Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

bengster, u make me feel like buying 100 lots tomorrow, ha ha...

may I know that is purely your prediction or u are somehow "connected" ...  end of Oct? no problem dude, I can definitely wait.. even december, i also can wait, but hope not another 2 years la.

 

Monday morning there will be a surge. When CE comes around end Oct there will be another mega surge. This is what i honestly believe will happen. Wrong don't blame me hor

 

bengster , can I rely on your post below, for the next week BULL RUN of this counter?

vested 20 lots @ 0.695 today !

 

Q2 results will confirm be a loss. This will be mitigated by JW's earnings, depending on when BIG can start booking JW's earnings. BIG fully completed JW deal on 28/09/07, BIG's Q@ for this financial year is from 01/07 to 30/09. Thus, i do not expect JW to contribute any earnings this quarter. However, im confident JW can contribute at least US$4m next quarter. JW is growing very fast exponentially and their NP for next year should be US$25m. However if JW manage to pull off a mega deal in China, I think their NP next year will be at least US$75m. There is a chance this mega deal can be sealed. The odds are currently in JW's favour. If BIG can buy over the remaining 50% from Shandong Weigao and also seal the China mega deal, BIG will be the DES king in China, Latin America, Africa and many other 3rd world countries. Plus Biomatrix, being the best clinical proven DES to capture the first world (developed countries) market, BIG will be a truly global powerhouse stent player.

Share price performance / control starts as early as from pre-IPO and IPO time. There is disorderly placements and over placement at IPO time (i think there is a "greenshoe" clause with Citigroup) whereby they are allowed to issue more shares then the 25% public float. The whole IPO was a disaster and first day closing at 60cts, below IPO of 70cts. I also suspect some pre-IPO investors sold their shares disorderly into the open market without good syndication and IPO placement institutional holders dumped their holdings after they ramped it up to $1.20 high, followed by a higher $1.50 peak. With such poor control of shares at public float and unskillful investor relations, long-term holders have been suffering. BIG is talking to several institutional funds to add BIG into their portfolio and the feedback is "wait until you have CE before there is clearer visibility to your company". I believe the big buyers after CE will be these institutional funds. I also pray they outsource to an "ang moh" PR consultant firm to make investors appreciate this company. What a mess now.........  and look at the share price........... and we have the best DES with proprietary IP and patents!!!

 

Thanks Bengster for revealing your vested interest.  I believe BIG will eventually come out of its laggardness and perform better as more and more confidence are instilled in their products through tests and publicity.  The process is slow but our board should understand the dilema of shareholders hanging on to a "poor price performer" and try to tackle it through concerted efforts in public relations together with some strategies which will effectively put price hammerers (usually jobbers and shortists) at bay.    These strategies are not difficult to formulate.  Once you can signal these operators to "hands off" or else "woes and big losses", I am sure the price will have some measure of sanity.

 

Hi bengster, what will likely be the 1Q 2008 result in Nov?

 

3 more trading days to see the first surge on Monday 22/10 when BIG announce their trial results presented at TCT2007. About 10 more trading days to mega surge at month end for my expected CE approval date. This stock is still behaving like a hopeless company. BIG is really unloved in SGX. I heard BIG is considering a dual listing in HKSE and i asked a big shot shareholder to go and screw them up before BIG do a wrong listing mistake again. Asian stock exchange will never appreciate companies like BIG. BIG despite holding 50% JW has never become a china play stock and will never be one. Even if BIG holds 100% of JW, the market's perception will still be the same. Stent drug and technology, IP and patents are BIG's best assets and they should stick to their earlier plans and go for NASDAQ please. BIG already made a big mistake to list here, hope they don't make another silly listing mistake again. And they better announce their NASDAQ listing plans soon after CE announcement to further boost the share price and provide some support. With low share price how to expect takeover negotiations to conclude at a much higher price? Which potential buyer want to buy BIG at above 200% premium and answer to their own shareholders for apparent over-paying? Sh#t for brains man! I expect the takeover premium to be 100% when it eventually happens.    

 

I generally buy into companies before listing. I bought into BIG before their IPO and got to know their key shareholders. I just came back from China and decided to buy a 0.5% stake into a company. They are going to list in mainbord SGX next year with compounding 50% increase in profit for the next 3 years. The potential is bigger than i thought. I hope i can get more shares during their IPO and the main shareholders/ instituational players will control this stock properly. Normally during the IPO share placement 90% will be placed out to institutional investors for better control. For BIG's case, the company's is very good fundamental (except CE delay) but i believe free-float and the control of shares is weak this is causing this miserable share price. Poor investor relations and too big public float. I have full confidence BIG will be bought up eventually latest by June 2008. It a matter of price that key shareholders are agreeable. This stock will have its big day. No kelong price or syndicated control share price. JNJ will buy up all the shares from each and every shareholder. Full takeover and full control. JW in China is doing docking well. On the way to number one DES player in China soon. Nobody fully understands the full potential of JW yet.    

 

Hi Bengster,

Thank you for sharing with us (the small fishes) the information on BIG. The information helps me to maintain my confident. I am invested with 110 lots. BTW, are you a doctor by profession, I am curious, as you know a lot of medical terms. I will be cruising with you the big supertanker, cheers!

 

Hi Bengster.  Surely you have a big heart for BIG.  Your really put so much money on the counter so no wonder the big shark of sharks is eyeing you and slowing down the advance of BIG's share prices.

Hope more people with like capital can join in to buy.  Otherwise the big shark will continue to cap the price to its whims and fancies.

Hey, why am I talking in riddles?  Biosensors, qucikly cheong and huat. Don't fail us, BIG.

 

Over 3000 lots. Sticking to my expected date of CE arrival...... End of October 2007. This company is not kelong. Do further research into it and you will find its solid fundamentals. By end of october all will know it BIG is really an undiscovered gem right under our nose. November onwards will kick-start the beginning of another round of serious takeover negotiations. My reasons: Endeavor and Xience will have FDA, Biomatrix CE will be approved, Biomatrix's trial results will be excellent against Taxus Liberte and Cypher and a clear winner even against Endeavor and Xience when compared against Taxus DES since all 3 of them had RCT trial against Taxus DES. JNJ is more desperate than ever after Biomatrix entering CE markets, Endeavor and Xience entering home turf US market. See this stock rocket by 50% at end of October from miserable 71cts. At this price if you don't dare to buy and hold until takeover happens, do you think you will dare to buy at above $1 to buy and hold until the grand jackpot??? Also, don't be too happy when some stocks chiong and at all time high. These are cornered stocks. And there many stocks that are already cornered by syndicates.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic about BIG getting their CE approval this year. All the news came so far on DES are good. I believed their clinical trial results are good as well, otherwise why waste so much money go and present in TCT2007 and make themselves look like a fool! Hopefully, this is part of their marketing strategies to put more pressure on the CE panel.

After TCT 2007, it is even harder for the CE panel to reject BIG application unless they  have a  valid reason.  If not, they risk losing their credibility and subject themselves to corruption investigation. DES is indeed a very risky business, either you win big or loss big. What cause a lot of people to loss hope on BIG is the delaying of the CE approval since their IPO in 2005. Is BIG hiding something that we don?t know!

On the other hand, many people know that the barrier of entry for DES is very high. The market is big enough and very profitable even with all players around. Once BIG got their CE Mark, they can sell their products almost to every countries except North America. That itself would have put enough stress on their production capacity.

I?ve seen BIG share price swing up and down over these few years. Nobody can guarantee it would get the CE approval soon or eventually be bought over at $3. Please do your own risk assessment and don?t get carry away by comments here. I?m sad to see too many BIG supporters turning their back and accuse Bengster68 from misleading them when their price drop from $1.0 to 0.65.

This is a free market, if you think BIG is too expensive by all means bring it down. Many of us are happy to collect.

 

Sori to be a wet blanket..I 've shorted many times using CFD and make $ on this Biosensor...once I bought 82cts thinking it will rebound..I reverse gear short double the amount I bought and made $$$....many investors hve been  waiting until frustrated..and those who jumped ships managed to  recover their $$$ with so many other counters breaking new high even > pennies....perhaps it is gd to learn patience which hopefully this stock will teach U..sincerely hope thel ong term sufferers and holders of Biosensor can sell at $3 finally...sori if I appear to agiutate u,bro bengster..just curious if U can disclose yr holdings in Biosensor...I've no respect fpr Biosensor but I respect U for yr indepth knowledge and analysis of Biosensor and sincerely hope yr $3 will be achieved

 

Royalty collections from licensees will be pretty fast and furious. If Biomatrix's CE is approved, Terumo, Xtent and Devax's DES using BIG's drug and stent technology will be able to obtain CE very soon (following the back of Biomatrix's approval) because BIG represents the whole group of licensee using the same drug and polymer technology. Same for FDA approval process. I expect CE approval to come out this couple of weeks time. However, FDA may approval may be in H12009. Biomatrix haven't even got IDE yet. Biomatrix's product QC and distribution channels is already in place. However, I suspect their production capacity is not quite certain when i asked BIG questions relating to this area in early 2007. This is because BIG cannot be hiring staff on standby and renting production facilities on standby while waiting for the ever delaying CE approval. That would have burn a lot of cash and it is not wise move. I believe by now BIG's management already have strong production capacity plans in place since Biomatrix is BIG's flagship product and they will be managing this area very prudently. Perhaps when CE is approved, BIG's management can give us a guide on Biomatrix's expected sales and percentage of penetration into the markets that are using CE standards then we can have a clearer pricture on their production capacity plans.

I also mentioned before that JNJ said they are planning to use sirolimus drug on Conor's costar metal structure with reservoirs. This "new weapon" if successful, will take at least 3 years to commercialise. But I heard JNJ has engaged many stent experts to improve Costar's platform and the result is nothing can be done and nothing useful can be salvaged. The key problem is Costar's reservoir metal stent structure, something that JNJ thought is wonderful idea and key cutting edge against other DES but it is exactly the stent structire that is the cause of poor stent performance. I believe JNJ is calling a bluff that they are coming up with something combining sirolimus and Costar's platform. It will not work and JNJ know it. JNJ do not want to appear that they are desperate for another acquisition and they have no new upcoming stent weapons in hand. It is also to save some face for JNJ's amanagement that something useful can still be salvaged from Costar or they will be the laughing stock for paying US$1.4B and only a few months later it becomes a total write-off. JNJ has no other choice but to buy BIG if they want to stay dominant. Im very certain about it. 

 

Hi Bengster and all,

Yes, I did jump ship, but when I looked back, I could see the glitters and now my clock shows the time is nigh.  So I'm coming to join all of you, faithfuls after having some good gains on ABT.

Will be collecting Biosensors, and hoping to have enough for the grand harvest together.  Putting in at least 6 figures on this counter 70 cts plus, so Biosensors, don't spike yet.... Please wait for me!

 

Takeover by any of these main players is the best outcome everyone of us is hoping for. But, what if biosensors can't find a buyer! How fast can it ramp up it production and loyalty collections to improve its profit and market share after getting the CE and FDA approvals is what many investors are look at. 

Bengster, since you are in the medical field, what is the lead time biosensors has over a new player entering the DES business, considering the research, clinical trial, authority approvals and etc needed? Also, how fast do you think JNJ can come up with a new DES product using its own resources?

 




 

 

From what i know, all 4 main players namely JNJ, BSX, MDT and ABT has approached BIG on takeover possibilities this year. In Apr 2007, i heard ABT and MDT. May JNJ came back to after Conor's failure. In June BSX came talking to BIG. So far, only JNJ has offered before to BIG but the key shareholders felt the offer price was too low.

From the look of things, I feel MDT and ABT may not be too keen in buying BIG if they secure FDA approval. This is because Endeavor (after FDA approval) is expected to capture 15% of DES market in US and Xience is expected to capture 20% US market within one year from their FDA approval. DES is very lucrative business and even a second rated DES can make a lot of money once approval is obtained. JNJ will be hit but BSX will be the worst hit. BSX derives majority of their earnings from DES. However among JNJ and BSX, i feel ultimately BIG will be bought up by  JNJ because they can pay cold hard cash and JNJ really has no new DES weapon in hand. JNJ is the richest contender but has the weakest weapon arsenal to fight in this upcoming stent war. When JNJ made such a quick and hasty decision to buy over Conor without examining Conor's product very carefully, it shows that JNJ still wants to remain dominant in DES and they are freaking desperate to continue to be the big guy in the industry. They can and will buy their way thru and they have a huge cash war chest to defend their market position. After TCT2007 when partial results of LEADERS trial is released, the writing will be on the wall for JNJ's Cypher. Biomatrix will beat the shit out of Cypher. No other DES dare to do RTC against Cypher after Endeavor failed primary end-point against Cypher. Biomatrix dare because BIG knows that Biomatrix is the best. BIG is very confident. Plus, NOBORI 1 ph 2 results against Taxus Liberte will be announced. Biomatrix will beat the shit out of BSX's current best DES. The experts can then compare the trial results of Cypher, Taxus, Biomatrix, Endeavor, Xience and it will be very easy to see which is the best performing DES. Nothing to hide. No regulatory appovals. Open for all to see. JNJ will come back and give BIG a higher offer. JNJ know buying up BIG is their only last hope to win the stent war. I personally feel BIG and JNJ will be a good match. BIG has got the best drug, stent technology and proprietary IP and patents. JNJ has got the financial muscle, branding, wide distribution channel and relationships with hospitals and doctors, marketing capability, sponsorship programs to top doctors, PR, lobbying power at regulatory approvals, conduct further massive clinical trials portfolio to show the world Biomatrix is the best DES, etc. When JNJ and BIG combine forces, they will be set to capture at least 50% of the global DES market share. Lovely combination. BIG has the best product but will not be able to get that kind of market share if they go solo and do it alone. And we know sometimes the best product may not be the eventual market leader. A lot of other factors come into play in business     

 

I think BIG take-over contender could be Medtronics or J&J. J&J more desperate..Medtronics want to corner the mkt. Any view?

 

Endeavor's late-loss is huge and cannot be used for small arteries. Huge renarrowing of vessel can eventually cause the vessel to close up totally. Endeavor's TLR is high, it is not a good DES in terms of efficacy. Xience is the current best clinical trial performer but Xience has got problems also. There are already cases of Xience DES drug coating and polymer coating spliting open and it is potentially dangerous. I think Xience's polymer technology is still not up to standard. Abbott has been warned by experts to pull Xience DES off the market but Abbott chose to ignore them due to profit motive. Anyway, I dont think BIG will enjoy licensing royalties from Abbott. 

FDA for Biomatrix will be H1 2009. Biomatrix have not received IDE yet. There is a delay because BIG made a very small error on animal tests for Biolimus safety profile and kena penalised by FDA to redo the whole thing again. I think IDE should be out in Nov/Dec 2007.

I look at Medtronic and Abbott's entry to US market in a better light. This will make JNJ and BSX even more desperate to acquire BIG as their home turf is being penetrated by rivals and they don't have a new breakthrough DES to deal with newer rivals. Only Biomatrix can beat Endeavor and Xience convincingly. Plus, the DES industry is already going towards polymer-free direction (poor polymer technology is the main suspect for late-thrombosis) and BIG is a pioneer in this field. BIG even has next generation Biomatrix-Freedom (totally polymerless) in human clinical trials already. If JNJ is to acquire BIG, it will ensure JNJ will be dominant DES player for another good 10 years. Or else, JNJ will be out of DES business by 2010. BIG will be their last hope to remain dominant in this lucrative DES industry. What a waste BIG has the best stent technology but slowest regulatory approvals.

 

Hi bengster68,

 Do you know when is FDA panel reviewing Biosensors DES?

Abbott expects an FDA panel to review its Xience stent in late November. Hence, JP Morgan analyst predicted in a recent note that its Xience DES could become the leading stent once it is approved.

You mentioned before that Xience uses everolimus in its DES, which Biosensors own the IP rights. So can  biosensors claim any license fees from them?