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Kim Eng target price for NOL is $1.71, so far they have been pretty accurate. NOL should see NOL making its way back to $2.50 or better. Divested my Zynga and move back into NOL. I think at current rate $1.26 is very good to accumulate for a 1 year investment timeframe to get almost 100% returns.
Trade what you can afford. Take calculated risk.
NOL will be a very interesting trade that I will track this year.
Cheers
Still a week till 4Q result is out, in standby mode. STI had almost give up all the gain made post CNY, guess big players also in wait and see mode.
Currently the stock market is very overweight on dividend plays, pricing them at over 2X upwards to valuation. As long stock give dividend, they buy in and price it at 5% dividend share price. Growth and cyclindal stocks all in the slump due to risk off mode, very polarised market with one end at high price, the other end at recession level. Soon the market had to rebalance, either a major correction or growth/cyclindal stocks pick up . Dangerous time for small time players either in punt/short camp.
You see, sifu, I always stick to my price. Many times I miss the price closely. Too bad,
But in the interest of long-term strategy, I always stick to my price no matter what.
Bopanha ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 13:14) Posted:
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Good trading, sifu. But have not seen anything below $1.20 in recent weeks. You are waiting in ambush, hahaha!
iPunter ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 13:11) Posted:
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I am not in now...
I got out @1.30 recently. I am waiting to get back in @1.19.
Bopanha ( Date: 14-Feb-2013 10:31) Posted:
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Not throwing cold water. Usually in a rising market (is our market rising, this is the question?) a counter that does not move indicates something bad is going on, unless there are signs of strong pickup on dips. Cheers.
price still dropping... sianz
alexsmith ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 11:45) Posted:
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Another low volume trading day. Sienzz.
NOL very unpredictable share price, very easy to get burnt on either punt/short cos floating shares too few in market. Had to play safe and wait till 4Q result is out and confirmed the sustained profit margin then can resume normal punting long/short. Today is another house traders churning session, pushing down shares to load up on cheaper price then later push it back, no profit trading for now till 22 feb. Share price might be edging higher due to house traders support but not big price movement till 4Q. So for now do nothing then till 4Q.
Sifu, are you short and at what price did you sell?
iPunter ( Date: 14-Feb-2013 06:34) Posted:
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In dilema now... dunno whether to load NOL now before it soars towards 22 feb or should wait till results is out then buy when it plunges (assuming it does)...
sgng123 ( Date: 13-Feb-2013 21:06) Posted:
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My offer for this counter is 1.19...
To add on, NOL is a very high Beta stock which meant huge price movement is common due to limited shares floating in the market.
67% controlled by temasek, 20% controlled by brokerage houses/big investors very easy for them to move NOL shares up or down.
Even if Temasek want to do a privisation, it is cake to gain approval from those brokerage houses and buy like 5% from market before hitting 90% which would triggered a forced privisation on all share holders. Temasek had did it before in 2006 but failed in the attempt due to US investors rejection.
NOL is one of the few remaining gems controlled by govt , SIA is like 55% owned. Now might be losing big money but with a revenue close to US 10 billion. IF properly managed and not enagaged in damaging rate war, can make 5% net profit margin easily appro US500mil or EPS $0.24. Might go higher if including the PSS. This stock is one crazy one, lot of punters luv it due to big swing of fortune punt/short. APL got lot of big international US companies contracts and in good relationship with US government ( APL is US national shippping liner before it got sold to NOL long time ago).
difficult to go any higher before 4Q is out as currently stock price movement is dictated by house traders. As long as fund managers/hedge fund are not in the ship, very difficult to move higher, they also waiting to see if the cost saving plan would result in sustained profit margin.
Once sustained profit margin is established, u would start to see fund pouring into NOL, need patience must endure since house traders would likely push down price to stock up on lower priced NOL shares. Currently in the stock market, only left penny stocks and growth stocks not rallied yet, all the rest with dividend at their all time high, very dangerous to keep buying those. Wait for NOL tsunami and it would flush out all those who short this year lol.
How high it could rise after Q4 result would depend on how high the TP assigned to NOL which would be boosted by short trading transparency and higher trans pacific freight rates.
let's see how high it can hit before 22 feb. no chance for it to go even higher after release of Q4 results?
sgng123 ( Date: 13-Feb-2013 13:21) Posted:
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Share might move higher from now till 4Q/full year result on 22 feb, supported by house traders. It would dip after 4Q result then rebound to correct valuation of 2013 earning rebound then dip again on US drama in may. March might represent a good trading opportunity for us as shorting activities is more or less contrainted due to SGX transparency disclosure on short position, the big asia-europe GRI if get through also another catalyst for upward momentum. To summaries,
1. Stock rerating after 4Q 2013, can buy on dip after result is out.
2. Upward momentum due to rerating + SGX transparency move in march
3. Another dip expected somewhere near mid-end Apr due to US debt ceiling drama, another buy on dip.
Carriers might get a higher freight rate on their yearly service contract on both US and europe in Apr, US trade might get the bigger increase due to strong spot rate. US spot rate is 30% higher compared to feb12 and asia-europe not much change. IF you can hold out till 2014, then fat reward await that where stock price is at the highest due to global demand recovery.
Shoot up to 1.275-1.28 range today as the effect of accumulation of the good news during the past few days.
Will see some downside risk only during 22Feb probably ('12 financial release) which will be followed by the upward correction until US-GOP drama again.
Good China Export and Import data but cos CNY is around the corner, so any price gain all got wiped out in the last minute.
However watch out when market open on next wed. Last time nol surge in 2012 is after the CNY holiday. But i more concerned about
the 4Q result released on friday 22 feb 13, the cost saving measure realised could meant sustained profit margin for nol which would lead to
rerating by brokerage + upward price momentum. Lastly not much movement in SCFI, dipped 11.
Any positive news out today?
sgng123 ( Date: 07-Feb-2013 17:21) Posted:
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