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Last year mid of Dec, the price almost same like now the price we have, and it rally until feb 2012 high at 1.51, hope this year the history will repeat again...
sgng123 ( Date: 11-Dec-2012 13:46) Posted:
US fiscal cliff biggest threat rather than freight rate to sum up.
Fed Reserve unleashing QE4 on wed, might be another opportunity to trade for short term gain.
Hope obama and GOP can come to a compromise then we can enjoy the christmas + new year + pre CNY stock market rally ( 3 combo) |
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U r right sgng123
US fiscal cliff biggest threat rather than freight rate to sum up.
Fed Reserve unleashing QE4 on wed, might be another opportunity to trade for short term gain.
Hope obama and GOP can come to a compromise then we can enjoy the christmas + new year + pre CNY stock market rally ( 3 combo)
Baltic Index has continued to dip last evening ..... now at 937........... bad but true....
Sgng123- bro you must have vested interest in NOL already. All the best !
By the way, US freight rate is like 2000 compared to 1400 in 4Q11. 30% higher. If Dec15 GRI go through, then it is like 2400 ( 58% higher). see the math?
Cliff resolved + Unlimited QE3 and QE4 = better propect for US economy = BB would go in and start pricing NOL for anticipated earning recovering in 1Q13. How high NOL would go up, very difficult to estimate since this stock is one crazy one. In 2006-2007 it shoot up from 1.XX to 4.XX all due to very bullish sentiment about US economy.
4Q is supposed to be slack season where rate start dropping and rate would pick up in 1Q then go into high mode in 2Q peaked at 3Q. This cycle is repeated year after year so no mistake about it. 4Q US rate now is comparable or even better than in 2010, not to mention it would get a boost of 400
this week. With Fed Reserve expanding their balance sheet further aka QE4, lot of liquidity would be injected into market in 2013. NOL share price
movement is heavily tied to future propect of US economy, price of bunker fuel and not totally by rate since rate can be doubled anytime as we seen in 1H12 GRIs ( US trade 1400 to 2800, Europe 800 to 1900 )
To discount the effect of QE3+4 ( UNLIMITED) on stock price is not a wise choice. I play it safe and wait for BB positioning and cliff resolve. Time to trade when both issues is resolved.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 11-Dec-2012 06:58) Posted:
Transpacific drop 2nd most after Europe Asia.
Your definition of no over capacity in transpacific is contradict.
sgng123 ( Date: 11-Dec-2012 00:42) Posted:
Bro it a supply lead earning recovering lol. Overcapacity is only on the europe trade route.
transpacific and asia no over capacity. Anyway don matter much, carriers would control supply of ships to meet demand
No demand , just pull out more ships then come heavy GRI, very simple. Supply lead recovery in 2013 bought by liners
forming alliance and set up their preference rate just like middle east oil cartel did. No demand and oil still stay 100+.
Milking the whole world as they control the market. |
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Transpacific drop 2nd most after Europe Asia.
Your definition of no over capacity in transpacific is contradict.
sgng123 ( Date: 11-Dec-2012 00:42) Posted:
Bro it a supply lead earning recovering lol. Overcapacity is only on the europe trade route.
transpacific and asia no over capacity. Anyway don matter much, carriers would control supply of ships to meet demand
No demand , just pull out more ships then come heavy GRI, very simple. Supply lead recovery in 2013 bought by liners
forming alliance and set up their preference rate just like middle east oil cartel did. No demand and oil still stay 100+.
Milking the whole world as they control the market. |
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Bro it a supply lead earning recovering lol. Overcapacity is only on the europe trade route.
transpacific and asia no over capacity. Anyway don matter much, carriers would control supply of ships to meet demand
No demand , just pull out more ships then come heavy GRI, very simple. Supply lead recovery in 2013 bought by liners
forming alliance and set up their preference rate just like middle east oil cartel did. No demand and oil still stay 100+.
Milking the whole world as they control the market.
Overcapacity to Last With New Ship Orders till...... 2015 ...... Oh NO.......
The global container fleet is expected to increase 9.8 percent in 2013, following a 7.2 percent increase in 2012, according to Alphaliner. The growth of new vessel capacity scheduled for delivery in 2014 will drop to 4.8 percent. Because carriers had almost no new ships due for delivery in 2015, analysts thought the industry might be able to work off the current overcapacity by 2015 when the amount of new vessel capacity scheduled for delivery was supposed to be down by almost half from 2014. But they changed their minds as more carriers started breaking the dry spell.
“The temptation to order new ships is getter very strong because of the pricing and the performance,” said Peter Shaerf, managing director of AMA Capital Partners.
The price of new ships has never been so attractive. A new container ship with a capacity of 13,000 20-foot-equivalent units costs about $110 million now, compared with $165 million at their peak, when they were hovering around $10,000 per slot. Even a 9,000-TEU ship costs in the low- to mid-$80 million range right now and has significantly lower fuel consumption than earlier versions.
Carriers hope to maintain market share and lower their operating costs by ordering the new more fuel-efficient ships.
“That’s why we are going to see some more orders in the next six months as more carriers come to realize the value of these new eco-ship designs,” Shaerf said. “The lemming effect comes into play. When one starts, they all do it.”
Evergreen Line was the first carrier to arrange for new ship orders this year. It will charter 10 new 13,800-TEU ships that were ordered by Enesol, another Taiwanese shipping line. Yang Ming has requested tenders for five ships of up 16,000 TEUs, with an option for another five, probably on a charter basis, probably for delivery after 2015. CCNI has ordered six new 9,000-TEU ships. And Seaspan, which has three 10,000-TEU ships due for delivery in 2014, will announce its plans for new ship orders soon.
These deliveries can be pushed back until 2015, when the current overcapacity has been absorbed. But unless global demand for ship space can catch up with this new spate of vessel capacity coming to market then, the new orders will prolong the present glut of capacity and the resulting up and down cycles of rates into 2015 and beyond.
It is all fact loh. All can check out APL website and all those brokerage house research. it might not go well to pp who
borrow to short and their position closing. Economic data from US/China showing rebound in trade and if the US
fiscal cliff uncertainty is clear then it tiger time in 2013. US economy improves = NOL share price rebound very simple lol.
NOL share price move 6 months in advance to quarter report due to BB positioning. BB might come in early Jan to jack up NOL then it time for
us to trade and earn some ang bao money.
don't pretend lei....
CSH123 ( Date: 10-Dec-2012 11:42) Posted:
| sgng123 dun be so precise leh |
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sgng123 dun be so precise leh
When trade fails, everything will also fail. No trade= no business=no jobs=no loans=no consumption=no production
Rate decline slowing, very good sign of GRI passing through.
Had checked nol liner arm APL is applying Transpacifc Peak Season Surcharge 500 ~600 per 40 feet on dec15.
Most likely carriers postponed the PSS to late 4Q and 1Q13 ( CNY cargo surge). This would result in
a so so 4Q result and big earning rebound in 1Q 13 due to PSS + 196M NOL building profit + 2012 ELP cost cutting effort
Majority of brokerage houses is upgrading NOL to a buy + accumulate with TP 1.30~1.50
After 4Q TP might go up due to expected earning rebound in 1Q.
Timing to buy would most likely be late Dec or early Jan.
There might be upward bias on US jobs data, PMI and china PMI in 2013 due to QE3, could create short trading gain ( 5% sentimental gain).
Just take note when the important date for economic data and place your bet.
2013 is not positive to shipping industry, good luck.
Will break Sgd. 0.9 soon, I suppose.
davidscs ( Date: 09-Dec-2012 14:01) Posted:
WCI Composite Index Falls 3.9 Percent
Rotterdam to Shanghai rates, a bellwether for the backhaul Europe to Asia market, dropped 2.8 percent last week to $952 per 40-foot container, according to the latest numbers from the World Container Index. Backhaul westbound trans-Pacific rates based on the Los Angeles to Shanghai lane were flat this week at $841 per 40-foot container, according to the WCI.
The WCI Composite index incorporating both backhaul and headhaul lanes was down 3.9 percent to $1,706 per 40-foot container, reflecting greater weakness in headhaul lanes.
With all indicators moving south...... best to stay put till there is more clarity .......
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WCI Composite Index Falls 3.9 Percent
Rotterdam to Shanghai rates, a bellwether for the backhaul Europe to Asia market, dropped 2.8 percent last week to $952 per 40-foot container, according to the latest numbers from the World Container Index. Backhaul westbound trans-Pacific rates based on the Los Angeles to Shanghai lane were flat this week at $841 per 40-foot container, according to the WCI.
The WCI Composite index incorporating both backhaul and headhaul lanes was down 3.9 percent to $1,706 per 40-foot container, reflecting greater weakness in headhaul lanes.
With all indicators moving south...... best to stay put till there is more clarity .......
Baltic index has declined below $1000 last Friday.
Shanghai Index sub $1000 as well at $999. Index has dipped 32 % !!! since early Nov.
With the capacity expected in 2013..... better trade with extreme care.... don't waste your bullets......
