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There's really little point in visualising a 'shoulder' forming...
It has not formed yet, and thus only a possibility...
But at the same time, it is also just as likely to rise ...
The danger here is we see what we want to see...
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Multiple Timeframe Technical Analysis (don't trade without it!)
Watch out! Allgreen may be forming a right shoulder!
http://mystocksinvesting.blogspot.com/2009/10/allgreen-forming-right-shoulder.html
Allgreen, Keppel Land raised to ‘overweight’ at Morgan Stanley
| Written by Bloomberg |
| Thursday, 22 October 2009 12:01 |
Allgreen Properties and Keppel Land were named as Morgan Stanley’s top picks among Singapore real-estate developers on expectations residential property prices will rise as much as 15% next year.
The brokerage raised Allgreen, controlled by Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok, to “overweight” from equal-weight” and Keppel Land, partly owned by the world’s biggest builder of oil rigs, to “overweight” from “underweight,” Morgan Stanley analyst Melissa Bon wrote in a note today.
“Keppel Land and Allgreen are our new sector top picks,” Bon wrote. “We recommend investors switch from City Developments and Wing Tai Holdings into these two stocks.”
Singapore’s private residential property prices rose 16% in the third quarter from the previous three months, the first increase in more than a year, as the island-state’s economy emerged from its worst recession since independence. The government raised its 2009 economic forecast on Oct 12.
CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s biggest developer, was raised to “equal-weight” from “underweight.” Morgan Stanley kept its “underweight” rating on City Developments, Singapore’s second-biggest developer, and its “equal-weight” rating on Wing Tai.
“Based on what the current valuations are pricing in, physical assets first need to play catch-up, which in our view may be difficult given the lukewarm macro outlook,” Bon wrote.
Big Boys, Investors and Retail Investors know very well that Allgreen is undervalued. Now, Morgan Stanley ugrades Allgreen to S$ 1.65.
Just making a simple comparison: Keppel Land, Net Asset Value S$ 2.33 per share, current share price (21 Oct 2009) : S$ 2.72, approx 17% or S$ 0.39 above its NAV.
For Allgreen, Net Asset Value S$ 1.43 per share, current share price (21 Oct 2009) : S$ 1.16, approx 19% or S$ 0.27 below its NAV.
All things being equal, there certainly will be upside to Allgreen price. And Allgreen likely to surprise on the upside for 2half profit 2009.
Good luck.
DJ MARKET TALK: MS Raises Allgreen Properties To Overweight
0653 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley upgrades Allgreen Properties (A16.SG) to Overweight from Equal-weight. Says property developer is top small-cap pick in sector as offers good upside to base case net asset value, on which target price is based. Raises target price to S$1.65 from S$0.99 to reflect roll forward of valuation to end-2010 net asset value (NAV), upgrade to NAV to reflect more positive property price assumptions. Revises up FY09, FY10, FY11 earnings forecasts by 9%, 129%, 219%. Says share price catalysts could include stronger-than-expected residential uptake and selling prices in Singapore, exposure to China, Vietnam markets. Shares +0.9% at S$1.17; FTSE ST All Share index off 0.2%%. (KIG)
Some interesting points for investors, BB or retail investors for Allgreen, which is approx 34% owned by Robert Kwok, richest man in Malaysia, through Kerry Investment. (as reported by ST about 2 weeks ago?)
Net Asset Value per share : S$ 1.43. Now share price S$1.09 is trading at 26% discount to its NAV of S$ 1.43. Greater upside, less than 2 weeks ago, it touched S$ 1.30.
EPS for half-year : 3.31cents, assuming 6.6 cents for whole year (very conservative, as Allgreen management stated that 2H 2009 is expected to be better than 1H 2009), assuming 20% growth, share price should be worth 6.6 x 20 = S$ 1.32.
No other good way, I plan to go for money cost averaging from Sgd. 1.15 till Sgd. 0.005.
yipyip ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 15:48) Posted:
|
1 October 2009
https://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2009/pr09-67.html
URA releases flash 3rd quarter 2009 private residential property price index
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the
price index of private residential property for 3rd Quarter 2009.
Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose
from 133.3 points in the 2nd Quarter 2009 to 154.5 points in the 3rd Quarter 2009.
This represents an increase of 15.9%, compared with the 4.7% decline in the p
revious quarter (see Annex A).
URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the 3 geographical
regions for 3rd Quarter 2009. Prices of non-landed private residential properties
increased by 16.2% in Core Central Region, 19.1% in Rest of Central Region and 15.4%
in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 2nd Quarter 2009,
prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 5.2% in Core Central Region,
4.4% in Rest of Central Region and 2.3% in Outside Central Region.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during
the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold.
The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 3rd Quarter 2009 real
estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are
captured. Past data have shown that there could be significant differences between the quarterly
price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes. The public is
advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
URA will continue to release relevant price sensitive information in a timely manner to allow
the public to make informed decisions. On the supply side, the statistics on private residential
units in the pipeline, which were last released in April 2009, will be updated in the 3rd Quarter
2009 Real Estate Statistics to be released on 23 October 2009.
July & Aug'09 Singapore Segment
Est Revenue: $514.1mln*
^One Devonshire (Devonshire Road)
Total Number of Units in Project: 152 units
Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 152 units
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 149 units
GFA (sf): est 179,732
July'09 Units Sold: 5 units
July'09 Est Revenue: 5 / 152 x 179,732sf x $1,732psf = $10.2mln*
Aug'09 Units Sold: 1 unit
Aug'09 Est Revenue: 1 / 152 x 179,732sf x $2,066psf = $2.4mln*
^Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road)
Total Number of Units in Project: 298 units
Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 84 units
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 82 units
GFA (sf): Per Intermediate Terrace: Gross Floor Area (Sq Ft) 2274 - 2298
July'09 Units Sold: 16 units
July'09 Est Revenue: 16 x 2,286sf x $751psf = $27.5mln*
Aug'09 Units Sold: 2 units
Aug'09 Est Revenue: 2 x 2,286sf x $750psf = $3.4mln*
^VIVA (Suffolk Walk )
Total Number of Units in Project: 235 units
Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 235 units
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 218 units
GFA (sf):est 354,488
Aug'09 Units Sold:203 units
Aug'09 Est Revenue: 203 / 235 x 354,488sf x $1,537psf = $470.6mln*
^www.ura.gov.sg
We can speculate whatever reason(s) for the current lull in Allgreen price even though I think it undervalued relative to peers. I see this period as a great period and opportunity for accumulation. Definitely vested for longer term, and not too concern or distracted by current price.
Remarks : Just my view. Not enticement to buy.
still holding, have faith in this counter.
Recommendations Allgreen Properties Limited
Consensus Recommendation: Outperform
Analyst Recommendations and Revisions:
Last Updated: 26 Sep 2009
Current:
(1) BUY: 4
(2) OUTPERFORM: 3
(3) HOLD: 3
(4) UNDERPERFORM: 1
(5) SELL: 0
Mean Rating 2.09
'If exports picked up on a strong US economic recovery in the first half of 2010,
the key driving forces of China's economic growth would still be exports, property and investment,'
(BT - REUTERS, 24 September 2009)
Ba Shusong with the Development Research Centre, a think tank under the State Council, or cabinet, told the China
Securities Journal that economic restructuring would become Beijing's top concern once it had revived growth.
'If exports picked up on a strong US economic recovery in the first half of 2010, the key driving forces of China's economic
growth would still be exports, property and investment,' Mr Ba was quoted as saying.
China has enjoyed annual growth of about 10 per cent in recent years, boosted by a surge in exports that has faded
because of the global crisis. As a result, growth this year is likely to be closer to 8 per cent - too weak for comfort
for China's leaders.
'If exports once again become a growth engine in 2010, China would be forced to buy more dollar assets for its foreign
exchange reserves. The imbalance between the Chinese and US economy would remain,' Mr Ba said.
China could be enjoying double-digit growth again by early 2010 but at the cost of the persistence of economic
imbalances, a government economist said in remarks published on Thursday.....
Est profit of $336.8mln for two projects, AG 2H P&L will be achieve very pleasing result!
est. profit todate for VIVA project is about $222,637,216
est. profit todate for The Cascadia project is about $114,221,670
My est. profit todate for The Cascadia project is about $114,221,670
Project:
The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road)
(From CIMB 28Aug09)
GFA (sf):614,095
Est ASP(S$psf)1,350
Est.breakeven(S$psf)730
Est.Profit : 614,095 x ($1350-$730) = $380,738,900
Total Number of Units in Project: 536Units
*Cumulative Units Launched to-date: 187Units
*Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 187Units
Est.Profit for Cumulative Units Sold todate = $380,738,900x 30% sold = $114,221,670
My est. profit todate for VIVA project is about $222,637,216.
Project:VIVA
Launch on 3Aug2009
Location: No. 2, 6 & 8 Suffolk Walk
(From CIMB 28Aug09)
GFA (sf):354,488
Est ASP(S$psf)1,550
Est.breakeven(S$psf)873
Est.Profit : 354,488 x ($1550-$873) = $239,988,376
Total Number of Units in Project: 235 units
Cumulative Units Sold todate: 218 units (92.77% SOLD, From CIMB 16Sep09)
Est.Profit for Cumulative Units Sold todate = $239,988,376 x 92.77% = $222,637,216
Yanlord +0.07 now, Allgreen have 30% portfolio in China project, hope it will catch up the uptrend today.
China's Property sector will remain positive !
China home prices up 2 pct in August amid recovery
Associated Press 2009-09-10
Housing prices in China rose for a third month in August, adding to signs of the country's economic recovery,
a government report said Thursday.
Prices in August climbed 2 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent over July, according to the Cabinet's
National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics.
The strength in the real estate market is in line with the country's broader economic recovery, economists said.
China's economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the latest quarter, up from 6.1 percent the previous quarter.
"The outlook for China's property sector is positive," said Sherman Chan, Moody's Economy.com economist,
in a report.
Chan said the revival in momentum was primarily thanks to record bank lending this year on top of the government's
4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan.
But some analysts have warned the excessive lending might be fueling speculation in real estate and increasing
the risk of a housing bubble.
In August, the strongest reported price gains for new homes was 7.5 percent over a year earlier in the eastern city
of Jinhua, south of Shanghai. The strongest reported gain for secondhand sales was 14.9 percent in the southern
business center of Shenzhen. That was compared with 9.6 percent growth in July, a sign that the country's special
economic zone is returning to business.
Real estate shares reacted positively with COFCO Property Group up 0.8 percent and China Merchants Property
Dev. Co. rising 1.1 percent.
Associated Press researcher Bonnie Cao contributed to this report.
China's Property sector will remain positive !
China home prices up 2 pct in August amid recovery
2009-09-10
Housing prices in China rose for a third month in August, adding to signs of the country's economic recovery,a government report said Thursday.Prices in August climbed 2 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent over July, according to the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics.The strength in the real estate market is in line with the country's broader economic recovery, economists said. China's economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the latest quarter, up from 6.1 percent the previous quarter."The outlook for China's property sector is positive," said Sherman Chan, Moody's Economy.com economist, in a report.
Sweet! :)
+0.02 now! Heading North Side.
