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Forex Junction

 

caveat emptor ... for educational and entertainment purposes only ... not an inducement

 

 

Feb09: does not include open position gain of 344 pips ( 200 + 144 ) on weekly chart

caveat emptor ... for educational and entertainment purposes only ... not an inducement

 

 

 

caveat emptor ... for educational and entertainment purposes only ... not an inducement

 

Demo Trade -- UJ

" the kite is really lifting off on a steady current of wind and the string is quite taut "

....had moved the stop-loss to 96.14 for a lock-in  for 200 pips .....


caveat emptor 

 

The yen seems to continue on negative tone, making USD/JPY lucrative for investors and as we said in the previous articles, the pair reached 97, its first target and now next target seems to be 100 in the coming days. The fact that dollar is strong and yen is extremely weak, makes the pair the ideal trading pair for now and even risk aversion don’t seem to influence the buying appetite. Economic conditions in Japan are so negative and therefore make traders not trusting the yen as a safe haven currency any more.

Let’s see how markets will react after the second testimony by Bernanke in front of the Senate and if the dollar continues to gain at the back of futures losses. There is a strong correlation between action in stocks and the dollar, and the weakness we witnessed yesterday in dollar came more from futures appreciating. Today that has changed so far and if futures continue to fall, further dollar strength is awaited…

http://www.spikecharts.com/blog/post/2009/02/25/Dollar-Strength-is-Haunting-the-Markets!.aspx

 

Demo Trade -- UJ

had moved the stop-loss to 95.54 for a lock in for 150pips



 

caveat emptor -- chart by novice -- for educational and entertainment purposes -- certainly not an inducement

 

singaporegal, ipunter, harryp, ozone2002 ....

thanks for ur kind words and words of encouragement ...

i am still learning ....and the learning never ends ...

wishing u all great fortune too ..

 

The real beauty about fx is that one can place limit/oco/sl orders beforehand and then go and have a good night's sleep.

Then if one's TA art is  sound,  one can wake up in the morning and  update one's profits, if any...

 

Good to see baseerahmed faithfully practising forex.

Unfortunately, my techniques are still unpredictable... still trying to get the hang of it. The main problem I have is the time zone.... markets are active until way past midnight. And I can't stay awake every night to monitor it. 

I frequently find that many of my calls were right, but because i wasn't awake to take profit, I ended up losing money instead of making it. 

 

Looks like you just have to put your trailing stop into gear and wait for the windfall to snowball

(ie. let your profits run)... 

 

 

USD/JPY - Marked Bullishness Cracks Resistance

Marked bullishness on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has broken cleanly above the previously noted 94.50 resistance region, and has gone on to take out further resistance levels well above. This includes a key downtrend resistance line extending from the August 2008 highs. Tentative confirmation of a bullish double-bottom reversal is currently in the making, as price has exceeded the peak between the two extreme lows around 87.00. With any further bullish momentum that takes out the 98.00 level, price could target further resistance in the major 100.00 price region.

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxpath/2009/02/24/usdjpy-marked-bullishness-cracks-resistance/

 

 

 

 

Demo- Trade USDJPY

given the gains made , i have shifted the Stop Loss to 94.64 to lock in a conservative profit of  50pips

caveat emptor -- chart by novice -- for educational and entertainment purposes -- certainly not an inducement !

 

 Demo Trade -- USDJPY




 

caveat emptor -- chart by novice -- for educational and entertainment purposes -- certainly not an inducement !

 

As long as you play forex, you are bound to be whacked (by whipsaws) left and right...

There's no such thing as always riding a trend...

And when you think you are riding a  trend, that's when you are whacked!

Simply because you won't know a trend until after the trend has formed, not before...

Thus trend are best for academic review as 'hindsight insight'... hehehe...

 

So what method do you used without getting whipsawed?

iPunter      ( Date: 23-Feb-2009 21:46) Posted: The PASAR dots are only good to look at after they've happened... ie after the event...  One can easily see the many number of times one can be whipsawed/stopped out by looking t the short dot lines... ...

 

i doubt u get fried if u strict in ur stop loss discipline and not swayed by emotions..

iPunter      ( Date: 22-Feb-2009 00:28) Posted: Hahaha... one can be really rich in forex... provided one has enough risk capital in the first place, such as those given free in demo accounts... But small fries usually get fried till dried... And invincible veterans usually get swallowed up by a black swan... hehehe...   ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Feb-2009 08:59) Posted: harlo..u still demo trading ah?.. time to make big bucks man!..what u waiting for..

 

The PASAR dots are only good to look at after they've happened...
ie after the event... 

One can easily see the many number of times one can be whipsawed/stopped out by looking t the short dot lines... ...  

 

 USDJPY - Demo Trade




caveat emptor -- chart by novice -- for educational and entertainment purposes -- not an inducement

 

 thought just to share this article ............




Forex Robots: Is yours destined for disaster?

Many of you have asked me for a reccomendation for a reliable and profitable inexpensive forex robot system.  With that said, let me say quite candidly that I don't think any robot system selling for $97 is going to work out in the long run.   This doesn't mean that just because someone sells a $97 robot that they are dishonest or it is crap, but, due to its mass appeal certain undesirable side effects occur which are explained below.  (As a side note, I could easily reccommend a few and make thousands of dollars a month in referral fees but…  I just don't like what I am seeing with the crop of $97 robots available.)  The bottom-line is that if I personally reccommend something it has to be because I genuinely feel that you have a long term chance of success.  Anyway…

As already mentioned, I don't have anything against the $97 forex systems but…  The  plain fact is that when  thousands of  traders start usingy the same robot, it can start to under perform or just stop working.  A couple reasons are…

1.  Not everyone will get filled at the order price.  Lets says XYZ Forex System looks for a trade setup and then finds it.  It may fire off a buy limit order at a price 10 pips above the current market price.  Well as the market climbs and hits that price, it will start filling the buy limit orders from other XYZ users.  Now here's where a problem occurs…

Say there are 10,000 traders using the system…  Well the first couple hundred orders may get filled, but this will also cause the market to rapidly rise above the buy limit order level.  This means that many traders may not get into the trade at all as a broker is under no obligation to fill a limit order if the market is moving quickly.

In another scenario…  Lets say XYZ system finds a trade and iniates a buy market order.  The first traders in will get a great entry price and most likely experience a nice and profitable run up but…  Trader #500 may get filled 5 pips higher and trader #5000 may get filled 10 pips higher and trader #10,000 25 pips higher.  As a result traders will have greatly different results.  If the market has say only a 20 pip run up and a quick reversal, it is entirely possible that the first traders in ended up with a small profit and the last traders in ended up with a loss.

One email I just received said, "hey, I would think all those traders jumping in would make the system work even better!".  As I already mentioned the first traders into the trade will benefit from a lot of users using the robot but…. 

Let me explain this in another way.  Awhile ago many parts of the world had a huge run up in the real estate market. 

People who bought the earliest ended up with the highest rise in their equity because as more and more people rushed into the market, it quickly drove up prices higher and higher.  The later someone got in, the less appreciation their property saw.  Eventually someone was the last to buy before the real estate bubble burst.   These unlucky individuals  overpaid for their property and are now sitting on something that has way less value then when they first bought it.   In contrast the people who got into real estate early are still experiencing a nice overall net gain to their investment even if it is not as high as it was just before the bubble burst.  So in this example having lots and lots of people participating really helped some people greatly. The identical things happened in the big stock market crash of 2000.  

And…  It happens in all markets all the time as their are always mini "boom and bust" cycles happening on a daily basis.

 2.  Another problem that too many traders using the same forex robot system is….  When you authorize your broker to run the robot for you, the brokerage knows when your system is placing a trade.  For example…  Say your system is called "The Forex World Domination System".  Well, the name of your system will show up with your broker and the same goes with everyone using ths same system at your broker. 

So….  Say your broker notices that there are 300 pending buy market orders from the "The Forex World Domination System"..  It is the perfect opportunity for them to widen the spread so that they can make another pip or two on each order.  That can literally put thousands more dollars in their pockets on every trade.  

In another scenario…   Say your broker notices that there are 300 stop loss order sitting in the order que.  Well those stop loss orders are like waving a red flag in front of a bull with a very bad temper.  The broker can temporarily run the market against you to trigger the stop loss order and take you out of the market.  Once again, this is easy money for the broker.

The bottom-line is there are just too many people using these robots.  And one thing I forgot to mention is that,  the above obstacles to having a profitable forex robot system is already assuming the robot is actually a really good one.  The ones that are just plain crap compound the chances of disaster even more.

Hope this gives you some food for thought and helps you make a better informed decision when buying or using a forex robot



Jeff Wilde

 

 

Baseer, many thanks for the explanation. Sounds like a good idea to test a high time frame strategy while playing short time frame scalping. :))

baseerahmed      ( Date: 21-Feb-2009 23:39) Posted: respected harryp  many thanks for asking that question ... it gives me an opportuinity to share my thoughts .... No, I have not abandoned my original strategy. In fact, whenever the patterns present themselves, I play them . For this Feb09 demo, I have chalked up a net of  +320 to date using the usual strategy. As IG demo was down for maintaince in the first week of Feb, I played on Interbank demo account . Up till yesterday I had been playing intraday . Never played for longer term . Yesterday , I decided to experiment on playing long term. Hence the post below. To be honest, the intra-day startegy is taking too much of my time monitoring the charts.  I was thinking if I could relief my self from staring at the charts by taking the courage to play long term , say over one week . The long term is just another experiment , I am quite comfortable with the original 20 pips strategy .