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Prepare for risk of double-dip recession
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The problem sometimes is people keep focussing on the STI instead of individual stocks. There are stocks out there still worth a buy. You have got to find them
At this point in time, there is no bearish divergence in the chart to indicate any possibility tat STI will re-visit the Mar low.
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:34) Posted:
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Hi kelly,
As a TA trader, I m neither bullish nor bearish, I trade based on my interpretation of the chart trends daily, I dun MFT.
Read "Trade What You See, Not What You Hear" (or for tat matter, wat others try to MFT)
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:26) Posted:
so u all still very bullish on what the market going to be?? very bullish and will go to 3000? and hit new high soon?? |
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Hi kelly,
As a TA trader, I m neither bullish nor bearish, I trade based on my interpretation of the chart trends daily, I dun MFT.
Read "Trade What You See, Not What You Hear" (or for tat matter, wat others try to MFT)
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:26) Posted:
so u all still very bullish on what the market going to be?? very bullish and will go to 3000? and hit new high soon??
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:21) Posted:
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so u all still very bullish on what the market going to be?? very bullish and will go to 3000? and hit new high soon??
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:21) Posted:
I fully agree with u.
Livermore ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:13) Posted:
| One should not rely on "sifu" but rely on oneself. Of course everyone is entitled to his own opinion. For me, it is quite unlikely market will revisit its March low. |
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I fully agree with u.
Livermore ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:13) Posted:
One should not rely on "sifu" but rely on oneself. Of course everyone is entitled to his own opinion. For me, it is quite unlikely market will revisit its March low.
learningtheropes ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 11:13) Posted:
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who is ur shifu? haha..ya i also waiting to go into blues..thanx for your help..it'll be gd to have some reference pt=)
anyway for pple who intends to invest using cpf, advise is to stick to using the regular mthly investment method..tat way u will sure be able to catch the bottom of the mkt. FAs always advocate dolllar cost averaging, but they dun practise what they learn and are highly emotional in investing as well..tats why my FA tell me to invest all my cpf in a lump sum when gahmen set the 20,000 cap..if I had stick to dollar cost averaging, I will be able to meet the cap when mkt is at the bottom and nibbled some at the btm..
they always say timing not impt..and my auntie go and buy during dec 2007, and lost like 50% on her investment (my one still not that bad)..loss of 50% for unit trust is really alot..and this is retirement money somemore..seriously dun think how she can recover beyond the opportunity cost lost from keeping the money in cpf..TIMING IS IMPORTANT for lump sum invest, but of coz mthly regular investment still safest.. |
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One should not rely on "sifu" but rely on oneself. Of course everyone is entitled to his own opinion. For me, it is quite unlikely market will revisit its March low.
learningtheropes ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 11:13) Posted:
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who is ur shifu? haha..ya i also waiting to go into blues..thanx for your help..it'll be gd to have some reference pt=)
anyway for pple who intends to invest using cpf, advise is to stick to using the regular mthly investment method..tat way u will sure be able to catch the bottom of the mkt. FAs always advocate dolllar cost averaging, but they dun practise what they learn and are highly emotional in investing as well..tats why my FA tell me to invest all my cpf in a lump sum when gahmen set the 20,000 cap..if I had stick to dollar cost averaging, I will be able to meet the cap when mkt is at the bottom and nibbled some at the btm..
they always say timing not impt..and my auntie go and buy during dec 2007, and lost like 50% on her investment (my one still not that bad)..loss of 50% for unit trust is really alot..and this is retirement money somemore..seriously dun think how she can recover beyond the opportunity cost lost from keeping the money in cpf..TIMING IS IMPORTANT for lump sum invest, but of coz mthly regular investment still safest..
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:30) Posted:
yes....same situation... so now...i just wait one chance then to huat big... well...of course this times, i will just go into blues...that is... i can pm u if my shifu asks me to buy when the timing is good...
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Now stock market is correcting, it is waiting the economy is catching up with stock market. that's why volume is so small. if 3rd quarter report is beyond expectation, a more bigger bull market coming! just personal opinion!
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 11:49) Posted:
well....see the top 20 volume stock...
volume is so so tiny as compared to last bull.....
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well....see the top 20 volume stock...
volume is so so tiny as compared to last bull.....
who is ur shifu? haha..ya i also waiting to go into blues..thanx for your help..it'll be gd to have some reference pt=)
anyway for pple who intends to invest using cpf, advise is to stick to using the regular mthly investment method..tat way u will sure be able to catch the bottom of the mkt. FAs always advocate dolllar cost averaging, but they dun practise what they learn and are highly emotional in investing as well..tats why my FA tell me to invest all my cpf in a lump sum when gahmen set the 20,000 cap..if I had stick to dollar cost averaging, I will be able to meet the cap when mkt is at the bottom and nibbled some at the btm..
they always say timing not impt..and my auntie go and buy during dec 2007, and lost like 50% on her investment (my one still not that bad)..loss of 50% for unit trust is really alot..and this is retirement money somemore..seriously dun think how she can recover beyond the opportunity cost lost from keeping the money in cpf..TIMING IS IMPORTANT for lump sum invest, but of coz mthly regular investment still safest..
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:30) Posted:
yes....same situation... so now...i just wait one chance then to huat big... well...of course this times, i will just go into blues...that is... i can pm u if my shifu asks me to buy when the timing is good...
learningtheropes ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:25) Posted:
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u know kelly?im exactly in the same situation as u haha..my pennies bought from 2007 up till now still down by more than 50%..and I am v cautious now..keep looking but dun dare to buy haha..also working and no time to run on big news..
I also hate my FA so much..last time used to trust him. Last yr ard apr, he say cpf got min cap of 20,000 cannot invest then must hurry up invest before gahmen set the cap..then i go and invest lump sum of watever cpf i have left in..guess wat happened come oct 2008? my cpf dropped so much..and my FA say dun worry keep looooong term SURE earn..ya i know sure earn but i seriously dun think it will earn as much as if i keep in my cpf and earn interest for like 5-8 yrs? the opportunity cost is high, coz gahmen actually give quite gd interest for cpf..FAs are just bullshits.. |
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美国银行与美林报告：美经济料不会双谷衰退
（2009-09-11）
（新加坡讯）美国银行／美林预期美国经济不太可能出现双谷衰退（double-dip）的情况。
据新闻稿，美国银行／美林发表报告指出，自从雷曼兄弟破产以后，政策决策者致力于消除陷入另一个大萧条的风险。报告认为，如今美国陷入双谷衰退的可能性非常小，经济和资本市场领域的联动反应为正面，这种情况还会持续下去。
当经济数据显示情况正在改善的时候，人们对经济的疑虑，正从担心陷入大萧条转向担心经济复苏不稳，或者说担心出现双谷衰退。
该公司认为，当经济复苏断断续续向前走的时候，由于没有大的冲击，经济再次走向衰退的可能性是非常小的。美国银行／美林列举了四个理由。
首先是，现在许多经济指标要低于其长期均衡水平，显示有较大的增长空间。
其次是经济和金融市场出现了较好的联动反应，在经济复苏的时候，金融状况、信心、收入和支出均出现反转，复苏起始于金融状况的改善，例如股市大幅度回升、房屋价格持稳等。明年初，通常表现比较滞后的劳动力市场也将改善。
再就是全球的经济情况也出现了改善，美国金融危机造成了全球冲击，在这一冲击消退之后，所有的国家的经济都显示改善的迹象。
最后，货币和财政当局可能继续调整政策以应对危机，例如当事实证明向有问题的经济体注入资金是有效的时候，奥巴马政府迅速地扩大了刺激计划。
报告指出，复苏的信心并不意味着复苏的力度很强劲，逆风将抵销经济活动中的一些正面因素以及政策的力量，使得复苏的质量欠佳。逆风表现在财政收入平衡表的改善还需要比较长的时间、信贷的供给和需求受到抑制等，不过，逆风毕竟不是飓风，逆风会持续受到控制，不能阻止经济复苏的步伐。
报告也指出，当周期性复苏的可能性非常高的时候，经济的长期前景并不非常乐观，例如复苏将伴随着难以解决的预算赤字、低增长和更高的“名义”失业率。
Quote from "Big Trends" below:
The numbers to watch on the SPX include 1044 for a breakout, 2060 on the Nasdaq and 9635 on the Dow.
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 09:27) Posted:
| S&P500 now touched 1044, a break above it would be bullish as per "Big Trends" chart mentioned below |
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S&P500 now touched 1044, a break above it would be bullish as per "Big Trends" chart mentioned below
Written by Scott Downing
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| Written on Wednesday, 12 August 2009 13:49
Last Updated on Tuesday, 18 August 2009 10:06
August 12, 2009
The Federal Reserve released their statement and rate decision this afternoon, and as expected, there was little change. They kept rates low at 0% and admitted to being cautious on the economic recovery for the rest of the year. They mentioned that economic activity is "leveling out", which is an improvement from the "stabilizing" wording that they used back in June.
Many people have been waiting for the Fed announcement after the recent bullish run in stocks, waiting for potential opportunity to jump on board short positions and ride the market back lower. People have been trying to fade the recent rally all the way up, and there are still many bears out there that are waiting on the next shoe to drop.
Although a sell-off in the markets is still possible, I don't think it's probable. To justify that, let's take a look at the charts.
First off, let's look at the S&P 500 Index, because it's the best representation of the overall market. The daily chart below has been very strong since the early July lows, and it broke through the 200-Day moving average (purple line) like a warm knife through butter. We are seeing some hesitation around the 1000 level, but that is to be expected at round resistance levels.
S&P 500 (SPX) - Daily
The weekly chart paints more of a compelling picture of future bullish opportunities in the markets. I have drawn three horizontal lines around 900, 1000 and 1100 which were key levels on the downside last fall and are now key levels on the upside for this fall. As you can see, the break below 900 took a while last fall, but once that support was finally broken, the fall was fast. The opposite took place this summer, as stocks ran up into the resistance at 900, hesitated, and then finally broke higher.
Now that we are around 1000, there is some concern that the markets have moved too quick, too fast. I think that we just saw a mirrored effect from what happened last fall as investors realized that stocks were not going to fall off of a cliff anymore. There is much less resistance at 1000, so 1100 could be a very distinct possibility in the next few months.
S&P 500 (SPX) - Weekly
Still not convinced? take a look at the US Dollar. The SPX and the US Dollar move inversely, so the market rallies when the dollar weakness and vice-versa. The Dollar is around near term lows, and has broken the support around 23.50, but recently rallied higher. If we get some activity in the US Dollar outside of the lower bands again, the Dollar could weaken very quickly, spurring a further rally in stocks during that time.
US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) - Daily
After looking at the SPX charts, which are bullish, and the US Dollar charts, which are bearish, there are multiple factors working for a continued run in stocks. Keep a close eye on the Dollar, and that will give you an edge on your competition. Most traders mistakenly only follow stocks, and the markets are so broad that you need to pay attention to more than one variable. When you do, you will be happy with your success.
If you are interested in trading the US Dollar or currencies in general, give us a call or email smart@bigtrends.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . I manage the SMARToptions portfolio and instituted currency options trading two months ago. Currencies are very trending, so they present great trading opportunities if you know when to jump on board.
Trade Up!
Scott Downing,
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:31) Posted:
yes...so now...i dun buy any... i wait one good channce to buy... i believe chance is coming soon....
freeme ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:30) Posted:
| Ya.. sucking our hard earn money.. making use of our emotion gov will lock our $ to part it to invest even during that lousy period when crisis just started. Then the worst part is, u throw whatever u have into it, even when market bottom, u cannot even bottom up bec ur account is under 20k liao.. see opportunity also lan lan.. suck thumb
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your
next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.
If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.
This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
Ok... ok...ok being a gentleman, not as wat u said "ungentleman", I walk the extra mile to post the chart for u to see, not bullshitting but real hardcore facts to silence your hard criticism n trumpet blowing.
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 01:19) Posted:
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Wat makes u think tat TA practitioner (I prefer not to use the word expert as u need to pay a bomb to consult them, not as all these free postings in a forum) miss the train, u r forgiven since u r so anti-TA tat I believe u dun even look at charts.
Just do me a favour, pull out STI chart (as a gauge of the mkt trend), since u know nuts about TA, let me guide u along:
Draw a line from STI bottom from Nov to end Feb/early Mar and another line for MACD for the same time-frame, u will notice tat there is a bullish divergence, fortelling an impending rally in the making, also in early Mar, there is candle reversal pattern which of course u dun know since u dun believe in TA n I m sure u know nuts about TA.
So, It is not just u always thinking u r the only smart alec tat spotted the rally in Mar, fyi, not only u made big money in early Mar, frankly. I hate to brag but since u think u r the only person tat spot the rally in early Mar n said TA missed the boat, let me tell u, i too make big profits from the Mar rally, though I initially just dun want to go around bragging, just not my style.
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:50) Posted:
freeme...did u miss the train in Mar this year???...say thanks to your laziness...otherwise, you would have become another TA expert that miss the train..
can you do a TA and FA for me for Jade and centillion...pls..i am vested here.. |
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Some predicted that double dip would happen as early as next month. What you all guys opinion.
Wat makes u think tat TA practitioner (I prefer not to use the word expert as u need to pay a bomb to consult them, not as all these free postings in a forum) miss the train, u r forgiven since u r so anti-TA tat I believe u dun even look at charts.
Just do me a favour, pull out STI chart (as a gauge of the mkt trend), since u know nuts about TA, let me guide u along:
Draw a line from STI bottom from Nov to end Feb/early Mar and another line for MACD for the same time-frame, u will notice tat there is a bullish divergence, fortelling an impending rally in the making, also in early Mar, there is candle reversal pattern which of course u dun know since u dun believe in TA n I m sure u know nuts about TA.
So, It is not just u always thinking u r the only smart alec tat spotted the rally in Mar, fyi, not only u made big money in early Mar, frankly. I hate to brag but since u think u r the only person tat spot the rally in early Mar n said TA missed the boat, let me tell u, i too make big profits from the Mar rally, though I initially just dun want to go around bragging, just not my style.
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:50) Posted:
freeme...did u miss the train in Mar this year???...say thanks to your laziness...otherwise, you would have become another TA expert that miss the train..
can you do a TA and FA for me for Jade and centillion...pls..i am vested here.. |
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Fed fund rate does affect long term pricing. Do not forget fed fund rate influences the slop of the yield curve. Short term mortage rate is price based on the yield curve and essentially a rise in rate is easy to catch those flu hidden low creditors in batch. If the rate continues it will catch more and more. Fed will step in to influence the mortgage market. Do not think Fed is toothless...
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:54) Posted:
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u must realised that they have control over short term rate....long term rate is dictated by the market..
this long term rate they got no control...and it is this rate that morgagte loan come under....if rate go up.more forclosure, more default....and that is coming soon ...
dont be naive to thk that FED can control everything....
buylist ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:47) Posted:
Double dip risk is there but Feds would be careful not to rise the interest rate too fast to cause foreclosures. Those ppl who take up mortgage loan between 2005 to 2007 have the HARM rate fixed between 2 to 5 years and come 2010, these large chunk would have to go for floating rate. If these groups are not healthy it would trigger next round of foreclosures. The would lead to loans turn bad again, CDS redemption, and all. The cycle repeats again.
Do not trust any financial advisors. Just check their portfolio. Most of young and inexperience and act like a saleman selling toilet paper. How many years of experience they have. Not to belittle them, most cant even understand finance and some dont even know the trend. Calling buy when something is falling and vice versa. They just go for product that makes them the most bucks. Even those very very big banks are like that. Gotten quarrel with them from different investment position. They dont even dare to come back after few months cos all the calls they make for me got south. I never trust them.....
May be go and meet up and drink kopi and talk c... |
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I did bot in Mar but not alot, overall still gain but no much due to a rickmers big lost. Used to use only TA in the past but nowadays, i use both, TA for my entry n exit, FA to confirm the company is okie.
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:50) Posted:
freeme...did u miss the train in Mar this year???...say thanks to your laziness...otherwise, you would have become another TA expert that miss the train..
can you do a TA and FA for me for Jade and centillion...pls..i am vested here.. |
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u must realised that they have control over short term rate....long term rate is dictated by the market..
this long term rate they got no control...and it is this rate that morgagte loan come under....if rate go up.more forclosure, more default....and that is coming soon ...
dont be naive to thk that FED can control everything....
buylist ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:47) Posted:
Double dip risk is there but Feds would be careful not to rise the interest rate too fast to cause foreclosures. Those ppl who take up mortgage loan between 2005 to 2007 have the HARM rate fixed between 2 to 5 years and come 2010, these large chunk would have to go for floating rate. If these groups are not healthy it would trigger next round of foreclosures. The would lead to loans turn bad again, CDS redemption, and all. The cycle repeats again.
Do not trust any financial advisors. Just check their portfolio. Most of young and inexperience and act like a saleman selling toilet paper. How many years of experience they have. Not to belittle them, most cant even understand finance and some dont even know the trend. Calling buy when something is falling and vice versa. They just go for product that makes them the most bucks. Even those very very big banks are like that. Gotten quarrel with them from different investment position. They dont even dare to come back after few months cos all the calls they make for me got south. I never trust them.....
May be go and meet up and drink kopi and talk c... |
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