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hp3000 ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 22:30) Posted:
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DMG & Partners Industrial Update - 25 Aug 09
Project: Reflections; Developer: Keppel Land and Keppel Corp; Total Units: 1,129
Re-launching waterfront project. Following its initial launch in 2Q07, the Keppel companies re-launched the project last Friday. Prices were largely unchanged, from S$1,600 - 2,200 psf depending on the unit’s view and level. 4 units were sold over the weekend, on top of the 638 units as of Jul 09. Showflat turnout was subdued at 10 – 20 people at any one point, consisting of a balanced mix of locals and Chinese
nationals. We understand that the developers also put up for sale a proportion of their 168 units at Caribbean (currently held as corporate residences) at S$1,300 – 1,400 psf, considerably higher than the average of S$1,115 psf transacted for 31 units within the secondary market from Jan – Jul 09 (refer to Figure 3).
Figure 3: Comparative Prices for Reflections’ Nearby Projects
Project Developer Tenure Total TOP Price Movement (S$ psf)
(yr) (Units) (Date) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Keppel Bay
Reflections Keppel Land and Keppel Corp. 99-yr 1,129 2013 1,977 1,957 2,074 1,994 - - 1,516
Caribbean Keppel Land and Keppel Corp. 99-yr 969 2004 1,495 1,371 1,282 1,053 1,076 1,071 1,204
Source: URA and DMG Estimates
DJ MARKET TALK: S'pore Home Prices Could Hit 2007 Peaks Soon -UBS
0333 GMT [Dow Jones] Overall prices of private homes in Singapore could revisit 2007 peaks by next year, with mass-market projects already at those levels, but prices could stagnate from there, says UBS. Notes developers raised launch prices in 1H09 by 10% for projects in prime districts, 18% for those in mass-market areas due to keen interest from both local, foreign buyers. Expects 16,000 new homes to be completed over 2009-2015, unchanged from 16,000 completed in 2000-2008; "we believe this is not excessive, if we expect population growth to be 2.4%." Raises NAV forecasts for developers under its coverage by 3%-13%, FY09-11 EPS estimates by 1%-19% to reflect higher selling prices. Upgrades Allgreen Properties (A16.SG) to Buy from Neutral, raises target price to S$1.63 from S$0.44; keeps CityDev (C09.SG) at Buy but raises target to S$12 from S$11; keeps Keppel Land (K17.SG) at Buy with higher target of S$3.30 vs S$3.20. Allgreen +3.4% at S$1.23, CityDev off 2.3% at S$10.06, Keppel Land off 1.5% at S$2.62. (FKH)
Developers Mkt Price Target RNAV 2Q09 P re / (Disc) to Net
Cap Price NAV RNAV NAV Gearing
(S$m) (S$) (S$) (S$) (S$) (%) (%)
CapLand 15,456.8 3.64 4.22 3.52 2.86 3% 27% 0.43
CityDev 9,038.5 9.94 12.00 10.00 6.18 -1% 61% 0.46
KepLand 3,638.5 2.59 2.98 2.98 2.34 -13% 11% 0.23
Source: Company and DMG Estimate
They may buy Kepland up. So next round when come bk they can sell at high price. Keke
hp3000 ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 22:30) Posted:
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7th month gosh festival all property share drop.... keke....
After 7th month will move up.
What is keppland doing har.. lolz .. Any news?
tomorrow maybe kepland day!today it's 阳痿！
maxcty ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 15:35) Posted:
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wow..still take 'wei ge', tot this baby just have a small flu today. wait it get worst.haha..
Peg_li ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 15:12) Posted:
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Notice Kepland and Capland takes turn to be favoured or disfavoured. Fundamentals have only limited influence in short term price movement. If you are medium/long term holder, then entry price is probably at whatever your comfort level and fund allows. If you are a punter for quick gains, well good luck but to me this one is not for punting even though price is volatile - it is like 50/50 gamble if you get it right or wrong.
Kepland no power to move, give it 伟哥 to incent.
maxcty ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 15:04) Posted:
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compare with other property share, this baby still falling very ill...no energy to move...........
MBT comments probably timed in response to the "amazing" prices saw at the Centro at AMK. Buyers are all mopping up the small units (I mean, small) at even at the prime property level psf, seems affordable at < $1million. Curbing exuberant behaviour is important for an orderly appreciation in property prices - I don't think the government is signaling an impending anti-speculative measure unless broad market went berserk which does not seem so if one is to track the sub-sale private property market and rental market.
On Keppel Land, I think current market price relative to other big property players like CityDev and Capland is not in sync. Kepland 2Q results is very respectable, and my sense is 2H2009 will be decent too. Like Capitaland, Keppel Land embarked on a regional approach moving aggressively into China + Vietnam. Also in residential and commercial segments. It's large potential in the Marina area seem under-rated by analysts. I use to favour Capland of the big 3 and has since shifted my focus on Kepland on its relative upside. To me, current dip is good to commence accumulation though I would agree that no one knows where the bottom is, and whether broader market may dampen price for property counters further. If you believe the scenario painted by Li Ka Shing on an "inflation holocaust" forthcoming, then property stocks to me is a viable alternative to owing physical property.
Just my view. Please do your own thorough research.
I dont think sick, more or less fear of MBT.....
National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan last month observed that there are
signs of speculation in the property market, and said that the government will
act if it overheats
doc say that depends on the neighbours....hopefully the ang moh neighbour will recover tonight
hope tomorrow is sunny day 
most of the counters are sick since yesterday. Doc gave them 2 days mc.....
hope this just catch a small flu...then easy to recover later..
cheers.
Maybe H1N1. hehe.
Anyway hope it recover later on.
Cheers.
maxcty ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 12:20) Posted:
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It cannot be healthy all the time.