Last Updated : 04 December 2012 at 18:20 IST
Gold tumbles as risk-aversion grips market
 
Source :Commodity Online Editorial Desk, Bloomberg
NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold prices continue to tumble as risk aversion is taking the markets by a storm. Gold prices on the Comex are down by 1.03% and was seen trading at $1703.45 as of 6.15 pm IST.
“Worries over U.S. fiscal cliff keeping buyers wary and Rupee appreciation are the two major reason for correction in gold prices.” said Ankush Kumar Jain, Manager-Researrch, Metals-Energy, Commodity Online.
Prices on India's MCX has also tumbled by 0.64% in February contract and was seen at 31496 on 6.00PM IST.
“It’s more the risk aversion out of commodities which is probably having an impact on gold,”Peter Fertig, the owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said today by phone to Bloomberg.
Still, “there are arguments investors should buy gold on worries the U.S. economy could fall over the fiscal cliff,” he added, citing demand for a haven investment.
The Obama administration has rejected a new offer from Republicans to address the fiscal cliff issue. 
 
Last Updated : 30 November 2012 at 12:15 IST
 
Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium prices to rise sharply in 2013: Commerzbank
 
Source :Commodity Online/Commerzbank
 
NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices are set to rise sharply next year, with yellow metal finally topping $2,000 an ounce, said Commerzbank in a commodity research note.
According to the German bank, other industrially oriented metals should also strengthen in 2013, listing full-year forecasts of $40 for silver, $1,875 for platinum and $855 for palladium.
“The year 2013 is likely to see precious metal prices climbing further or indeed resuming their upswing. The ultra-loose monetary policy pursued by the central banks coupled with geopolitical risks should ensure that gold remains in demand as a store of value and safe haven,” Commerzbank added.
Gold
The yellow  metal to average $1,950 next year,  buoyed by central banks through both loose monetary policy of some and buying of the metal for reserves by others. In the case of gold, one headwind during 2012 is expected to abate next year, they added.
Indian buyers, who were less active this year, to become accustomed to higher prices brought about by factors such as increased duties on gold imports and a weak rupee. Also, the monsoon season is not likely to be as poor as this year, meaning more income and thus gold demand from rural areas. Improved economic prospects in  China, another key consumer, should support demand there, the Frankfurt based bank added.
“Investment demand  should profit further from the low and negative real interest rates, for the leading central banks will continue to pursue their ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in a bid to shore up the economy and stabilize the financial markets,” Commerzbank noted.
Central banks likely will be net buyers for the fourth straight year in 2013, since gold still accounts for a small proportion of currency reserves for emerging economies.
Gold-mine output should rise, but the main noticeable production growth will be in countries where demand will also increase sharply, such as China and Russia, Commerzbank said. As a result, supply from these countries is unlikely to reach the global market.
“All in all, we are confident that the  gold price will achieve– and indeed exceed, at least temporarily –  the $2,000 per troy ounce mark next year,” Commerzbank continued.
Silver
According to the second biggest German bank, silver can be expected to profit as industrial demand picks up. The automotive industry in particular is set to contribute to demand growth. Auto production is expected to expand, and cars use silver for electronic components. An improving economy is also likely to mean more demand from the housing and construction sectors.
“We are convinced that  silver will once again exceed the $40 per troy ounce mark in 2013,” they added.
Platinum Group Metals
The bank said a widely followed Johnson Matthey report issued earlier this month does not look for any fundamental change to the supply/demand picture next year. Johnson Matthey forecast a supply deficit this year and next.
“The strikes in South Africa are likely to have a long-lasting impact, and may even flare up again if low prices and higher costs result in mine closures and mass redundancies. At the same time, demand from the automotive industry and other industrial applications is expected to recover. This points to a further year of deficits, which should be reflected in higher prices. We expect  platinum to exceed the $1,900 per troy ounce mark by year’s end 2013,” Commerzbank added.
Palladium is also forecast by Johnson Matthey to be in a supply deficit in both 2012 and 2013.
“Supply is likely to fall further, mainly as a result of lower Russian sales. At the same time, demand from the automotive industry is likely to remain robust, so another year of supply deficit appears inevitable. We see considerable upside potential for  palladium and foresee a price of $950 per troy ounce by year’s end 2013,” Commerzbank concluded.
 
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Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Bounces Following Strong Sell Off
 
Daily Bars
Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
 
Commodity  Analysis: I wrote yesterday that “weakness off of the 61.8% retracement demands respect but a drop below 11/20 high (1735.51) would create overlap and suggest that an important top is in place.” Gold didn’t just create overlap…the price nearly broke the 11/15 low. Viewed in light of the 3 wave advance from 1672.50, the trend is lower.
 
Commodity Trading Strategy: Given market conditions lately, there is nothing at this point that would surprise me but a move back to former resistance at 1735 would present a short opportunity against the 11/23 high.
 
LEVELS: 1673 1684 1705 1735 1745 1754
Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Struggles at 61.8% Retracement
 
Daily Bars
Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
 
Commodity  Analysis: “Gold bounced from the 50% retracement of the rally from 1672.50 Thursday but what bothers me about being bullish is the corrective nature of the rally from the low (3 waves). However, the low on day 3 of the month and emotional trade at the low (11/2 was a JS Thrust day) suggests that price is likely to stay above 1672.50 for the remainder of November. Perhaps a complex correction is underway (series of 3 wave movements) throughout November.” Weakness off of the 61.8% retracement demands respect but a drop below 11/20 high (1735.51) would create overlap and suggest that an important top is in place.
 
Commodity Trading Strategy: “I’m on the lookout for a wave 2 or B top below the October high at higher levels. 1770/80 is of interest as a reversal zone.” Weakness below 1735.51 would turn me bearish against 1755.
 
LEVELS: 1719 1727 1736 1754 1771 1780