% Fibo Level and the breached descending trend line before resuming the upside move.
The trading range for the day is among the major support at 78.00 and the major resistance at 85.00 .
The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.
Support: 82.00, 81.15, 80.50, 79.60, 79.00
Resistance: 83.00, 84.00, 84.70, 85.15, 86.40
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying oil around 81.00 targeting 82.70 and 84.75, stop loss with four-hour closing below 80.00
