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To BobChong,
Well. My theory is simple : Greed, Complacency, and Fear. Same for Buyers and Shortist. When our stocks go up to the moon and we still keep buying (That's Greed!), and When we are very relax and do nothing (like today!! It's Complacency), then When the next selling coming (we are afraid of losing our profit/ go into a loss, it's called Fear). All this sentiments are just normal human behaviour. Why I said shorting should indicate the ending of a bearish pattern??
1. When shortist come in, Our Complacency becomes Fear.
2. Shortist will find it so easy to short that they will keep shorting....(Shortist's Greed).
3. But Shortist will need to cover back later.
So, if there's an indication that the number of shortists are increasing in the market plus the 'fear' from investors. That's when I call a 'near bottom'. I believe it's good time to collect...
At this moment, I belive we are still relax and not in Fear yet......so we should still have way down to go.
Let's see if I am right. I prefer to be wrong becos I m still 60% invested (Down from 120% a month ago). That's all!!! Hope does not confuse you.
Well. My theory is simple : Greed, Complacency, and Fear. Same for Buyers and Shortist. When our stocks go up to the moon and we still keep buying (That's Greed!), and When we are very relax and do nothing (like today!! It's Complacency), then When the next selling coming (we are afraid of losing our profit/ go into a loss, it's called Fear). All this sentiments are just normal human behaviour. Why I said shorting should indicate the ending of a bearish pattern??
1. When shortist come in, Our Complacency becomes Fear.
2. Shortist will find it so easy to short that they will keep shorting....(Shortist's Greed).
3. But Shortist will need to cover back later.
So, if there's an indication that the number of shortists are increasing in the market plus the 'fear' from investors. That's when I call a 'near bottom'. I believe it's good time to collect...
At this moment, I belive we are still relax and not in Fear yet......so we should still have way down to go.
Let's see if I am right. I prefer to be wrong becos I m still 60% invested (Down from 120% a month ago). That's all!!! Hope does not confuse you.
very quiet, school holidays, world cup, no company reporting.. can sleep.
very quiet, school holidays, world cup, no company reporting.. can sleep.
Dear Eddyte
I don't understand your comment that when traders are shorting stocks it indicates an end of the bearish phase or do I understand you incorrectly?
Your reply is greatly appreciated.
Thanks.
after July 4, 2006, market should be UP>>
I am still positive about the market. Businesses are gping well. only concerns are the looming impact of interest rate hike... but my view is that the intrest rate is sustainable in view of the growth of the Asian economies. May be investors are just edgy now and need to find a reasons to make money. Overall, not pessimistic. I think it shld be ok by early july. I hv about $200k in the market.
The Bull is DEAD.
Well. Thanks for the few replies, based on these, I can say that almost all of us feel bearish of the market, but we all (incl me) are still invested in the market and none dares to short. This should tell us that market still not fully done with its recent downtrend yet. I prefer to see some people shorting the markets to confirm that we are very near the bottom. Hope I can see more replies to see how we all feel of the market. Please be honest. Thanks. BTW, I am 60% invested now after today.
S$120k investment....and 20% invested.
$30k in the investment ... and 40% invested
feeling bearish
feeling bearish
I am totally out of the market. Have been out for the past 2 weeks - just before the fall.
So 0% invested
just watching from the sidelines.
So 0% invested
just watching from the sidelines.
I am 100% invested.. or infested ?
Dear Friends,
Further to my posting. If possible, I really appreciate if you could also inform us your percentage of investment as compared to the amount of fund available to you for investment. OK....My point is : I hope this research will tell us (if the numbers are honest and enough) whether the market is fully invested or just under investment. Since we do not know each other, it will be better for us to be honest and see how all of us behaves. As a contrarian, I believe if we are heavily invested, then the market can only go downward and vice versa. For example : If you have $100k for investment, and your portfolio is $50k, then you are 50% invested. If you are on margin of about $50k, then you are 150% invested. And if you short the market by $50k, then you are -50%.
I hope it's not too confusing. If we can get enough data to let all of us learn, it should be a good guide for all of us to manage our investment better. Thanks again. BTW, I am 50% invested up to today. Try to be honest. Thanks again.
Further to my posting. If possible, I really appreciate if you could also inform us your percentage of investment as compared to the amount of fund available to you for investment. OK....My point is : I hope this research will tell us (if the numbers are honest and enough) whether the market is fully invested or just under investment. Since we do not know each other, it will be better for us to be honest and see how all of us behaves. As a contrarian, I believe if we are heavily invested, then the market can only go downward and vice versa. For example : If you have $100k for investment, and your portfolio is $50k, then you are 50% invested. If you are on margin of about $50k, then you are 150% invested. And if you short the market by $50k, then you are -50%.
I hope it's not too confusing. If we can get enough data to let all of us learn, it should be a good guide for all of us to manage our investment better. Thanks again. BTW, I am 50% invested up to today. Try to be honest. Thanks again.
directionless for June, July should be better, after June 29 FOMC meeting.
I generally think its a bear market now. I don't foresee any upside to the market until after the world cup.
Dear Friends,
I am trying to poll how all of us feel of the market. If possible please help me by writing in less than 30 words how you feel of the market. I really appreciate.
My Sentiment :
I think the STI already reached its peak this year. It should be time to cash out if there is a rebound.
I am trying to poll how all of us feel of the market. If possible please help me by writing in less than 30 words how you feel of the market. I really appreciate.
My Sentiment :
I think the STI already reached its peak this year. It should be time to cash out if there is a rebound.