
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
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Thursday, September 10, 2009
Gold Breakout??
by Larry Edelson
http://www.gliq.com/cgi-bin/click?weiss_uwd+16702-3+UWD167SPLIT2
richtan ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:53) Posted:
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Trade What You See, Not What You Hear (from all those MFT)
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
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Cheongwee,
Debates n our differences in opinions aside (lets co-exist n not belittle each other while glorifying own beliefs at the expense of others, having multi-beliefs adds more variety to this forum), I wish u speedy recovery from your ops.
AK_Francis ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:06) Posted:
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Posted: 10-Sep-2009 23:33 Contact richtan * Quote this Post! | |
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Try telling Mark Skousen and many other TA practitioners like Alexander Elders, Gregory L. Morris, Steve Nison, John Murphy, those TA experts in "Uncommon Wisdom", "Money and Markets", "RickAckerman.Com", "Oil N' Gold" , "Big Trends.com", 'incestment U" and many endless list tat TA is "rubbish thing", lousy. Read below Mark Skousen logic on why TA is not "rubbish thing" nor lousy: How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Trading by Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist
"The overwhelming majority of economic theories, market forecasts, trading strategies, investment systems, hot tips and sure-fire speculations never pan out." ~ Alexander Green In the August 14 Investment U issue - "Why Most Investment Systems Simply Don't Work" - Alexander Green urged you to stick with the tried-and-true method of fundamental analysis. He did so using this mantra: "There is only one thing that dictates where a stock will go: earnings." I agree that earnings are the ultimate determinant of stock prices in the long run. But that's not the only way to gauge where a stock is headed next. I firmly believe that technical analysis - volume, trading patterns and historical trends - can enhance your returns tremendously and can keep you out of trouble in many cases. Here's why... How an Earnings-Based Investment Model Crippled Bank of America Buyers The problem with taking a straight earnings approach to investing is that stock prices aren't determined by current or past earnings, but by future earnings in relation to the current price. Throughout the past decade, for example, earnings looked great for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). In June 2008, it earned a record $3 billion. You'd have made a bundle of money investing in BAC during the new millennium. Factoring in rising dividends, stock splits and share price appreciation, you'd have tripled your money. But over the next year, Bank of America's earnings plummeted, and by the end of 2008 it had lost $2.3 billion. The stock followed, collapsing from $50 to under $3 a share, wiping out all of the previous eight years' worth of profits (although the stock has since rebounded to $17 a share). By time the bank announced a sharp drop in earnings, the price was way down - and investors who bought based on earnings had lost their shirts. So how does one anticipate an earnings collapse like that? Use Technical Analysis to Prevent Pain - And Profit Needless to say, sound economic analysis doesn't hurt. Many economists (including our own Alex Green) predicted a real estate collapse and the subsequent financial trouble. But using technical and historical trend analysis can also prove extremely helpful in improving your investment results. For example, many technical analysts have fared extremely well over the past decade (and more), using chart patterns, volume and historical trends. And investors like Bert Dohmen, Jim Dines and Dennis Slothower profited from major trends in commodities, stocks and foreign currency, while avoiding most of the financial crises in 2008, because they used an advanced version of technical analysis. Here are two other simple tools that have proven very effective...
If you used these two technical tools together, you'd have got out the stock market in October 2007 and not re-entered until April this year - without being whipsawed back into the market. Not bad. Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/ Gauging Investor Sentiment... Tech-Style Put simply, technical analysis isn't a crystal ball, but it's a good way to measure the psychology of the market. When new highs and new lows are at all-time highs, it suggests a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if the indicator is at an all-time low, it signals incredible pessimism. The new highs/new lows indicator gave a sell signal in October 2007 and a buy signal in April 2009 it's still bullish. According to the chart, the market is headed higher, so investors should consider several choices... Of course, technical traders use a variety of ratios, indicators and charting patterns to make their buying and selling decisions. Their systems are never perfect because human action is not always predictable, but human behavior and the herd instincts are sometimes quite apparent and experienced traders can make a great deal of money and avoid the worst of bear markets. Good trading - AEIOU, Mark Skousen |
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
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Wat makes u said all tat is bcos of your lack of in depth TA knowledge n making mockery of TA, so I m not the least bothered to convince u tat TA does have such thing as leading indicators, just tat u are unaware n making your uninformed comments.
So I seek your kind co-operation to stop belittle others beliefs just in your attempts to convert others to your beliefs, to each his own beliefs, show some respect to others beliefs.
richtan ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:22) Posted:
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cheongwee ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 00:45) Posted:
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Dear Cheongwee,
I'm waiting for your post..........Please don't go for your Operation too long....
cheongwee ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 00:45) Posted:
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Well, no point debating, u have your beliefs as well as TA practitioner have their beliefs, so it is best to live in harmony just as our PM said about religious harmony, so dun criticise n belittle others n debase others but glorify your own beliefs.
If u dun believe in TA, jsut ignore n dun read but dun criticise it as there are others whom believe in TA will want to read.
As Confucious said: "Dun do onto others wat u dun want others to do unto u"
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
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cheongwee ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 00:45) Posted:
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kellychang...you know this word "irrational exuberence"...a famous word by Al;an Greenspan..
we dont know what is in front...but some time this market rally can go on and on and on...
i shd be worry...i am going for an operation next January...TA for cheongfwee is point down to hell...hahahah...i am joking but really. i am going for an opreration....that is my second one..at Mt E.
wish me luck...
haha....thanks u..cheongwee...
well, my sifu said market will probably got a 20% correction this year..maybe oct or early nov..but who know ...maybe come early...
then he also said...it maybe have a new high next year on IR opening...
but aft IR..then we can bye bye liao...
well...that is my sifu share his opinion to me...well, i also do homework....n i agree on what he said...
well...this is my sharing...doesn really mean market will go down...well...if u see ur chart bullish...or whatever, can still go ahead to buy.....
Oh my dear kellychang...even a kid know nothing go up forever..correction for sure..a matter of time..
stay out for now....unless you trade with strict rule...
no worry dear...when time come you know cheongwee call u to buy..you got to be brave and buy..OK..but when thing is wrong i call u cut ..u cut OK..
no worry...we do this with blues first , like i did this Mar...then later mid cap and penny..
i will help you...i have my way, but i cant share it here...i will be sue..if i ahr and they happen to see it...i paid a few k to learn this.trading method,,,,..but not TA lah....this TA..u can learn fr richtan...it is free...
u are right...even WB suffer..initially...so all sifu are as good as dead...
but u can afford to bet against the market, provided u bet with the profit u make...not your money..the so call casino money...so it is ok...for me...i agree with you i can afford to do this because i make profit...so if lose ..just less profit..that is all..
but no worry...what TA cannot see is leading economic data...i can tell you ..they are all still lousy..
most likely u got chance to buy at a new low...
but problem is when that happen...ppl are scare to buy...becos, you see it drop day to day...your heart break...but it is time to be brave...
that is why i said buy blues only..."BUY BLUE ONLY."...next leg down..never mind u like TA...i say it is 50/50...does not means it is totally...useless...but it is guessing..
iu see chart for reference...definitely not for forcasting...gd luck...
kellychang ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 00:11) Posted:
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i thk u could be wrong this time, why? look at the dollar ..it is tremendously oversold as i read fr expert explaination...i agree with them...
what i thk going forward is that stock will fall big time together with gold and dollar will soar...as soon as fall....
just ask yourself....the dow have soar 50% and sti 84% fr low without a meaningful correction...how much more upside have we got???..10% more..i thk the most...but if it correct it is going to be deep..i dont know how deep. but more than 25% is possible..
so i thk u know what i means....with little upside , but steep downside...the action shd take is clear...pls dyodd..
jsut to shr...currently even as dow soar..our makrt are not moving esp for mid cap and penny...in fact..i am down on profit some 10%..
my initial thking was...run on big bad news...but if i will to wait and see muy profit slowly eaten up...and together with the correction...i am staring at even greater loss...so u know what action i will take next week...
i have suggest to those who pm me to take similar action....dyodd.
Livermore ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:44) Posted:
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well....
agree...
i wish to have sifu...is my matter....well, i learned a lot from him...also from others...
but i also do my own homework...that is ...
well i must say something...my sifu not those say say type...he also know TA, FA....
well...he studied a lot about market also...and went seminar...
well...he just asked me be caution that is all...
also, he say...chance of market is going down is very likely....
cus i am not those type can run road n afford to lost big those type...
so i rather wait till it drop then buy...that is...
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:59) Posted:
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if you want to regard anybody here as your sifu, or whatever, that is your wish...but you must dyodd..
in fact all are my sifu, here...i am like richtan said ..base on luck..so far lucky...hehehe
TA are base on past data...when Feb ,Mar..all TA was painting a bliss pic ..it is not the chart that was shown...when Mar..u dont see the wave of April onward...it is misleading, as good as guessing..
It is like driving a car, but u keep looking backward and said to yourself ..well so far the road is straight..in front shd be stright also...till it come a bend...then it is different story again...
when u read an analyst explain his TA...what you always see and hear????...."IF"...the wor d if is very common...if it beeak, 1040 then it is very bullish..."if" it did not .,..then...all the "if" was it is guessing right???
If u drive a car and keep looking backward,,you are bound to get into trouble...
for real indicator..u must observe the leading indicator...chart is 50?50 like rich tan said...he agree on this...if i am not wrong...so TA are 50/50...why waste time and money learning thing that are 50/50...isn.t it like gambling...you say now...your turn...
I guess you might not buy anything
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:52) Posted:
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well...i agree on this...
but when market sentisement not good...all good stock also become bad n lousy stock...that is....
Livermore ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:44) Posted:
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