Ferrochina   

Ferrochina

Hi elf, thank you for the contribution.

 

the moment when retail buying in, there would be large BB sold off. it seems to me there's more BB selling than buying... at times the large BB buying is to cover short position. correct me if i'm wrong. by the way, what is FA... fundamental analysis?

 

haha. that's the stock market for you. we're ever at the mercy of the BBs.

that's why elfie tries to even up the score by (trying) to help the small fries. just feel it isn't fair. plus, it's simply knowledge. so arm yourself with TA and/or FA. it's the best tool for survival.

no prob. just remember that i'm not responsible for your losses or gains. heehee.

cheers!

 

at one moment the stock went up like nobody business and the next dip as if there's no tomorrow... haha... welcome to the real world. thanks again elf.

 

tech updates for today (short term), on busd and market depth:

sellers outweigh buyers, about 3: 2.

large lots selling, but also have some large lots buying: these appear to be random, ie, retailers. too many small retailers going in; but it's not time to buy yet.

1.33 is the immediate support; thereaft, about 1.3. The next support is 1.18.

immediate resistance at 1.35, then again at 1.4.

would expect today to close about 1.3.

take care.

 

Thanks much Elf. I will be careful.

 

by technicals:

below 1.37, cut.

support at 1.2, then again at 1.04.

take care: need to watch the dow and SCI. ferrochina is an S stock. if shanghai tanks, managers will be tempted to sell asia.

rebound not likely yet: williams only at -40 (ie, still overbought levels). the good thing tho is that the intraday range of FC is quite large: abt 10c.

if you're not fully in, the other strategy (apart from cutting) is to stomach the fall, and buy in when it's oversold, so you square up. do take note that the mid term uptrend (from start of feb) appears to be coming to an end though.

caveat emptor applies to all the above ah..... i'm not always right, nor do i profess to be so.

 

Oops! vested this week and still having it. Any chance of rebounce in short term to offload. Thanks.

 

hm. additional info:

yes, chaikin/a/d can sometimes allow you to see if selling/buying is going on, while the price range is still constant. that's what we call a breakout (be it up or down) signal.

(chaikin abbreviated as c/o, btw).

so for eg of breakout upwards:

see UIC charts (on SJ....yoohoo, keejang!! free SJ advert! )

22nd jan, williams hit -100 oversold. chaikin still dipping though. So not a buy signal, but cue to watch.

3 days of constant increasing chaikin til 30th jan, williams also increasing, but px is more or less constant (2.68 to 2.71). So strike px ~2.7. stop loss would be 2.65.

wouldn't sell even now. breaking upper bollinger. --the one day dip did not touch stop loss. (alt if you were nervy/fast, would have sold out on 19th/20th feb at 2.8 above, enter again at ~2.7, continue holding now.)

(not vested tho. hypothetical eg. heehee.)

cheers!

 

hey...

you can get chaikin on SJ charts.

chaikin is a lead indicator: ie, it moves before the stock price moves (presumably). accumulation/distribution (abbr: a/d, the other lead indicator) measures buying/selling pressure, chaikin does the same thing, but it leads a/d.

the other buy/sell indicators are RSI and Williams.

because ours is a volatile market/trending market, i prefer to use chaikin and Williams during this period, as opposed to A/D and RSI.  

I don't use bloomberg; i only use SJ charts and iocbc.

So set up on SJ for FC (short term trading):

barchart for first chart. chaikin for second. williams for third.

if you draw a trend line, then the resistance for FC is 1.7. ie, if FC can break it, it'd be uptrend sustained. Meanwhile, the support is 1.45, since that was the start of the gap up.

However, if you look at the recent narrow range since the gap up, it's been hovering between lowest of 1.44 (today) to highest 1.66.

ie, did not manage to clear the previous high.

cue to sell comes from chaikin and williams.

1) Price range from 19th to 25th held constant, however, williams was 0 overbought already: when a stock is overbought, it is likely to go down. However, in some cases, stocks may actually still go higher.

2) The proof confirmative comes from chaikin: sharp dip as i pointed out earlier. Way too strong, and on increasing sell vol.

A break below 1.45 is the signal to run. i stopped loss earlier though, by watching the busd. 

be careful of break below 1.37.

An easier way: when a counter runs up 60% of its value in a week, it'd likely head back down for a while.

 

Hi elf,

just checking, whats this chaikin function? Does it allows u to see if the stock is being sold down while price constant or ...

where can i get this function if I use boomberg

 

...because once JPM issues buy, it means the BB have sold. haha.

seriously though, i vested earlier this week in this counter, because a breakout looked likely. stopped loss at 1.52 because the selling looked fishy.

see chaikin: steep drop since 20th feb. From +16mil to -600k. i.e, while price held constant, they were selling. Masked selling by doing one/small lot buy ups, in between distributing large lots.

besides, remember that just beginning of feb, this counter was only 1.02 lowest. to high of 1.66 on 20th feb, that's about 60% returns already. more than enough for a BB to sell.

SCI not doing too well either. Would suggest avoid china stocks for this period of time.

just my opinion...

 

Why is there such a big drop today?

 

BUSINESS TIMES today (Feb 19) reported that JP Morgan has just recommended to its clients to ?overweight? FerroChina and Hong Leong Asia after a review of S-chips.

JP Morgan singled out the two stocks for their attractive valuations.

FerroChina has grown large via an ambitious expansion plan to capitalize on booming demand for galvanized steel in China and globally.

By the end of 2007, FerroChina had grown its production capacity of galvanized steel to 2.4 million tonnes - up from 900,000 tonnes in 2006 and 300,000 tonnes during its IPO in May ?05.

JP Morgan has a price target of $3.30 on the stock, a shade lower than DBS Vickers? $3.38. The stock closed at $1.37 yesterday (Feb 18). 

 

Delong surged >100% from its bottom, approaching all-time high of $4.02. If takeover for FerroChina materialises, it could also gain >100%.

FerroChina surged as investors bet company might enjoy re-rating after bid for Delong highlights value.

"A potential bid for steel-maker Delong at over 11x FY08 earnings suggests that FerroChina, currently trading at 5.3x FY08 PER, is significantly undervalued," says DBS Vickers in note.

Adds Ferrochina could be, "another potential takeover target for larger steel companies." Reiterates Buy call on FerroChina with $3.38 target price. Share price rise supported by high volume with 18.8 million shares traded vs 50-day average of 5.9 million. Suggests buying interest has strong momentum; order book indicates cap at $1.60-1.62.

 

Already sold. Next time consult u singporegal first, ok? ty

 

TA charts are quite bullish. Acc/Dist and Chaikin heading northwards strongly. Price has also cut upper bollinger band and supported by large volumes.

 

I don't trust the report. Cash out at $1.50 today. Closed at $1.58 at end of the day!

 

Tgt price is definitely achievable. Might come close to it or even exceed. But of cos, it takes time. Just like Cosco. Must have valid reasons for the reports to show the target price. Otherwise, they might as well dun report at all.

 

 

Agreed, but sometime must be realistic of all those report, I have doubt on Vicker's report ???? Good Luck.