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Good news out of US tonite. In fact US might be the best place to be at in the world, US PMI = 55.4 higher than china misery 50.4.
The job data 157K and unemployment rate 7.9% is at a sweet spot as people can keep buying stock with QE3/4 keeping pumping money.
By the way US stock market just broke 14000 last hit on oct 2007 before US recession. US housing also coming back to life and that meant more
import trade for tv, furnitures, electronic stuff which needed to be made in china/korean transported through containers.
House traders would start to panic after the US data out, they are shorting nol assuming bad data, now had to cover their pos lol on mon.
The fun part of the job data is the revised number for nov and dec 2012, NOV 161 > 241 and DEC 151 > 191, this might meant actually today job data might be 200K US labor department too pessimitic lol. Repeated of last year surge to 1.50 might be in the making watch out on mon .
Lastly don go in yet wait for fund manager/hedge fund positioning so the upward trend can be sustained not like this month go up and later sell down.
Economy Adds Another 157,000 Jobs Rate Up to 7.9%
The new year started off with an old story: Employment grew again in January but not at a pace able to lower the jobless rate.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 for the first month of 2013 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 7.9 percent, news unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or instill confidence that the recovery is gaining steam.
Economists were looking for 160,000 net new jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.8 percent.
Source: CNBC
U will make the diff nxt week
closed at 1.26. hopefully will go back up to 1.315 on monday.
sgng123 ( Date: 01-Feb-2013 13:19) Posted:
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Currently support level is at 1.26, these 2 days shortists came out in full force driving down nol down 4%.
Whenever there is buying activities at the sell pos with big q number, bid are pulled out immediately pushing stock to next bid. Typical of shortists putting
up resistance level, once they sense buying activities, they fret out lol. Let hope later in the afternoon, short covering would take place since basically
no buyers in sight all on the sideline waiting for clearer economy improvement and BB busy in japan bull stock run. Yen is at 92.2 Sing 1.242 lol mine prediction is yen would hit 100 in 6 months time, sing 1.28.
By the way NOL had become less transparent, no announcement when is the full year report date and the discontinue of monthly operational report since 2012. Other listed companies had already put up the notice date for their 2012 full year report. Very unlike of government controlled company which stress on transparency.
Thanks for the insight!
I'm hoping that 4q will be positive. Think FY Revenue most likely flat comparable to 2011. Savings matter a lot to make profit in unfavorable external conditions. Hope nol can achieve optimal operating mode going forward.
I'm hoping that 4q will be positive. Think FY Revenue most likely flat comparable to 2011. Savings matter a lot to make profit in unfavorable external conditions. Hope nol can achieve optimal operating mode going forward.
sgng123 ( Date: 01-Feb-2013 10:55) Posted:
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4Q most likely a plus due to cost saving + lower bunker price. but overral full year still a loss due to very bad 1Q result + 1 time impairment loss 100+ mil.
NOL is now on austerity mode, cutting cost here and there even downsizing fleet/ adminstration staff. With freight rate and oil stable, most likely return to profit in 2013 with the additional nol building profit 196mil. Today share dropped due to china PMI data missing economist expectation 51.4 vs 51.9.
Economy data affect nol share price a lot rather than freight rate/ oil price due to the fact demand = economy health. Pray hard tonight US job data don miss
the expectation else another down day for nol on monday. Advice is don trade/short during week before CNY, too many uncertainty share could zoom up and down very rapidly might get burnt on both ways.
pseudo ( Date: 01-Feb-2013 09:29) Posted:
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dropped as low as 1.26 as of now
pseudo ( Date: 01-Feb-2013 09:29) Posted:
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So you think its most likely a plus for 4q12 ? From your estimate it's about positive 80mil and above?
sgng123 ( Date: 31-Jan-2013 20:42) Posted:
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There will be many who will short @1.30 ... 
US 4Q GDP -0.1% on wed nite trigger it plus it is the end of jan, lot of pp who borrowed shares to trade/short closing position.
Might be a bit oversold as there is like 2 mil+ buying Q at 1.285, not much resistance at 1.29 above level if good US job data out on friday nite, stock would regain it upward momentum next week.
Tomorrow if no more negative US trade news, most likely would bounced back to 1.30 region. Short selling still strong on NOL counter as big movement is caused by a few big block of sell ( 500 - 1K lot). Look out for Feb, as nol got record of hitting high level during this period. Full year result most likely result in loss of between 150 - 200 mil would caused a short dip in share value but it recovered after getting the brokerage upgrade for 2013 future earning rebound. Freight rate stable and oil up due to better US economy so for now everything is nice and stable.
Dropped to 1.285. Wonder what happened..
sgng123 ( Date: 30-Jan-2013 17:32) Posted:
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NOL share price had been consolidating at the 1.30- 1.32 range for nearly 3 weeks.
Watch out for any major breakthrough, it could zoom up very fast in 1 week time.
With the US housing regaining their footing, upward trend might be sustainable, this friday US nonfarm payroll data offer hint on future US economy health
By the way US market is approaching 14000( 5 year record high), signal for bull market getting strong just need a catayst to ignite it then it 2007 all over again.
Today very weird lot of big trade done in 1..315 - 1.32, unable to sell down or buy up. Consolidating highly in progress.
it survival for the carriers, they had to recover 2011 and 2012 losses in 2013 /2014.
The banks lending them money for purchasing new ships would keep the heat on liners to pass down the cost to shippers.
2012 teach the carriers how to maintain profit even when there is low demand, just remove capacity and force GRI on shippers but too bad
most of the cargo in 2012 had been locked in loss making rate during 2012 1Q yearly rate negiotation ( US rate = app 1800, europe = 1350).
Now they are gona work like oil cartel and pull out lot of capacity to justify big rate hikes. We know in Feb whether a higher US freight rate is in
the making through share movement in nol. Fund managers/Hedge funds always had the advantage to know before everyone and they would buy in nol
and supported it. That why i calling hold trading till BB had positioned before we went in, safety first.
I think hapag llyod announce, G6 will all implement also. If just big bro mearsk announce rates will sure go thru.
http://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/news/news_page_28187.html
Repeat of 2012 Asia-Europe GRI US750 fired off by Hapag Lloyd in march15 2013.
If other major carriers follow suit and force GRI down on shippers, it going to be interesting might see a Deja Vu of what happening in 2Q 2012 Freight rate
but this time round rate is starting on a higher ground, might break new record.
NOL had maintained the 10% gain since 10 Jan 13. Now share in range trading mode, stagnant till 4Q result is out and rating get upgraded.
nothing much from now till post CNY, enjoy your holiday.
THE Hong Kong-Los Angeles container rate benchmark jumped by 14 per cent in week 3 to US$2,524 per FEU - the result of a partially successful January peak season surcharge - but Drewry analysts expect rates to slip after the February 10 Chinese New Year.
Drewry research manager Martin Dixon said the continued threat of an US east and Gulf coast dock strike was having a bolstering effect on west coast rates.
Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement member achieved 50 per cent of their $600 peak season surcharge returning container rate index back to where it was last October.
PSS US300 successful applied on Jan 15, would likely boost 1Q 13 net profit margin by appro 2.5% - 4.0% . NOL announced another similar PSS rate
on march1 due to the port labor unrest. If it go through due to unresolved labor dispute can add another 1-2% to 1Q13. Currently rate is 34% higher compared to Jan12, might lead to higher contract rate when they renewed it in Apr. This year got like 21 new ships to replace chartered ships retiring,
might see more cost saving later in the year. Pray hard nothing major financial shock this year, then NOL would be smooth sailing.
Nothing much this week. House traders churning shares so no trade/short this week not much money to make.
Hope more excitement coming out later this week when BoJ announce QE on tue.
Next week would be good time to trade again since it is the end of Jan and start of Feb, watch out for BB positioning ( big
trading volume + big upward movement in share price). Once that is confirmed, can trade safely and make money since BB would
most likely support share price.
After reading the news in Bloomberg, I kinda of expecting you'll post it here.. and there you are.
Thanks for all and more...
sgng123 ( Date: 19-Jan-2013 11:58) Posted:
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