COSCO SHP SG    Last:0.124    -0.002

CoscoCorp

 
Cosco Corp: Hold  - AmResearch, 13 Oct'09

We visited Cosco recently and came away less upbeat on the company's prospects for an earnings recovery in the near term.
Lower expectations for Cosco stems from:
(1) Stockpile of steel at high locked-in prices;
(2) Inefficiencies in execution;
(3) Possibility of further order cancellations and delivery deferrals; and
(4) A drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which dampened earnings expectations for the group's bulk shipping segment.

Cosco will remained saddled by high costs for steel plates at over US$1,000/tonne until end 2010, which will be allocated to
30 new dry bulk carriers under construction. This will keep the group's shipbuilding margins under pressure until FY11F.

Thus far, Cosco has experienced order cancellations of 13 bulk carriers and postponements for delivery of 39 bulk carriers.
Management indicated that there is a possibility that order cancellations and delivery reschedulement would continue to occur
given the weak demand for dry bulk carriers.

We have reduced our FY09F-FY11F earnings by 19%-25% due to:
(1) Reduced EBIT margins for its shipbuilding, repair and marine engineering division – from 10%-12% to 5%-7%; and
(2) Decreased EBIT margin by 5 percentage points to 55% for FY09F and 60% for FY10F-FY11F.

Following this reduction in our earnings forecasts, Cosco currently trades at a FY10F PE of 17x, 15% below Cosco's three-year
forward PE average of 20x. As a China-play proxy, Cosco's valuations represent a premium compared to 13x for Singapore’s
oil & gas industry.

We have downgraded our call on Cosco from BUY to a HOLD with lower fair value of S$1.17/ share based on a FY10F PE of 17x.


 

 

USA, EU, Japan are not importing.

Where will the volume come from?

Will it be Sustainable?

Pizza Hut's 1-for-1 S$19.90 promotion is on for a year or more already.

And now Pizza Hut is selling burgers known as Sub.

 

 

 

Thanks for the info. Will keep track of BDI from now on. 

 

BDI near 2700, up around 500.that's why NOL and coscorp performed not bad today.

by end of this year, BDI can get to more than 4000 which is predicted by coscorp. so keep the shipping counters and shipyard counters.

their spring will come!

aircraft      ( Date: 13-Oct-2009 20:25) Posted: what's up for this counter today ? chiong up.. a bullish sign ?

 

what's up for this counter today ? chiong up.. a bullish sign ?

 

This is hidden gem lo... people sell down because worry of cancel order... once enconomy bounce back to normal this one will fly up up lo.

 

why keep dropping ? next support at 1.17 for cosco ?

 

All bad news are already factor in liao.... anway bottomline still better than NOL.

 

I will buy more cosco tomorrow... My favourite...

 

coscorp now is really rubbish!

yipyip      ( Date: 29-Sep-2009 22:36) Posted: Cosco units delay delivery of 5 bulk carriers; delivers 2 vessels Cosco Corporation (Singapore) says that units Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard Co. and Cosco (Guangdong) Shipyard Co. have agreed to reschedule the delivery dates of five bulk carriers contracted by an European ship owner. The delivery dates for those five vessels will now be delayed by between four and 13 months till not later than 2012. Meanwhile, Cosco Corporation (Singapore) says unit Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard Co. has delivered two new build ships, which are both 57,000 dwt bulk carriers, namely the M.V. Chang Shun II and the M.V. Ingrid C, to its buyers, who are Sino-African and European ship owners respectively. Each bulk carrier measures 189.99m long, 32.26m wide and 18m high, has a draft of 12.8m and a navigation speed of 14.2 knots. (The Edge  29 Sept 2009)

 

Cosco units delay delivery of 5 bulk carriers; delivers 2 vessels

Cosco Corporation (Singapore) says that units Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard Co. and Cosco (Guangdong) Shipyard Co.
have agreed to reschedule the delivery dates of five bulk carriers contracted by an European ship owner. The delivery
dates for those five vessels will now be delayed by between four and 13 months till not later than 2012.

Meanwhile, Cosco Corporation (Singapore) says unit Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard Co. has delivered two new build ships,
which are both 57,000 dwt bulk carriers, namely the M.V. Chang Shun II and the M.V. Ingrid C, to its buyers, who are
Sino-African and European ship owners respectively.

Each bulk carrier measures 189.99m long, 32.26m wide and 18m high, has a draft of 12.8m and a navigation speed of 14.2 knots.

(The Edge  29 Sept 2009)

 

Good or Bad?

 

On Sept. 27th, Capt. Wei Jiafu, President & CEO, Mr. Zhang Fusheng, Executive Vice President and Mr. Li Jianhong, Vice President of COSCO Group met with Mr. Anthony Salim, CEO of Indonesian Salim Group and his delegation at the Ocean Plaza in Beijing.

The both parties exchanged opinions on establishing cooperation in mutually concerned fields.

 

Good collection and picking up now.

 

This counter is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern like KS energy, hope can have positive breakout before reaching apex.

 

RESPONSE TO ARTICLE IN ZAOBAO


The Board of Directors of COSCO Corporation (Singapore) Limited (the “Company”) refers
to the Chinese article which appeared in the Lianhe Zaobao of 16 September 2009 entitled
“A COSCO JV Incurred Billion RMB Losses From Derivatives Trading on Bunker Oil”. The
article quoted an earlier report from the China-based Caijing Magazine on the incurred
losses from a joint-venture company between COSCO Group and its Chinese partner.
The Company hereby wishes to announce its response to the above-mentioned article in
Lianhe Zaobao:
The Company and its subsidiaries have no equity relationship with the joint-venture
company mentioned in the said report.
By Order of the Board
Jiang Li Jun
Vice-chairman and President
16 September 2009

 

good collection of 1.31 expect to break this resistance soon

11:32:34 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:32:27 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:32:25 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:32:10 1.300 10,000 Sell Down
11:30:09 1.300 7,000 Sell Down
11:27:09 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:25:30 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:24:27 1.310 5,000 Buy Up
11:24:26 1.310 20,000 Buy Up
11:24:02 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:22:03 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:21:47 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:21:31 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:21:30 1.310 5,000 Buy Up
11:21:27 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:21:06 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:20:52 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:20:51 1.310 9,000 Buy Up
11:19:59 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:19:41 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:19:40 1.310 10,000 Buy Up
11:19:29 1.310 4,000 Buy Up
11:19:28 1.310 20,000 Buy Up
11:18:47 1.310 6,000 Buy Up
11:18:16 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:18:15 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:18:03 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:18:02 1.310 10,000 Buy Up
11:17:51 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:17:42 1.310 6,000 Buy Up
11:17:38 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:17:38 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:17:22 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:17:21 1.310 10,000 Buy Up
11:17:15 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:17:06 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:16:56 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:16:55 1.310 4,000 Buy Up
11:16:50 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:16:47 1.310 3,000 Buy Up
11:16:46 1.310 12,000 Buy Up
11:16:41 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:16:33 1.310 9,000 Buy Up
11:16:33 1.300 8,000 Sell Down
11:15:41 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:15:40 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:15:31 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:14:26 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:14:19 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:14:18 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:14:10 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:14:09 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:14:08 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:13:38 1.310 4,000 Buy Up
11:13:37 1.310 20,000 Buy Up
11:13:17 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:13:05 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:13:04 1.310 10,000 Buy Up
11:12:57 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:12:56 1.310 3,000 Buy Up
11:12:43 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:12:15 1.310 4,000 Buy Up
11:12:14 1.310 20,000 Buy Up
11:12:07 1.310 21,000 Buy Up
11:12:06 1.310 200,000 Buy Up
11:12:03 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:11:47 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:11:32 1.310 4,000 Buy Up
11:11:30 1.310 20,000 Buy Up
11:11:29 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:11:28 1.310 6,000 Buy Up
11:11:03 1.300 7,000 Sell Down
11:09:34 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:07:55 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:07:45 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:07:45 1.300 1,000 Sell Down
11:07:30 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:07:29 1.310 10,000 Buy Up
11:06:15 1.305 2,000 X
11:06:11 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:06:10 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:06:07 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:06:00 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:06:00 1.300 1,000 Sell Down
11:05:54 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:05:53 1.310 5,000 Buy Up
11:05:45 1.300 1,000 Sell Down
11:05:34 1.300 9,000 Sell Down
11:05:15 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:05:14 1.310 4,000 Buy Up
11:02:19 1.300 1,000 Sell Down
11:00:55 1.300 1,000 Sell Down
11:00:53 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:00:52 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
11:00:51 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:00:37 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
11:00:22 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
10:59:35 1.310 1,000 Buy Up
10:59:34 1.310 2,000 Buy Up
10:58:35 1.300 2,000 Sell Down

 

I've unloaded all at 1.32 for some kopi $ , will monitor for future entry point.

 

http://www.vinamaso.net/news-events/shipbuilding-repair/248-orders-cancelled-in-china.html

At least 248 newbuilding orders had been cancelled in China by mid-August, according to a survey by Japan's Kaiji Press. Bulkers numbered 177 , accounting for 70% of the total. These included 56 Capesizes. The cancelled vessels also included 33 tankers and 13 containerships.

Handymaxes, at 61 units, led the list of bulker cancellations, followed by Capesizes, post-Panamaxes, Panamaxes and Handysizes in that order. At the peak time, Chinese shipyards had more than 200 million dwt of bulker newbuildings on order. That explains why a large number of bulker orders have been annulled.

In contrast, not many tankers and boxships were cancelled because there had been relatively fewer orders for such vessels. The hardest hit were Suezmax tankers, with orders for 20 units having been retracted. No order cancellations involving Aframaxes and product carriers have been confirmed so far. However, a majority of Chinese shipyard officials say that the number of cancellations "doesn't mean much".

An official with a Chinese marine equipment manufacturer said, "Basically, annulment of newbuilding orders is based on retraction of orders for main marine equipment such as engines. In China, orders for such equipment are cancelled even when newbuilding contracts are rewritten to cover waiver of options and changes in delivery dates, ship types and numbers. Therefore, pure order cancellations are not that many."

A Chinese shipping official said, "Shipyards will continue work on the cancelled vessels to sell them to owners at home. Their completion will be naturally behind schedule. But those ships will be put on the market sooner or later."

The supply of bulker newbuildings by Chinese yards may not drop to the extent other countries estimate.

 

Comfirm good time coming soon. Another huge buy up before closing keke...

17:05:01

1.280

602,000

Buy Up