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2Q13 results reflect industry woes. Revenue dropped 11% yoy to Rp 3.36t, as higher sales volume of CPO was more than offset by lower ASP of key plantation crops (palm oil, rubber, sugar) and lower edible oils sales. Net profit plunged 74% to Rp 65.9b, hurt by gross margin compression to 16.1% from 28.9%, due to the adverse effect of lower ASPs, and further impact from higher pdtn cost arising from rising wages and newly matured plantations. Mgt tone on outlook is soft, noting the slowing down of economic growth particularly in China and Europe, slower biodiesel demand in Europe and expectations of stronger palm oil supplies in 2H13 and larger soybean harvests from the US have put significant pressure on commodity prices. IndoAgri trades at 27.7x annualized 1H13 P/E, 0.67x P/B.
accumulated .905 - 93
cheers :)
why this burger price shoot up ?
CPO price increases following surging oil price rates (The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Wed, July 03 2013, 4:14 PM)
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/07/03/cpo-price-increases-following-surging-oil-price-rates.html
This rising trend in oil seems to be ongoing:-
UPDATE 9-Oil jumps $2 on Egypt, US data, biggest weekly gain in a year (Reuters Published: Friday, 5 Jul 2013 | 3:50 PM ET)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100866965
This chart is sjowing a breakdown below $1
It is killing it softly
70cents first support
50cents very strong support
It is killing it softly
70cents first support
50cents very strong support
FearValueGreed ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 19:32) Posted:
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Palm oil counter has no future, leave it there till become rojak lah. Wahahahahaha
NAV is ~1.25.
Current price is 1.025 - 1.03, a discount of ~18% from NAV.
If breakout of support is genuine, price is set to go lower to around 80 cents, Would rather short this counter than buy.
Moving quietly while CPO is still low.
yes indo
looking good
:)
Suddenly spike up his morning.
watching ...
No hurry. This one is a good proxy play for sugar aswell but wait till below one dollar.
Margin of safety
Margin of safety
Hopefully. CPO price is till low and daily volume also low. And keep on selling down very scary.
marubozu1688 ( Date: 02-Mar-2013 10:45) Posted:
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IndoAgri at the Triangle support now. Wait for rebound signal!
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/indoagri/indoagri-at-triangle-support/
Indofood Agri Resources, Hold S$1.24, Bloomberg: IFAR SP
Fairly valued
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.20 (Prev S$ 1.29)
By: Ben SANTOSO +65 6398 7976
• 4Q12 earnings came in at Rp163 bn (-49% y-o-y -37% q-o-q) – below
our Rp185 bn estimate
• In addition to poor sales volumes, costs were higher, and
provisions were booked an associate also contributed its share of losses
• FY13F-14F earnings cut by 5-7% on net higher cost expectations
• HOLD call maintained, TP revised lower to S$1.20
Poor 4Q12 profitability. The 49% y-o-y drop in IndoAgri’s 4Q12 earnings,
were primarily driven by a 55% y-o-y plunge in plantations EBITDA to Rp348
bn. We understand there were also provisions in smallholders (plasma)
receivables and market value of inventory, although these were partially
offset by better refining margins (at 8%). Final dividend will be declared
during the AGM in Apr13.
Fraught with problems. The group’s plantations sold less volumes during
4Q12 mainly reflecting lower output in South Sumatra due to the dry spell
in Jul-Sep12. Poor roadwork infrastructure had further dampened sales
volume for the quarter. Nevertheless, we understand inventory has declined
since this year on delivery of previously postponed shipments.
Earnings revised. Imputing higher cost of production, and weaker Lonsum
contribution, we have lowered FY13F-14F earnings by 5-7%. The revisions
have lowered our DCF valuation for stock by 7% to S$1.20 (based on WACC
14.4%, ERP 8.2%, Beta 1.3, TG 3%). This excludes any potential upside from
purchase of 50% stake in CMAA in Brazil.
HOLD call maintained. We expect IndoAgri to book 3-year earnings CAGR of
16%, given the low-base effect. While there remains 3% downside, we believe
the share price has already priced in the negatives.
Fairly valued
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.20 (Prev S$ 1.29)
By: Ben SANTOSO +65 6398 7976
• 4Q12 earnings came in at Rp163 bn (-49% y-o-y -37% q-o-q) – below
our Rp185 bn estimate
• In addition to poor sales volumes, costs were higher, and
provisions were booked an associate also contributed its share of losses
• FY13F-14F earnings cut by 5-7% on net higher cost expectations
• HOLD call maintained, TP revised lower to S$1.20
Poor 4Q12 profitability. The 49% y-o-y drop in IndoAgri’s 4Q12 earnings,
were primarily driven by a 55% y-o-y plunge in plantations EBITDA to Rp348
bn. We understand there were also provisions in smallholders (plasma)
receivables and market value of inventory, although these were partially
offset by better refining margins (at 8%). Final dividend will be declared
during the AGM in Apr13.
Fraught with problems. The group’s plantations sold less volumes during
4Q12 mainly reflecting lower output in South Sumatra due to the dry spell
in Jul-Sep12. Poor roadwork infrastructure had further dampened sales
volume for the quarter. Nevertheless, we understand inventory has declined
since this year on delivery of previously postponed shipments.
Earnings revised. Imputing higher cost of production, and weaker Lonsum
contribution, we have lowered FY13F-14F earnings by 5-7%. The revisions
have lowered our DCF valuation for stock by 7% to S$1.20 (based on WACC
14.4%, ERP 8.2%, Beta 1.3, TG 3%). This excludes any potential upside from
purchase of 50% stake in CMAA in Brazil.
HOLD call maintained. We expect IndoAgri to book 3-year earnings CAGR of
16%, given the low-base effect. While there remains 3% downside, we believe
the share price has already priced in the negatives.
Is it good news? Price set to soar?
Indofood Agri Resources on Monday said it was looking to pay $143.4 million real (S$87.1 million) for a post-closing 50 per cent interest in Companhia Mineira de Açúcar e Álcool Participações (CMAA), a Brazilian group that cultivates sugar cane to make ethanol and sugar and generate electricity.
IndoAgri said it has set up a subsidiary in Singapore, IFAR Brazil Pte Ltd, which in turn has incorporated a unit in Brazil called IndoAgri Brazil Participações Ltda.
On Saturday, IndoAgri Brazil and a unit of JF Citrus Agropecuária Ltda (JF Group) entered into definitive agreements with the two sellers, ZAM Ventures LP and Fundo de Investimento em Participações PCP.
The sellers will be exiting CMAA, while JF Group will increase its existing interest as a result of CMAA's capital increase that will take place at closing - expected to occur during the second quarter of 2013, IndoAgri said.
Indo bagus:)
5spice ( Date: 03-Jan-2013 16:55) Posted:
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hey Indo
1.38 => 1.39 => 1.40
go go go