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http://www.theedgesingapore.com/component/content/40043.html?task=view
Don’t sell into Thai Beverage rally: CIMB
| Written by Dow Jones & Co, Inc |
| Thursday, 20 September 2012 13:18 |
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Don’t sell into ThaiBev’s share-price rally, CIMB says. It believes Wednesday’s 13.0% share-price surge was a delayed reaction to easing concerns about a potential gearing burden, adding it was surprised the stock didn’t rally on Sept. 14 after the F& N offer came from the family and not the listed company.
“With ‘The Heineken pact,’ it is now more likely that ThaiBev will gain control of F& N’s beverage brands and network. Unless a competing offer for F& N emerges in the next two weeks, ThaiBev/TCC has a good chance of gaining control of F& N and reaping the benefits of beverage business’ synergies without having to bear the debt burden.”
But it notes, it doesn’t discount the possibility of a competing F& N bid, even with Heineken out of the picture. Despite APB being F& N’s prized asset, CIMB doesn’t view the loss as a negative as F& N’s beverage business is equally valuable and complements ThaiBev’s fast-growing domestic non-alcoholic beverage business.
ThaiBev’s stock remains attractively valued at 15x 2013 P/E, it says, noting APB was purchased at 35x P/E. “The spirits business alone is worth more than the current share price.” It keeps an Outperform call with $0.60 target. The stock is down 1.3% at $0.385.
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In case you are interested, I posted about the potential scenarios regarding the FNN saga between TCC (owner of THBEV) and OUE in the FNN forum.
SK888 - you are absolutely right. F & N shares will drop below 8.88 and I think OUE comes in just as a ploy to ask for higher bid from Th Bev.
If Kirin collaborate with ThBev, the offer will become unconditional and F & N will be done at 8.88
Still no news from OUE and F & N should be dropping further.
skk888 ( Date: 30-Oct-2012 07:42) Posted:
Contrary to your thoughts, I think F&N price will drop if thaibev managed to gather 50% of the shares as the offer becomes unconditional. They need not get the whole of 100% of all shares, so whoever is holding to f&n above $8.88 will make a loss.
F&n directors who are shareholders also mentioned they will not sell their shares unless the offer turns unconditional. That is, once 50% is hit, more shareholding will come in for thaibev.
flyfox ( Date: 30-Oct-2012 07:31) Posted:
assuming if F& N hits 8.88 and ThBev managed to successfully acquire 50% of it, i believe F& N shares will go up from $8.88.
So F& N shareholders are actually hoping ThBev will take over so they can profit from the rise. So they are keeping their shares.
The only group of people left who will give up their shares are those who believe that a takeover will not happen and afraid their share price will drop after 8th Nov if acquire nt successful.
Lets see if they form the 15% :)
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Contrary to your thoughts, I think F&N price will drop if thaibev managed to gather 50% of the shares as the offer becomes unconditional. They need not get the whole of 100% of all shares, so whoever is holding to f&n above $8.88 will make a loss.
F&n directors who are shareholders also mentioned they will not sell their shares unless the offer turns unconditional. That is, once 50% is hit, more shareholding will come in for thaibev.
flyfox ( Date: 30-Oct-2012 07:31) Posted:
assuming if F& N hits 8.88 and ThBev managed to successfully acquire 50% of it, i believe F& N shares will go up from $8.88.
So F& N shareholders are actually hoping ThBev will take over so they can profit from the rise. So they are keeping their shares.
The only group of people left who will give up their shares are those who believe that a takeover will not happen and afraid their share price will drop after 8th Nov if acquire nt successful.
Lets see if they form the 15% :)
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assuming if F& N hits 8.88 and ThBev managed to successfully acquire 50% of it, i believe F& N shares will go up from $8.88.
So F& N shareholders are actually hoping ThBev will take over so they can profit from the rise. So they are keeping their shares.
The only group of people left who will give up their shares are those who believe that a takeover will not happen and afraid their share price will drop after 8th Nov if acquire nt successful.
Lets see if they form the 15% :)
in any case, thaibev will in favourable situation and px will cheong when mkt back in rally approaching year end...........
interesting situation. Left abt 10 days fr the whole saga to end...ha
Let continue monitor how the GAME end....cheers
flyfox ( Date: 29-Oct-2012 21:37) Posted:
I believe if UOE cant make a counter offer, F& N shares will hit 8.88 before 8 Nov and maybe people will take up Thai's offer.
He extending to 8 Nov without any counter offer shows that he is quite confident that UOE wont come out with a better counter offer i guess :)
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I believe if UOE cant make a counter offer, F& N shares will hit 8.88 before 8 Nov and maybe people will take up Thai's offer.
He extending to 8 Nov without any counter offer shows that he is quite confident that UOE wont come out with a better counter offer i guess :)
Probably due to the drag & delay. PPl are not confident with OUE bid....
SO long no news....
See how tomorrow goes....Cheers
tonylim ( Date: 29-Oct-2012 16:26) Posted:
F & N dropping to 9.09. OUE is having problem to making a counter offer >
smallcap_king ( Date: 28-Oct-2012 22:09) Posted:
| definitely a good counter |
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F & N dropping to 9.09. OUE is having problem to making a counter offer >
smallcap_king ( Date: 28-Oct-2012 22:09) Posted:
| definitely a good counter |
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definitely a good counter
just sharing my personal experiences of owing this gem....exciting experiences
Good counter needs no hard sell..
i remembered i held this gem when it was 25 cents and was climbing towards 28 cents...it then spiked all the way to 34 cents till there was no buyer and seller queue....amazing.......then it dropped back to around 30 - 31 cents for a few days... the spike happened within only in 15 minutes......freaking exciting......the second time when it cheong 20% plus from 0.38 to 0.43.......shiok!......
it may cheong like that again before you know it......holding tightly never let go......very good wide exposure into beverage play and property plays.......and regionally as well.....a gem
personal view is that 50 cents once crossed, there will be no looking back for this gem.
cheapest alcohol stock even with its recent rally......unjustifiable!
with the other non-core assets under its wing, its current px is horribly cheap!.........
just hold on to this gem......it will cheong before u know it. vested since it was 25 cents. saw its potential even without the f& n acquisitions.
Unlikely OUE is able to raise the offer above 9.25. My guts feel is that Kirin wil join force with TCC to effect an unconditional offer at slighly above or at the the current offer price - win win for all concerned except OUE
sanuks ( Date: 26-Oct-2012 07:04) Posted:
F& N +0.5% TCC Assets extends bid deadline
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Written by Dow Jones & Co, Inc
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Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:52 |
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F& N continues to bob merrily above the $8.88/share takeover bid
from TCC Assets, trading up 0.7% at $9.25, even as the Thai group said
it was extending its offer period to Nov 8 from the original Oct 29
deadline.
The move might seem incongruous, with the Thai bid already meeting a
tepid response, viewed as “not compelling” by F& N’s financial
advisors, and in the face of a potential competing bid. But the Thai
group may want F& N’s share price to remain supported if property
company OUE, controlled by Indonesia’s Riady family, decides it won’t
start a land war for the Singapore conglomerate.
Through ThaiBev and TCC Assets, Thai billionaire Charoen
Sirivadhanabhakdi controls 35.68% of F& N, including acceptances,
setting a high bar for any competing bid. Volume is strong, with $25.5
million worth of shares changing hands, boosted by a block of 1.0
million shares changing hands pre-open at $9.226. F& N appears
unlikely to rise to test its $9.49 all-time high, while this week’s low
at $9.16 might offer some support.
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F& N +0.5% TCC Assets extends bid deadline
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Written by Dow Jones & Co, Inc
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Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:52 |
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F& N continues to bob merrily above the $8.88/share takeover bid
from TCC Assets, trading up 0.7% at $9.25, even as the Thai group said
it was extending its offer period to Nov 8 from the original Oct 29
deadline.
The move might seem incongruous, with the Thai bid already meeting a
tepid response, viewed as “not compelling” by F& N’s financial
advisors, and in the face of a potential competing bid. But the Thai
group may want F& N’s share price to remain supported if property
company OUE, controlled by Indonesia’s Riady family, decides it won’t
start a land war for the Singapore conglomerate.
Through ThaiBev and TCC Assets, Thai billionaire Charoen
Sirivadhanabhakdi controls 35.68% of F& N, including acceptances,
setting a high bar for any competing bid. Volume is strong, with $25.5
million worth of shares changing hands, boosted by a block of 1.0
million shares changing hands pre-open at $9.226. F& N appears
unlikely to rise to test its $9.49 all-time high, while this week’s low
at $9.16 might offer some support.
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* OUE may have to raise more than the Thais for F& N bid
-source
* OUE trying to muster support from Japan's Kirin and other
parties
* Thai tycoon likely to extend Oct 29 deadline for bid
-sources
By Saeed Azhar and Janeman Latul
SINGAPORE/JAKARTA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - OUE, a
property firm controlled by Indonesia's Lippo Group, has hired
Credit Suisse as an adviser and is trying to raise
billions in loans to challenge a $7.2 billion bid for Singapore
conglomerate Fraser and Neave, sources said.
The move by Overseas Union Enterprises (OUE) is likely to
force a group linked to Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, Thailand's
third-richest man, to extend an Oct. 29 deadline for its F& N bid
and consider raising its buyout offer of S$8.88 per share.
F& N shares are already trading 4 percent above the Thai
offer. Thai Beverage and Charoen's investment vehicle,
TCC Assets, collectively own nearly 34 percent of the drinks and
property group.
skk888 ( Date: 24-Oct-2012 23:09) Posted:
| Yeah! Congrats to everyone here. Jingsze, finally it's now above your entry :) |
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