GMG Global   

The Hidden Gem

Average selling price for FY 2006 was $3161 per ton, FY 2007 was $3127 per ton.

Tocom prices currently traded at more than $3500 per ton!

 

 

Group's full year revenue of $166 mil; profit $27mil.

1H revenue $66mil, profit $8.5 mil.

2H results contributed nearly $20 mil in profit on turnover of $100mil!

Barring another round of bad weather at the Cameroon plantation, the group should report much better results for 2008.

Their Kalimantan plantation will greatly contribute to their sales and profits.

Closing price of 14cts on thursday almost equals to 2007 NAV.

It's definately a "hidden gem", "undervalued stock" with "fantastic profit" in the years ahead. 

I'm very "bullish" about this stock.

 

 

 

 

From "hidden gem" to "exposed dud".

From "bullish" to "bearish".

From "undervalued" to "overvalued"

From "fantastic profit" to "44.9% profit drop".

 

You're talking about yourself.

From "hidden gem" to "exposed dud".

From "bullish" to "bearish".

From "undervalued" to "overvalued"

From "fantastic profit" to "44.9% profit drop".

 

Never live in History if you want to make money from the stock market!! or Those who invest blindly by simply looking at NR price or CPO price will definietly be loser....always learn to agree with disagree, those who refused to learn...too bad...too bad!

 

 

Don't copy and paste, and leave out some words from my posts. You distort the picture! I have nothing to fear. Already took profit. In fact, it's good for me to buy from those fearful who dumped the stocks.

From Stocking's thread.

From "hidden gem" to "exposed dud".

From "bullish" to "bearish".

From "fantastic profit" to "profit warning of 44.9% drop".

 

Hahaha. Learn how to identify hidden gems that bite the dust. Learn to love certain stocks so much that will only say good things about them and hold them forever no matter what.

 

you will not get wrong if you just follow bullrun comment. He is experience investor.  I hope i can learn all his skill one day.

 

Nos,

Glad you did.    

BullRun,

Yes, you are absolutely right.  

 

shplayer,

I wasn't referring to you. In fact you're one of the more accurate and sensible FA person. I've noticed the trading ranges and taken advantage of this. I was referring to someone else starting with s.

 

shplayer, U got it!!!

So..."Whilst rubber prices have been uptrending for the since July 07, it still has not reached the peak of Jun/Jul 2006 (which was the main reason for GMG splendid FY06 results). Therefore, it would have been unrealistic to expect FY2007 to beat FY2006.. " is not a valid statement!!! Since the average for FY06 and FY07 are about the SAME!!!

 

 

BullRun,

Cool it.....no need to get all hot under the collar by using lots of (!!!!!!).....afterall, this is only a friendly discussion where we share our opinions to make, hopefully, wiser investment decisions

The FX factor is only partially to blame .......as I mentioned in my other post under 'Rubber Prices". As stated in GMG announcement para 8.1.12, the impact is about Sgd 12.2m.

The other major contribution factor is cost of Sales.....due to lower plantation yield (Cameroon) and higher outside purchases....ref  8.1.6....resulting in Sgd 10.5m higher COS.

Anyhow, if you compare the 2 half year performance, H2's bottomline is double that of H1.....which is a positive factor.

 

 

8.1.1 Turnover

For the year ended December 31st, 2007 ("FY 2007") the Group posted turnover of $166,398,041 which was $9,534,037 or 5.4% down from the turnover recorded in the preceding year ("FY 2006"). Average selling price in FY 2007 was $3,127 per ton, a decrease of $34 per ton or 1.1% from the average price of $3,161 in FY 2006.

I extracted section 8.1.1 from GMG report to to prove that the average selling price to be about the same fot FY06and FY08!!

1.1% difference in the selling price cannot caused the drop of -44.9 drop in profit!!





 

 

shplayer,

Sure...we know that GMG wouldn't be able to perform months back!!! However, the main reason for GMG not being to perform in FY07 is not what you have mentioned!!! If you look at the average rubber price for FY06 and FY07, they should be about the same. Don't believe me? See the chart!! Chart showed the history!!!

http://www.sicom.com.sg/index_sub.asp?content=charts

The main reason is the strong EURO and bad weather that I have pointed out months ago!!

 

Bullrun,

Whilst rubber prices have been uptrending for the since July 07, it still has not reached the peak of Jun/Jul 2006 (which was the main reason for GMG splendid FY06 results). Therefore, it would have been unrealistic to expect FY2007 to beat FY2006..

 

This is a case of "confused FA investors" being very disappointed that GMG performance didn't correlate with natural rubber price trend!!!

 

He he he....Nos referring to Bullrun and I as the FA ppl????

Like TA, we FA practioners cannot claim to be right 100% of the time.

However, if you refer to my post of 8 Sep 07, I estimated FY07 eps between 1.1c to 1.4c.; it came in a shade below my lower band, 'shrug'...an estimate is just what it is - an  'estimate'.......but also bear in mind, I have always advocated quick trades in this counter due to the volitility of commodity prices.

As a penny stock which is mostly cornered and trading between a range of 11c to 16c , a 1c appreciation yields between 6.5% to 9% gain. A 1c movement in this counter occurs within 2- 6 weeks cycles...although in the past 4 months there was a general uptrend.

Operating cashflow of gmg is very healthy and the 2007 cashflow totally funded its Kalimantan investment. Besides concerns over its Cameroons operations, I feel that this stock is still worth consideration.

My comments in SJ are alway on a caveat emptor basis.......and I have always advocated readers to do their own research and make their own investment decisions......so, no aplogies needed and non offered.

 

boy...those good FA people already taken profit long long time back and laugh all the way to the bank!!! This is poor result is already expected!!!

 

FY07 net profit fell 44.9% yoy. Yet another "hidden gem" bite the dust. How can FA people get it so wrong???

 

shplayer,

Yes..there is alway risk!! If the NR price trend continue...it will be worth the risk!