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Sembmarine

A pause to the current rally is likely in the near-term with 2780- 2830 as support and 2920-2945 as resistance. If key global equity indices (e.g. US indices, FTSE100) are able to hang onto their recent gains, we point to the possibility of a subsequent close above 2945 (post pause) that should send the index higher
to the next key resistance at 3100. Finally, we view support at 2780 as critical and a downside break below this level will be a bearish sign.

While the immediate danger of the current European sovereign debt crisis spiralling into a GFC situation has subsided for now, we say that it would be mistaken to draw parallels between now and March 2009 when global equity markets bottomed and subsequently embarked on a V-shaped recovery. It is still
early days to call for an end to macro uncertainties.

News flow wise, it is likely that last week marked the high point in the European leaders’ attempt to halt the debt crisis from spiralling out of control. Excitement about the EU summit’s outcome could turn to scrutiny. Next, global economic growth remains uncertain heading into 2012 and this will affect
corporate earnings visibility.

 

 

SembMarine (SMM): SMM, in a consortium arrangement with PT Scorpa Pranedya, has secured a US$300m Floating Storage Offloading (FSO) tanker conversion contract from an Exxon Mobil subsidiary for use at its Cepu Block in Indonesia. SMM is responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and hook-up work of a very large crude carrier (VLCC)-sized floating storage and offloading vessel for the Banyu Urip project in East Java, Indonesia. The conversion is expected to be completed in 27 months.

The contract size is large compared to SMM’s previous FSO conversion projects. This brings SMM’s ytd order wins to $3.34b, vs $3b for the full year 2010.
DMG reiterates Buy with TP $5.46.

 

Why?

I don't listen to Anal-si...

krisluke      ( Date: 31-Oct-2011 00:29) Posted: Oh NO ? !!! Cimb technical analysis team HEADACHE LIAO   Anyone bot at $3.28 or during cimb call at $3.20 or lower ? ?? lowchia      ( Date: 30-Oct-2011 20:24) Posted: On Friday, Sembmar gap up and closed at $4.36 with HIGH volume of 16.97 million shares traded. A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish. Both RSI & MACD are bullish as RSI trend upwards. Important Resistance of Sembmar: $4.53 Immediate Support of Sembmar: $4.15 Currently prices are resisted by 100 days MA. On 27/Oct, prices broke the ................. READ MORE

 

Oh NO ? !!!


Cimb technical analysis team HEADACHE LIAO

 

Anyone bot at $3.28 or during cimb call at $3.20 or lower ? ??

lowchia      ( Date: 30-Oct-2011 20:24) Posted: On Friday, Sembmar gap up and closed at $4.36 with HIGH volume of 16.97 million shares traded. A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish. Both RSI & MACD are bullish as RSI trend upwards. Important Resistance of Sembmar: $4.53 Immediate Support of Sembmar: $4.15 Currently prices are resisted by 100 days MA. On 27/Oct, prices broke the ................. READ MORE

 

On Friday, Sembmar gap up and closed at $4.36 with HIGH volume of 16.97 million shares traded.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

Both RSI & MACD are bullish as RSI trend upwards.

Important Resistance of Sembmar: $4.53

Immediate Support of Sembmar: $4.15

Currently prices are resisted by 100 days MA.

On 27/Oct, prices broke the ................. READ MORE

 

 

 

Krisluke!

I love U!!!

U r so hardworking :) 

 

Error

Earning announcement 3rd quarter 2011

Sembcorp industries 04th nov 2011

Sembcorp marne 03th nov 2011

 

 

Shanghai and Sensex just abt to retest their psychological (aka obama stimulus package strategy) 

resistant  that could turn into a natural support

Shanghai : 2620

Sensex: 17, 800

my personal view is that any breach of such above, the trend will turn from bear to bull.

 

 

Silver

The breach of 50% Fibonacci correction could trigger a test of 61.8% Fibonacci as shown above. The ascending triangle formation could also support the upside movement, where the triangle’s suggested target is at 37.80, while 61.8% Fibonacci correction is at 37.25. Therefore, we expect trading above 35.10 to support the upside movement to extend today.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 32.95 and key resistance now at 37.80.

The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact.

Support: 35.10, 34.40, 34.00, 33.75, 33.40
Resistance: 35.65, 36.20, 36.80, 37.25, 37.80

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying silver around 35.10 and take profit in stages at (36.20 and 37.25) and stop loss below 34.40 might be appropriate.

Gold

With a daily closing above SMA50 -colored in red- we started to look at the metal from a pure harmonic point of view. Gold is dominated by a fine Fibonacci symmetry which suggests that a harmonic Bat pattern is in progress where it is currently forming its CD leg as seen on the provided daily chart. Vortex reflects a strong upside trend but we see Stochastic is in need for some kind of relief. We may witness a retest of 50% Fibonacci of XA leg and may be the pivotal support around 1702.00 before moving higher once more towards D point or rather the PRZ of the pattern around 88.6% of CD leg. A break of 61.8% is required to ease the path towards the targeted areas.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1673.00 and key resistance now at 1830.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1728.00, 1715.00, 1702.00, 1695.00, 1687.00
Resistance: 1745.00, 1763.00, 1772.00, 1785.00, 1800.00

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1724.00 targeting 1785.00 and stop loss below1690.00 might be appropriate.

 

As this week comes to an end, gold gives up some of the huge gains recorded during the week, where the metal advanced sharply ahead of the European summit and benefited from the high level of uncertainty however, the metal returned to decline slightly after leaders were able to quell jitters and rising debt woes.

Gold opened today's session at $1744.77 per ounce and recorded the highest at $1752.36 and the lowest at $1735.22, and is currently hovering around $1738.03 per ounce.

Over weekly basis, the metal gained in the first four sessions and heads towards large weekly gains, despite the mixed demand today, where the metal opened this week at $1641.00 per ounce and recorded the highest at $1752.36 and the lowest at $1635.27 per ounce, supported by the heavy losses seen for the U.S. dollar.

Europe remains the main focus in the market, as investors are looking forward for the implementation of the measures and steps taken by leaders in the October 26 summit however, optimism dominated the market yesterday after the cheerful results, while gold gained heavily in the past session due to the weakening dollar and mixed sentiment.

We saw a relief rally yesterday along with rising demand for risky investments, which reflected negative demand for the U.S. dollar and strong demand for gold however, we expect volatility and heavy fluctuations to dominate the market today with lack of major fundamentals from Europe and Asia today and especially as this week comes to an end, where investors will take profit and close their financial positions ahead of the coming week.

Markets will also focus today on the income report from the world's largest economy, with a positive outlook that the report will bring more optimism to the market as it will show improvement in income and spending levels, especially after the upbeat gross domestic product figures, which showed that the U.S. economy grew beyond expectations by 2.5%.

The income report, which consists mainly of the personal income, the personal spending and the personal consumption expenditures expectations suggest that the personal income could have improved by 0.3% from the previous drop of 0.1%, while the personal spending index is projected to rise by 0.6% from the previous 0.2% expansion.

Moreover, sliver opened the session today at $35.05 per ounce, and recorded a high of $35.66 and a low of $34.93, and is trading slightly now around $35.23 per ounce.

 

Fundamental Analysis

Crude oil retreated today to cut some of yesterday's gains that achieved after optimism from U.S. that the economy is doing well, along with a comprehensive plan declared by EU leaders that would be sufficient to contain the crisis from spreading to bigger European economies.

At the end of this week, crude oil satisfied with gains that achieved during the week due to hopes from Europe that a deal where reached to support the debt-laden nation and prevent the crisis' ghost from spreading to other nations, especially the bigger ones such as Italy and Spain.

Also, the U.S. economy is getting better as GDP figures showed yesterday that the economy is growing by 2.5% at its fastest pace this year, giving signs that the global recovery train will be supported by the fastest growth pace in the world's largest economy, which added more positive momentum to crude oil yesterday.

Oil for December delivery is fluctuating around $93.38 a barrel after recording a high of $93.96 and a low of $92.98 after it opened the session at $93.87.

Volatility is dominating global markets and crude oil in particular, as it trading within a narrow range but with a negative momentum due to investors that are closing their positions at the end of the week to prevent any surprises that may cost them a lot of money.

The chief executive officer of the EFSF said that China may not support Europe as quickly as was thought by buying EFSF' bonds as planned since China is a regular buyer of the fund's bonds, but China is a rich surplus country and it may continue the regular buying steps, where he indicated as well that the Greek bailout deal was an exceptional case and no need to repeat it.

China is the main target for EU leaders that would support the continent in these times to ensure containing the crisis and get out of the crisis hole as soon as possible, and if China do not respond to leaders as planned and wont buying bonds as they need to support liquidity in Europe by the Special Purpose Vehicle.

Crude oil is expected to maintain its volatile case at the end of the week and ahead of the U.S. income report which will give signs over the economy in general, and it may support crude if it show better than expected figures where it may show a rise by 0.3%.

On the other hand, lack of fundamentals are adding more volatility to global markets and especially European markets, which will keep investors looking for any comments that may give more details over the European plan after it relieved the market when it been announced.

Technical Analysis

The commodity attempted to the resume the upside move, after breaching the intraday bullish flag pattern yesterday, where oil tested areas around 94.35, while trading is uniform within the ascending channel stochastic is in overbought are again, while price is near to to the main descending resistance, accordingly, due to the conflicting signals we will remain neutral for now.

The trading range for the day is among the major support at 89.60 and the major resistance at 96.00.

The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.

The provided chart based on GMT+3

Support: 92.95, 92.30, 91.50, 90.60, 89.60
Resistance: 94.00, 94.55, 95.00, 95.60, 96.50

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend staying aside awaiting more confirmations

 

As analyse before by one of the local brokerage house ( forget which one liao)...

                                                                                                                                                                                      Attractive dividend next year 2012 PLUS a cash rich corp.

Guess I'm right on the attractive dividend payout.

 

krisluke      ( Date: 28-Oct-2011 19:06) Posted: Sembcorp Marine: Co. will record a $54.4m refund of tax in its income statement in due to the favourable tax assesment following the settlement of its disputed FX transactions. Grp has been allowed a deduction from its losses from this recorded in FY09 and FY09. As tax had provisionally been paid pending the decision and a refund will be received from IRAS in due course. Kim Eng note that if refunded by this financial yr, this reversal will provide a 7% boost to house forecast for FY11 to $808m. Stress that this is a one-time adjustment, but believe that it may be applied, if SMM so chooses, towards paying out its dividends. The $54.4m represents around 2.6c/share. Fundamentally, house remain sanguine on SMM's prospects and the potential for its share price recovery and keys Buy Call with $4.95 TP.

 

  SEE   THEN

                                        stock market omen...

                                                                          " GOOD NEWS DOESN" T GET REPEATED THRICE..."

        SO, Today ( FRI )....

                                                                                REported two good news liao....

  4th Nov 2011 ( FRI ), 3rd Quarter Earning Surprise ? ??

                                                                                                                                              GOOD OR BAD ? ! ? Any one ... ...

 

PRESS RELEASE

SEMBCORP MARINE’S SUBSIDIARY, SEMBAWANG SHIPYARD

AWARDED FSO TANKER CONVERSION CONTRACT FROM MOBIL

CEPU LTD

Singapore, October 28, 2011:

Shipyard, in a consortium arrangement with PT Scorpa Pranedya, has

secured a US$300 million Floating Storage Offloading (FSO) tanker

conversion contract from Mobil Cepu Ltd, a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil

Corporation, contractor for the Indonesian Oil and Gas Regulatory Body

(BPMIGAS) for Cepu Block. PT Scorpa Pranedya is an Indonesian

shipowning and ship-management company.

Under the contract, the Shipyard is responsible for the engineering,

procurement, construction, commissioning and hook-up work of a very large

crude carrier (VLCC)-sized floating storage and offloading vessel for the

Banyu Urip project in Indonesia.

Mr Ong Poh Kwee, Managing Director of Sembawang Shipyard said “We are

very proud to be part of the project. We are committed to work closely with

all partners involved in this milestone project for a successful outcome. We

believe that with our expertise, we will be able to achieve the desired

expectations, in order to help the government of Indonesia in fulfilling the

national priority with respect to energy needs.”

The vessel is expected to be deployed in offshore Tuban for the Banyu Urip

Project, located in East Java, Indonesia. The engineering, procurement, and

construction of the project is to be completed 27 months after contract award.

The contract is not expected to have any material impact on the earnings per

share and net tangible assets of Sembcorp Marine for the year ending

December 31, 2011.Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary Sembawang

Company Registration Number: 196300098Z

2

About Sembawang Shipyard

Sembawang Shipyard, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sembcorp Marine, has

one of the largest integrated ship repair facilities in Southeast Asia. The

shipyard's world-class reputation is based on the company's commitment to

high quality standards, Health, Safety and Environment standards, timely

delivery, superior customer service and innovative solutions.

Besides its proven expertise in the sectors of tankers, bulk carriers and

container / cargo vessels, the shipyard is also recognized as a specialist in

the niche markets such as FSO / FPSO conversion, offshore upgrading,

conversion and newbuilding, LNG carrier, passenger ship conversion /

upgrading, damage repairs and repair of chemical tankers, liquefied gas

carriers and navy ships.

For media and analysts enquiries, please contact:

Ms Judy Han

Senior Vice President

Investor Relations & Communications

Tel : (65) 62627203

Fax : (65) 62610738

Email : judy@sembcorpmarine.com.sg

Website : www.sembcorpmarine.com.sg

 

Pivot: 2740

Our preference: Long positions above 2740 with targets @ 2915 & 3010 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 2740 look for further downside with 2665 & 2576 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Key levels
3100
3010
2915
2894 last
2740
2665
2576

 

Sembcorp Marine: Co. will record a $54.4m refund of tax in its income statement in due to the favourable tax assesment following the settlement of its disputed FX transactions. Grp has been allowed a deduction from its losses from this recorded in FY09 and FY09. As tax had provisionally been paid pending the decision and a refund will be received from IRAS in due course.

Kim Eng note that if refunded by this financial yr, this reversal will provide a 7% boost to house forecast for FY11 to $808m. Stress that this is a one-time adjustment, but believe that it may be applied, if SMM so chooses, towards paying out its dividends. The $54.4m represents around 2.6c/share. Fundamentally, house remain sanguine on SMM's prospects and the potential for its share price recovery and keys Buy Call with $4.95 TP.

 

Sembcorp Marine (Flash): SembMarine and Indonesia's Scorpa Pranedya have landed long-awaited FSO contracts with ExxonMobil for the multi-billion dollar Banyu Urip oil projeject in Java. No official anncmt or details from SembMarine yet.

Both companies have been in the running for the contracts. In Aug, ExxonMobil confirmed the award of the 1st EPC contract for the Banyu Urip to a consortium of Triparta Engineers & Samsung Engrg to build onshore facilities.