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TOKYO
JAPANESE share prices opened higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark Nikkei-225 index rising 117.20 points, or 1.25 per cent, to 9,512.52 in the first minutes of trading.
KUALA LUMPUR
At 9.30am today, there were 125 gainers, 137 losers and 162 counters traded unchanged on the Bursa Malaysia.
The FBM-KLCI was at 1,136.95 down 2.30 points, the FBM2BRD was at 4,899.24 up 1.51 points, and the FBMEmas was at 7,668.74 down 9.23 points.
Turnover was at 146.145 million shares valued at RM161.047 million (S$65.6 million).
Stocks charge higher
Investors encouraged by quarterly results, a potential financing deal for troubled lender CIT. Dow rallies; Nasdaq, S&P 500 gain more than 1%.
By Catherine Clifford, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 20, 2009: 6:53 PM ET
Wall Street also got a charge from reports that small business lender CIT has secured private-sector financing to keep it out of bankruptcy. Investors were encouraged to see that the financial sector can take care of itself, without government bailout funds.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 104 points, or 1.2%. Monday's rally pushed the blue-chip index into positive territory (in 2009) for the first time in more than 5 weeks.
The broader S&P 500 (SPX) index added 11 points, or 1.1%, to close at its highest level in more than 8 months.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 23 points, or about 1.2%, to stretch to its highest level since early October, or about 9 months.
The major indexes are coming off a positive week. Last week was the Dow and S&P 500's first up week -- and the Nasdaq's second -- in the past five.
The major force on Wall Street is second-quarter earnings.
"We have a very heavy earnings calendar, light economic news calendar," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Company. "The name of the game is earnings."
Companies have beat analysts' estimates by more than in other quarters, according to Ed Clissold, senior global analyst at Ned Davis Research, and that sentiment is supporting stocks Monday.
"The fact that companies haven't come out with the dire earnings that were seen in the first quarter is a positive sign," he said.
Betting on recovery: Wall Street is using the second-quarter financial reports to set expectations for the pace of the economic recovery.
Investors "are looking at incremental changes in the earnings reports to give them a clue as to how companies are positioned to rebound when the economy starts to pick up some forward momentum," said Dickson.
A report from Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) released Monday increased its 2009 target for the S&P 500 index to 1060 from 940, a 13% jump in the index.
The report also cautioned that "the U.S. economic backdrop represents the most significant risk to our equity market forecast," and that "the risk of a double-dip recession is significant." Stocks hit their recent lows on March 9 of this year and have been struggling higher.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers beat decliners by 3 to 1 on a volume of 1.13 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat out decliners by almost 5 to 1 on a volume of 2.08 billion shares.
Earnings for the week: This week, 145 of the S&P 500 companies, or 23% of the broad index, are due to report quarterly results. Among them, 12 Dow components, including American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and Merck (MRK, Fortune 500), are set to release results.
Last week, a slew of major tech and finance companies reported either better-than-expected earnings or offered positive guidance: Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500).
"The mood of the market was lifted by the earnings surprises last week," said Dickson. Even though companies were posting weak year-over-year sales and profits, investors were focused on the fact that companies beat analyst expectations.
Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) reported earnings after the closing bell Monday. The chipmaker posted sales that fell 27% from the year ago period and net income that plunged 56% from the same quarter a year ago. Compared to the first quarter of 2009, however, sales and profits jumped.
CIT: The board of CIT (CIT, Fortune 500) has approved a deal for a $3 billion loan from bondholders in order to stave off a bankruptcy filing, according to published reports. The deal is expected to be announced later Monday.
The small and midsize business lender has been scrambling to raise money after the government said it would not provide it additional bailout funds. CIT received $2.3 billion in aid from the government late last year.
CIT (CIT, Fortune 500) shares had lost more than 80% since the beginning of June. On Monday, shares surged 79% to $1.25 per share.
The way that CIT's financial struggles have been managed have a positive impact on the market, according to Clissold.
"If you compare it to the chaos that surrounded Lehman and AIG, it shows you how far we have come," he said.
Economic reports: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) rose 0.7% in June, according a report from the Conference Board. Economists polled by Briefing.com were expecting the index to have risen by 0.5% in June, according to a consensus estimate. LEI rose 1.2% in the previous month.
Bonds: Treasury prices bounced, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note falling to 3.61% from 3.64% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Other markets: In global trade, Asian stocks rallied on the reports about the CIT loan, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ending the day up 3.7%. Tokyo was closed for a holiday. European markets ended between 1% and 2% higher.
In currency trading, the dollar lost ground against the euro and British pound. Meanwhile, the greenback edged higher against the Japanese yen, which is considered another safe-haven currency.
U.S. light crude oil for August delivery settled up 42 cents to $63.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for August delivery rose $11.30 to $948.80 an ounce.
First Published: July 20, 2009: 9:36 AM ET
Technical Updates on the STI
Overall, the week ended higher as the STI opened at 2313.44 (opening at start of week) and closed at 2430.96 (closing end of today), with an intraweek high of 2434.12 and intraweek low of 2258.72.
The week started with a strong technical correction in the first session but bounced back strongly in the 2nd session and carried on to rally and eased past the 2009 high before ending the week near to the intraweek high.
With investors generally feeling optimistic about economy from the better than expected US corporate results, the positive sentiments is likely to filter to the local scene and provide the much needed boost to push the STI higher in the next week. The string of local corporate results announcement flowing in over the coming weeks will also be closely monitored for more signs of an economic recovery.
From the looks of the daily technical indicators, they seem to suggest that the the uptrend momentum seems to be building up now. As such, it is possible that we could see the index pushing higher towards the key 2500 psychological resistance next week. Our key support meanwhile is pegged at the 2400 psychological level.
Until then, we wish you a good luck for the coming week!
Warmest Regards,
Philip Teo Chun Hwee
Associate
OCBC Investment Research
Stocks rally out of the gate
Investors react to possible deal to aid ailing lending company CIT and a strong start to second-quarter earnings.
By CNNMoney.com staff
July 20, 2009: 9:36 AM ET
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) index, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) were all about 0.5% higher at the start of trade.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. said the markets were being helped, in part, by reports of a financing deal for small business lender CIT.
But the prime driver for the markets, he said, was "optimism of a return to global growth" fueled by rising commodity prices and the relatively positive performance from the first wave of second-quarter corporate results.
"We worked our way through the first week of earnings season with more good news than bad," said Hogan, noting that the current week with also be thick with company reports.
The major indexes are coming off a positive week. Last week was the Dow and S&P 500's first up week -- and the Nasdaq's second -- in the past five.
On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average managed to tack on another 32 points, but the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite were little changed. Investors digested results from IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500).
CIT: The board of CIT (CIT, Fortune 500) has approved a deal for a $3 billion loan from bondholders in order to stave off a bankruptcy filing, according to published reports. The deal is expected to be announced later Monday.
The lender to small and midsize businesses has been scrambling to raise money after the government declined to provide additional assistance. CIT received $2.3 billion in aid from the government late last year.
On tap: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to have risen 0.5% in June, according to a consensus estimate compiled by Briefing.com economists. LEI rose 1.2% in the previous month. The Conference Board report is due out at 10 a.m. ET.
Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) reports results after the close. The chipmaker is expected to have earned 18 cents per share versus 44 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
Global markets: Asian stocks rallied on the reports about the CIT loan, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ending the day up 3.7%. Tokyo was closed for a holiday. European markets rose between 1% and 2% in midday trading.
Oil and money: The price of oil gained 52 cents to $64.08 a barrel. The dollar fell against the euro and pound, and gained versus the yen.
Leading Index May Signal U.S. Economy Nearing End of Recession
By Bob Willis
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose in June for a third consecutive month, another sign the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades, economists said before a report today.
The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.5 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 46 economists. It would be the first time the index has climbed for three months in a row since 2004.
Smaller job losses, rising stock prices and stabilization in homebuilding and manufacturing are evidence that government efforts to stem the financial crisis and lower borrowing costs may pay off. A jobless rate that is forecast to reach 10 percent and falling home values are a reminder that any expansion will be muted as consumers rein in spending and boost savings.
“The recession is winding down but the strength of the recovery remains in question,” said
Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The weak labor market is a hurdle.”
The New York-based Conference Board’s index is due at 10 a.m. Survey estimates ranged from a 0.3 percent drop to a gain of 1 percent.
A widening spread between the 10-year Treasury note, where yields rose based on mounting speculation of an economic recovery, and the overnight fed funds rate will be one of the biggest reasons behind the projected gain in the leading index, according to
Michael Englund, chief U.S. economist at Action Economic LLC in Boulder, Colorado.
Stocks Rise
A 2.6 percent gain in the average level of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index in June from the prior month also contributed. The stock index has soared about 39 percent since March 9 -- when it reached its lowest level in more than 12 years -- as data signaled the worst of the downturn has passed.
Stocks have continued to rise this month, with the S & P 500 adding another 2.3 percent since the end of June, on stronger-than-expected bank earnings and more signs the economy is stabilizing.
The leading index probably got more support from a decline in average weekly initial
jobless claims in June to 616,000 from 627,000 in May, as firings slowed.
Increases in home construction will also contribute. Building
permits rose 8.7 percent in June from the prior month, the biggest gain in a year, the Commerce Department said last week.
Brighter Outlook
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg from July 2 to July 8 projected the U.S. economy will grow at an average 1.5 percent pace in the second half of the year after falling at an estimated 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter. They also said the jobless rate will surpass 10 percent by early 2010.
Seven of the 10 indicators for the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times.
The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods, and the money supply adjusted for inflation.
Bloomberg News
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LEI
MOM%
======================================
Date of Release 07/20
Observation Period June
--------------------------------------
Median 0.5%
Average 0.5%
High Forecast 1.0%
Low Forecast -0.3%
Number of Participants 46
Previous 1.2%
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Action Economics 0.5%
AIG Investments 0.5%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 0.8%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 0.4%
Argus Research Corp. 0.7%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 0.2%
Bantleon Bank AG 0.6%
Barclays Capital 0.5%
BBVA 0.8%
BMO Capital Markets 0.4%
BNP Paribas 0.5%
Capital Economics 0.5%
Commerzbank AG 0.3%
Credit Suisse 0.6%
DekaBank 0.5%
Desjardins Group 1.0%
Deutsche Bank Securities 0.5%
Deutsche Postbank AG 0.3%
DZ Bank 0.4%
First Trust Advisors 0.9%
FTN Financial 0.6%
Helaba 0.5%
HSBC Markets 0.8%
IDEAglobal 0.4%
IHS Global Insight 0.9%
Informa Global Markets 0.4%
ING Financial Markets 0.5%
Insight Economics 0.8%
Johnson Illington Advisor 0.6%
Landesbank Berlin 0.3%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 0.5%
Merrill Lynch 0.2%
Moody’s Economy.com 0.8%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 0.8%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 0.5%
Nomura Securities Intl. 0.5%
PNC Bank -0.3%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 0.7%
Schneider Foreign Exchang 0.0%
Stone & McCarthy Research 0.5%
TD Securities 0.5%
UniCredit Research 0.8%
Wells Fargo & Co. 0.8%
WestLB AG 0.5%
Westpac Banking Co. 0.4%
Woodley Park Research 0.8%
=====================================
To contact the reporters on this story:
Bob Willis in Washington
bwillis@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 20, 2009 00:00 EDT
Stocks, Oil Rise on Optimism Earnings Show Slump Is Bottoming
By Justin Carrigan
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks, oil and emerging-market currencies rose, sending the yen and the dollar lower on optimism improved corporate earnings will show the global economy is bottoming.
Europe’s
Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed more than 1 percent as of 9:44 a.m. in London, gaining for a sixth straight day, the longest winning streak since March. Crude oil added 1.5 percent for a fourth day of gains. The ruble strengthened 1.9 percent against the dollar, leading a rally in emerging-market currencies.
About 76 percent of companies in the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that have reported earnings since July 8 beat analysts’ estimates.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India’s largest software exporter, climbed 16 percent after its earnings topped estimates. Stocks also gained on optimism lender CIT Group Inc. will get emergency loans from creditors to avert bankruptcy.
“Corporate profits are beating expectations by their widest margins in a year, pushing most equity markets within a whisker of new year-to-date highs and the dollar toward its 2009 lows,”
John Normand, head of global currency strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, wrote in a research note.
The yen fell 1.7 percent against the New Zealand dollar and 1.6 percent against the Australian dollar. It dropped 1.5 percent compared with the pound. The
U.S. dollar declined against every major currency except the yen, and Normand said he expects the U.S. currency to extend its drop this month.
Emerging Markets
All 22 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg except Israel’s shekel advanced against the dollar. Malaysia’s ringgit led gains in Asia, rising 1 percent, while South Africa’s rand appreciated 0.9 percent on the rally in commodities and after Absa Group Ltd. Chairwoman
Gill Marcus was named as successor to central bank Governor
Tito Mboweni.
Emerging-market stocks climbed for a fifth day, the longest stretch of gains in 10 weeks.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 2.2 percent to the highest intraday level since June 3. Tata posted the steepest advance in the 22-country gauge after saying first-quarter profit rose 23 percent on lower costs and a weaker dollar that boosted the value of overseas earnings.
Oil for August delivery rose 93 cents to $64.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Refiners in China, the world’s second-largest oil user, raised their operating rates to a 16- month high, according to CBI China, a Shanghai-based commodities researcher.
Six-Day Gain
The MSCI World Index, a measure for 23 developed nations, climbed 0.7 percent as basic-resource producers and financial firms increased. The gauge is up for a sixth straight day, the longest stretch of gains since May. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.3 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan jumped 2.8 percent. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.
Caterpillar Inc.,
Microsoft Corp. and American Express Co. are among companies scheduled to report results this week. Analysts forecast that earnings in the S&P 500 dropped 33 percent on average in the second quarter.
Treasuries fell for a second day, sending the
yield on the benchmark 10-year note up 4 basis points to 3.69 percent, the highest level since June 22, as traders bet an index of U.S. leading indicators increased in June for a third month.
The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months probably climbed 0.5 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 46 economists. It would be the first time the index has advanced for three consecutive months since 2004.
CIT Jumps
The U.S., Europe and Japan are grappling with their first simultaneous recessions since World War II after the collapse of subprime mortgages two years ago froze credit markets, spurring about $1.5 trillion in losses and writedowns at financial firms. The U.S. economy will shrink 2.5 percent this year, after growing 1.1 percent last year, according to the median of 61 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News.
CIT, which failed to win additional financial support from the U.S. government last week, jumped 80 percent in Frankfurt trading, following a 54 percent slump last week.
Expectations of a deal between CIT and its bondholders “has helped lift investor confidence further after positive earnings reports from the U.S. last week,”
Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, said in a report today.
Improving sentiment in European credit markets sent default swaps on the high-yield Markit iTraxx Crossover index down by 17 basis points to a five-week low of 685, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices. Credit-default swaps, which are used to hedge against losses and speculate on credit quality, also declined for banks and insurers, with the Markit iTraxx Financial index dropping 5.5 basis points to 101, the lowest since the gauge started trading in March.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Justin Carrigan in London at
jcarrigan@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 20, 2009 05:20 EDT
Earnings goose a rally - for now
The early batch of report cards from Corporate America have revived the dormant stock market. But major companies in the week ahead could kill the optimism.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 19, 2009: 2:37 PM ET
The first week of major quarterly financial results has come and gone, leaving investors more confident about the economic outlook -- and stocks 7% higher.
But the S&P 500's first up week in five has merely left stocks right back where they were a month ago. That's about 40% higher than the low point of 2009.
"Investors are dipping their toes in the water, but not diving in 100%," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO at KDV Wealth Management. "Earnings so far have brought some upside surprises, but we'll need to see that continue, supported by the economic news."
The week ahead brings a smattering of economic news, including reports on housing and the jobs market. But the main focus is the quarterly results.
This week, 145 of the S&P 500 companies will report results, or 23% of the broad index. American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) are among the 12 Dow components that are due to release results.
Influential tech leaders Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) and Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) are also on the docket.
Investors will also keep an eye on troubled small business lender CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500), which is fighting to stave off bankruptcy. The company, which reports results on Thursday, is reportedly in talks with JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) about getting a loan.
Second quarter underway
Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) all reported better-than-expected results or issued improved forecasts last week.
Those reports helped draw investors back into the market. Better-than-expected readings on retail sales and housing -- and an improved economic outlook from the Federal Reserve -- helped as well.
But beyond financial and technology, enough other companies either missed expectations or lowered estimates so as to keep the overall outlook for earnings little changed.
S&P 500 companies are expected to see profits fall 35.2% versus a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters. Last week, the forecast was for a drop of 32.7%.
"Relative to expectations, it's been a good start," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters. "Companies are beating estimates and doing it by a wide margin, with the caveat that we have only seen 10% of the reports."
Reported results are beating estimates by an average of 11.2%, versus the long-term historic average of 1.7%, Butters said. But on the downside, only 55 of the 500 companies have reported results so far.
"Now we're going to really get into the heart of the earnings season and it will be important to see if this trend can hold up," he said.
With stocks once again gripping the top of a 40% rally off the lows, the trend better hold up.
Results
Monday: Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) reports results after the close. The chipmaker is expected to have earned 18 cents per share versus 44 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
Tuesday: Five Dow components report results in the morning, including Coca-Cola, which is expected to have earned 89 cents per share versus $1.01 a year earlier.
Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) is thought to have earned 22 cents per share versus $1.74 a year ago. Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 77 cents versus 86 cents a year ago. United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) likely earned $1.04 versus $1.38 a year ago. DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) likely earned 53 cents versus $1.11 a year ago.
After the close, Apple is expected to report a profit of $1.16 per share versus $1.19 a year ago. Fellow tech leader Yahoo is expected to have earned 8 cents per share versus 10 cents a year ago.
Wednesday: Dow component Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), due in the morning, is expected to have earned $1.21 per share versus $1.16 a year ago.
Delta Air Lines (DAL, Fortune 500) is expected to report a loss of 27 cents per share versus a profit of 35 cents a year ago.
Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) are all also due to report.
Thursday: Three Dow components are due to report before the start of trading.
3M (MMM, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 94 cents per share versus $1.39 a year ago. McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 96 cents versus 94 cents a year ago. AT&T (T, Fortune 500) is thought to have earned 51 cents versus 76 cents a year ago.
After the close, Dow component American Express is expected to have reported a profit of 28 cents per share versus 56 cents a year ago.
Dow component Microsoft is expected to report a profit of 36 cents per share versus 46 cents a year ago.
Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) reports results after the close.
Friday: No market-moving financial results are due Friday.
Economy
Monday: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to have risen 0.5% in June, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists. LEI rose 1.2% in the previous month. The Conference Board report is due shortly after the start of trading.
Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to Congress this week, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday and the Senate Wednesday.
Wednesday: The weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is due shortly after the start of trading.
Thursday: June existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors is due after the start of trading. Sales are expected to have risen to a 4.80 million unit annual rate in June from a 4.77 million unit rate in May.
Also, the Labor Department releases the weekly jobless claims report before the start of trading.
Friday: The University of Michigan releases its revised July consumer sentiment reading. Sentiment is expected to hold steady at 64.6. 
First Published: July 19, 2009: 8:23 AM ET
U.S. Stocks Post Biggest Gain Since March, End Four-Week Slump
By Lynn Thomasson
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, propelling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the
biggest weekly advance since March, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Intel Corp. beat analysts’ estimates and reports on manufacturing and retail sales signaled the economy is improving.
Goldman Sachs surged 11 percent to the highest price since September after reporting
record profit of $3.44 billion. Also, analyst
Meredith Whitney gave the bank the only “buy” rating among eight companies she covers.
Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, added 17 percent and completed a seven-day rally as it reported twice as much profit as analysts forecast.
The S&P 500 rose 7 percent to 940.38 for the second- steepest weekly gain of 2009. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 597.42 points, or 7.3 percent, to 8,743.94. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies soared 8 percent to 519.22.
“We’re bullish,” said
Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis. “Between now and the end of 2010, we’re looking for the market to be up at least 25 percent.”
The S&P 500 has added 61.25 points since July 10, almost erasing the 67.08-point retreat from the prior four weeks, as Goldman Sachs, Intel and
Johnson & Johnson helped allay concern that equities had risen faster than the outlook for corporate profits. S&P 500 companies that reported second-quarter results since July 8
topped estimates by 16 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Thirty out of 38 beat projections.
‘Relatively Sanguine’
The Chicago Board Options Exchange
Volatility Index, used as a gauge of investors’ concern, tumbled 16 percent to 24.34 for the steepest weekly decline since December. All of the S&P 500’s 10
industries rose this week, with technology companies having the biggest gain.
“The picture looks pretty good,”
Jack Ablin, who oversees $60 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Outlooks are relatively sanguine.”
Goldman Sachs jumped 11 percent to $156.84. Whitney, who correctly predicted in 2007 that Citigroup Inc. would cut its
dividend, said Goldman Sachs will probably advance to $186.
Financial stocks soared even as CIT Group Inc., the 101- year-old lender facing bankruptcy, plunged 54 percent to 70 cents after failing to receive federal guarantees for its bonds.
Red Hat Inc., the biggest seller of Linux operating systems, was picked to replace CIT, which finances about 1 million businesses, in the S&P 500 after the close of trading July 24.
‘For Real’
Intel increased 17 percent to $18.79. The company also predicted third-quarter revenue above analysts’
estimates, indicating that shoppers in Asia are helping reignite demand for personal computers.
“Earnings have definitely driven the market,” said
Russell Rolnick, who helps oversee about $1.2 billion at Lenox Advisors Inc. in New York. “What’s going to show that these numbers are for real is if we see unemployment start to slow down.”
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since January, while retail sales rose more than economists estimated. Government reports also showed that industrial production shrank less than forecast and a New York regional factory gauge had the smallest contraction in more than a year, a sign that manufacturing is on the verge of stabilizing.
GE Drops
General Electric Co. dropped 6.1 percent yesterday, the most in three months, to $11.65 after second-quarter sales trailed projections. The maker of jet engines and medical imaging machines gained 8.1 percent for the week as the better- than-estimated economic reports lifted industrial companies.
Almost 150 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report results next week, including Apple Inc., Coca-Cola Co., McDonald’s Corp., Microsoft Corp. and
Morgan Stanley. Analysts estimate profits fell 33 percent in the second quarter and will drop 20 percent in the current period.
The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose in June for a third consecutive month, another sign the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades, economists said before a July 20 report.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Lynn Thomasson in New York at
lthomasson@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 18, 2009 08:00 EDT
Actually i also think it will move further up to test 2500 next week after the consolidation for the past one over month. I think some fund manager trying to shoo ppl from buying, trying to surppress the rising price and start accumulating "cheap" counter before recommending to ppl to buy again to push further upwards.
Hope we are correct.....
Analysts gave motherhood statement because they need to submit the write-up by press time. What's go up will definitely come down -- the difference is to "ride the wave" - favourite quote.
I tink opposite.. earning season is the time where shares can rise after consolidation for 1 1/2 - 2 mths for some of counters.
| Singapore shares likely to fall next week: analyst |
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Fri, Jul 17, 2009
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SINGAPORE - Singapore shares are likely to fall next week after recent sharp gains fuelled by Wall Street's rally, analysts said.
"The market may have got ahead of itself on US earnings excitement. There are still a lot of earnings to come, a lot of potential for negative surprises," said a local house trader.
The main Straits Times Index (STI) was boosted by a bull run on Wall Street, which on Thursday saw US share prices rallying for a fourth straight session on better-than-expected corporate earnings by top firms, dealers said.
However, Phillip Securities technical analyst Phua Ming-Weii said the recent upswing on the STI would be tempered by profit-taking amongst traders.
"The recent rally has been rather sharp and we are beginning to see profit-taking come into the markets," the analyst said.
The STI closed Friday at 2,430.96, up 122.98 points or 5.33 percent from the previous week.
Average volume was 1.47 billion shares worth 1.34 billion Singapore dollars (920 million US), compared with 1.25 billion shares worth 1.15 billion dollars the week before.
- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this story -
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SINGAPORE'S exports fell the least in nine months in June, as it emerges from its deepest recession.
Non-oil domestic exports declined a seasonally adjusted 5.2 per cent in June, compared to the previous month's 5.3 per cent increase.
From a year ago, non-oil domestic exports declined by 11 per cent in June, after contracting 12 per cent in May, the trade promotion agency IE Singapore said on Friday. Economists had expected a 1.3 per cent increase, according to Bloomberg news.
Electronics shipments dropped 21.5 per cent in June from a year earlier, the smallest decline since November, following a 21.8 per cent decline in May.
Non-electronics shipments, which include petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, fell 4.6 per cent in June from a year earlier. Pharmaceutical shipments gained 1.1 per cent.
Singapore earlier this week raised its economic forecast for 2009 even as it warned of a 'weak recovery susceptible to downside risks.' The government credits a surge in pharmaceutical output and inventory restocking of electronics for manufacturing's best performance in five quarters in the three months ended June.
'While we probably have seen the worst of the collapse in external demand, Singapore exports are likely to still see weakness, especially in electronics and petrochemical products,' Alvin Liew, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore told Bloomberg news.
The economy expanded an annualised 20.4 per cent last quarter from the previous three months, the first growth in a year. From a year earlier, it shrank 3.7 per cent.
Singapore's trade ministry said the manufacturing improvement in the second quarter may not be sustained.
'Rising unemployment and reduced household spending in the advanced economies such as the US and the Eurozone reflect continued weaknesses in the global economy,' the trade ministry said this week. 'At this juncture, there is no evidence yet of a decisive improvement in final demand.'
Asian Stocks Head for First Weekly Gain in Three; Nomura Gains
By Jonathan Burgos
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index set for its first weekly gain in three, as economist
Nouriel Roubini said the worst of the financial crisis is over and reiterated that the recession may end this year.
Mitsubishi Estate Co., Japan’s biggest property developer by market value, rose 4 percent after Barclays Plc gave the company its top “overweight” rating.
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s largest brokerage, gained 2.5 percent after the Nikkei English News said the nation’s investment banking revenue rose.
Macquarie Countrywide Trust jumped 13 percent in Sydney after selling a stake in U.S. properties.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent to 103.17 as of 1:06 p.m. in Tokyo, taking its gain this week to 2.5 percent. The gauge has rallied 46 percent from a five-year low on March 9 amid optimism stimulus policies around the world will revive the global economy.
“Sentiment has been gaining momentum following positive economic and earnings news,” said
Michiya Tomita, who helps manage $61 billion at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co in Hong Kong. “Most of the good news has been priced in. Investors will be looking for more catalysts in the next few weeks as companies report earnings.”
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent, while Hong Kong’s
Hang Seng Index gained 1.3 percent. Taiwan’s
Taiex Index climbed 1.2 percent. Indonesia’s
Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.4 percent after explosions rocked two hotels in the city.
Orient Overseas (International) Ltd., Hong Kong’s largest container line, surged 52 percent, rebounding from a 32 percent plunge yesterday that analysts said may have been caused by a trading error.
Nintendo Co., which gets 43 percent of its sales from the U.S., fell 1.2 percent after video-game sales in the U.S. fell by most in nine years last month.
Worst Is Over?
Futures on the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.3 percent. The gauge reversed a loss of as much as 0.6 percent to end the day 0.9 percent higher on Roubini’s comments.
“The freefall of the economy has stopped,” the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis said at a conference in the city. “There is light at the end of the tunnel. And the light at the end of the tunnel for once is not the one of an incoming train.”
After the close of trading, Roubini said his
comments were a reiteration of his view that the contraction would last 24 months.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen
this week as government reports showed economic growth accelerated in China and U.S. manufacturing improved. Singapore also upgraded its forecast for gross domestic product. Intel Corp. forecast sales that beat analyst estimates, while International Business Machines Corp. yesterday raised its profit forecast.
“Improved investor risk appetite is being reflected in rising stocks,” said
Juichi Wako, a senior strategist at Tokyo- based Nomura Holdings Inc. “The market is starting to surmise that U.S. earnings will not be as weak as forecast.”
Rising Valuations
Stocks on the
MSCI Asia Pacific Index are trading at an average 43 times reported earnings, up from the 15 times shares were trading at during the market’s trough in March. Companies on the S&P 500 are currently at 14 times profit.
Finance stocks accounted for 47 percent of the MSCI index’s advance today. Mitsubishi Estate jumped 4 percent to 1,472 yen.
NTT Urban Development Co., which manages properties for Japan’s phone monopoly, added 2.7 percent to 88,000 yen.
Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., the country’s No. 3 developer, climbed 2.9 percent to 1,628 yen.
Takashi Hashimoto, a Barclays analyst in Tokyo, assigned “overweight” recommendations to all three companies in new coverage.
Nomura added 2.5 percent to 732 yen. Japanese investment bank commission revenue in the quarter ended in June rose 90 percent to $874 million from a year earlier, Nikkei English News reported, citing research firm Dealogic.
Macquarie Countrywide climbed 13 percent to 58 Australian cents. The company agreed to sell its 75 percent interest in a U.S. portfolio of 86 properties for $1.3 billion.
Slumping Sales
Nintendo, the maker of Wii game consoles, declined 1.2 percent to 25,640 yen.
Sony Corp., the maker of PlayStation game consoles, slipped 0.9 percent to 2,265 yen.
Total U.S. revenue from gaming hardware, software and accessories tumbled 31 percent, the largest drop since September 2000 and prolonging the contraction for a fourth month, according to
NPD Group Inc.
June sales of Sony’s PlayStation 3 fell 59 percent, while those of Nintendo’s Wii console slumped 46 percent, NPD said.
Orient Overseas surged 52 percent to HK$35 following yesterday’s 32 percent plunge. The company had “no clue” what caused the decline, spokesman Stanley Shen said.
“We are not aware of any fundamental change in the company or the industry to cause the sharp decline,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst
Tom Kim said in a research note today, reiterating his “buy” rating on the stock. It may have been a “trading glitch,” he wrote.
To contact the reporter for this story:
Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at
jburgos4@bloomberg.net.
A news clipping to share :
European Insurers Threaten To Dump Stocks And CDOs Under New Mark-To-Market Rules
French and German insurance companies are fighting back against proposed changes to accounting rules that they say would require them to dump stocks and structured products from their portfolio. Markets would obviously be roiled if these big institutional investors woound up dumping securities en masse.
At issue is a change proposed by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to the way financial institutions value securities. The IASB published a proposed to change IAS 39 yesterday. It would allow financial firms to value bonds and other fixed income securities with fixed maturities should be valued at cost. Stocks and structured products, however, would be marked-to-market.
The German insurers have said this rule would require them to dump the stocks they hold in their portfolio, since the effects of market volatility on their capital position would be unbearable. So far the finance ministers of Germany and France support the insurers, who are calling for softer, more flexible rules. The European Commission is reportedly supporting the IASB.
So the mark-to-market wars continue.
(via EuroIntelligence and FT Deutchland)
My own word : The bank that benefited the system "mark-to-market" most is US bank Welfarco and its share shot up overnight few months ago. Am still trying to understand how this system works.
Thanks god it is dow up day and friday. time to accumulate more.time to be greedy when people fear over the weekend.
MAS money or our money? anyhow buy share, say long term, buy high then sell low. say investment objective have change,
they are playing money not their, so can tikam tikam.
push it up then release bad new :P
Could be one of the reasons liao. In today's BT.
MAS posts $9.2b loss - its first ever
Investment losses in FY08 mostly from its equity portfolios
By ANNA TEO
(SINGAPORE) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has not been spared the ravages of the global financial crisis - the central bank posted its first ever loss of $9.2 billion at the close of its 2008 financial year in March, largely from declines in its equity portfolios.
TOKYO
JAPANESE share prices opened higher on Friday, with the benchmark Nikkei-225 index rising 69.70 points, or 0.75 per cent, to 9,413.86 in the first minute of trading.
KUALA LUMPUR
At 9.30am today, there were 130 gainers, 80 losers and 139 counters traded unchanged on the Bursa Malaysia.
The FBM-KLCI was at 1,109.75 up 0.87 of a point, the FBM2BRD was at 4,858.18 up 3.04 points, and the FBMEmas was at 7,494.83 up 11.14 points.
Turnover was at 127.188 million shares valued at RM110.041 million (S$44.7 million).
