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Stocks Correction Mid September to Early October
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Fundamentals and Contract wins will be thrown out of window for this sell down. Those without fundamentals and only pure speculations and price is rather high = Good meat for BB to short it down.
Caution Caution
I have been asking people to observe/Monitor the market :) As the storm approaches, how bad i donno current my estimates will be 2400-2500 range, if BB over-react it could be deadly we might see 2200.
kellychang ( Date: 02-Oct-2009 07:34) Posted:
hi risktaker...
well....u dun always post bearish thread...people will rate us bad post....
i noticed that....
well...since u guys so like bull...
ok, this time, i say all cheong up...sti cheong to 3000....but i say say only ohh....
think is impossible....ahahahaha
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hi risktaker...
well....u dun always post bearish thread...people will rate us bad post....
i noticed that....
well...since u guys so like bull...
ok, this time, i say all cheong up...sti cheong to 3000....but i say say only ohh....
think is impossible....ahahahaha
欺山莫欺水，欺人莫欺心。Wake up people before its too late.
good luck guys - Trade with Caution tomorrow (Friday effect T.T and Extreme bad market sentiments)
Fed Promises Easy Money for an Extended Period
by Claus Vogt 09-30-09
Every few weeks the world’s most powerful and influential central bankers — those in charge of the world’s number one reserve currency, the U.S. dollar — come together in what’s called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). They discuss the economy, interest rates, financial markets and whatever else they deem important. Then they decide to set the Federal Funds Rate at a level they think is appropriate. And last week was their week. So today I want to analyze what their decisions mean for the stock market and for you as an investor. The Fed Statement Reassures
A Very Lax Monetary Policy … After each FOMC meeting, the Fed releases a statement. And the one for September 23, 2009, is very telling in my opinion. Here’s its most important part:
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| The FOMC meets regularly to decide where to set the Federal Funds Rate. |
“The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
As you can see, the Fed is promising a continuation of its extremely lax monetary policy “for an extended period.” So all the recent media talk about a soon-to-begin exit strategy or a normalization of monetary policy was obviously premature. The Fed is reassuring us that there will be easy money for as far as the eye can see. Why? Two reasons come to mind: First, the Fed is still very concerned about the economy … the employment situation is dire … and a double-dip recession is a real possibility Second, and more important, is that they know how precarious the banking situation still is. They know that the bad debt problems have not been solved … that most banks would go bankrupt if they had to implement mark-to-market rules … and that the banking system is still on life support. This Is Important News
For the Stock Market Since the Fed is confronted with two major problems — a shaky economy and an unstable banking system — it’s not worrying about a possible stock market bubble in the making. Why is this so important? Just look at the charts below. The stock market has rallied some 60 percent since the March low. But earnings are still very depressed. Hence the classic version of the P/E ratio — using twelve months trailing GAAP earnings — shot to the stratosphere!
Source: www.decisionpoint.com
Twelve-month trailing earnings as of the first quarter 2009 were a mere $6.86 for the S&P 500 making for a P/E ratio of 154. According to Standard and Poor’s, these earnings are estimated to rise to $7.51 in the second quarter, and $7.61 in the third quarter. Then they’re expected to jump to $39.35 in the fourth quarter and $43.58 in the first quarter 2010. Based on this last figure the P/E ratio will decline to 24.
Historically the normal range for this very P/E ratio — based on 12-month trailing GAAP earnings — has been between 10 (undervalued) and 20 (overvalued). Hence even if the corporate sector will see the estimated jump in earnings, the stock market is still very expensive.
Classic stock market valuation metrics show that this is a highly overvalued market. And overvalued markets can stay overvalued for a long time and even become more overvalued — as long as the Fed does not take away the proverbial punch bowl.
This means one of two things …
We’re Witnessing the Next Bubble, Or
Earnings Have to Increase Dramatically!
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| Fed chief Bernankes inflationary stance could be the fuel that ignites the next stock market bubble. |
Right now I can’t rule out either one. I do, however, lean towards the first. And in reading the Fed’s FOMC statement one thing becomes obvious: If we’re on our way to a new stock market bubble the Fed will not prick it any time soon. The September 23 statement that I cited earlier is as clear as you can expect from the Fed. Much clearer than anything Greenspan said during his long reign. His famous “irrational exuberance” speech, which was never followed by any action, is a perfect example. Bernanke is much different … From the very beginning of his career at the Fed he made it known that he’s a first class inflationist, and he strongly believes prosperity can be achieved by printing money. Now the Bernanke Fed is clearly reiterating this inflationary stance. By doing so the Fed is rubberstamping the current stock market rally and apparently not worrying about a possible bubble! There is an old Wall Street saying: “Don’t fight the Fed.” I think it’s wise to heed it in today’s environment. Best wishes, Claus
kellychang ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 11:04) Posted:
haha...kidding...well...i came here also just wish to share share... but when u guys so bullish that moment...then , i say so much i also useless... now i just wish to share....do u think SG current economic with GDP-4-5% then can have a index 3000? i am quite doubt about it... well, same scenario apply to US... please dun shoot me again ohh...i scared... i am just share share what i thinking...
AK_Francis ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:59) Posted:
| Ha ha, AK sincer apology, wat I meant, if one uncertain, dun throw out money for anything, safe n steady plus own judgement still d best, as wat 2Y for, as u d love one will live well without hassle. Cheers again |
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| Daryl Guppy: Secret escape from the panda bear |
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| Written by Daryl Guppy |
| Saturday, 05 September 2009 15:00 |
ONE SWALLOW DOESN'T make a summer and many believe that a few days of rebound in the Shanghai market doesn’t drive away the bearish mood. There is no question that the fall below the long-term trendline is particularly significant. It changes the nature of the trend in the market and the nature of the trend behaviour. The long-term trendline will now act as a formidable resistance to future rises in the trend. The shallow slope of the long-term trendline suggests a slower rate of a future trend rise for the Shanghai market. This is a good outcome because it will develop a more stable and sustainable uptrend. Fundamental analysts use arbitrary measures to distinguish between a retracement and a bear market. The measures of 10% for a technical correction and 20% for a bear market are convenient, but misleading ways to gauge market behaviour. They do not take into account the behaviour and development of trends. In an environment where the Dow Jones can rise or fall routinely by 3.5% or more a day, it makes little sense to define a technical correction based on a 10% figure. The characteristics of a bear market are related to the behaviour of the trend and not to a particular figure. This difference is very important when we consider the Shanghai Composite Index. A bear market is preceded by strong and clear chart patterns which give early warnings of a major change in the trend. The most common is the head-and-shoulder pattern. The rounding-top pattern is also a relievable leading signal of trend change. Both these chart patterns developed over several months. The head-and- shoulder pattern in the Shanghai Composite Index started in June 2007 and was confirmed six months later in January 2008. When we look at the Shanghai Composite Index behaviour in recent weeks or months, we cannot identify one of these bear-market patterns. There is no rounding-top pattern. There is no head-and-shoulder pattern. These patterns forecast a significant and prolonged change in the trend. Without these patterns, the significance of the recent index retreat and trend change is analysed differently. Further analysis indicates the market is showing the opportunity to apply Strategy 8 from the Chinese 36 Strategies. This is a Secret Escape Through Chen Cang. Analysts are focused on the bear market development, or distracted by the idea of a bubble collapse. They ignore the developing Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence pattern. The rally rebound in the last several days has confirmed this RSI divergence. This points the way to the secret escape from the bear market. Divergence occurs when two trendlines move in opposite directions during the same time period. Analysis starts with the Shanghai Composite Index chart. The first trendline is drawn between the low of Aug 20 and the low of Sept 1. This trend line slopes downwards. The next step is to consider the RSI indicator display. These index lows are compared to the low points on the RSI indicator for the same dates. These two RSI lows are joined with a trendline. This trendline moves upwards and confirms the RSI divergence pattern. This is a powerful and reliable trend reversal pattern. This pattern strongly suggests this market will develop a recovery uptrend. The RSI divergence pattern has one problem — it is not very good for understanding the time frame for the market recovery. When the divergence pattern develops, it does not mean the market will instantly recover and change the trend direction. The RSI divergence pattern warns that the current trend has weakened and a new trend is developing. This may be preceded by a period of consolidation and then develop a new uptrend. The consolidation area is easily identified on the Shanghai Composite Index chart. There is a strong resistance level near 3,000. This is the upper edge of the consolidation area. The lower edge is at 2,600. There is a high probability the market will move in a sideways trading band for several weeks before developing a breakout above 3,000. A market consolidation between 2,600 and 3,000 will provide short-term rally trading opportunities. This indicates investors are accumulating stocks and getting ready for the development of the next section of the longterm uptrend in the Shanghai market. This has been a savage sell-off but, the RSI divergence pattern shows the market can make a secret escape from the bear. The pattern of chart behaviour suggests this is not a bear market, despite the degree of retracement.  |
tanzq83 ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:03) Posted:
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chill.. i set up the particular thread not just for you, so dont take it too personal :).
too much speculations at that time without reasons, people just hitting ridiculous numbers that any children can also hit brainlessly.
a lot of things happened in the market recently and it kind of signals that it's time to pull back quite a bit in the next 1-2months.
I dont think another rally will come in for the 3rd quarter financial reports (just as we see during march and july, because people are factoring all the stimulus and optimism in the current market), if in the event that the companies fail to meet their forecast, then likely a major pull-back for the counter will come, if the companies just meet their forecast ~ i dont see much hike in the shareprice (because it's expected from there).
i also feel that china market (SSE) also gave some indications to what will happen in the next few months (and the investor sentiments). Surprisely, the SSE had down quite a bit to 2700region after edging above 3000pts last few weeks. The index had being pretty flat even with the influx of IPO ~ interest seems to wane off and I think this is a point to indicate that investors may be very cautious now as they pull back to look for indicators for global improvements.
personal opinion: hands off the market now if possible, correction around the corner in ~ 1-2months time. going to be more volatile, sentiment biased towards market downside.
my 2-cent worth.. :)
kellychang ( Date: 30-Sep-2009 23:21) Posted:
well...when i said STI 2200 then nobody believe....
well....u guys even open a thread...said if my msn down then go there to play around...
say STI 3000 , what n what....
ok, let see what going to happen.....
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yes...so i think now sti is overbought stage...
but next year, i dunno...
anyway, i am still pessimistic on it...
hoon88 ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 11:42) Posted:
hello kellychang,
I'm just a newbie in the investment arena. However I'd like to respond to your question about the negative GDP and bullish index.
Answer 1: The stock market has run away from the real economy. It does not reflect the still weak economic climate. People seem to be buying based on hope, not concrete indicators.
Answer 2: The stock market may be a precursor to the improving economy in the coming months.
My view is that it may be a combination of the two answers above. I'm a bit apprehensive about how much the STI has run up since March 09 and think that a 10-15% correction may be forthcoming soon. And that'll be the a good time to buy as we're entering the next bull market.
Just sharing my thoughts... |
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hello kellychang,
I'm just a newbie in the investment arena. However I'd like to respond to your question about the negative GDP and bullish index.
Answer 1: The stock market has run away from the real economy. It does not reflect the still weak economic climate. People seem to be buying based on hope, not concrete indicators.
Answer 2: The stock market may be a precursor to the improving economy in the coming months.
My view is that it may be a combination of the two answers above. I'm a bit apprehensive about how much the STI has run up since March 09 and think that a 10-15% correction may be forthcoming soon. And that'll be the a good time to buy as we're entering the next bull market.
Just sharing my thoughts...
haha...kidding...well...i came here also just wish to share share...
but when u guys so bullish that moment...then , i say so much i also useless...
now i just wish to share....do u think SG current economic with GDP-4-5% then can have a index 3000?
i am quite doubt about it...
well, same scenario apply to US...
please dun shoot me again ohh...i scared...
i am just share share what i thinking...
AK_Francis ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:59) Posted:
Ha ha, AK sincer apology, wat I meant, if one uncertain, dun throw out money for anything, safe n steady plus own judgement still d best, as wat 2Y for, as u d love one will live well without hassle. Cheers again.
kellychang ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:53) Posted:
well... just a bit funny... Last 2 weeks, i said STI 2200 then u guys say i siao, said i bull shit... Now i said again STI2200, u guys think i good thinking...hahaha.. ok well, i am just think ...think only... government will soon take out those money injected in market, the question is only when.... if economic if able to sustain even if government take out the money injected.....then well...we can have a real bulll run... but now...i dunno.... but now, i dunno...hope ben and us will not do silly things again... dun print so much money again just to booest the economic... else, u will see sg HDB cost us 1million....hahahahah
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Ha ha, AK sincer apology, wat I meant, if one uncertain, dun throw out money for anything, safe n steady plus own judgement still d best, as wat 2Y for, as u d love one will live well without hassle. Cheers again.
kellychang ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:53) Posted:
well... just a bit funny... Last 2 weeks, i said STI 2200 then u guys say i siao, said i bull shit... Now i said again STI2200, u guys think i good thinking...hahaha.. ok well, i am just think ...think only... government will soon take out those money injected in market, the question is only when.... if economic if able to sustain even if government take out the money injected.....then well...we can have a real bulll run... but now...i dunno.... but now, i dunno...hope ben and us will not do silly things again... dun print so much money again just to booest the economic... else, u will see sg HDB cost us 1million....hahahahah
AK_Francis ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:10) Posted:
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Good thinking, as what most of analysts does. Not worrying of 10 thousands, but just in case, a Chinese wise-saying.
In d darkess mth, 9 Mar ds yr, STI lowest marked 1456.95. But by end Mar, it climbed 300pts. Wah, tempting leh, but dare not to do anything.
Amazing, by early Apr, still see no down divergence, then shee swah loh, started picking up finance n ppty in NYSE and China Banks in HSI.
For STI, as both AK pockets kena pocked badly during d credit crunch, not much bullet left to support d then more expensive stocks. But picking up some penny with slight potential one. Now, thinking over, its a near miss, should then STI going back to 1500, after acq all d stocks, a second tragedy, really big wok loh.
Yes, d current global economy is still gloomy. Henceforth, be vigilant for any trading or invesment loh. As wat sifus always advocate, applying 2Y will never be wrong one. Cheers.
PS. An advance greeting for d coming Moon Cake Festival to all. However, sharing d moon cake with those needy one ard not a bad idea as well.
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well... just a bit funny...
Last 2 weeks, i said STI 2200 then u guys say i siao, said i bull shit...
Now i said again STI2200, u guys think i good thinking...hahaha..
ok well, i am just think ...think only...
government will soon take out those money injected in market, the question is only when....
if economic if able to sustain even if government take out the money injected.....then well...we can have a real bulll run...
but now...i dunno....
but now, i dunno...hope ben and us will not do silly things again...
dun print so much money again just to booest the economic...
else, u will see sg HDB cost us 1million....hahahahah
AK_Francis ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 10:10) Posted:
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Good thinking, as what most of analysts does. Not worrying of 10 thousands, but just in case, a Chinese wise-saying.
In d darkess mth, 9 Mar ds yr, STI lowest marked 1456.95. But by end Mar, it climbed 300pts. Wah, tempting leh, but dare not to do anything.
Amazing, by early Apr, still see no down divergence, then shee swah loh, started picking up finance n ppty in NYSE and China Banks in HSI.
For STI, as both AK pockets kena pocked badly during d credit crunch, not much bullet left to support d then more expensive stocks. But picking up some penny with slight potential one. Now, thinking over, its a near miss, should then STI going back to 1500, after acq all d stocks, a second tragedy, really big wok loh.
Yes, d current global economy is still gloomy. Henceforth, be vigilant for any trading or invesment loh. As wat sifus always advocate, applying 2Y will never be wrong one. Cheers.
PS. An advance greeting for d coming Moon Cake Festival to all. However, sharing d moon cake with those needy one ard not a bad idea as well.
kellychang ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 07:35) Posted:
ok well... i will enter if STI 2300 .....think still can enjoy a mini bull run... hmm, but next year, after mid 2010...tthen i dunno.... well, i am quite pessmistic on economic situation.....
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correction provides a good chance to enter the market at a cushioned price especially for those going in long term. Well known fact that (unless you're a bright trader), frequent trades may not beat buy hold for ETF. STI ETF shot up quite a bit over last few months. Even as people argue that the return to normalacy happened too fast, investors should prevent short sighted actions like shorting the market. My sense is we can use time to our advantage and tough it out. On the hold, one should earn a reasonable 7% a year on the average.
Having said that, I agree that the technicals look very weak. (herdish behaviour)
Good thinking, as what most of analysts does. Not worrying of 10 thousands, but just in case, a Chinese wise-saying.
In d darkess mth, 9 Mar ds yr, STI lowest marked 1456.95. But by end Mar, it climbed 300pts. Wah, tempting leh, but dare not to do anything.
Amazing, by early Apr, still see no down divergence, then shee swah loh, started picking up finance n ppty in NYSE and China Banks in HSI.
For STI, as both AK pockets kena pocked badly during d credit crunch, not much bullet left to support d then more expensive stocks. But picking up some penny with slight potential one. Now, thinking over, its a near miss, should then STI going back to 1500, after acq all d stocks, a second tragedy, really big wok loh.
Yes, d current global economy is still gloomy. Henceforth, be vigilant for any trading or invesment loh. As wat sifus always advocate, applying 2Y will never be wrong one. Cheers.
PS. An advance greeting for d coming Moon Cake Festival to all. However, sharing d moon cake with those needy one ard not a bad idea as well.
kellychang ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 07:35) Posted:
ok well... i will enter if STI 2300 .....think still can enjoy a mini bull run... hmm, but next year, after mid 2010...tthen i dunno.... well, i am quite pessmistic on economic situation.....
Peg_li ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 00:17) Posted:
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kelly, when you plan to enter the market? 2500 or 2200?
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chill.. i set up the particular thread not just for you, so dont take it too personal :).
too much speculations at that time without reasons, people just hitting ridiculous numbers that any children can also hit brainlessly.
a lot of things happened in the market recently and it kind of signals that it's time to pull back quite a bit in the next 1-2months.
I dont think another rally will come in for the 3rd quarter financial reports (just as we see during march and july, because people are factoring all the stimulus and optimism in the current market), if in the event that the companies fail to meet their forecast, then likely a major pull-back for the counter will come, if the companies just meet their forecast ~ i dont see much hike in the shareprice (because it's expected from there).
i also feel that china market (SSE) also gave some indications to what will happen in the next few months (and the investor sentiments). Surprisely, the SSE had down quite a bit to 2700region after edging above 3000pts last few weeks. The index had being pretty flat even with the influx of IPO ~ interest seems to wane off and I think this is a point to indicate that investors may be very cautious now as they pull back to look for indicators for global improvements.
personal opinion: hands off the market now if possible, correction around the corner in ~ 1-2months time. going to be more volatile, sentiment biased towards market downside.
my 2-cent worth.. :)
kellychang ( Date: 30-Sep-2009 23:21) Posted:
well...when i said STI 2200 then nobody believe....
well....u guys even open a thread...said if my msn down then go there to play around...
say STI 3000 , what n what....
ok, let see what going to happen.....
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An interesting article from 'The Edge Singapore' to share:
REALITY CHECK AHEAD
The unwinding of trading positions in some penny stocks may have an adverse affect on the market, with stocks, including quality names, coming under some selling pressure.
While selling pressure has been relatively mild the most part of the past two months, this could pick up temporarily.
“We have mentioned ….. the possibility of some short term STI downside. As equity investors turn more cautious, we can expect loans to segments such as financial institutions and share financing to be affected,” DMG states in a report today.
In the financial sector in August, loans rose 2.5% year-on-year, but only 1% month-on-month, led by share financing which was up 20.4% month-on-month. DMG is expecting loan growth to be lacklustre for the next few quarters due to the more cautious stance adopted by equity investors.
A symptom of the softer market was Wilmar International’s reluctance to list its Chinese operations in Hong Kong next week. According to a Thomson Reuters report, UBS said the Singapore-listed, Indonesian-based palm oil producer may delay its plan to list its China operation in Hong Kong because of market instability.
The Chinese operation is involved in oilseed crushing, edible oil refining and the production of edible oils, feed meal, oleochemicals and specialty fats in China. It is expected to be the largest Hong Kong IPO year-to-date at about US$3 billion ($4.2 billion) to US$4 billion. Wilmar lost 19 cents today in a negative reaction to the news.
Investors and speculators had driven the stock up from $3.40 to a level just shy of $7 since Apr-May this year, in anticipation of a China or Hong Kong listing. An official announcement from the company said: “Wilmar China is assessing market conditions and other considerations relevant to the evaluation of its Hong Kong IPO. The actual timing of its IPO will be dependent on conditions which are deemed to be in the best interest of the company.”
IPOs in North Asia have had a fairly frosty reception in recent weeks. China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining has priced its IPO at just above the mid-point of the offering range at HK$3.50 (64 cents) for a total deal size of HK$2.06 billion. The shares were offered in a range between HK$3.12 and HK$3.86.
New IPO Peak Sport Products dropped 17% on its first day of trading yesterday and Metallurgical Corp of China’s H shares fell 11.7% in their debut last Thursday. Its share price is currently 16.2% below the IPO price. In the US, Chinese online gaming company Shanda Games lost 14% when it started trading last Friday.
Technically, Wilmar’s stock performance could be causing the chart pattern to produce a top formation. The breakdown level is $6.30, and the stock ended trading at $6.32 today, a shade above the 50-day moving average at $6.28. A breakdown appears almost inevitable, and such a move indicates a downside of $5.60.
Chart Watch: Property stocks look weak technically
It isn’t just Wilmar that is threatening to break down, but property stocks as well. Counters like Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation and Keppel Corp are barely hanging on to their supports.
For instance, Allgreen Properties has broken below its 50-day moving average, and is barely holding on to the neckline of a top formation at $1.11. Allgreen stock last traded at $1.13 and this week could be make or break for it. If it’s a break, then the downside is 90 cents.
Elsewhere, City Developments is grabbing at its 50-day moving average at $10.13. Its share price traded at $10.31 today, and the breakdown level is at $10.00.
Since technicals look precarious, it’s probably time for a reality check following the almost euphoric mood of the past month. At a time like this, it would be prudent for traders to close out positions. Long-term investors would probably still be best served sitting and waiting for the final wave.
Zhuge Liang and me have our own reasons. But its against the Heaven if we reveal :) So Good luck
CWQuah ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 01:19) Posted:
Risktaker,
Don't bother to predict. Not many ppl can secondguess the market correctly. And secondguessing wrongly can be very painful.
Just plan for both up and down scenarios - mark out your technical charts diligently, or review the fundamentals of your stocks objectively. And once you have a trading/investment plan, ACT UPON THE PLAN. And make sure stoploss always in place.
Don't even assume certain previous market norms/behaviours will persist. See what mkt does, then act. Don't act just because so-and-so month is traditionally bad for mkt, etc. All these persistence of beliefs can cloud judgment.
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ok well...
i will enter if STI 2300 .....think still can enjoy a mini bull run...
hmm, but next year, after mid 2010...tthen i dunno....
well, i am quite pessmistic on economic situation.....
Peg_li ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 00:17) Posted:
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kelly, when you plan to enter the market? 2500 or 2200?
kellychang ( Date: 30-Sep-2009 23:52) Posted:
people here really dunno bear...
hahaha...hmm...but if bear really come, we want avoid also cant escape....
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I trust Zhuge Liang :)
CWQuah ( Date: 01-Oct-2009 01:19) Posted:
Risktaker,
Don't bother to predict. Not many ppl can secondguess the market correctly. And secondguessing wrongly can be very painful.
Just plan for both up and down scenarios - mark out your technical charts diligently, or review the fundamentals of your stocks objectively. And once you have a trading/investment plan, ACT UPON THE PLAN. And make sure stoploss always in place.
Don't even assume certain previous market norms/behaviours will persist. See what mkt does, then act. Don't act just because so-and-so month is traditionally bad for mkt, etc. All these persistence of beliefs can cloud judgment.
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Risktaker,
Don't bother to predict. Not many ppl can secondguess the market correctly. And secondguessing wrongly can be very painful.
Just plan for both up and down scenarios - mark out your technical charts diligently, or review the fundamentals of your stocks objectively. And once you have a trading/investment plan, ACT UPON THE PLAN. And make sure stoploss always in place.
Don't even assume certain previous market norms/behaviours will persist. See what mkt does, then act. Don't act just because so-and-so month is traditionally bad for mkt, etc. All these persistence of beliefs can cloud judgment.
