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178investors
    29-Jan-2008 00:03  
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 My comment 2wks ago in sync with all local analysts outlook on smrt today. Not too late... still can sell.Smiley

178investors
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Posted: 14-Jan-2008 14:51
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.....lately, some have been chasing this train up... but be careful....  its rich valuation can hurt you badly .... chase blindly then suffer badly has always repeat itself in the market...
 
 
Farmer
    28-Jan-2008 22:59  
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SMRT Shares Drop on Earnings; Citigroup Cuts Target 


By Chan Sue Ling

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- SMRT Corp., Singapore's biggest subway operator, dropped for the first time in four days after the company said third-quarter profit fell because of higher fuel and maintenance costs.

SMRT declined 4 cents, or 2.4 percent, to S$1.66 as of 11:34 a.m. in Singapore, after falling as much as 2.9 percent earlier. Citigroup Inc. analyst Lim Jit Soon cut the price target for the shares to S$1.48 from S$1.66.

A government push to expand train services could raise costs just as higher diesel prices are eroding earnings from SMRT's bus and taxi operations. Land-scarce Singapore, the world's second-most densely populated country, plans to spend S$20 billion ($14 billion) by 2020 to double the reach of its rail network and reduce road congestion.

``It's only a matter of time before the operating margin declines as trains become less crowded,'' Chan Choon Jit, an analyst at Kim Eng Securities Pte in Singapore, wrote in a note to clients today. The risk ``has increased for domestic land transport operations as authorities demand higher service standards and exert greater control over their operations.''

SMRT's net income declined to S$38.3 million in the three months ended Dec. 31 from S$40.4 million a year earlier, the company said after the market closed Jan. 25. Revenue climbed 7.3 percent to S$202.1 million.

The company is 54.41 percent owned by Temasek Holdings Pte, a Singapore state investment company, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

New Lines

Singapore plans to build two new rail lines and expand existing facilities, Transport Minister Raymond Lim said Jan. 25. The city will have a network of 278 kilometers (173 miles) by 2020, compared with 130 kilometers now, he said.

The government also wants more competition for the city's bus and subway services, currently dominated by SMRT and ComfortDelgro Corp. The government is considering shortening the operating licenses of its subway to between 10 and 15 years from 30 years now to increase competition, Lim said.

Operating margin could decline as the expanded railway network could dilute the passenger load, Chan wrote.

The stock, trading at 18 times estimated earnings for the year beginning April, is ``rich relative to growth,'' Citigroup's Jit wrote.
 
 
178investors
    28-Jan-2008 21:37  
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As said b4, this train climbs a mountain of worries and it gonna go chucking-sliding from here onward.  Sorry for the expressed pessism.
 

 
singaporegal
    28-Jan-2008 20:34  
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TA charts for this counter show that it is weathering the storm very well. Acc/Dist and Chaikin are not affected badly. 
 
 
Farmer
    28-Jan-2008 18:48  
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With the speculation of M&A expectation largely behind us(not materialised), we shall now focus on its numbers for future direction.

The 3Q08 result clearly shown that it is currently rely heavily on its strong rental & advertising sector to maintain significant profitability(~32m out of the overall 38m), hence whether more people or not switching to MRT from cab is immaterial when growth is concern taking into consideration its high operating and maintenance cost. While management are optimistic that R&A will continue to generate strong growth looking ahead, O&M cost will continue to rise will high oil price. As such, it's better to stay sideline for the moment while waiting to collect at an appropriate level over time at much attractive price.
 
 
mike8057d
    23-Jan-2008 15:14  
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becoz ppl still need to go to work, go to find job after stock market slides......
 

 
starfire
    23-Jan-2008 14:58  
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I think this counter is holding up quite pretty well.
 
 
Farmer
    23-Jan-2008 14:41  
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That's why even while the current crisis is looming, its price not moving, recent range bet 1.60-1.73.
 
 
mike8057d
    23-Jan-2008 14:28  
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more ppl are taking train and bus ...even though SMRT disrutption on Monday..........no choice
 
 
KiLrOy
    21-Jan-2008 15:17  
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Did anyone hear the vodcast from ST (if you have Vista, you can add it as one of your gadget, if you dunno what I am toking abt, dun bother.)

LTA (gahment) will takeover and revamp or redraw and expand the ENTIRE bus route by 2010. Looks like gahment had enuff of the inefficiencies of the current bus routes by both SBS and SMRT. : p.  ERP is set to rise (gahment had agree that everyone will have a chance to own a car if they want to but the never say the road will be ..... ).

SMRT Red Indian Chief (see her red highlighted hair?) 'surrender' to open up bus competition (see if you can read her facial expression).
 

 
mike8057d
    21-Jan-2008 11:34  
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I really doubt anything good for commuters will come out of this big bang announcment (feel good only). 

What the commuters need are

1. get to their destination fast 

2. don't have to wait more than 5 minutes for the bus or train

3. cheaper fare
 
 
starfire
    19-Jan-2008 11:36  
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Frankly i am not too worry but the short term down of this counter as i think the government is working towards consoildating the transportation industry and hence this stock should do pretty well in the long run.

 

 
 
 
simck001
    19-Jan-2008 09:49  
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How would the news affect this counter?

Up further? Down? Or maintain its position in this month? 
 
 
178investors
    18-Jan-2008 23:43  
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..... so happy the government finally decided the same as my suggestion no.2 Smiley... frankly it's the correct thing to do.... now we just have to wait for the details how it will be executed.

Cheers to all bus commuters.... Smiley

15-Jan-2008 23:19 SMRT   /   SMRT
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Here's my 2cents of what the Govt "should" do to have competitive competition in public transports.

1. Put all train operations under one company, preferably SMRT but SMRT has to give up all bus operations totally to be fair to SBS Transit/Comfort Delgro.

2. Have multiple bus operators so more choices and competitive services.

Under the above new competitive landscape, buses will be free totally to compete with train services. Viola... great for public commuters.... Cheers!
 
 
winnifong
    18-Jan-2008 22:57  
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open up for competition but at the end still kanna force to merge otherwise will bleed to death.

Media Work setup to compete but at the end gone into history
 

 
KiLrOy
    18-Jan-2008 19:01  
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i seriously doubt so. SMRT and esp SBS have been operating buses for ages and plying 95% of SG roads.  Companies keen on competition will be 'eaten' alive by either one of them if not eaten by the cost of rising fuel and operational cost (have you look at the operational cost in their P&L?)

look at Singpost opening up its mail delivery since last year Mar, who dares challenge it.  Singpost rules!
 
 
clayman
    18-Jan-2008 15:26  
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Singapore to open up public bus sector to competition. Erosion of profit will be significantly increase for SBS and SMRT.
 
 
mike8057d
    18-Jan-2008 15:23  
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it is a defensive stock
 
 
starfire
    18-Jan-2008 15:19  
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Seem this counter isvery steady...still at $1.7. May be can buy to keep some as defensive stock.
 
 
mike8057d
    18-Jan-2008 14:53  
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Major overhaul to improve bus travel http://www.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Singapore/Story/A1Story20080118-45562.html

".........................Mr Lim said at the heart of the overhaul is a people-centred land transport system.

'We will do more to put the commuter at the centre of our land transport system. Our land transport system must be planned and built for people, not vehicles,' said the Minister.

'This means seeing through the eyes of the commuter from the time he steps out of his house to the time he gets to his destination. In fact, it starts even before that, as soon as he thinks about making a journey.'........................"

Sure or not...can predict what I think even before I step out of my house.....wow, just talk only lah. 
 
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