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Yes, you can say that, I am bearish right now.
SPC entered my target zone briefly (6.22 - 6.38), but rebounded immediately today. I am still bearish in the overall SPC price movement...infact might hit below $6.00 in the coming days (my view only)....
Hence stayed sideline and waiting to pick up pieces later inorder to enjoy a bigger profit margin...
jkbk007 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 23:44) Posted:
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Agree with ViperG that ideas128 seems to be bias toward presenting a negative analysis.
Surely you did not miss the fact that profit from upstream was at about 40% for Q108?
Associating higher CO with lower RM seems to be the correct logic but the RM I saw is not so clear cut. At this very moment RM for jet fuel is at record high of $40 while fuel oil is at an all time low of -$25.
idesa168 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 22:30) Posted:
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paiseh if I had sent the wrong signal...I did not have the intension to encourage or discourage buying and selling....my previous posting was just my analysis about the future of SPC against high CO.
What price is a good entry. I must say any price is a good entry, depends on your time horizon. Historically most share prices will go up in years or decades...hehehe |
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now 131 per barrel, yes eventually will slide BUT tis "eventually" can be mayb one to two years frm now.....2morrow dow close mayb negtv 3 digit.....appears tempting 2 put $$$ in spc..??????????
ak view is that CO eventually will slide.
If US Fed raise rate, US$ go up, oil becomes more expensive, oil price come down and maybe SPC come down.......
Yeah, you can source for cheapest crude oil there
There is so much speculative talk that say refining margin has weaken as a result of increasing crude price. Here is the market price for 4th Jun
| Dubai (1-Mth F) |
118.83 |
-3.8 |
| US$/barrel (FOB S'pore) |
Close |
Change |
| Naphtha |
120.05 |
-1.50 |
| Jet Kerosene |
158.20 |
-3.6 |
In the past exploration is not popular because of low crude oil price. Crude oil at USD20 oil is probably during the era of cheap oil where crude oil is perceived to be in abundance. We have past the era of cheap oil where there is increasing signs of major oil field depletion. Together with the increasing demand, CO has surge and thus the increase in E&P activities as the business becomes more rewarding.
The world remains largely reliant on oil despite the surging oil price. I have not come across anyone I know who had made big changes to reduce his oil consumption. The 'pain' is there but it is very tough to change.Where is that breaking point that would result in a big collapse in consumption? Is USD200 the doomsday figure?
ozone2002 ( Date: 06-Jun-2008 08:56) Posted:
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xploration companies can make money, be it that crude oil prices r @ USD20 or 200.. as long as they can cover their capital investment ..
but @ 200 refineries have to pass on the costs to consumers...they are stuck in between, if consumers don't buy..no point having high crude oil prices.. even if u have exploration..what profits goes into exploration comes out from refining..
lookcc ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 19:51) Posted:
| crude at usd120, usd at 106 jpy n 0.65 eur.........shud b good 4 long time 4 oil exporters n oil refineries (spc included), barrring deflation/recession in usa or any occurence which cud cause global markets 2 nose-dive/crash.
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Look out for that warrant with exercise price of $6
Prefer to wait first
prob drop further... as vol too small to sustain rise..
i wun eat them, but will sell them higher after they poked my backside yday.. haha..
L..... ( Date: 06-Jun-2008 14:49) Posted:
durian eat too much v heaty, will get sick.. hahahha
neutralise by drinking some water la.. (not newater plse) |
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durian eat too much v heaty, will get sick.. hahahha
neutralise by drinking some water la.. (not newater plse)
ho say liao..
i din manage to get the biggest durian @ 6.36 but managed to get many smaller durians.. haha..
L..... ( Date: 06-Jun-2008 14:11) Posted:
durian already dropped at 6.3+
now can wait for ripen and can eat liao
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durian already dropped at 6.3+
now can wait for ripen and can eat liao
can probably find some resistance at $6.75 region
lew lian dropped liao boh?
Oil refineries hardly make any money when crude oil is at US$20 and I think it is simply because there is not much of a price gap between a cheap crude and expensive crude
if you buy CO to do refinery, the profit margin is not very great. however, if you yield you own CO, then is otherwise. currently this burger got small oil field at Indon and China. next aiming in vietnam, now is exploring, takes mths to confirm there is oil below 4150m????.
accumulation in progress..
Crude oil price always pull up oil product price with a time lag. Crude oil by itself is largely a useless product.When demand is X amount and stays the same and supply gets less every year, price will eventually go up. But demand is expected to be XX amount in the years ahead. In both ways price will still go up.
