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WHY THE BIG VOLUMES?

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Singapore's SembCorp Marine <SCMN.SI>, the world's second-biggest manufacturer of offshore rigs, has won a $550 million contract to build a semi-submersible drilling rig for Noble Corp. <NE.N>, the firm said on Thursday.

The rig is expected to be deliverd in the fourth quarter of 2009, SembCorp said in a statement

 

share price wont move..?the main reason is too many c wrts.

 

DJ MARKET TALK: SembMarine May Rise; Wins US$442M Rig Deal

2358 GMT [Dow Jones] Sembcorp Marine (S51.SG) may revisit this week's highest intraday peak of S$3.70 after securing US$442 million contract (one of its biggest this year) to build jackup rig meant for use in harsh environment. Rig scheduled for delivery in mid-2010, suitable for use in Norwegian North Sea, can be deployed for drilling, production. Contract awarded by Petroprod, which specializes in developing small, medium oilfields. Deal not expected to boost current year earnings though, but likely to boost hopes for more contract wins. Stock down 0.5% at S$3.58 yesterday. (FKH)

 

B band narrowing, XD on 3rd May, may drop sligthly (div only 2.5c) and then move upward after Xd ?

 

DBSVickers targets $4.50!!! this morning. CHEONG AH!!!

 

This counter seems to move between $3.24 and $3.70. Moving towards upper band of B Band.

 

shplayer...

Actually, TA is somewhat similar to electronics... :)

The 'schematic' is the chart itself, or the the 'circuit'. Only diff is the chart shows the flow of prices rather than electrons. The 'components' are the  price patterns and  connecting  parts.

 

May be on short term uptrend.... Acc/Dist and Chaikin are both uptrending.

 

Sporeguy,

Thanks for the analysis....wow...very cheem...no wonder I never could understand these 'wave' theories.......same as when I was doing electronics....can never understand it.



But, if you don't mind, can you also do an analysis for SembCorp Industries.

Thanks

 

Hi shplayer,

Yahoo only give 3 mths data on SembMar while SJ gives about a yr, so i do not have chart of 5 or 6 yrs data for wave study. Using the 1 yr data from SJ, I reckon that it went from a low of $2.70 to a high of $3.56 (a gain of 86c), then drop to $3.22 (using fibonacci of 0.618x86+2.70=3.23, wah a difference of 1c accuracy mem!). Using fibonacci of 0.618x86c=53c, the next ht may be at least $3.22+53c=$3.75. Using the newer wavelet of ($3.56-$3.22)x1.618+$3.22=$3.77. If it is a ragging bull, it may add in 1.618x86c=$1.39 to give a possible ht of $3.22+$1.39=$4.61. So just let it increases and use gut feeling when it has reached its max ($3.75 to $4.61 ?).

 

Sporeguy,

KE has set a target price of $4.38 (buy @ $3.66). The $4.50 fair value was assigned by DBS - got this of SIAS. I'm taking these figures with a pinch of salt.

 

Sporeguy,

Apprec if you can you go to the 'Sembcorp TA or FA' thread and give us your fabo reading on Sembcorp.

Thanks 

 

Sporeguy,

elf mentioned in another thread that analysts fair value is 4.50.

 

I read somewhere in the newspaper that the target price is $4.38 (not sure of the figure.) Can anyone confirm this ?

 

singaporegal has contribute tremenously in this forum, I learn alot from her contribution. she has no emotion on any counters....and that is great. There are very few of us that can contribute positively here.

I personally like her comment and use it a a good guide as when to enter her counters...adn best of all profit from it 7 out of 10..

SINGAPOREGAL KEEP IT UP, AND GONG XI FA CAI...LOVE TO GIVE U AN ANG POW....

 

SembMarine said its total outstanding order book stood at $7.1 billion as of Feb. 15 this year.



The pace of new contract wins is likely to stay strong as drilling firms are signing an increasing number of term contracts with oil companies at very attractive day rates for rigs that are still under construction.



Day rates -- the price at which offshore rigs are chartered to oil exploration companies -- have soared to as high as US$200,000 for modern jack-up rigs, from around US$60,000 a day in 2003, industry players say. Day rates for semi-submersibles, that drill in deeper waters, are usually twice as high as jack-ups.

 

I agreed with what Sporeguy is saying. TA and FA should be used interchangeably, also, guts feeling, business acumen, common sense must also be taken into account.Even if many were saying that SembMar is reaching its yard capacity and would not be able to expand further, look, how many companies in the exchange has secured an order book of1.6Bn worth of contracts?especially in this Super Bull market, investors feel safer in parking $$ in "safer" places where earnings are visible and positive earnings are expected with high dividend yield. I bought Semb at 3.26 and let go at 3.36 and bought again at 3.28..you just ride on it and it should not go too far wrong..

 

TA is accurate only if the rhythm is fairly constant. TA using AD and C charts are for short terms, hence less accurate than using wave theory which could have factor in the FA effect more than AD and C charts. If there is sudden movement of prices or news, then need to consider FAs. But FAs are very difficult to fathom if we want to go in deeper analysis. So may have to use business acumen as a form of FA.

 

Hi Rogue: Dont worry abt it - whatever goes up will come down to me.  As long as I make some $, it's fine but just feel "heartpain" that I would have made more $ if I didnt sell much earlier.  Anyway, looking at Rotary n HG metal now... :->



Hi Singaporegal: everyone learns from mistake, it's ok to make mistake on Sembmar but do not stop writting from here.  I would like to see more of your writting, it does benefit at times. :->

Cheers all to making more $$$$$$$.......

 

Hi kawaiiboi, I not sure abt Chaikin Money Flow so I do not have any comments.



Hi ksjlmp, my apologies to you if I sounded too harsh. I am also learning and good luck to your investing.