Vard   

STXOSV

Octavia      ( Date: 27-Apr-2013 15:16) Posted: Stock is down 2.7% at $1.08, at a new 52 wk low, and breaking a key $1.10 technical support. The momentum indicators are negative at the moment. The takeover by new parent Fincantieri, and hasty exit of previous significant shareholder Och-Ziff Management, has left the counter’s remaining ~44% float held by a fragmented pool of shareholders, likely a large portion being retail investors. No major recent corporate bad news to highlight. Nevertheless takeaways from the Maybank KE roadshow held yday are as follows, - 2013 will be a " tough" year, with earnings growth to kick in only from 2014 - outlook appears flattish, with operating margins to stay around 11-13% - the Brazil yard is currently a drag on the group an overheated shipyard industry has resulted in professional and labor shortages, and the yard has been fraught with delivery delays.The Vietnam yard currently suffers from lack of orders given limited demand for high-spec vessels in Asia - consensus order win estimates at ~NOK 9-11b, which would keep outstanding order book roughly constant - key catalysts are order wins with regard to large-sized Petrobras-related orders (timing unknown), and faster than expected ramp up of its second Brazil yard to alleviate pressures from its first yard. On Fincantieri, the parent group has an ambition to eventually become a major global shipyard group, integration is still on-going, but will take time.There is no indication of M& A angle at this point. On valuations, the stock trades at 6.6x P/e, 1.9x P/B. 1Q13 results are due 14 May.

 

Not sure will drift toward ipo price of  $0.79 or not......

 

Stock is down 2.7% at $1.08, at a new 52 wk low, and breaking a key $1.10 technical support. The momentum indicators are negative at the moment. The takeover by new parent Fincantieri, and hasty exit of previous significant shareholder Och-Ziff Management, has left the counter’s remaining ~44% float held by a fragmented pool of shareholders, likely a large portion being retail investors. No major recent corporate bad news to highlight.

Nevertheless takeaways from the Maybank KE roadshow held yday are as follows, - 2013 will be a " tough" year, with earnings growth to kick in only from 2014 - outlook appears flattish, with operating margins to stay around 11-13% - the Brazil yard is currently a drag on the group an overheated shipyard industry has resulted in professional and labor shortages, and the yard has been fraught with delivery delays.The Vietnam yard currently suffers from lack of orders given limited demand for high-spec vessels in Asia - consensus order win estimates at ~NOK 9-11b, which would keep outstanding order book roughly constant - key catalysts are order wins with regard to large-sized Petrobras-related orders (timing unknown), and faster than expected ramp up of its second Brazil yard to alleviate pressures from its first yard.

On Fincantieri, the parent group has an ambition to eventually become a major global shipyard group, integration is still on-going, but will take time.There is no indication of M& A angle at this point. On valuations, the stock trades at 6.6x P/e, 1.9x P/B.

1Q13 results are due 14 May.

 

broad selldown of O& M counters.

price fell below $1.22 (mandatory offer price).


no immediate positive catalysts (like dividend) or big contract win.

" sell in May and go away" sentiment scare.

simply no compelling reason to buy now.

jamesng      ( Date: 27-Apr-2013 10:41) Posted: Any reasons for the sell down? As this company industry is highly cyclic, at which point of the cycle it is now.... Any fundamental changes? Can anyone advise?

 

Me vested on this counter but keep still, and will add position only when there is a reversal sign.

Mean time, let it be and playing with other counters.

Moral of story, dont use all your ammo on one counter only. 

 

Any reasons for the sell down? As this company industry is highly cyclic, at which point of the cycle it is now....

Any fundamental changes? Can anyone advise?

 

bro SFGR, good that you realised it as I don't fully agree with your view below. I cut lost last month when the whole thing didn't look good and now looking back I think i have made a right decision.

 

I realize what I posted has been very insensitive, especially to those who have sold and realised their losses. Really no offence intended and I hope all of us can HUAT again soon. Once again, my apologies..

SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 21:32) Posted: On a positive note, judging from the 18 million shares traded today and since for every seller there is a willing buyer, this shows how much awareness and interest investors have in this stock. I do not know if there are any BBs purposely pushing down the price to buy in cheap and if there are, they are probably the ones responsible for setting the " trigger" of the stock falling below 1.22 and 1.215, so as to set off a rush of massive panic selling. I hate to say this, but if that's really the case, people could have more " integrity" by holding and not selling, so we would not have played right into the hands of them. There is a saying that the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer, and if my assumed scenario is true, this is exactly what is happening and we are pushing for this to be realized. Technical charts may indicate the start of a " bearish" trend, but ultimately is up to the market, which is shareholders like us to determine how " bearish" it should be. Unless there are really other better undervalued stocks that have broken resistance and is on an uptrend, or if one really needs the money urgently for some other purposes, I feel it is not very right to sell just like that, especially so if fundamental analysis is part of the reason why you buy a stock. Besides, I don't really see much negative news to advocate selling for this counter. Having said, Mr Market will decide which is the next support level. Sorry for the long post. Happy Weekend!!

 

The stock will rise next week definitely as shortists cover and probably some bargain hunting. Thereafter, the price movement is anybody guess. May, a lull month is coming and if the STI index momentum from this week carry over, may see some support to VARD price. Do what is needed, be it cut loss, reduce exposure, hedging, accumulate, average down just keep calm and watch for reversal signal. I will take a short break next week and won't be watching the market.

novice_trader      ( Date: 27-Apr-2013 00:31) Posted: Hi fellow bros, will there be a better day for this counter next week? I'm lossing some blood in this counter but still vested. Probably some sleepless nights over the weekend.

 

Hi fellow bros, will there be a better day for this counter next week? I'm lossing some blood in this counter but still vested. Probably some sleepless nights over the weekend.

 

Good advice and I totally agree with you. I would prefer to keep rather then sell when this stock has good   fundamental. 

Time will tell. 

 

Everyone do have a Good weekend 

shareflux      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 18:32) Posted: The value trap is in play now. Ezion is PE 20 and going up. VARD is PE 7 and going down. Logically u will buy VARD. But technically the stock is bearish and its low valuation and inferred " cheap" can go cheaper, hence the appearance of a " trap" . Quite obvious if you are logical, you wont go there knowing there is a trap. But whoever set the trap ulterior motive is not to bankrupt the company.Once we get that clear, we will watch the trap and see when it will be removed. Sign of reversal is when there is divergence in the oscillators or the slowing of the selling followed by strong reversal signal... As i rightly said earlier, VARD probably would need to get worse before getting better.. I am vested and will rightly hold on to my tickets. Would not touch this share again until the dust settle. So if you are looking at a PE of 10, a re rating of the stock to $1.50 will come. For those who bought in at 1.20-1.25 which i believe most of us do, you can average down. Otherwise use your $$ on other uptrend stock. No point trying to pick bone as the current situation is not clear and we dont know whether the cheap today will not be cheaper tomorrow.

 

On a positive note, judging from the 18 million shares traded today and since for every seller there is a willing buyer, this shows how much awareness and interest investors have in this stock. I do not know if there are any BBs purposely pushing down the price to buy in cheap and if there are, they are probably the ones responsible for setting the " trigger" of the stock falling below 1.22 and 1.215, so as to set off a rush of massive panic selling. I hate to say this, but if that's really the case, people could have more " integrity" by holding and not selling, so we would not have played right into the hands of them. There is a saying that the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer, and if my assumed scenario is true, this is exactly what is happening and we are pushing for this to be realized. Technical charts may indicate the start of a " bearish" trend, but ultimately is up to the market, which is shareholders like us to determine how " bearish" it should be. Unless there are really other better undervalued stocks that have broken resistance and is on an uptrend, or if one really needs the money urgently for some other purposes, I feel it is not very right to sell just like that, especially so if fundamental analysis is part of the reason why you buy a stock. Besides, I don't really see much negative news to advocate selling for this counter. Having said, Mr Market will decide which is the next support level. Sorry for the long post. Happy Weekend!!

 

I like your analysis. This stock is certainly not for the faint hearted. Let give her some time to find her way to her root to her Italian daddy. That being said, I believe it could be due to the Italy general election deadlock   stalemate and the lack of positive news (contracts) to spark the price. Just my 2 cents worth comment     

 

shareflux      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 18:32) Posted: The value trap is in play now. Ezion is PE 20 and going up. VARD is PE 7 and going down. Logically u will buy VARD. But technically the stock is bearish and its low valuation and inferred " cheap" can go cheaper, hence the appearance of a " trap" . Quite obvious if you are logical, you wont go there knowing there is a trap. But whoever set the trap ulterior motive is not to bankrupt the company.Once we get that clear, we will watch the trap and see when it will be removed. Sign of reversal is when there is divergence in the oscillators or the slowing of the selling followed by strong reversal signal... As i rightly said earlier, VARD probably would need to get worse before getting better.. I am vested and will rightly hold on to my tickets. Would not touch this share again until the dust settle. So if you are looking at a PE of 10, a re rating of the stock to $1.50 will come. For those who bought in at 1.20-1.25 which i believe most of us do, you can average down. Otherwise use your $$ on other uptrend stock. No point trying to pick bone as the current situation is not clear and we dont know whether the cheap today will not be cheaper tomorrow.

 

Read Cimb report cut off of brazil tender result few weeks after mid apr, with some say 20 apr. should be soon

 

The value trap is in play now. Ezion is PE 20 and going up. VARD is PE 7 and going down. Logically u will buy VARD. But technically the stock is bearish and its low valuation and inferred " cheap" can go cheaper, hence the appearance of a " trap" . Quite obvious if you are logical, you wont go there knowing there is a trap. But whoever set the trap ulterior motive is not to bankrupt the company.Once we get that clear, we will watch the trap and see when it will be removed.

Sign of reversal is when there is divergence in the oscillators or the slowing of the selling followed by strong reversal signal... As i rightly said earlier, VARD probably would need to get worse before getting better.. I am vested and will rightly hold on to my tickets. Would not touch this share again until the dust settle.

So if you are looking at a PE of 10, a re rating of the stock to $1.50 will come. For those who bought in at 1.20-1.25 which i believe most of us do, you can average down. Otherwise use your $$ on other uptrend stock. No point trying to pick bone as the current situation is not clear and we dont know whether the cheap today will not be cheaper tomorrow.

 

How come so many not " steady" investor around ah? What sifu, expect view....etc. How many really is vested ?

Be steady lah. Happy WeekEnd

 

 

 

Brazil tender result very soon :)

 

Yeap, trading style and investment strategy can be very personal and subjective. As long as it works for you, you should stick with yours. Likewise, I will also leverage again after it has stabilized. Happy weekend!!

kenkenken      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 17:13) Posted: Yes some will say dont fall in love with a share. Some will say greed when there fear But i dont like to give comment where head or tail is anwer. My buying is base on my trading style. All the best to those holder who may alot lost. Ur decision will depend on your style. Listen and act frm other u will nv learn. Learn and decide urself. kenkenken      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 17:07) Posted: No problem with the companu imho. I will ave out at support again

 

Yeap you are probably right. Whatever reason for the selldown anyway, this stock is " spooky" .. The analysts are not wrong to say that this stock has good fundamentals. But ever since it broke support level @ 1.22, the " bleeding" won't stop. Let's just hope Monday it has a fresh and good start with a new name.

gnsmj5056      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 17:01) Posted: Apologies! Wrong choice of words more appropriate -would be disappointed. There is no anger nor spite and you are right in saying not to get emotional and I dont   - as I am already not vested. Just to share that one of my colleagues who " fell in love" in love with this counter found it difficult to cut loss until I gave him similar advice and on highsight he is still thankful for following my opinion/advice.  Best regards Not vested  SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 16:52) Posted: I am just curious. How and what did the company did to have made investors feel " played out" ?? Your words sounds full of spite and anger - getting too emotional, which is a big no-no when trading/investing in shares.

 

Yes some will say dont fall in love with a share. Some will say greed when there fear
But i dont like to give comment where head or tail is anwer. My buying is base on my trading style. All the best to those holder who may alot lost. Ur decision will depend on your style. Listen and act frm other u will nv learn. Learn and decide urself.

kenkenken      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 17:07) Posted: No problem with the companu imho. I will ave out at support again. SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 16:52) Posted: I am just curious. How and what did the company did to have made investors feel " played out" ?? Your words sounds full of spite and anger - getting too emotional, which is a big no-no when trading/investing in shares.