GLD USD
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-10.24
Gold going up this year?
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1001-1020 of 1037
U.S. gold futures hit record $959 an ounce
By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Gold roared above $960 an ounce
on Wednesday to its highest level ever, with investors pouring
money into the metal as oil hit another record above
$101 a barrel and the U.S. dollar tumbled against other currencies.
Spot gold <XAU=> rose as high as $963.40 an ounce, with
buying particularly from investors and speculators in Japan. It
was up from $946.60/947.40 late in New York on Tuesday and
has gained as much as 16 percent this year.
Silver rallied to its loftiest level since November 1980 on
investor buying as it was still cheaper than other precious
metals. Palladium jumped to its best level in more than six years
while platinum hovered below last week?s record.
?Investors are still very concerned about the fluctuations
and troubles in other markets,? said Darren Heathcote of Investec
Australia in Sydney.
?Let?s just say $970 is not inconceivable. As I guess $1,000
is not inconceivable. There doesn?t seem to be much reason to
sell gold,? he said.
The dollar hit a record low beyond $1.50 to the euro after
surprisingly weak U.S. data and comments by the Federal Reserve?s
No. 2 official reinforced views that the central bank will keep
cutting interest rates. [ID:nL27063602]
?The stock markets and oil are going up and that attracts
buying interest. Going ahead, we are talking about $970,? said
Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong
Kong, who pegged support at $930 an ounce.
Thanks Elfin, very kind and thoughful of you. :-)
Wat is yr take on keppel corp these days? do you think > 11.00 is the high end /hard to hit zone? am hoping for a considerable upswing to 11.50 for me to let go but seems rather remote, coz when > 11.00, everyone may juz sell and sell (shortists + dumping)
xie xie and cheerios!
thanks jalan tiong. :)
tip for you (caveat applies as usual): quite a few counters are range-bound; so it's perfect for trading. what you need to watch out for is the shifting of the entire range. which can lead to massive up swing, or down swing.
eg, currently,
ke's lower range is 1.75 to 2.03.
middle range is ~2.05 to 2.29.
higher range is 2.26-2.75.
one just needs to use williams for this counter. buy when >-90 oversold. sell when <-10 overbought. very regular, holding period of abt a mth. and doesn't need much watching. short of the sudden mitsubishi offer.
Hi Elfin
Recalled you mentioned yr last day at work was 22 Feb. Just dropping in to wish you all the best in yr new career (in time to come after you have yr deserving break), and a brand new chapter in your work life. Three cheers!
just a question: is anyone else in this counter, and needing TA for it? cos if i'm the only one holding onto gold and no one else needs TA help (subject to usual caveat emptor of course), then i won't post on it anymore.
must say, i love this counter though. hehe.
cheers!
as per my 20th jan post...retracement is expected lah...rsi currently abt 58, up from yest 52. had taken chance to buy some at 84.9 yest, but only abt halfway done with buying. dang thing won't go down....
gotta go slow for this one, and bit by bit. too unpredictable to tell when it will turn.
long term holding (ie, likely 3 mths at least). target is at least 105.
caveat emptor ah. not inducement to buy/sell.
Most futures tumble as well
By Wang Lan (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-01-23 10:29
Seventeen of the 19 commodity futures contracts traded on the mainland's three exchanges fell sharply yesterday in tandem with the worldwide market slump in the wake of growing concern about a US-led economic downturn.
The copper and zinc futures for delivery in 12 different months on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) dropped to the daily allowable limits shortly after the opening.
The most actively traded copper contracts for delivery in April plummeted to 58,560 yuan per ton, down 4.02 percent before touching the bottom.
Gold futures contracts on SHFE also continued the downward spiral for the third consecutive day, with the most actively traded contract for June delivery sliding 4.08 percent to 206.42 yuan per gram.
Analysts attributed the worldwide fall in commodity prices to investor worries about a possible glut in supply as demand tapers off in a recession-hit US. Their concern has been heightened by the latest batch of US economic figures pointing to an even worse outlook for 2008.
The data released by the US government in the past weeks showed rising unemployment, falling growth rate in the manufacturing sector and declining monthly retail sales, all of which point to a slowdown of the US economy that has been reeling from the subprime mortgage crisis since August.
"The price drop in the domestic market was triggered much more by dwindling investor confidence than market fundamentals," said Zhao Xijun, a professor of finance at Renmin University in Beijing.
Zhou Zhiqiang, an analyst at Great Wall Futures Co in Shanghai, said the deteriorating outlook for the US economy would raise traders' concern about a declining US demand for commodities in 2008 and hence trigger a selling spree in the international markets.
On Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), the nation's two futures exchanges specializing in agricultural produce, most contracts saw sharp price drops.
The most actively traded soybean contract for September delivery on DCE sank 3.29 percent to close at 4,550 yuan per ton, the biggest one-day drop over the past six months. The sugar contract for July delivery on ZCE also fell 1.96 percent to close at 3,707 yuan per ton.
Li Jingyuan, an analyst at Haitong Futures Co in Shanghai, said: "The all-round price drop of so wide a range of commodities in the domestic market is rare, which reflects a deepening investor concern about the global economy. As China's economy won't be an exception to the global trend, Chinese investors can't afford to shrug off growing fears of a global recession."
we'll see. time will bear the burden of proof, as usual. money has to flow somewhere, after all. :)
if you understand the fundamentals of the macroeconomics, you would not want to use RSI to time gold. gold is a play towards a unrepentent increase in money supply play.
the money to be made is not in GLD but in gold mining juniors on TSX or NYSE and in unit trusts on gold mining companies.
retracing as expected. may consider a buy between RSI 45-50.
yep. you need to see its ticker name tho. i trade on ocbc, the ticker is gld 10USD. yep, just like a normal stock: you'll see buy vol and sell vol. bid and ask px.
take note tho: one lot is 10 shares, not 1000. so the px you see: 90.65--means one lot will cost you 906.5 USD.
there'll be the exchange rate to factor in; but generally, if you're buying it, means you expect the px in gold to go up beyond the exch rate. (S$ to USD support at 1.42 and 1.39. we're about 1.44 now.)
supply: depends on who's willing to sell. px can be erratic throughout the day, so i'd advise to go in bit by bit. generally have to buy from seller; very few sellers is what i've observed from a couple of months back; of course, sellers have increased now, but even then, the buy demand is there. consistently it's buy ups. at some points, you'd even see all buyers no sellers.
oh and got some *@&)*@& ppl who like to potong queue. they'll queue one cent lower than you. hmph.
Thanks elf. You mean we can trade just like any stock (eg. using poem --- haha today kena throw stones). Does it mean that someone must willing to sell, then the buyer can buy ? Is there a fixed supply ?
hey sporeguy,
am not new to gold, since i've actually tracked it since oct 06, when it was about 593. didn't enter then tho, cos as females, my sis and i wanted the real gold bars, but the front load fees and all made it prohibitive (then). *bimbo moments...regret.. haha*
streettracks gold fund made it easy tho, no load fees and all that; trade just like a stock. so:
as per my nov 11 and 12 posts. i had actually entered gold at sub-80 then. had put 1/3 of my portfolio into it. recently sold out (it hit high of 92) but slowly getting back in again. it's too strong.
if my count is right, this retracement should go to lowest 86-87, thereafter the 100 is the target. if we do not retrace, then it's 95 as target. What was interesting (and what made me go into gold) was the charts: cos if you look at the 'downtrend' (nov 12 to dec 21) MACD, the px differential is 80.9 to 78.8--actual buy signal on RSI came on 24th dec, at 79.6.
compare the prices and the MACD chart. what this means is that the 'retracement' was essentially not a retracement: it instead began a strong new uptrend within a 2 dollar range.
think it is likely to repeat the pattern this time around. consistent charting patterns. in which case, may be good to catch the rebound, cos upside will then be to 100.
can consider buying... cos if you look at macro factors, the only way for gold to go is up. i have a feeling it may break the 1,000 per troy ounce level this year.
Use RSI for gold; this is its traditional indicator. 80 overbought is when it is likely going to retrace.
cheers! :)
gold's nicely retracing in a tanking market. can start looking to buy on weakness, but go slow. ;)
thanks for the explanation....think i will wait till Dec 11 before deciding
hey, apologies, my bad. DCA = dollar cost averaging. the investing model that's recommended by a lot of financial planners: put in a fixed sum every month/whatever, so that you average out the trend, because long term (over say, 10 years, 20 years) markets move up.
personally think that view is too simplistic/lazy. but if applied rightly, DCA works, esp in volatile markets. one splits up your intended amount into portions (say, 2, 3, or 4), and enter bit by bit. it gives a hedge against falling too much and getting caught.
be careful of gold tho, cos the trading vol is very low each day. ie, small lots can drop it by a lot. the last time gold hit RSI overbought, the next day it dropped $17.10. (the article is on money.cnn.com i think).
am lkg to enter the counter, but will see how. the crucial spot price to break is 875. if gold breaks that, it's uptrend.
caveat emptor yea...not an inducement to trade. :)
Sorry what's DCA?
hi...not yet to buy...RSI near overbought. might have a sudden sharp drop. overall long term trend is strongly up tho. so if you're afraid of missing the boat,, could always choose to go in a bit first, then when/if it drops, buy in again to DCA. 11th dec is Fed decision; futures show 64% likely to cut, up from 6% a week/weeks ago. So need to complete purchase by then.
cheers! :)
for the current price, is it still attractive to buy? I am considering to buy some ... need your opinion. thanks
