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shipping is still not out of wood . It may take 3-5 yrs to turn around . Not wise for long term investment . Only suitable for trading . If recession set in anytime below $1.00
TP = 1.40 based on 1X P/B for 2013 future earning, very similar to what brokerage houses had been calling.
IF the Jan 15 GRI 600 for US trade route goes through, can prepare to see nol share price reaching 2010 high.
Mersk had put a report in BT that Asia-Europe cargo spike at dec 2012 and most likely through end feb, good sign for
jan15 GRI 350 for europe route. 1Q13 gona be good if nothing bad happen from now till end feb, then in march u see the US drama
again but this time market would be cool to it since they experienced in 2011 debt ceiling scare. This friday got US job data coming, if
it is good gona boost NOL price next monday.
what is ur tp
Depending on Jan15 GRI outcome. According to NOL historical P/B chart, when the carrier return to profit, the share price hover around the 1.4P/B level.
1.4 and higher is when market think that future demand going to pick up, which in this case 2014 would be the year when demand and supply balanced out.
Demand is going to be slow this year but rate are enforced by carriers taking out ships to balance demand., so no rate war or big rate decline. Rate would just hover around breakeven rate but carriers that is more cost effective would make reasonable profit margin.
In conclusion i take 1.3- 1.4 P/B to be on the safe side but would only go in when BB placed their bet cos share currently is punted by house traders and small retailers which see seesaw price movement, no profit if doing trade might lose money so wait out.
sgng123,4Q13 r u sticking to P/b1.4 or greater
U refering to the reefer rate for US 1500 ? if so, no concern as reefer cargo is only a very small part of global US cargo.
The incoming GRI on Jan 15 more important cos it would set a benchmark for liners to negiotiate their yearly fixed contract rate.
For 4Q12, the result is only ok small profit due to no PSS and low volume.
Should be watching out for 1Q13 cos result would determine share direction for the whole 2013, highly chance earning rebound
due to PSS + 196M Nol building profit + cost saving effort in 2012. The nol building would most likely contribute ~50% of 1Q13 profit.
NOL share break the 1.18 resistance barrier now marching towards 1.2 hope the upward trend continue then u see the BB positioning for
1Q13. How high the share would go is anyone guess since nol fall from great height in 2011 > 50% fall. Trade with caution is key hit and run tactic.
usa gri is not successful.....pls sell at 1.19 or u will regret.
sgng123, what will u see on 4Q13 and 1Q14
US fiscal cliff over, the next US drama would be play out in march. From now till end Feb, excellent trading time corridor. Wait for BB
signal , then can go trade to your heart content. QE by US and Japan would help to prolong the risk on trading sentiment till March.
NOL might get a upward rerating after 4Q result in Feb, so watch out for this too. IF you can hold out till 1Q13 in May, might get fatter rewards
as big earning rebound due to 2012 Peak season surcharge + NOL building sale + realization of 500 mil cost saving in 2012
SCFI: Rate Erosion Slows as Year Ends
Carriers ended the year managing to hold on to rate increases implemented in the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific markets earlier in December, according to Friday's release of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Indexd. Although the mid-December increases began eroding almost immediately, this week the erosion was minimal, with the year ending " with an uncharasteristic whimper," according to Clarksons. The " Christmas holidays have had a dampening effect on the rate erosion," said Ben Gibson of Clarksons.
In the trans-Pacific eastbound trade to the West Coast, spot rates slipped $8 to $2,223 per 40-foot container. After declining 26 percent from late September through early December, trans-Pacific eastbound rates jumped nine percent on Dec. 14 and then gained an additional 1.5 percent on Dec. 21 prior to edging downward this week. Trans-Pacific rates to the East Coast also declined all fall, slipping 22 percent from mid-September through early December before gaining roughly 10 percent in mid-December on the back of a partially implemented mid-December rate increase. East Coast rates ended the year slipping roughly 1 percent in the final week of the year.
Shanghai-North Europe rates gained 35 percent in mid-December, lost 8.4 percent the following week and ended the year with a 1.5 percent loss, a positive result for the carriers who have struggled to hold on to implemented general rate increases in subsequent weeks. In the Shanghai-Mediterranean market, after soaring 66 percent in a mid-December GRI, the spot rate slipped 5.8 percent last week and 2.3 percent this week, an erosion but not wholesale giveback seen after earlier GRIs this year.
As Clarksons said: " Despite the holiday effect, January should start with a bang as carriers look to acheive rate increases from (Jan.) 15th. Their announced programme of void sailings is hoped to be enough to create tightness in the market."
SCFI this week stabilised drop only 10pt. US and Europe GRI on jan 15 most likely would go through.
This is abnormal as low demand but liners forcing rate on exporters by taking out capacity aka market manipulation but
shippers cannot do much as the container shipping industry is not regulated. They had to stomach any rate the liners putting out.
Price for imported goods going up soon, now even thai fragrant rice is going up by $2 per 10kg, everything price go up but not our pay.....
Don need to wish for that. IT already happening in japan. lot of hot money from europe/US dumped into japan stock market. once they are done with it, they come south to singapore and create a very big bubble on the stock market and property. then after a few months, ignite the crash and tank every singaporeans saving either thorugh stock market or property lol. A reoccurence of 1997 property/stock market crash, high possiblility since muddy water had
fired the first shot already. Temasek don had trillion to fight off those hedge fund sadly, prepare for the downward slide in 2014. gona be another 10 years of debt burden to whoever bought property now.
xing78 ( Date: 27-Dec-2012 11:29) Posted:
be careful of what you wish for. hot money speculation will only create gigantic bubbles down the road and unintended consequence.
sgng123 ( Date: 27-Dec-2012 11:19) Posted:
Check out japan stock market, everyday go up by 1.5%. it is insane they having a bull market rally. When Japan central bank go into
money printing mode, it gona get more insane. lot of big fund managers is getting out of yen and buy into japan stocks. Hope some of that
money come down to singapore and boost our weak stock market. when yen reach parity with US dollar, time for some cheap japan trip yeh. |
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15:44 another 592 lots sell down at 1.140 .... : (
14:43 hrs - Sell Down of 405 lots at 1.145...... : (
All regional shipping lines share price are in the red today : ((.....
looks like NOL is about to charge-up any moment..
be careful of what you wish for. hot money speculation will only create gigantic bubbles down the road and unintended consequence.
sgng123 ( Date: 27-Dec-2012 11:19) Posted:
Check out japan stock market, everyday go up by 1.5%. it is insane they having a bull market rally. When Japan central bank go into
money printing mode, it gona get more insane. lot of big fund managers is getting out of yen and buy into japan stocks. Hope some of that
money come down to singapore and boost our weak stock market. when yen reach parity with US dollar, time for some cheap japan trip yeh. |
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Check out japan stock market, everyday go up by 1.5%. it is insane they having a bull market rally. When Japan central bank go into
money printing mode, it gona get more insane. lot of big fund managers is getting out of yen and buy into japan stocks. Hope some of that
money come down to singapore and boost our weak stock market. when yen reach parity with US dollar, time for some cheap japan trip yeh.
Container Rate Increase Unsuccessful.... bad for the shipping lines.
Today's trading are mainly small retailers. Biggest Transaction is a sell down of 200 lots at 1.135.
Fiscal cliff issues remains. Trading carefully.
