Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,
According to a recent article from Upstream, Norwegian state oil company Statoil is in talks with rig owners about ordering some of the largest jackup drilling rigs ever built. These rigs have been labelled Category‐ J rigs and are planned for work on subsea completions. Statoil has requested expressions of interest from jackup owners and are expecting initial responses back in October 2011. If they decide to proceed, tenders could go out by 2012 with potential delivery by 2015. The group indicated that they want to address the problem of the ageing rig fleet in Norway, which ties in with our view that the rapidly ageing global rig fleet will remain a key factor driving the replacement cycle in this sector.
The article highlighted that leading candidates for this program could include Maersk Drilling, Seadrill, and Rowan. Other drillers that may also be interested include Odfjell, Awilco, Noble Drilling, and Ensco. Upstream indicated that Maersk has recently been screening the market for a possible order of the new GustoMSC‐ design jackup, the CJ80. Their most recent orders have been for CJ70 rigs, two of which were placed with Keppel in early 2011 at about US$600m each (approximately US$500m per rig for the yard work) and are the largest jackups built to date. The dollar value for each CJ80 rig should be more than US$600m as these CJ80 rigs have variable deck loads that are higher than the 8000 tonne load of the CJ70 units.
We believe KEP and/or SMM are well positioned for the Category‐ J rigs, with both being clear market leaders for high specification jackups. Of the three leading candidates for the new rigs, Maersk over the past 12 months has ordered 2 jackups with KEP, while Seadrill has ordered 3 jackups withSMM and 1 semisubmersible drilling tender with KEP. In 2007, Rowan ordered 4 jackups with KEP.
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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. Below 81.36 minor support will indicate that rebound from 74.95 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this support. On the upside, above 86.64 will bring another rise. But after all, we'd still expect upside to be limited well below 90.52 key resistance and bring resumption of whole fall from 114.83 eventually.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 90.52 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish in crude oil now.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Gold (GC)
No change in gold's outlook. We'd maintain that break of 1705.4 double top neckline is needed to indicate near term trend reversal. Otherwise, fall from 1923.7 is still expected to continue. On the downside, below 1585 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 1535 and break there will target 1500 psychological level next. Though, break of 1705.4 will argue that fall from 1923.7 might be over and will bring stronger rise towards this high.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates that gold has made a medium term top at 1923.7, ahead of long term projection level of 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6 and 2000 psychological level. While the fall from 1923.7 is steep and deep, gold is still holding inside long term rising channel from 681 and above 55 weeks EMA at 1513.3. Hence, we're not too bearish in gold yet. Strong support is anticipated at 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contained downside, at least initially, and bring rebound. However, note that sustained break of 1478.3 will strongly suggest that the long term up trend has already reversed.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Impressive....up 11cts in just 1 hour 
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 3.28
Our preference: Long positions above 3.28 with targets @ 3.93 & 4.3 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 3.28 look for further downside with 3 & 2.5 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is posting a bullish divergence (not confirmed yet).
Key levels
4.7
4.3
3.93
3.56 last
3.28
3
2.5
oic. thank you very much
rotijai ( Date: 09-Oct-2011 19:54) Posted:
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I read the news that keppelcorp just has one options exercise yesterday ... ...
