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Alphaliner: Container Ship Charter Rates to Weaken in 2013
The container ship charter market, struggling to recover from record lows, is set to weaken further in 2013 with an overhang of excess capacity depressing vessel earnings, according to industry analyst Alphaliner.
Average charter rates this year have risen 20 percent from their all-time low in 2009, but remain 55 percent below their long-term 20-year average (unadjusted for inflation), making 2012 the second-worst year for shipowners in the past two decades.
The rising volume of unemployed and laid-up ships is stifling efforts to raise charter rates, Alphaliner said.
The fleet of jobless vessels with capacity of more than 500 20-foot-equivalent units stood at 231 units with a total capacity of 820,000 TEUs at the beginning of December, including 53 that have been idle for more than six months.
Daily charter rates are between $5,000 and $9,000 for all ship sizes below 5,000 TEUs, with vessels of 1,000-2,000 TEUs faring comparatively better than 2,000- to 5,000-TEU ships, for which rates barely cover operating costs.
The high share of large and medium-sized ships in the 1.7 million TEUs of capacity scheduled to be delivered in 2013 will continue to exert downward pressure on rates for 2,000- to 5,000-TEU vessels, whose jobless rate has risen to 8.2 percent from 6.4 percent in August.
The 1,000- to 2,000-TEU segment should perform better, with an order book-to-fleet ratio of only 6 percent and an unemployment rate that has fallen steadily since August.
old news already bro.
The newest GRI US 600 for West coast US and 800 for other destination. Asia - Europe need a bigger GRI not to lose out to US trade route never mind
low demand. It is now take it or leave it carrier dictated market lol. This kind of abnormality always happen after a rate war and retailers under cutting liner profit. Sooner or later exporters would cry foul and beg for mercy, this kind of shit happen every few years that people become numb to it. It is a repeat of 2009 ~2010 all over again. Checked out tomorrow house traders would start to buy back shares they sold these 3 days and take out the shortists again...
23 October 2012
To Our Valued Customer
Please be informed that with effect from 1st January 2013, there will be a General Rate Increase (GRI) as follows:
Eastbound: -
1. Origin: Asia West Asia
Destination: Canada USA (Except Puerto Rico)
Quantum:
US$1500/R40H
Please note that all above-mentioned charges are applicable to both tariff and service contract rates unless otherwise specified.
We thank you for your valued support and look forward to being of service to you. Should you require further information, please do not hesitate to contact the Sales in charge or our Customer Service at Tel:
Kind Regards
Sales Support 6371-2000.
APL Co. Pte Ltd
Singapore Agency Division
456 Alexandra Road
#08-00 NOL Building Singapore 119962 www.apl.com
Co. Ref. No. 199604017Z
http://www.tsacarriers.org/pr_121812.html
The carriers are all going nuts lol. Huge GRI US600~800 in transpacific trade on 15 Jan 13.
They are trying very hard to push up the freight rate to sky high rate in time for their annual contract rate in Apr/May.
It is do or die mode lol, this is extreme behaviour trying to recoup 2 years of loss in 2013
Watch out next year, gona see lot of freight records smashed excitment!!!
nol share most likely remain unchanged till jan13. Window dressing by fund managers almost finished by now.
gona wait till BB reopen their book in jan and repositioned holding. most likely defensive stock wouldbe sold off and
growth stock in favour again. US fiscal cliff is almost done as GOP had conceded on their refusal to hike tax, now focus
is shifted back to obama to find enough spending to match revenue gained from tax hike/reform lol gun backfired on democrat.
House traders is putting very strong resistance on NOL share at 1.12 and above, don want us to earn money.
regarding the german liners merging is a good thing, cos it might spook the 3 big players Mersk, MSC and CMA to retain market leadership
by swallowing smaller players down the rank. NOL liner arm APL might be target by the big players since it offers market share gain in US where
demand is stronger than europe in 2013. Let pray lol or maybe Temasek might decide to privatise NOL to sell off APL lol.
thsi shud boost nol shares ....huat argh!!!!!
The shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd and Hamburg Süd said on Tuesday they were investigating whether and under what conditions a merger would make sense.
ANZEIGE
A combination of the two companies would create a group with annual revenue of more than €10 billion ($13 billion) and a fleet of about 250 vessels. The companies gave no details in their brief statement and declined further comment.
" We're going into this with hope," a person familiar with the negotiations told Reuters, adding that the talks were only just beginning and that it wasn't known when the review would be completed.
Both firms are under pressure from high fuel costs and a surplus of new ships coming onto the market. The merged company would be among the
world's biggest players. The companies would complement each other well. Hapag-Lloyd is a leading shipper in trade to and from Asia while Hamburg Süd is strong in routes to North and South America.
The city of Hamburg holds close to 37 percent of Hapag-Lloyd, the world's sixth-biggest container shipping company, while logistics entrepreneur Klaus-Michael Kühne, who also controls Swiss group Kühne & Nagel, owns just over 28 percent. German travel and tourism group TUI AG, which controls Europe's largest tour operator TUI Travel, holds a 22-percent stake in Hapag-Lloyd.
Hamburg-Süd currently ranks in 12th place
This is work of house traders bro. They shoot down retailer players who tried to trade/short then cover their position on thur/fri.
Same play every week till US fiscal cliff resolve. don bother to trade/short nol till cliff over and bb move in else we all just be
easy targets to get shot.
davidscs ( Date: 18-Dec-2012 22:08) Posted:
Time and Sales NOL for over 100 lots transaction
Sell down of > 100 lots is significantly higher than Buy up of > 100 lots...... trade with care. NOL is likely to continue to underperform in near term.....
1704- Sell down 247 lots
1656- Sell down 648 lots
1649- Sell down 160 lots
1649- Sell down 300 lots
1527- Buy up 100 lots
1436- Sell down 112 lots
1431- Sell down 200 lots
0858- Buy Up 107 lots |
|
http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/apl/apl-postpones-india-us-peak-surcharges_20121218.html
JOC is slow, only disclosing 2 days after APL website announced it on monday.
sgng123 ( Date: 17-Dec-2012 21:38) Posted:
Peak Season Surcharge for US delay to 1 Jan 13 from 15 Dec 12.
Guess share price today move down due to punter dispointment with PSS delay
US fiscal cliff is really hurting retailers sentiment, all want to play safe than sorry.
2013 might be great due to overlapping 2012 PSS into 1Q + nol building sale + 2013 PSS if cliff is resolved. |
|
Time and Sales NOL for over 100 lots transaction
Sell down of > 100 lots is significantly higher than Buy up of > 100 lots...... trade with care. NOL is likely to continue to underperform in near term.....
1704- Sell down 247 lots
1656- Sell down 648 lots
1649- Sell down 160 lots
1649- Sell down 300 lots
1527- Buy up 100 lots
1436- Sell down 112 lots
1431- Sell down 200 lots
0858- Buy Up 107 lots
according to apl india newest announcement to customers, there is another GRI on 15 Jan 13 for canada and south america
about 600 ~ 1000. Hanjin , OOCL and some other liners had put up another asia-europe GRI 350 in 15 jan 13.
This is insane all carriers seems to be on hiking GRI mode, hiking rate up in low demand environment to boost their chance of a higher
rate for their 12 monthly fixed contract in Apr/May time. Deja Vu bro, it gona be a repeat of what happen earlier this year but this time round
it is happening at jan instead of march. let see how high rate can be jacked up.
bro don need to work in nol.
http://apl.com/india/html/news.html
check out this link to apl india then all the info such as pss and gri u all know.
Nol is the holding parent of APL who bring in all the money.
There are other local site in apl site to check but only apl india and japan got the most comprehensive data. Rest of other site just refer
to customer relarionship officers regarding rate issues. Guess APL is main in india and japan.
bro, u werking in NOL rite?
Peak Season Surcharge for US delay to 1 Jan 13 from 15 Dec 12.
Guess share price today move down due to punter dispointment with PSS delay
US fiscal cliff is really hurting retailers sentiment, all want to play safe than sorry.
2013 might be great due to overlapping 2012 PSS into 1Q + nol building sale + 2013 PSS if cliff is resolved.
Latest GRI got around 50 ~ 60 % through, not bad since dec is the slack season.
up to now, six big GRI 400-600 basically all got through 50-80% for this low growth year, this lead me to believe freight rate is now determined
by liners instead of demand. It had become the reverse, supply lead recovery should be the theme in 2013 earning recovery.
Good thing is the european banks still refusing to lend their wallet to carriers so no rate war forseen in 2013.
7 Jan 13,GRI US1500 reefer( refrigerated box) imposed on both US and europe route.
Congestion surcharge US1000 on US east coast if labor strike occurs.
Carriers this time round get serious and more ruthless in squeezing money out of exporters in any possible ways.
Be prepared to see record breaking freight rate in 2013 even there is little/no demand, it had become the carriers market.
Personnel i think rate would go up by another 50% for europe/us to rebuilt liners finance, rate war most likely in 2015
Nol share is slowly climbing up every day. High selling by shortist limit the gain and now we just need to wait for BB involvement.
A few days of 5-8% rally in share price is the signal for trade. Need BB support to ensure bull trend in the medium term so we
can trade and make money. This is too similiar to dec2011 where share price got stuck in range bound then moving up in jan2012
before busting into life in feb.
may be a good shipping stock to buy next year !
Japan LDP back to power. Unlimited QE expected for BoJ + Unlimited Fed Reserve QE = lot of money no where to go in 2013.
Japanese Yen And US dollar gona hit the bottom next year, time for cheap japan/us holiday trip.
2013 might turn out to be the turnaround year for cyclindal shares ( nol, sia, tigerairway etc).
By the way US GOP willing to raise tax for the rich, soon the fiscal cliff would be over.
Soon all the major uncertainties would be cleared, then time to start punting cyclindal share, long wait 18 months of uncertainty.
By the way for those more risk inclined, a good entrance point is the day when US fiscal cliff is resolved. Might be somewhere near christmas or early jan.
4Q result would not cover the heavy loss sustained during 1H but it would lessen the total loss for full year. What we should look out for is 1Q 2013 result.
1Q 13 result would determine nol share price trend for the whole of 2013.
It is expected GRI would hold since liners is taking out capacity. But to see a more stable rate, need to take out more capacity which i believed mersk
would gona undertake next year. Bigger GRI of upward to US800 is expected in 2013 as it prove to be profitable working together to control supply.
Not gona bother about rate for now, US fiscal cliff more important. Once that cliff is over, demand would shoot up very fast like what happen in 2010.
Another QE induced fake global demand, once QE is off then we back to slow growth mode sign...
