
so fast cross 350 already. last sold @ 350 and never buy when below 3
great, hit 350
paragon; unlikely they r selling, cash cow. now hitting resistance 342 again
Yet another buy call from CIMB........i'm more interested in its asset sales & dividends update, thus, the rest censor, u can go to http://www.remisiers.org/research.html to read in details.
COMPANY UPDATE
20 July 2009
OUTPERFORM Maintained Singapore Press Holdings Ltd - Target: S$3.99
• Post-luncheon takeaways. We hosted a post-results luncheon for 17 institutional clients last Friday. SPH’s CFO, Mr Tony Mallek, addressed several issues which were of interest to clients: 1) ad demand recovery; 2) newsprint prices; 3) revenue recognition of Sky@eleven; 4) investment portfolio, and 5) the potential sale of SPH’s Paragon and M1 stakes.
• Media earnings will take time to bounce back. From discussions with management, we believe that ad demand may have bottomed out. However, a recovery is still months away. Although overall demand visibility is unchanged, SPH feels that advertisers, including property developers, are more ready to advertise.
• Positives from pick-up in property market. The latest revaluation of Paragon by Knight Frank was S$1.98bn, slightly below 2008’s value of S$2.00bn, vs. our valuation of S$1.43bn. As major risks related to its properties have eased, we believe SPH’s share price should do well.
• Outperform. Our earnings estimates have been adjusted by -1.8% to +6.3% for FY09-11, to factor in a shift in revenue recognition for Sky@eleven from FY09 to FY10, and lower staff costs. Our media earnings assumptions are intact. Our sum-ofthe- parts target price has been raised to S$3.99 from S$3.52, boosted by the revaluation of Paragon at S$1.98bn vs. our previous estimate of S$1.43bn.
No sale of assets, for now. SPH is still looking to divest Paragon, subject to a ‘decent’ offer. It will also consider selling its stake in M1 once M1’s stock price is more attractive. However, it will not be selling its stake in MediaCorp as both companies are in related industries (media and communications).
Investors’ feedback. Generally, investors felt that SPH is holding too much cash given that it is not making major expansion.
No change in dividend policy. SPH will continue to pay out a high percentage of its recurring earnings. Now that major risks – devaluation of Paragon and buyers defaulting on Sky@eleven – have eased, some investors believe that its dividend payouts should be more sustainable. We are looking at DPS of around S$0.23, with S$0.07 paid earlier in 1H09.
Valuation and recommendation
Outperform. Our earnings estimates have been adjusted to factor in a shift in our revenue schedule for Sky@eleven from FY09 to FY10, and lower staff costs. Our media earnings assumptions are intact. Our sum-of-the-parts target price has been raised to S$3.99 from S$3.52, boosted by the revaluation of Paragon at S$1.98bn vs. our previous estimate of S$1.43bn. Given an improving macro outlook, we believe that SPH will continue to pay out a large portion of its recurring earnings as dividends. We
forecast dividend yields of 7-8% per annum.
1) SPH – company update (Anni KUM, DID: 64321470)
Previous Day Closing price: $3.12
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $3.90 (upgraded from $3.46)
Negligible devaluation of Paragon
Paragon was revalued on 3rd July 2009 at S$1.98b, 1% below its value in 2008 and 24% higher than our previous assumption in our SOTP valuation. Stronger-than-expected take-up of space at new shopping malls along the prime Orchard shopping belt and impending opening of the Integrated Resorts could be key reasons for minimal value diminution.
Waking up to more positive reality
Newspaper ads volume, particularly for Display property and mobile phone, had been firm in June. Print ad revenue had only declined 12.7% to-date; with only two months left to fiscal year-end, we maintain our view that that print ad revenue should decline less than previously expected (-25%). As such, we have raised FY09F and FY10F revenues by 6.3% and 6.5%.
Waning concerns on potential defaults
According to data from URA, resale units have recently been transacted at between $1140psf and $1355psf in June, compared to the average launch price of $960psf, hence minimizing concerns about potential defaults upon Sky@Eleven’s completion next year. At Paragon, pressure on rental rates upon renewal may be softer based on better-than-expected committed occupancy at high-end retail malls, with rental rates higher than that at Paragon ($30-40psf); ION Orchard (94%; at $20-$80psf) and Mandarin Gallery (85%; at $50-70psf).
Weaker yoy result still expected for 3QFY09
SPH’s 3QFY09 result is due on 13th Jul. We are estimating yoy decline in operating profit of around 17%. However, on revised assumptions of a 15% decline in print ad revenue for FY09F and average newsprint cost US$550/ton, our FY09F and FY10F net profit estimates have been raised by 9.5% and 10.5%, respectively.
SOTP target price raised on revised assumptions; maintain Buy
Our SOTP target price has been raised to $3.90 from $3.46 as we peg the Paragon to market value and raise the value of its core media business due to revised assumptions. Our new target price implies potential upside of 25% from the current price. The stock still offers a prospective dividend yield of 7.8% and normal yield of 6.3% in FY11, excluding development profits. Maintain Buy.
Previous Day Closing price: $3.12
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $3.90 (upgraded from $3.46)
Negligible devaluation of Paragon
Paragon was revalued on 3rd July 2009 at S$1.98b, 1% below its value in 2008 and 24% higher than our previous assumption in our SOTP valuation. Stronger-than-expected take-up of space at new shopping malls along the prime Orchard shopping belt and impending opening of the Integrated Resorts could be key reasons for minimal value diminution.
Waking up to more positive reality
Newspaper ads volume, particularly for Display property and mobile phone, had been firm in June. Print ad revenue had only declined 12.7% to-date; with only two months left to fiscal year-end, we maintain our view that that print ad revenue should decline less than previously expected (-25%). As such, we have raised FY09F and FY10F revenues by 6.3% and 6.5%.
Waning concerns on potential defaults
According to data from URA, resale units have recently been transacted at between $1140psf and $1355psf in June, compared to the average launch price of $960psf, hence minimizing concerns about potential defaults upon Sky@Eleven’s completion next year. At Paragon, pressure on rental rates upon renewal may be softer based on better-than-expected committed occupancy at high-end retail malls, with rental rates higher than that at Paragon ($30-40psf); ION Orchard (94%; at $20-$80psf) and Mandarin Gallery (85%; at $50-70psf).
Weaker yoy result still expected for 3QFY09
SPH’s 3QFY09 result is due on 13th Jul. We are estimating yoy decline in operating profit of around 17%. However, on revised assumptions of a 15% decline in print ad revenue for FY09F and average newsprint cost US$550/ton, our FY09F and FY10F net profit estimates have been raised by 9.5% and 10.5%, respectively.
SOTP target price raised on revised assumptions; maintain Buy
Our SOTP target price has been raised to $3.90 from $3.46 as we peg the Paragon to market value and raise the value of its core media business due to revised assumptions. Our new target price implies potential upside of 25% from the current price. The stock still offers a prospective dividend yield of 7.8% and normal yield of 6.3% in FY11, excluding development profits. Maintain Buy.
Singapore Press Holdings Limited wishes to announce that it will release its financial results for the Third Quarter ended 31 May 2009 on Monday, 13 July 2009.
Hmm.. hope to see outperforming results especially from its investment return.
Sell off at $3.010. Guess today will settle below $3.
Get out first with profit (Play safe as this big brother move too slow).
Come bk later.
This counter as solid as rock.
This elephant, my defensive counter. Finally increase its pace.

U make a fortune in his bro SPC? I should hv listen & bout some last time....totally miss it at $2 range.
Ha ha, AK no patience, chucked away ds burger quite early. See wealth turns into water, he he.
Farmer ( Date: 02-Jun-2009 10:57) Posted:
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Hohoho! This white elephant finally starts to move again.

There's this saying: when elephant moves, grass will suffer....does it mean that the end of the current rally is near? Well looks like 2400 and beyond is strong immediate resistant to clear.
Vested with Tp of $3.50 - $3.60 ~ 3x Nav. Huat Ah!
DIVESTMENT OF SHARES IN TOM OUTDOOR MEDIA GROUP
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_4201027E1CA49695482575B50031DB6C/$file/AnncTOM13.5.09.pdf?openelement
Singapore has only 1 whereas USA has many publishers...
Buffet say although he read 5 newspaper a day, he does not reccomend to buy newspaper co. as they are no longer cheap and have no growth potential
Today the elephant seem to be moving....
Incorporation of New Associate company in China
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_923A2FDA99FB55224825759F0029DB97/$file/AnncIncorpChina21.4.09.pdf?openelement
It is time to average up for this counter for those who bought at below $2.58.
Singapore Press Holdings
(SPH SP)
BUY
Current Price: S$2.89
Target Price: S$3.90
Sector Media
52-Wk Avg Daily Vol. ('000) 5,433
Market Cap (S$m) 4,648.3
(US$m) 3,066.8
Major Shareholders (%) No substantial
shareholders
Book NTA per Share (S$) 1.12
ROE (%) 20.8
Net Cash per Share (S$) (0..05)#
Results Due
1Q: Jan 2Q: Apr
3Q: Jul Final: Oct
SPH has declared interim DPS of 7 cents, lower than last year’s interim 8
cents. Management explained that to get the staff union to accept pay
cuts, these must be accompanied by dividend cuts. 1HFY09 EPS was 10
cents. Past full-year dividend payouts ranged between 80% and 100% of
net profit
Old alrdy, use to sleep late loh. As hv few holding on US stocks, at times must take a look liao. Esp, its stocks are high risk high return ones.
temp123 ( Date: 13-Apr-2009 09:51) Posted:
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