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Hi compwiz,
From the latest TA charts (I usually use Acc/Dist and Chaikin), this counter MAY have topped out for the short term. The charts show slight downtrending. Wait for the price trend to confirm this though.
Hi singaporegal,
SempCorp seems to have bounce off from its recent lows.
Does the technical charts shows signs of rebounding?
- RSI crossed > 30%
- Stochastic crossed > 20%
- 29/11's price crossed 14D and 25D Moving Average
- Parabolic SAR - uptrend
- MCAD crossover
Thanks.
Acc/Dist, Chakin and MACD all show an uptrend.
BT 3 Sep 2007
Competition to supply utilities heating up
By RONNIE LIM
This spells 'big-time' competition for the first time for the likes of Semb- Corp Cogen, which has been virtually enjoying a utilities monopoly there. Seraya, in a just-announced strategic move, is investing over S$800 million to build a new 800-megawatt, natural gas-fired cogen plant (replacing three of its older oil-fired steam plants). Additionally, it is also converting its two more efficient, combined cycle gas turbines of a total 750 MW to cogen units as well. This means it will have a total 1,550 MW of cogen 'firepower' when all the projects are completed by early 2010. This is double or triple the capacity of SembCorp's 815 MW cogen plant and KepCorp's newly-started 500 MW unit respectively.
One thing then is abundantly clear, competition to supply utilities - including to upcoming new petrochemical complexes like Shell and possibly ExxonMobil, and to a string of other expected investors - is going to be fierce.
Another new player, US Intergen's Island Power, is also set to enter the arena in 2009 - once it finally settles its gas supply issues - with its new S$1 billion, 785-MW cogen plant. This is not to mention that smaller players are also starting to nibble at the market, including mainboard-listed Federal International which is making its foray by building a 5MW power plant for Australian biofuel maker Natural Fuel on the island. Under its longer term plans, Federal intends to eventually build as much as 25MW of capacity here, OCBC Investment Research said in a June report.
Still, even before Seraya dropped its latest bombshell, companies like Semb- Corp had recognised the opportunities in the upcoming petrochemical investments on the island - some US$8 billion worth is being sunk into Jurong Island in the next three years - and said in February that it was investing S$58 million to build an additional 400 tonnes per hour very high pressure boiler to meet customer demand. This is identical to the 400 tonnes per hour of steam capacity which the new Seraya cogen units can also supply.
But is this enough, given the stiff competition? Supply of utilities, like steam and compressed air, has always been considered a 'proximity' game, that is, it is limited by distance of the customers to the cogen plant. But Seraya intends to change the rules of the game, with its plan to invest in a 'booster' to enhance the reach of its cogen units to customers further away.
No doubt, others will also follow suit. In the wake of Seraya's big announcement, the others will likely be also 'strategising' what they need to do next, and the market can expect more projects to come.
The utilities market on Jurong Island is set for exciting times. Big business there - including ExxonMobil and Shell - are even considering building their own cogen units, or if not, to get others in the business to operate their 'embedded' or dedicated cogen plants on their behalf.
ExxonMobil, for instance, is negotiating to buy natural gas from Borneo, to fuel a cogen plant connected with its upcoming US$4 billion second petrochemical complex here. Instead of losing this business altogether, if the cogen operators like SembCorp or Seraya play their cards right, they may just land the deal to operate such embedded plants for the oil giants.
Of course, there is also another way to beat the upcoming competition on Jurong Island. Corporates with deep pockets like SembCorp or KepCorp can also simply buy over Seraya - which could go for over S$3 billion (including its latest S$800 million investment) - once Temasek Holdings puts it up for sale in its genco divestment exercise, which is being launched this month.
THERE will certainly be much more 'heat' felt on Jurong Island come 2010 - especially by existing cogeneration players there like SembCorp and Keppel Corp - when PowerSeraya (Seraya), one of the three biggest generating companies here, starts up its first-time cogeneration (cogen) units. This is because Seraya, literally leaping from zero to hero, is set to become the largest cogen player there providing, apart from electricity, other utilities like steam, cooling water and compressed air for the petrochemical investors on the island.
Forgot to add its at 5.9. Any takes?
401 lots single transaction buyup (approx $2.36 million) @ 10.08am, but prices din hold up instead it went down...
Quotes:
From: BT
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Published July 24, 2007 
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Marubeni, Keppel and SembCorp eye S'pore gencos: sources
(SINGAPORE) Marubeni Corp, Keppel Corp and SembCorp Industries Ltd plan to bid for the electric utilities being sold by Temasek Holdings, the Singapore investment company, three bankers with knowledge of the deal said.
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| Energy asset: SerayaPower's net income rose 11% to S$130m in 2006. The gencos account for some 90% of Singapore's generation capacity. |
Singapore-based Keppel and SembCorp, the world's biggest oil-rig builders, this month contacted lenders to provide financing and advice, said the bankers, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. The units, Power Senoko Ltd, PowerSeraya Ltd and Tuas Power Ltd, may be valued about S$2.5 billion each and sold in stages over the next two years, they said.
Temasek, which said on June 19 that it is selling the businesses, revived the plan after a six-year delay to tap rising demand for power assets. The utilities account for 90 per cent of Singapore's generation capacity and may attract investors in the Asia-Pacific region, where US$53.5 billion of acquisitions involving energy companies have been announced this year.
Temasek 'will benefit from bullish investor sentiment in infrastructure assets', said Leslie Phang, who oversees US$1 billion at Commonwealth Private Bank in Singapore. 'Buyers would snap it up in a jiffy because historical profit growth of the three power companies supports the valuation.' Seraya's net income rose 11 per cent to S$130 million in 2006, according to the company's annual report. Senoko's profit gained about 12 per cent to S$133.3 million, while Tuas Power had net income of S$104 million as sales surged 27 per cent to S$1.7 billion, annual reports show.
'As a key player in Singapore's energy market, greater involvement in the local generation companies would seem a natural fit with our core business,' SembCorp said in an e- mailed response to questions. 'The decision to sell the generation companies has just been announced, and we are evaluating our options.' Keppel and SembCorp are seeking commitments from lenders to lock them in exclusive relationships because competition for funding will intensify as the sale progresses, the bankers said.
'We are keen to evaluate the opportunities that Temasek's divestment of power plants present,' Mr Ong Tiong Guan, managing director of Keppel's infrastructure arm, Keppel Energy Pte, said in an e-mail. 'If it makes commercial sense, we will participate in them.' Marubeni spokesman Daigo Noguchi declined to comment on whether it will bid.
CLP-Mitsubishi Venture OneEnergy Ltd, a joint venture between CLP Holdings Ltd and Mitsubishi Corp, plans to request proposals this week to appoint a financial adviser, the bankers said.
CLP Holdings 'has previously indicated that Singapore is a market CLP is interested in', said Carl Kitchen, public affairs manager at the company, which owns half of OneEnergy. 'But regarding the specific assets, it's too early to comment on whether CLP is bidding.' Temasek plans to release relevant information to potential bidders and the sale process could start in September, said Wong Kim Yin, managing director for investments at the company.
Temasek said in its June 19 statement that the sale will be completed by end-2008 or early 2009. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group are advising Temasek on the sale.
Temasek said yesterday it will invest 1.4 billion euros (S$2.9 billion) initially in Barclays plc, and an additional 2.2 billion euros upon the London-based company's purchase of ABN Amro Holding NV in the biggest banking takeover. China Development Bank will invest 2.2 billion euros in Barclays, and a further 7.6 billion euros if the bid for ABN Amro succeeds. Barclays raised its offer for ABN Amro to 67.5 billion euros after securing the investments.
Gas Supply Singapore generates 80 per cent of its electricity from natural gas imported from Malaysia and Indonesia. Blackouts in Singapore in November 2003 and June 2004 were caused by disruptions in gas supply from Indonesia, according to Energy Market Authority, the government regulator.
'The biggest risk is, however, the potential supply disruption of gas from Indonesia and Malaysia,' Commonwealth Private Bank's Mr Phang said, and 'rising commodity costs may put a dent on profitability'. Singapore plans to invest S$1 billion in a liquefied natural gas terminal by 2012 to meet one-third of the country's gas demand. The facility will provide an alternative supply source.
Seraya and Tuas were set up in 1995, and have generation capacity of 3,100 megawatts and 2,670 megawatts, respectively.
Senoko has a capacity of 3,300 megawatts, according to Temasek's June 19 statement. -- Bloomberg
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From DBSV this morning!!!!!!!!
Story:
corporate presentation during our Pulse of Asia conference on 11
July 07 with management focusing on growth drivers for both
Utilities and Marine. In addition, SCI?s RNAV will benefit from our
recent upgrade in subsidiary SMM?s target price from S$5.00 to
S$7.90
There was a good turnout for SembCorp Industries?
��
from new beachheads, developing greenfield and acquiring
brownfield projects and new M&A opportunities. Marine?s
earnings will be underpinned by its S$9.1bn order book with
visibility starting to extend into 2010.
Point: Besides organic growth, utilities will see growth coming
��
price of S$7.50.
Relevance: Maintain Buy with a revised RNAV-backed target
Utilities in Singapore.
Tembusu/Banyan. New petrochemical cracker plants from Shell and
recently ExxonMobil and related downstream companies coming
onstream, can potentially add 50% to existing demand from 2011. The
local gencos are coming up for privatization and SCI will be interested to
bid for one of them. The investment merits will be evaluated when more
details are released sometime after Sep 07.
There will be growth from new investments in
Utilities in the UK
customers such as SABIC and Ensus. Wilton 10, one of the UK?s largest
renewable energy projects will be completed in 2H07.
. Growth in UK operations will be underpinned by new
Utilities elsewhere.
up and will not contribute positively this year.
Operations in China and Vietnam are still being built
Industrial parks.
parks contributed S$8.1m to net profit, up from S$3.4m in 1Q06 with
better performance from Vietnam and Indonesia and absence of losses
from Nirwana Gardens, divested in 2Q06. SCI is now looking to establish a
third business park in Vietnam. The business parks provide a stream of
fixed fee income and potentially are a platform for SCI to expand its
utilities operations.
This division has displayed potential - in 1Q07 industrial
Marine ? prospects underpinned by record order book of S$9.1bn.
order book gives strong visibility into 2009 and is being built into 2010.
On our estimates, 96%, 75% and 45% of SMM?s revenue (excluding
shiprepair) in FY07, FY08 and FY09 respectively is already covered by
confirmed orders.
The
Valuation.
higher target price for SMM (Buy, TP S$7.90). Near term growth will be
driven by Marine ? on our estimates, we expect net profit contribution to
rise 53% and 37% over FY07-08 and make up 42% and 49% of Group net
profit respectively. In addition, management also highlighted that the
dividend payout policy can comfortably be around 50-60%.
Our TP has been raised to S$7.50 to take into account our
First trade today.....989 lots bought from seller at $6.00.
oil madness,
We are not comparing them on the same basis.
The environ business is the core business of Sino Environ so its performance has a 100% impact on the company.
As for SCI, the Environ business is one of the 4 core business of SCI......albeit it is currenlty only a very minor contributor to the group. So, when this part of the business takes off, it still has alot to catching up to match the current 2 main pillars....Marine and Utilities. But, growth in any of its core sectors will contribute to the overall performance of the group.
shplayer, oic.. thanks for updating on my ignorance sia... guess i too busy being WINDY to create past, present and the future "waves" for all the TA personnels to go and "calculate" and apply the wave theory liao, wah hahahaha.. bo bian, cannot sleep so must let the "joker" residing in my other dark side to come out and "breathe".. nw i can at least know something abt sci liao, hahahha..
Will the environment unit of SembCorp help SembCorp to be "as hot as" Sino-Environment?
RT,
Yes, that file was about Gallant Ventures......but SCI owns 26.8% of GV.
In fact, after the sale of sembLog and Semb Constr & Enggr, they have created a 4th core ....Semb Parks wich includes GV.....(the other 3 being Utilities, Marine and Environment)......
Decision for the Spore Power deal will not be for some time....think at least a year. So, I won't hold my breath. However, Utilities has good growth potential for SCI. .......Jurong Island in spore, UK's Teeside, Vietnam and ME (Faujariah....should contribute from 2009). Also watch out for environ.....they made hefty provisions in 2006....so 2007 will not be encumbered by this write down....and they have embarked on some new businesses....should see contributions when they take off.
It rose after JP Morgan raised its price target for the stock to $7.40 from $5.13.
JP Morgan in a research note said that earnings from SembCorp's utilities business is expected to grow after '09, boosted by expansion of refining facilities in Singapore by major customers such as Shell and Exxon.
Demand for utility services at SembCorp's industrial parks in Shanghai and the UK will also buoy earnings, JP Morgan analysts Winnifred Heap and Kelvin Sam wrote in the note.
shplayer, now only waiting for the power station deal.. hopefully sci got kena the deal, then can keep this counter for ur future grandchildren liao... vested at quite low px, hahahaha... bt hor y the acrobat file good for sci?? isn't dat for gallant?? i too backdated liao...
shplayer, my ta skills had become "invalid" for the current moment.. bt i do nt know abt the wave thing in ta as waves must be created by WIND (erm, aka me), hahahaahah.. so i do nt need to know them, wah hahaha.. early in the morning oreadi "possessed" by "joker" liao... hahaha..
sporeguy, thanks for showing us the "way"... u r a much better man... too bad i guy, or else i will "fall" for u... hahaha..
Sporeguy,
Thanks
The prices at the troughs and crests are : $364---478---430---550---474---.
1st up by $1.14, 3rd wave up by $1.20, thus 5th wave ave should up by min of $1.17. Thus crest 5th wave should be at $4.74+$1.15=$5.91 which should round to $5.90.
If it follows fibo, then 5th wave could be up by 1.618x$1.17=$1.89. Thus Luostock's fig comes from $4.74+$1.89= $6.63 which should round to $6.60 (which I think this would be the max for this round of rally).
RT,
Yah, I know you joking....but you did make a good point on the bid gap.
But, seriously, I am a beginner on charting. In this area, I depend alot on the TA experts on SJ for their opinions and guidance.
Anyway, what is your reading of the chart for the target price for this wave......mine is about 6.25 to 6.30.....Luostock says 6.60....all this is of course baring any market shocks.
Luostock,
care to share how you derived 6.60? Tks
