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What a coincident, I also switch from rickmer to FSL (suffer huge losses). But I think FSL management is relative good. My own opinion dun need to switch. Who knows, FSL might win the court case and compensated.
I suffered lost by switching from Rickmer to FSL last year when Rickmer announced huge cut in DPU. I'm not sure if I should change to PST this time.
I feel that FSL management is not too bad, and at least I'm still collecting 10% return, better than a bank interest.
pharoah88 ( Date: 26-Jul-2010 15:09) Posted:
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hmm.... price seems to be supressed...with support @ 0.415... looks as if someone is delibrating supressing it to collect abit lower... anyone has any thoughts?
CHANGE SHIP to PST ? ? ? ?
PST has NEW INCOME STREAMS SECURED for NEXT 10 YEARS ? ? ? ?
The market has reacted to this disappointment. It moves south with some heavy volume 
I hope US 95c is the bottom. Otherwise, I won't get 10% return for my investment.
keepinvest ( Date: 26-Jul-2010 13:27) Posted:
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Still looks ok with this DPU. That means Divi of > ~sing dollar $13.08 (Per lot).
When time good back, it may raise UP back. Cheers.
The DPU is only 95c, what a disappointment
. I wonder if the current price has factored this low expectation in already, or the price could fall below 40c again."FIRST SHIP LEASE TRUST TO DISTRIBUTE US0.95¢ PER UNIT FOR 2Q FY10"
my realistic expectation? US1.1 to 1.2cts div for this Q and same for guidance... that will be enough to push the price up :)
The directors ever announced to revise the guidance, but so far no news. I bet that we'll still see DPU of 1.5 US cents this quarter. I think we're more interested in the guidance for the next quarter.
FSL secured the returned of the 2 vessels. Got the US$6 million cash. Buit need to minus off the money paid to secure the release of the vessels. I think still make money. Results out next week. Hopefully can maintain DPU of US$1.5 cents.
Technically, the price of FSL has stabilised the last 5 days, without breaking the recent low of 0.36. It looks like most of the bad news has been priced in.
Having said that, the stock faced resistance at the 0.42 cents, which represents the start of the bearish gap.
Also, there might still be a couple of 'stale bulls' out there who might want to sell into strength, in any rebound.
Going forward, the stock is unlikely to drop below its recent low of 0.36, baring any more bad news, eg more ships being defaulted, etc.
ALso, going forward, we would expect 'better news' to come out - eg the release of the 2nd vessel, completion of acquisition, etc.
However, I dont think we are going to be getting US 1.5 cents div per qtr that soon, as the released vessels will be deployed on the spot mkt, BUT the revenue will STILL be better than if the vessels had not be released.
A personal view - Not a call to buy/sell.
Well written piece! Keep it up.
investor ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 23:54) Posted:
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When pple fear, buy from them.
When pple confident, sell to them.
No matter what, No Fear No Greed breeds success in trading.
BUT THE PRICE IS NOT BACK TO SQUARE ONE ................
PEOPLE ARE SCARED .................
nickyng ( Date: 18-Jun-2010 14:21) Posted:
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btw, now that one ship has been released..and if the second one is in progress and assumming qtr dividents at 1.5 US cts..then the yeild for this burger is almost 20% !!! wow.... :P
hey!! that wasn't fair ! i CONTRA too !! :P
iPunter ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 16:57) Posted:
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http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_3DF14D438E87708B48257746001C3070/$file/Release_of_Verona.pdf
FSL TRUST SECURES THE RELEASE OF ‘VERONA I’
Singapore, 18 June 2010 - FSL Trust Management Pte. Ltd. (“FSLTM”), Trustee-Manager of
First Ship Lease Trust (“FSL Trust” or the “Trust”) refers to the earlier announcements1 on 5, 8
and 9 June 2010 and wishes to announce that its vessel ‘Verona I’ has been released on 17
June 2010 at Shimotsu, Japan after a security deposit of approximately US$1.6 million was
posted with the Japanese court.
Following the release of the ‘Verona I’, FSLTM will deploy the vessel in the spot market under
the commercial management of United Product Tankers GmbH & Co. KG (“UPT”), since the
vessel has been withdrawn from the lessee, Mesino Shipping Company Limited ("Mesino") and
consequently will no longer be employed under the Contract of Affreightment (the “COA”)
between Mesino and OJSC Rosneft Oil Company.
UPT specialises in the chartering and commercial management of product tankers and currently
manages a fleet of 53 vessels. UPT has the necessary customer relationships with the oil
majors and oil trading companies to ensure an efficient commercial management. UPT is also
an affiliate company of Schoeller Holdings, which is the largest shareholder of FSL Holdings
Pte. Ltd., the sponsor of FSL Trust2.
Currently, and as an approximation of expected spot market earnings, the one-year time charter
rate for product tankers of similar specification as ‘Verona I’ is about US$13,000 per day3.
FSLTM is of the view that given the market fundamentals, the product tanker market has more
upside potential than downside risk.
FSLTM has also appointed Prisco (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“Prisco”) as the technical ship manager
for ‘Verona I’. Prisco currently operates a fleet of 21 vessels and specialises in tanker operation
in ice and under harsh weather conditions. Prisco, an independent ship manager, was also
managing ‘Verona I’ and ‘Nika I’ prior to the re-delivery.
FSLTM continues to focus on securing the release of ‘Nika I’ from the Chinese court and it
intends to deploy ‘Nika I’ under a similar arrangement as ‘Verona I’ upon the release of the
vessel.
FSLTM is also in the process of renaming ‘Nika I’ and ‘Verona I’ to ‘FSL Hamburg’ and ‘FSL
Singapore’, respectively and reinstating the Singapore flag.
FSLTM will make further announcements as and when there are material developments in the
above matters.
Looks like the storm has passed.
In the stock mkt, each person has their own style of investment. Some people are short term traders, some are perpetual shortist (Eg Nick) , some are pure fundamentalist, and some are pure chartists.
To each his own - as long as you feel comfortable with your own trading style, it suits your temperament, and most importantly it makes money for you.
From my experience, it does make sense to analyse fundamentals (ie analyse the facts and not just blind faith), and also to look at trends (charting), and more importantly at the risk vs the returns for each particular situation.
From the 2008 -2009 crisis, I am sure a lot of people lost money when they hold on to stocks with weak fundamentals, but those who held on to stocks with good fundamentals would most probably be able to recoup their losses, PROVIDED they did not chase these good stocks during the heyday and got caught at the high.
Even good stocks can be overvalued at a certain point in time (That is where analysing fundamentals come in). However, I must say that it is a hard thing to do, deciding on valuations - even analyst get it wrong.
My own experience has taught me to use a combination of fundamentals and technicals in investing in the stk mkt.
If you look at the good fundamental stocks when everybody was bearish, in 2008/2009 and had relied on their good fundamentals, and more importantly, when the technical signals were clear in mar-may 2009, and buy them, their prices would have gone up many folds - just look at the bank shares, property stocks like allgreen, Ho Bee, Capital Land, Keppel Land (mar 2009 - price $1.10, I know, I bought some), Cambridge Reit (price 0.22 cents in mar - may 2009 giving a yield of 23 % !), etc - many other numerous examples.
SO, there are opportunities in crisis, just like in the case of FSL. But each person have to weigh the risks vs the returns, and even if you think it is worth the risk, do not bet all your fortune on it.
The risks must be analysed very clearly, - Do not concentrate merely on the fundamentals only.
Not a call to buy/sell.
Nickyng has the 'holy grail' in that he has found the ultimate truth of the stock market.
Because, does it really matter in the least what we think of a stock?...
Or how much faith we have in its solid fundamentals,
Or what the chart 'dictates'
Or whatever contentious reason one's mind can cook up?...
What matters is the money we can lose
by staunchly holding on to our favorite belief
In other words, why argue with your own money?
hehehe...
