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NOL

I got it rite this week nothing to trade/short, can sleep well and enjoy CNY lol. Tonite ECB meeting and tomorrow China trade data, pp taking profit /short .

IF china data point to positive growth then stock would rebound and upward momentum continue else hehe it either stagnant or go down.

Next week 3 trading days, hopefully BB come in else boring session.

 

Tight range for nol, retail shortist trying to pull it down but bargain hunter push it up. With Big players going for CNY celebration , range bound but in the afternoon short covering would occur as usual. This week had been sell in the morning, cover back in the afternoon theme very boring cannot make much money unless u borrow share and play long time short. But come march the short disclosure going to hurt shorting trading sentiment hard, everyone going for the exit to cover their shorting end feb lol. Hongkong US freight rate index reported a 4% gain, would need to double check with SCFI tomorrow. US east coast rate might go up due to G6 expanding their ship sharing program in US east coast trade.

By the way NOL reported 4Q and full year result on Fri 22 Feb 2013, pray hard + cross finger. Share can zoom up or down after friday result.

 

Noble and Nol, both spell with an " No" in front.   No going, no no, no action, no-hold-bar!!! Hehehe!!

 

NOL is going back to test 1.10 as the results will expect to be below expectation......

Short now

 

dropped till 1.25 already... Hopefull aft CNY will improve...

 

This week and next week gona be low volume for NOL, not much up/down is expected. Players had taken profit when they sold down share from 1.32 to 1.26 last thur/fri. Tomorrow maybe some short covering but volume going to be very thin. 4Q coming out late feb or early march since 4Q12 came out 22 feb last year. March going to be interesting, might see a window for  long punting  due to less shorting activites.

 

hmmm... no change yet... hopefully tomorrow will be better.

 

Good news coming out:

1. Europe composite PMI came out better than expected although still in contraction 48.6 vs 48.2, raising hope that growth is slowly picking up speed. Europe markets rebounding from yesterday big selloff. US future pointed to higher opening.

2. TSA propose transpacific GRI US$400 on Apr1 2013. This boost chance of a higher rate for US trade route in 2013/2014 service contract.

3. G6 alliance expand ship sharing program to transpacific route. This meant lower operating cost for G6 members as ship efficiency is deployed to max. Using less ships to transport more cargo = less fuel used = cost saving.

Watch out for tomorrow NOL movement, today short covering in the last 30 min due to good news from europe.

 

if u can hold, go ahead. Now is sleep mode on share trading cos 4Q result coming out after CNY, need confirmation that cost saving effort is

generating sustaining profit margin. But today STI fall 0.8%, profit taking on Spain and Italy political drama as always lol.

 

plunged to 1.250... time to buy in if going for long?

 

I am waiting for NOL 4Q result then decide on whether to plow in or not.

After 4Q result, NOL would get brokerage TP upgrade due to 500 mil cost saving drive success maybe BB would move in too.

Nowadays companies had to pursuit cost cutting to make money, the old way of anticipating future demand by expanding is over.

Hope NOL reveil more austerity measures in coming yearly shareholder meeting to boost/maintain profit margin.

More austerity = better profit margin lol.

 

It may shoot up or down to everyone's surprise since no one is really playing in view of CNY coming, and most Chinese businessmen & players have or are going to   " xiu Gong" (.休 工 了 ) for the Lunar New Year. Good to keep holding on.

sgng123      ( Date: 04-Feb-2013 17:14) Posted: Not much volume today. House traders churning, range bound since noone is trading nor short. Price currently controlled by house traders for now, everyone busy with CNY celebration...

 

back to 1.26 again. :(

 

Not much volume today. House traders churning, range bound since noone is trading nor short.

Price currently controlled by house traders for now, everyone busy with CNY celebration...

 

Didn't shoot up much today yet

 

Slight rebound from last week decline, mostly likely regain upward momentum but slow pace due to incoming full year result.

If NOL building sale profit gain is included in 2012 then < 50 mil loss expected, share continue upward projection to profitable 2013

Else full year loss ~200 mil, would cause a short drop in share price then rebound towards expectation of a profitable 2013

Left or Right share price is on upward trend but a very small chance it would be hit again by bad news US debt ceiling fight / Euro Crisis reignite.

Exact date for full year result announcement up to now is still unknown, damn army col CEO playing game of cat and mice.

Need foreign funds to sustain bull trend but they still on sideline waiting for 4Q cost saving results.....

How high would NOL go up difficult to project as profit margin swing wildly in container business, but mine bull forcast is < 2.0 for 2013 and if demand and supply balance out in 2014 then it around 2.5

 

Feb last chance to short share, come march all short selling activities would be made known after every trading day.

Take caution if you are shorting this month, Feb is where NOL would had the highest up/down, if you pick the wrong side then blood

would gushed from bank. This month i on standby mode neither trade nor short, too risky don want heart attack on CNY lol.

 

Hope it bounces back... I am waiting to sell (short) @1.30... 

alexsmith      ( Date: 02-Feb-2013 10:49) Posted: Hi sgng123, Agree with u NOL will bounce back on Mon. Btw, may I know what signals/factors u look for to  determine that the BB (fund manager/hedge fund) have  been positioning their money?

 

Big and sustained jump in transaction volume and share price.

Not those 1 time jump 5% then next day fall 5% that is punting, need the stock to keep pushing higher, can paused for consolidation but not giving up all the gain. Jan 10% boost almost got me to believe BB is in but lol it is the house traders who pushing it and supported not strong enough.

Last year Feb surge to 1.50 is a good example of BB injection even though full year result 2011 lost like 450 mil, stock fall 8% then later recover within a week. But later in june, the European Financial Crisis screwed up everything, BB retreated fearing a global recession.

When NOL returned to profit in 1Q 2013 May 13, you would start to see a proper valuation of nol (1.3 - 1.4X P/B). Currently stock price is like  we are  in a global recession, too heavily bombed counter. check out those profitable firm that give dividend, they are at very ridiculous valuation ( 2.5 -  100X). When  bull market come, those defensive stock would take a beating  while growth stocks would soar to new height. By the way liner carriers in the US trade route might get a higher fixed freight rate when they renew it on Apr. Currently US spot freight rate is like 30% higher  compared to 2012. NOL business is majority fixed rate , they only need to make sure load factor is at profitable level then they can make money. That why NOL did a 500mil cost saving execise in 2012 to reduce wastage and optimised business model. 500 mil cost cutting and group restructuring would return nol to profit, common sense since banks are also doing it else how they make record profit while in slow economy lol. Austerity RULE!!

 

Hi sgng123,

Agree with u NOL will bounce back on Mon.

Btw, may I know what signals/factors u look for to  determine that the BB (fund manager/hedge fund) have  been positioning their money?