
When the analyst says HOLD, means don't sell.
When the anal*** says SELL, means don't buy.


Cosco Corporation
May 5 close: $1.12
KIM ENG RESEARCH, May 5
SECURES FPSO conversion for Modec: Cosco has announced that it has secured a contract to convert an 18-year-old Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) tanker to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel.
The customer is Mitsui Ocean Development & Engineering Co, Ltd (Modec), and the job will be carried out at its Dalian yard. Modec is a repeat customer, having previously undertaken a similar FPSO conversion, which was completed in 2007.
Estimated value around US$40 million: At the request of the customer, Cosco is not disclosing the value of the contract.
However, we understand that Modec will be supplying the equipment, and we therefore estimate the contract value to be around US$30-40 million. The conversion includes topside integration and commissioning.
The FPSO is scheduled to be re-delivered around mid-2010 and for deployment in the Petrobras’ Tupi Oil Field in water depths of over 2,000 metres.
Market conditions still difficult: This contract is positive, as there have been no significant new orders for Cosco for more than six months.
However, a recent chat with management reveals that while there have been no specific cancellations, the risk of re-negotiations and delivery delays remains, in the current tight credit market and difficult operating conditions. Cosco will be releasing its Q1 2009 results tomorrow.
We expect Cosco to post sales of around $700 million and net earnings of about $65 million for the quarter. Overall, we still expect Cosco to earn $357.4 million in FY2009 on its US$7 billion orderbook.
Raising fair value target, but ’sell’ recommendation remains: The market has been taking these risks in its stride, and the broader marine sector has seen a sharp upward re-rating in the last week, in line with the market recovery.
We are pegging Cosco’s target price to current sector price-to-book valuations of 1.6 times, or $0.81.
However, our ’sell’ recommendation is maintained, pending more evidence of a stabilisation of the business.
SELL
http://sgxresearch.com/2009/05/05/cosco-corporation-050509-kim-eng-research/


Cosco has wide institutional following and well like by fund managers as it has been listed in many Stock exchanges-it's a bell weather stocks.







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Copyright © 2007. Cosco Corporation (Singapore) Limited. All Rights Reserved.Design by InfiniteSparks |
Hi. How do you decide whether to factor XD into your charts anyway?
I can't really agree that "XD only a few cts.... don't think it matters that much.."
IMHO, the dividend of 7.7 cts is very significant, esp if we were to view it in %age terms when compared to share-price. It is quite difficult to find a peer paying same rate, eg YZJ share price ~50cts, divi 1.8cts; KepCorp share price $5.90, divi 21cts.
So, I think that by not factoring in the XD this time round, the gap appears, and this may signal bearishness. However, closing of the gap is a sign of bullishness, and in the process, a short term low is formed.
Anyway, please advise on when you decide to factor in XD into your charts? Thanks.
ozone2002 ( Date: 29-Apr-2009 19:32) Posted:
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http://www.vinamaso.net/news-events/shipping-logistics/cosco-cancels-bulker-orders.html
China Cosco Holdings is said to have cut five of its supramaxes on order at a subsidiary yard.
Shipping giant China Cosco Holdings is said to have slashed a number of supramax-bulker newbuildings on order at a domestic yard.
Market sources say the Beijing-based company has cancelled at least five of the 23 ships of 57,000 dwt on order at subsidiary Cosco Shipyard Group (CSG).
A source adds that the move is not recent. "[CSG] cancelled the ships three to four months ago, when the market was at its lowest point," he said. "The ships that have been ditched were scheduled for delivery in 2010 and 2011."
However, an official at Cosco Corp (Singapore) - which controls 51% of CSG - says the company has not received any cancellations from China Cosco Holdings and that the owner only has 18 supramaxes booked at the yard, not 23.
He adds that CSG has so far seen four newbuildings struck off its orderbook of 125 vessels and that it will delay delivery of 23 others. The official does not disclose the identity of the owners behind the cancelled vessels but India's Great Eastern Shipping is said to have axed two of the four 57,000-dwt newbuildings it has on order at CSG.
Last week, China Cosco Holdings said it was negotiating with yards to delay the delivery or cancel some of its 58 newbuildings on order. But it did not reveal what type of ships. The company's bulker orderbook comprises nine very large ore carriers (VLOCs), 10 capesizes, 16 panamaxes and 23 handymaxes.
Meanwhile, sources familiar with CSG say its shipbuilding facility in Zhoushan is falling behind on deliveries. They add that Cosco Zhoushan was supposed to hand over its first two newbuildings - a 57,000-dwt supramax bulker and a 5,200-car-equivalent-unit (ceu) pure car/truck carrier (PCTC) - to China Cosco Group in December. The bulker is said to have been delayed because of problems with its main engine, while the car carrier has proven complicated to build. Market observers say delays and order cancellations at CSG may not be a bad thing for the shiprepairer turned shipbuilder. It is said to have contracted too many vessels and overstreched its production schedule.
XD only a few cents..don't think it matters that much..
as expected gap closure to happen
DnApeh ( Date: 28-Apr-2009 21:46) Posted:
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This stock is more dangerous than Swine flu. From all angles it is not worth the market price at this moment. Take profit and run before it sinks.
Also read this if you are interested and cancellation of orders are hitting ship builders.
http://www.vinamaso.net/news-events/shipbuilding-repair/chinese-crisis.html
http://www.vinamaso.net/news-events/shipbuilding-repair/china-shipyards-face-bleak-period.html
http://www.vinamaso.net/news-events/shipping-logistics/danaos-delays-15-newbuildings.html
ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Apr-2009 21:12) Posted:
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You are entitled to the div. 0.07
lm_clifford ( Date: 28-Apr-2009 16:57) Posted:
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