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US market opened solid GREEN ... Dow above 12k mark up 32 points, while Nasdaq up 15 points!!

 

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock market futures on Monday headed higher after losses last week, with a cooling off of oil prices and acquisition activity helping bring bulls back into the market.

Traders also may be taking last-minute positions ahead of Tuesday's mid-term elections.

S&P 500 futures rose 4.90 points at 1,373.40 and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 6.75 points at 1,720.50. Dow industrial futures improved 33 points to 12,041.

On Friday, the Dow industrials dropped for the sixth session in a row, as a surge in long-term interest rates and a spike in oil prices overshadowed a largely positive October jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 32.5 points, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.2 points and the S&P 500 lost 3 points.

But crude oil futures dropped back below $59 a barrel in electronic trading on Monday. December crude declined 32 cents to $58.82 a barrel.

A number of Federal Reserve members are due to speak Monday, including Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pinalto and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen.

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Next week sentiments for US market ...




SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks are expected to come under pressure next week as investors await the outcome of the midterm elections and consolidate gains that have pushed the major indexes close to multiyear highs.

The voting public will have their say on Tuesday on a wide variety of issues in races around the country. Political strategists expect Democrats to gain seats in the House and Senate, but Republicans have been working to ensure that they don't lose more than the 15 House seats or six Senate seats needed to cede control of the chambers to the opposition.

"The market is still going to be choppy and on a downward note regardless of what the outcome is," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at EKN Financial Services. Success by the Republicans may lead to an upside pop in stocks in the middle of the week but "within a day or two that would be reversed," said Hyman. Read Election Trading Strategies.

The calendar of economic data will be light, with figures due on consumer credit and sentiment, trade, import prices and wholesale inventories. Most of the reports are slated for release on Thursday.

Hyman said stocks are likely to struggle as traders go back to worrying that the economy is heading for a recession after softer data this week. Last Friday's weaker-than-expected gross domestic product number set the tone for a weak performance on Wall Street, with the major indexes all losing ground.

The market found some support Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a 5 1/2 year low of 4.4%. Read Economic Report.

Treasuries reacted by falling sharply, sending yields higher. April fed funds futures now imply a 20% chance rates will be lowered to 5% from 5.25% by the Fed's policy setting body in March. Late Thursday, the market was pricing in a 56% chance of a rate cut.

"This looks to be the first full-throated pullback in the last four months," said Richard Dickson, technical analyst at Lowry Research. "We're not looking for any kind of major decline...just 2% to 3% in the major averages."

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sellers took control for continously for 6 days, if further fall below Friday low, the next major support should be at 11700.  

 

There are no good news for the US market. Bear market from here.

Computer companies are going into a price war, which will cut into bottom lines (Microsoft). Interest rate cuts for 1st quater next year which was earlier anticipated now seems unlikely. Housing slump will have ripple effect. Bad loans from bank will see a rise, etc. Oil prices expected to rise further. If the housing index is right, US will be in a recession (2 quaters of negative growth) by next year.

On the technicals, the Dow transport have not confirmed the new highs made by the Dow industrial. An ominent sign. Histrorically speaking, they should move the same way.

The Dow is making a reversal from its peak of 12000+. From now, we should not expect a rally to this level. Any important rally should rightfully be lower than the peak. If we see this, then it confirms that we are in a bear market.

The most chilling data is form the interest rate. The Fed has been keeping intetest rate stable because they are probably all eyes on the housing slump. Ben said that housing is making an important correction right now. Any increase in interest rate will surely sent the ecnonmy into rapid recession. Rate hikes next year will not be good for stocks because by then, recession will already habe taken stocks a nose dive.

And good luck to oil prices from here. Iran firing more missles for 10days, and Venezuela threathening to cut oil imports to US if it interfers with upcoming election.

Better buy some puts, buy some gold, or cash in hand. Get out of stocks for now.

 

let's not be overly pessismistic but to trade with caution. Remember the time when oil hit $78 jus a few months back and markets were stilll rallying...

The law of newton will always be present. What goes up must come down. When it's time for the market to go down eventually, even the brightest news would be futile... :)

 

Dow ended 32 pts lower. Tells you alot how the market is affected by this latest development. Big boys still controlling the indices out there. Support should still be there at the moment....

 

Oil more important than interest rates 'hype'.

5.42pm Sg local time

Iran war games in the gulf. Oil price expected to surge above $60, curtailing the bull once and for all. War games are also timed 'badly; with US elections, causing more uncertainty to stocks. A double wammy. Teasureys are up, spooking a renewed interest rate hike. Indexs such as Hang seng who bet a rate cut will take the most beating on monday (caution). 

Rising oil prices fueled by further tension in the gulf and Nigeria by terrorist attacks, coupled with a hawkish fed to curb possible inflationary pressures will send stocks falling from here. A possible peak might be reached for the time being. Furthermore, with unemployment so low, it might hit a bottom. Earnings might have also reached a peak. These factors will be priced into the market from here on, and it will be clear whether the economy will be in a recession, or even stagflation.

Whatever it is, stocks seem to be on a downward spiral for now, and probably for awhile. Whichever view you take, the economy will let you know, as in a recession, the US stock market will be the first to give signals. Now is a good time to stock up on those put warrants. It a cheap and an effective way to buy insurance against a falling market. You only lose what you pay, but the upside can be enormous due to leverage.  

The long term paints an even more bearish. Remember, beside sensitivity to interest rates and company earnings, oil price can take overweight. One never knows when another gulf war can happen. There will always be other "Saddams". A rising oil price from now will bring the whole stock market down.

There is too much hype and 'rubbish' from experts trying to bet on the interest rate. Forget the interest rate, today's world more governed by energy and oil prices. Lastly, in STI, i am seeing clear signs of mass speculation in the market in the last bull stage. Penny stocks cheering one day, and dropping the next day. These people probably have no idea of the larger world political issues like gulf tensions and US political implications. Don't underestimate a US recession to world economy.

Lastly, we will probably see large market sell down in HSI next week. The Nikkei won't be too much green either, and the whole of next week will probably be bloody. Advice to hold money in cash now. ;-)

5 cens

 

i am a great believer of his commodities boom since 2 years ago. bought some resources liked UTs together with china linked UTs. offloaded Asia pacific funds to focus on china and resources funds for long term.

with his comment, the long awaited year end rally may be reduced or totally capitated. anyway, George Soros also predict recession for USA soon.

with the current six days decline, it gives a mixed signal. 1) it could be a nice and gentle decline before a rally (i hope this one too) 2) a slow and long period systematic decline which could last for years. the current rally are fueled by the institution and hedge funds which are transfering their money from property, petrol and gold to commodities and stocks thus i deem this recent rally as artificial, the only questions is how long can this artificial rally last?

however, i am confident on the longer term as a "control freak" fed board can allow the recession to be shorter and recovery faster.

 

 

With weaker data pouring in one after another, investers are taking the opportunity to off load those stocks that deem expensive and return again after when price fell to a acceptable level. Nov could be a dull month for stock market this year.

 

MARKET SNAPSHOT

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks ended lower Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its first six-session losing streak since mid-2005, after a surge in long-term interest rates and a spike in oil prices overshadowed a largely positive October jobs report.

The Dow industrials fell 32.50 points to 11,986.04. Of the blue chip barometer's 30 components, 23 contributed to losses. It's the first time the index has fallen six times in a row since June 2005.

The Dow also ended below 12,000 for the first time since October 18.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 3.23 points at 2,330.79 while the S&P 500 Index dropped 3.04 points to 1,364.30.

On the week, the Dow fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.8%. The S&P 500, meanwhile, put in a weekly loss of 0.9%.

In Friday trading, investors had to juggle with jobs data, higher oil prices and a jump in bond yields, but also a raft of earnings reports led by Qualcomm, Electronic Arts and Whole Foods Market Inc.

"We're pulling back because of the sell-off in the bond market that is sending yields higher," said James Park, managing director at Rodman and Renshaw. "Oil is also picking up some steam here."

For Owen Fitzpatrick, managing director private wealth management at Deutsche Bank, the employment report did alleviate some concerns over a slowing economy.

But "we have the election coming up next week with a lot of focus on what will happen with both the House and the Senate, so I don't think we'll get anything too big in front of that. And in general, it's hard to completely offset some of the weaker economic numbers we've been getting," he said.

Weak manufacturing and productivity reports are two key pieces of data that came up short of expectations earlier in the week.

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 DOW below pyschological 12,000 level. Bull rally fighting hard but unable to stay above that. Monday may see major selling in overbought indices, esp hang seng. Foreign money coming into asia and european market since the sell down in US have already brought the HSI to its divergence at the recent peak. Asia bourses will probably all see red too. Crude oil expected to rally above $60per barrel from bottom next week with imminent terrorist attacks in Nigeria, US govt. If so, DOW may take a deeper plunge. Monday will see volatile DOW trading as election season heats up the next day. However, this november will be a volatile seasons for stocks.

 

look like there is strong support at 20days sma @ 19980, good news for STI at this moment.

 

Clarify from my previous post.. "Although unemployment rate at 5 years low, "cooling" of housing will affect US economy".

 

With unemployment rate at 5 years low of 4.4% plus the "cooling" effect of housing, this is going to affect US economy. For those people who wanted to buy a flat/house in Singapore either for staying/investment/rental, can consider next year June 2007 onwards. In my own opinions, the drop now is only just the beginning.

 

RED NOw....below 12000 already

 

Maybe a rate cut even sooner on 12th December's FOMC?? .... US market playing see-saw now. Dow up 20 points, while Nasdaq flat at 2 points.

 

Maybe US market is pricing in a rate cut for next year

 

Not much of a rally after all hor .... Nvm, so long stay afloat GREEN can liao. Haha!!!

So far, Dow has shown better resistance than Nasdaq. But, watch Nasdaq chiong after Christmas shopping season.