Home
Login Register
GLD USD    Last:305.68    +2.88

Gold & metals

 Post Reply 101-120 of 4402
 
bsiong
    25-Oct-2013 08:42  
Contact    Quote!

Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report  - 10/24/2013



 

SOFT DOLLAR, QE SPECULATION LIFT PRECIOUS METALS

Gold is trading higher today as weakness in the U.S. dollar helped lift Precious Metals prices.  '' still weak U.S. dollar ? the U.S. currency has weakened against the euro to exceed the $1.38 mark for the first time in almost two years  -- is one major reason why the Gold price has been able to gain to around $1,340 per troy ounce this morning,? analysts at Commerzbank AG said. The perpetuation of quantitative easing measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve is also helping boost the Gold price as the recent government shutdown and disappointing employment numbers lend credence to Fed officials wanting to delay a possible stimulus taper. ''The stimulus story is lending support to Gold,'' Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading, said. ''Worries about the health of the U.S. economy are pushing some to Gold.''

U.S. stocks wavered on Thursday following the first drop in the S& P 500 in six sessions on Wednesday. Investors and traders are still assessing incoming corporate earnings reports and manufacturing growth to determine the status of the U.S. economy. ''We want to look at the quality of these earnings as far as looking at revenues and making sure there is actual growth and not just manufactured growth,'' David James, director of research at James Investment Research Inc., said.

At 1 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,352.40, Up $16.40.
  • Silver, $22.87, Up $0.21.
 
 
bsiong
    24-Oct-2013 22:11  
Contact    Quote!


MORNING MARKET REPORT 

 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS DISAPPOINT RELIEF OVER CHINESE DATA

Gold and Silver prices added to gains after the release of the weekly jobless claims report.  The report showed that new claims  fell by 12,000 last week, though it was far from expectations of 25,000.  Economic data continues to be scrutinized closely due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's insistence that the data improves  before tapering of its quantitative easing program is announced.  Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said, ''Postponement of tapering means higher liquidity in the market, probably higher inflation risks in the longer term.  That's likely to lead to higher interest in Gold.''

U.S. stock futures held onto gains after the data release,  largely due to positive economic news out of China.  After HSBC released its September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China, many were concerned over the state of the economy with a reading of 50.2.  With readings at or below 50 signaling a contracting economy, the October report was due to be heavily scrutinized.  October's reading came in at 50.9, which was all the good news the stock market needed to push higher.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,342.00, Up $6.00.
  • Silver, $22.75, Up $0.09.

 
 
bsiong
    24-Oct-2013 08:47  
Contact    Quote!


 

PROFIT TAKING PUSHES GOLD DOWN WHEN WILL QUANTITATIVE EASING BE TAPERED?

Gold slightly fell today after yesterday?s 2 percent jump from a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report. Today's drop in price comes from investors taking profits, which has been occurring more frequently after the market sees a rise in the Gold price. ''As soon as we see data that suggests that things aren't traveling well, it immediately puts investors? thoughts back to quantitative easing,? David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said. ''he market is probably fairly comfortable with the fact that there?s not going to be a tapering of QE for the foreseeable future.? A Bloomberg survey of 40 economists conducted on October 17-18 revealed a prediction that the Fed will begin tapering quantitative easing in March 2014. The next Federal Reserve meetings are scheduled for October 29-30 and December 17-18, either of which could result in a tapering announcement or hint.

In September, the Fed announced their decision not to cut back its infamous $85 billion monthly bond buying program due to the current U.S. economic condition. ''If you look at where we are economically, versus where we were a year ago, we?re virtually in the exact same place,'' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn said. ''So if quantitative easing made sense a year ago, it probably still makes sense today.'' The question many investors have is when the Fed will decide to taper fiscal policy as it will have to eventually happen with a growing balance sheet. ''They?re in a position where they know they can?t quantitatively ease forever, they know they?re building a bigger and bigger balance sheet, but their No. 1 objective is to try and grow the U.S. economy,'' Cohn said. ''I do believe eventually they will taper. Eventually can be a very long time.''

At 5:15 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,334.80, Down $9.80.
  • Silver, $22.59, Down $0.24.
 

 
bsiong
    24-Oct-2013 08:43  
Contact    Quote!

Gold Multi-Day Corrective Drop Possibly Underway

Hourly

  eliottWaves_gold_1_body_gold.png, Gold Multi-Day Corrective Drop Possibly Underway

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

  -Gold?s rally has extended into an impulse (5 waves). The most aggressive count is NOT shown above but would place 5 waves complete at the 10/18 high and a larger 3rd or C wave underway from the 10/22 low. One reason to suspect that the above count is correct is that wave 5 is just about equal to the price width of wave 4 (measured move).

 

-A corrective setback is expected but with questions regarding the count from the October low, the expected depth of any weakness is unknown.

 

Trading Strategy: Allow for at least several days to a week of sideways/down action and maybe from slightly higher prices (low 1350s?) before looking for a low.

 

LEVELS: 1310 1318 1327 | 1352 1364 1375

 
 
bsiong
    24-Oct-2013 08:41  
Contact    Quote!


 

PROFIT-TAKING ENTERS MARKET AFTER RALLY

Precious Metals prices are trading lower this morning as the U.S. dollar steadies. After Gold?s rally yesterday, Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said, ?We may see some short-positioning coming in, and we might also see some profit-taking based on the moves of the last few days. This $1,330 level is an important technical point, and so far Gold has managed to hold onto it. A lot of investors are just waiting to see what the next move will be.? Commerzbank analysts upgraded their medium-term view for Gold from bearish to neutral.

U.S. stock futures are trading lower, and Interactive Investor?s Rebecca O?Keeffe said, ?The jubilation that greeted the poor nonfarm payrolls number [which led to an assumption that quantitative easing tapering will not occur soon] does need to be tempered with the reality that the U.S. economy appears to be slowing, and with the impact of the shutdown still to be felt and the debt ceiling set to be revisited early in the new year, there are potential road blocks ahead.?

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,336.50, Down $8.10.
  • Silver, $22.75, Down $0.09.
 
 
Octavia
    23-Oct-2013 14:21  
Contact    Quote!

Eric Sprott's Open Letter To The World Gold Council



As you very well know, the business environment for gold producers has been extremely challenging over the past few years. While demand for physical gold remains extremely strong, prices on the COMEX have fallen precipitously. This contradictory situation is the single most important obstacle to a healthy gold mining industry.

In my opinion, the massive imbalance between supply and demand is not reflected in prices because available statistics are misleading. It is not the first time that GFMS (and World Gold Council) statistics come under pressure from the investment community. In his now celebrated ?The 1998 Gold Book Annual?, Frank Veneroso demonstrated the inconsistencies in GFMS gold demand data and proceeded to show how they grossly underestimated demand. The tremendous increase in the price of gold over the following years vindicated his conclusions.

For very different reasons, we are now at a similar pivotal point for gold. Over the past few years, we have seen incredible incremental demand from emerging markets. Indeed, so much so that the People?s Bank of China has announced that it is planning to increase the number of firms allowed to import and export gold and ease restrictions on individual buyers.1 In India, the government has been fighting a losing battle against gold imports by imposing import taxes and restrictions.2 Moreover, Non-Western Central Banks from around the world are replacing their U.S. dollar reserves by increasing their holdings of gold.3

But, demand statistics reported by the World Gold Council (WGC) consistently misrepresent reality, mostly with regard to demand from Asia.

To illustrate my point, Table 1 below contrasts mine production with demand from some of the world?s largest gold consumers. According to WGC/GFMS data, the world will mine, on an annualized basis, about 2,800 tonnes of gold for 2013.

But, I adjusted these figures to reflect mine production from China and Russia, which never leaves the country and is used solely to satisfy domestic demand. After adjustments, we have a total world mine supply of about 2,140 tonnes. On the demand side, I make some in-house adjustments to better represent demand from emerging markets. To proxy for gold consumption in China, Hong Kong, India, Thailand and Turkey, I use net imports of gold, as reported by their various governmental agencies. While imports might in general be an imperfect proxy for demand, those countries see very little re-export of what they import and keep most of it for themselves, so it is not unreasonable to assume that what they import they ?consume?, on top of their domestic production. To this I add the demand, as estimated by the GFMS, from other countries and that of central banks. I annualized the year-to-date figures and found that for this year, annualized total demand is approximately 5,200 tonnes. On that basis, ?core? annualized demand is approximately 3,000 tonnes more than mine supply.

TABLE 1: WORLD GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2013, IN TONNES
open-letter-table1.gif

Sources: GFMS data comes from the WGC?s ?Gold Demand Trends? publications for 2013 Q1 & Q2. Chinese mine supply comes from the China Gold Association and is up to August 2013, the annualized number is a Sprott estimate.5 Russian mine supply comes from the WBMS (Bloomberg ticker WBMGOPRU Index) and is for 2012, 2013 statistics are still unavailable. Chinese data is taken from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department and covers the period Jan.-Aug. 2013 and is annualized to account for the 4 missing months to the year. Changes in Central Bank gold reserves are taken from the IMF?s International Financial Statistics, as published on the World Gold Council?s website for 2013 Q1 & Q2 and include all international organizations as well as all central banks. Net imports for Thailand, Turkey and India come from the UN Comtrade database and include gold coins, scrap, powder, jewellery and other items made of gold. The data is for 2013 Q1 & Q2. ETFs data comes from Bloomberg?s ETFGTOTL Index.

However, these figures also exclude what the GFMS dubs ?OTC investment and stock flows?, which is a name for a simple plug because no one really knows what is traded in the OTC market. Also, to remain conservative and avoid possible double counting, I exclude the category ?technology? from my demand estimate, which the WGC/GFMS estimates to be about 400 tonnes a year.6 Certainly, some of this demand is captured by the demand numbers for China, Turkey, India or Thailand, but it is near impossible to disentangle them. Nonetheless, it should be kept in mind that my demand estimate is conservative and probably understated by a few hundred tonnes.

Of course, another important source of supply is gold recycling, which the GFMS estimates at about 1,300 tonnes for the year. However, this number is questionable at best as gold recycling is hard to estimate. But, most importantly, a large share of it is probably done in India and China, which as mentioned before do not re-export their gold. In the context of my analysis, recycling from those countries should therefore be excluded from the total supply number.

The real incremental source of supply this year has been the flows out of ETFs. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, and as shown at the bottom of Table 1, ETFs have seen outflows of approximately 724 tonnes year-to-date. On an annualized basis, this represents an additional supply of 917 tonnes. But, this incremental supply is only temporary. As shown in Figure 1 below, ETF holdings of gold seem to have stabilized at around 1,900 tonnes after a rapid decline in the first few months of 2013.

The evidence presented here is clear, demand for physical gold is extremely strong and, in reality, without the massive outflows from ETFs (half of world mine supply), it is hard to imagine how this demand would have been met. Since ETFs have a finite size (about 1,900 tonnes left), these outflows cannot continue for much longer (see our article on the topic).7 All these observations point to a considerable imbalance between supply and demand (unless Western Central Banks decide to fill this void with what is left of their reserves). If recycling was reduced by one half (China, India and Russia) and the temporary sales from ETFs were excluded, demand could be as high as 5,185 tonnes versus supply of 2,140 tonnes. The supply-demand imbalance is obvious to all.

FIGURE 1:TONNES OF GOLD IN ETFS
open-letter-chart1.gif
Source: Bloomberg

As was the case when Frank Veneroso first published his book in 1998, the GFMS methodology understates demand and the World Gold Council, by using data from the GFMS, misleads the market place.

To conclude, I urge the leaders of the World Gold Council, for the benefit of their own members, to improve the quality of their data and find alternative sources than the GFMS, which paints a misleading picture of the real demand for gold. This lack of quality information has certainly been one of the driving factors behind the lack of investors? confidence towards gold as an investment. Gold has been one of the best performing asset classes since 2000, and the World Gold Council should be promoting it accordingly.

Regards,
eric-sig.png

Eric Sprott

 

 
bsiong
    23-Oct-2013 08:55  
Contact    Quote!

Gold Rally is Impulsive Corrective Weakness Expected

Hourly

  eliottWaves_gold_1_body_gold.png, Gold Rally is Impulsive  Corrective Weakness Expected

 

-Gold?s rally has extended into an impulse (5 waves). The most aggressive count is NOT shown above but would place 5 waves complete at the 10/18 high and a larger 3rd or C wave underway from the 10/22 low.

 

-A corrective setback is expected but with questions regarding the count from the October low, the expected depth of any weakness is unknown.

 

Trading Strategy: Allow for at least several days to a week of sideways/down action and maybe from slightly higher prices (low 1350s?) before looking for a low.

 

LEVELS: 1310 1318 1327 | 1352 1364 1375

 
 
bsiong
    23-Oct-2013 08:54  
Contact    Quote!


 

GOLD, STOCKS LIFTED ON CONTINUED QE PREDICTIONS

The recent government shutdown and weak jobs numbers pushed Gold higher today as investors and economists predict ongoing federal stimulus measures to continue for the foreseeable future. ''The payrolls data is pushing Gold higher as investors think the economy needs more support to gain momentum,'' Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC, said. Today?s price boost has lifted the Gold price to its highest level in three weeks. With the government closure lingering as a constant reminder of the often inefficient operation among officials in Washington and employment figures coming in weaker-than-expected, it appears unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be impelled to begin tapering their Gold-friendly monetary easing program until early to mid-2014.

The forecast for the continuation of quantitative easing measures has lifted stocks today as the S& P 500 inches closer to its largest annual gain since 2003. Poor jobs numbers ''indicates the Fed is joining us for the holiday season at the current level of quantitative easing,'' Darrell Cronk, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank, said. ''And it will probably be ringing in the New Year with us as well as it continues QE through the end of 2013. Right now the data is not suggesting any kind of tapering.'' The monthly asset purchase program that has been so accommodative for Precious Metals in the past has also been a central motivator for this year's equities rally. With labor markets struggling to meet expectations and the awareness of U.S. bureaucratic gridlock, many analysts now predict uninterrupted monetary stimulus through at least March of next year.

At 1:34 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,342.20, Up $24.40.
  • Silver, $22.74, Up $0.43.
 
 
bsiong
    22-Oct-2013 21:41  
Contact    Quote!


MORNING MARKET REPORT

 

DELAYED JOBS REPORT BOOSTS GOLD, SILVER PRICES

The U.S. Labor Department's jobs report, originally due October 4, was released this morning. Economists expected an increase of 185,000 jobs in September, and  the report showed a gain of 148,000, well less than expected. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.2 percent, which boosted stock futures in premarket trading, but the overall report was enough to send Gold and Silver prices up more than one percent higher.

Lately, the Gold price seems to be directly tied to the possibility of quantitative easing tapering. U.S. Federal Reserve officials have said recently that stronger economic data is needed before tapering will be announced, so the disappointing jobs report affecting the Gold price in this way was no surprise. While noting that the possible government shutdown  could have affected hiring in September, Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said, ''On the other hand, employment is the key variable for the Fed tapering. In terms of Gold market reaction, as long as they haven't done it, there is always that suspicion that they can't do because the economy is not that strong, which could support prices.''

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,330.00, Up $12.10.
  • Silver, $22.47, Up $0.15.
 
 
Octavia
    22-Oct-2013 11:52  
Contact    Quote!

China and Gold

China is now overtly pushing for the US dollar to be replaced as the world?s reserve currency.



Xinhua, China?s official press agency on Sunday ran an op-ed article which kicked off as follows:


?As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world.?


China does have a broad strategy to prepare for this event. She is encouraging the creation of an international market in her own currency through the twin centres of Hong Kong and London, side-lining New York, and she is actively promoting through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) non-dollar trade settlement across the whole of Asia. She has also been covertly building her gold reserves while overtly encouraging her citizens to accumulate gold as well.

There can be little doubt from these actions that China is preparing herself for the demise of the dollar, at least as the world?s reserve currency. Central to insuring herself and her citizens against this outcome is gold. China has invested heavily in domestic mine production and is now the largest producer at an estimated 440 tonnes annually, and she is also looking to buy up gold mines elsewhere. Little or none of the domestically mined gold is seen in the market, so it is a reasonable assumption the Government is quietly accumulating all her own production without it becoming publicly available.

Recorded demand for gold from China?s private sector has escalated to the point where their demand now accounts for significantly more than the rest of the world?s mine production. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the mainland monopoly for physical delivery, and Hong Kong acts as a separate interacting hub. Between them in the first eight months of 2013 they have delivered 1,730 tonnes into private hands, or an annualised rate of 2,600 tonnes.

The world ex-China mines an estimated 2,260 tonnes, leaving a supply deficit for not only the rest of gold-hungry South-east Asia and India, but the rest of the world as well. It is this fact that gives meat to the suspicion that Western central bank monetary gold is being supplied keep the price down, because ETF sales and diminishing supplies of non-Asian scrap have been wholly insufficient to satisfy this surge in demand.

So why is the Chinese Government so keen on gold? The answer most likely involves geo-politics. And here it is worth noting that through the SCO, China and Russia with the support of most of the countries in between them are building an economic bloc with a common feature: gold. It is noticeable that while the West?s financial system has been bad-mouthing gold, all the members of the SCO, including most of its prospective members, have been accumulating it. The result is a strong vein of gold throughout Asia while the West has left itself dangerously exposed.

The West selling its stocks of gold has become the biggest strategic gamble in financial history. We are committing ourselves entirely to fiat currencies, which our central banks are now having to issue in accelerating quantities. In the process China and Russia have been handed ultimate economic power on a plate.
 

 
bsiong
    22-Oct-2013 08:42  
Contact    Quote!

Gold Top Side of Broken Trendline is Now Support

Daily

  eliottWaves_gold_1_body_gold.png, Gold Top Side of Broken Trendline is Now Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

 

-Gold followed through on last Tuesday?s large range key reversal.

 

-Gold also broke through the trendline that originates at the August high. The line connects the 8/28 and 9/19 highs and crosses through 9/30 and 10/8. The top side of this line now becomes support.

 

Trading Strategy: Will be looking to go long on setbacks below 1300, specifically the low 1280s.

 

LEVELS: 1282 1290 1304 | 1330 1338 1352

 
 
bsiong
    22-Oct-2013 08:40  
Contact    Quote!


 

GOLD AWAITS FED?S NEXT MOVE HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY LOSING GROUND

Gold remained flat on Monday as investors are still unsure of the Federal Reserve?s next move regarding fiscal policy. The yellow metal jumped nearly four percent last week with assumptions that the Fed will not taper its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program especially after the recent government shutdown, which has hurt economic growth expectations. ''At some point the Fed will have to start tapering, there is also a consensus view that over three, four, five years bond yields will most likely be higher, and right now inflation rates are very low and show no sign of picking up,'' Credit Suisse analyst Tobias Merath said. ''These are the factors you will look at, if you ask yourself whether there is a need to buy Gold right now.'' The Fed has already announced they will not cut back monetary policy unless the job and housing market show improvement both have been fragile since 2008.

The housing market is showing some weaker than expected data as the National Association of Realtors reported today that U.S. home resale's fell 1.9 percent for the month of September. The drop is thought to be caused by higher mortgage rates along with consumers in the market place whose salaries are barely rising. Investors believe recent higher borrowing costs are slowing the housing market recovery.

At 5:15 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,317.70, Up $1.10.
  • Silver, $22.27, Up $0.32.
 
 
bsiong
    21-Oct-2013 21:44  
Contact    Quote!

 

MARKETS STEADY AHEAD OF EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, COPRORATE EARNINGS

U.S. stock futures are trading flat to start the week as  investors weigh corporate earnings data and await economic reports that were delayed by the recent government shutdown. In recent months, the most highly anticipated U.S. economic reports have been those revealing the state of domestic employment. ''The U.S. nonfarm-payroll data will kick start the economic engine tomorrow, and if there was no government shutdown, this economic data could have been the key factor in determining the tapering quiz for the Federal Reserve?s chairman, Ben Bernanke,'' Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, said. Following the recent government closure, some analysts predict the non-farm payroll numbers to be slightly skewed. The sense that employment data could be unreliable makes corporate earnings figures the central focus of investors and traders looking to gain a sense of the market?s short term direction.

Gold is trading even on Monday morning as last week?s four percent price rally appears to have cooled slightly.  Short-term momentum was gained on expectations that the U.S. government shutdown damaged U.S. growth  and would give the Federal Reserve no choice but to continue its quantitative easing program. Precious Metals investors will await this week?s economic reports and corporate earnings numbers to gain perspective on the trajectory of Gold and Silver prices.

At 9:28 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,319.70, Up $3.10.
  • Silver, $22.35, Up $0.40.
 
 
bsiong
    20-Oct-2013 11:50  
Contact    Quote!

You've been PUNKĀ?D - What are you gonna do about it?


October 18, 2013 - 15:16:16 PDT

 

You've Been PUNK?D - What Are You Gonna Do About It?



 

At the subversive & deceptive hands of those issuing the world reserve currency aka fiat ?dollar,? everyone across t... Read More

 
 
bsiong
    20-Oct-2013 11:47  
Contact    Quote!


 

 

WEEKEND DIGEST

 

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Charting the Big Picture

Arguably, throughout the ages, money and the immense power it manifests, is the most potent driver of systemic corruption.

Further to such argument, it is self-evident that high-level branches of modern-day governments and their attendant institutions alongside private foundations and transnational corporate alliances have been wholly subject to such corruption for centuries. 


Despite the proven ability of powerful institutions such as the Federal Reserve to dramatically manipulate and distort nearly every facet of the financial sphere, in the first of a possible series of ?Witness? publications, we shall nonetheless endeavor to chart the progress of the developing world order using graphic chart illustrations. 
 

 
bsiong
    19-Oct-2013 13:27  
Contact    Quote!
October 18, 2013 - 15:26:58 PDT

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Big Moves In and Out of Comex Bullion Warehouses



JPM came to the rescue with a whopping deposit of 192,900 ounce of gold bullion into eligible storage. I wonder where t... read more
 
 
bsiong
    19-Oct-2013 13:19  
Contact    Quote!


 

GOLD BOUNCES DURING MONDAY TRADING

The week began with an unstable U.S. economy as the government headed into its second week of being partially shut down. Gold received a sharp increase during Monday trading as U.S. political leaders failed to reach a deal on the government shutdown and debt ceiling issue. The divide between Senate Democrats and Republicans widened, with Democrats unwilling to agree to any deal that continued the automatic spending cuts known as sequestration. CMC Markets UK senior sales trader Toby Morris said, ''Even with 'constructive discussions' on Sunday, no details have really been given about what that entails, leaving markets as confused as ever about what we are waiting for.''  Silver, Platinum and Palladium prices were up for the day as well.

WEAK OUTLOOK FOR U.S. DOLLAR

Economic strategists cut U.S. dollar forecasts for the third month in a row in response to the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis. Westpac Banking Corp and Credit Suisse Group AG, among other firms, reduced estimates by an average of 1.2 percent as compared to currencies such as the euro, pound and yen. According to Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments Ltd., faith in the dollar has been eroded by repeated episodes of U.S. government dysfunction. ''Lasting damage is being caused to the view that the U.S. currency is the reserve currency. It encourages people not to hold so much in dollars and to hold slightly more in other currencies,'' Milligan said. Historically, the value of Gold and other Precious Metals show a negative correlation to the value of the dollar.

METALS FLAT WITH NO GOVERNMENT DEAL ON TABLE

Precious Metals prices were flat Tuesday with no real deal in the works to reopen the U.S. government.  As U.S. leaders worked on both a debt ceiling deal and the government shutdown, tapering of quantitative easing (QE) remained in the back of many investors' minds. When asked his thoughts on the government avoiding a debt default, Eric Green of TD Securities said a good outcome could ''push the normalization of [monetary] policy further in to the future'' and raise the ''possibility that tapering turns more aggressive when it does start.'' This could raise the potential for volatility in the market, which, as Green went on to say, ?may handicap the [Federal Reserve's] capacity to organize a withdrawal from QE within a market fixated on the flow effects of Fed purchases.''

GOLD RECEIVES BOOST FROM WEAKENED U.S. DOLLAR 

Gold received some much needed support Wednesday as bipartisan leaders of the U.S. Senate agreed to a solution to resolve the fiscal impasse and raise the U.S. borrowing limit. The Senate and House were to vote later in the day, with President Barack Obama reportedly supporting the agreement. ''The compromise we reached will provide our economy with the stability it desperately needs,'' Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said. Since the government shut down, Gold had dropped about 4 percent by Wednesday due to large sells, which were intensified by technical selling.

U.S. DOLLAR DECLINES FROM LAST MINUTE GOVERNMENT DEAL

Once an official deal was announced as in the works to end the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. dollar automatically fell 0.2 percent against foreign currencies, which boosted Gold. ''The dollar?s weakness is helping Gold,'' Citigroup Inc. futures specialist Sterling Smith said in a telephone interview. ''Also, higher metal and energy prices are helping.'' Senate leaders were able to reach an agreement the day before the U.S. would officially default on its debt. The last minute deal may be to blame for a lower U.S. dollar, as most investors believe the damage already had been done to the economy.

U.S. DOLLAR DOWNGRADED BY CHINESE RATING AGENCY

It was reported Thursday morning that Chinese rating agency Dagong downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt rating, saying that the U.S. ''government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future.'' This caused the U.S. dollar and stock futures to fall. The weekly jobless claims report was released Thursday and showed claims dropped by 15,000, which was lower than the predicted drop of 18,000. The report?s release caused the dollar and stock futures to fall further and Precious Metals prices to rise further.

GOLD RISES ON PROMISE OF MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING

The Gold price rose significantly Thursday as policymakers in Washington approved a debt ceiling arrangement that ended the U.S. government shutdown. The last-minute deal raised the debt ceiling and allowed the government to avoid technical default on debt obligations. ''In a nutshell, we are back to business as normal where the U.S. government spends way too much money which we have to borrow on the global market,'' H.C. Wainwright LLC managing director Jeffrey Wright said. ''We have no realistic way to pay it back and even with a 'shrinking' rate of deficits, the situation is not sustainable.'' With the promise of continued borrowing from global financiers, the highly anticipated reduction of QE measures will inevitably be postponed. ''Gold is the natural vehicle to counterbalance this behavior and is going higher once again,'' Wright added. Though many catalysts for the movement of Gold have been bearish in recent months, delaying a decrease in monetary easing and the chaotic dealings among officials in Washington could lend support to Precious Metals prices.

GOLD RISES ON DIMINISHED TAPERING CONCERNS

On Friday, Gold headed toward its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, settling just below $1,320 an ounce due to investor expectation that Fed tapering will be postponed once again. ''We're now focusing on two things: the next time we'll have a debate on the [debt ceiling] issue, which is February, and tapering,'' Citi analyst David Wilson said. ''The debate has moved on from if to when [tapering will happen], so that will be continually factored into the Gold price.'' Gold has fallen 20 percent this year on the expectation of the Federal Reserve tapering their monthly bond buying program.

At 5:15 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,318.50, Down $6.50.
  • Silver, $21.99, Up $0.00.
 
 
bsiong
    19-Oct-2013 13:09  
Contact    Quote!
 
October 18, 2013 - 14:38:12 PDT

4 Things To Ponder This Weekend - Lance Roberts



Next week will be a rash of economic data that was pent up by the government shutdown from employment to inflation data.... read more
 
 
bsiong
    19-Oct-2013 13:08  
Contact    Quote!


 

GLOBAL MARKETS REACT TO U.S. DEBT AGREEMENT

Precious Metals are slightly lower through mid-day trading.  However, even with today's slight pullback, Gold is on track for a weekly gain of almost four percent.  Michael Smith, president of T& K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida, stated, ''People want to be in equities as the most lucrative investment.  Also, there is some profit-taking after [Gold?s] big rally.''  With expectations of continued Federal Reserve quantitative easing, and no taper in sight,  investors are beginning to become bullish on Gold.

Global equity markets responded Friday to the last-minute budget deal stuck by U.S. lawmakers. The U.S. dollar has reached an eight-month low while global markets reacted with a five-year high. Commonwealth Foreign Exchange chief market analyst Omer Esiner said, ''The real economy has been negatively impacted by the government shutdown and uncertainty of the debt crisis, all of which pushes out eventual Fed policy normalization which is bad for the dollar.'' This may be big news for Gold, which has historically had a inverse correlation with the dollar.

At 2:01 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals prices were:
  • Gold, $1,315.80, Down $9.20.
  • Silver, $21.93, Down $0.06.
 
 
bsiong
    19-Oct-2013 13:04  
Contact    Quote!


 

EXPECTED TAPERING DELAY BULLISH FOR GOLD SILVER COULD HIT RECORD HIGHS

Expectations that the U.S. government shutdown will delay the Federal Reserve?s plans for tapering quantitative easing have the Gold price on pace for its biggest weekly gain in two months. Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler explained, ?Once the government re-opened and the agenda moved on from the debt crisis to next week's Federal Reserve meeting, that was a trigger for Gold to see some upside.? On the day, Gold and Silver prices are down slightly. Platinum and Palladium prices are slightly higher, with Platinum taking its largest premium over Gold in a month.

CPM Group?s Silver Long-Term Outlook report was released Thursday and showed the Silver price could hit record highs in the next 10 years. The report said that in the long term, the Silver price would be ?continuing a secular bull trend that began at the turn of the century.? In the next decade, the report said, ?Investors are expected to step up their purchases, backed by expectations for strong capital appreciation amid rising industrial demand for the metal.?

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals prices were:
  • Gold, $1,321.00, Down $4.00.
  • Silver, $22.04, Up $0.07.
 
Important: Please read our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy .