Sembcorp Ind    Last:6.62    +0.17

FA and TA

Price direction will be clearer after announcement of the new UK Utilities contract which should be due by end of the month.

 

this afternoon keeps hovering around $4.09-$4.10...tugging of the bull and bear...till now...no clear winner yet

 

Copied her for easier ref, from tweety's posting under other recommendation.

sources UOB Kay Hian

Date 3/3/08

SembCorp Industries

4Q07: Disappointing flat earnings guidance for FY08.

SCI reported a net profit of S$151.8m (-61% yoy) and S$526.2m (-49% yoy)

for 4Q07 and FY07 respectively. SCI has declared a DPS of 15cts.

Excluding exceptionals, net profit would have been S$182.8m (+42% yoy)

and S$557.2m (+46% yoy), respectively. Tax write-backs totalled S$56m.

FY07 net profit excluding exceptionals and tax-write-backs would have been

S$501.1m (+24% yoy). Management is guiding flat earnings (ex

exceptionals) in FY08, despite a strong earnings growth in SembCorp Marine

(SMM). SCI ?expects to maintain its FY07 PATMI before exceptional items

excluding the one-off tax write-back?.

Management expects utilities earnings to fall in FY08, due to lower profits

from its UK utilities business on a weaker sterling pound. Moreover, one of

its UK?s gas supply contracts will be renewed in March this year on higher

prices. Our FY08 and FY09 earnings forecasts remain relatively unchanged

and we initiate our FY10 forecast at S$647.0m. We lower our fair value by

13% from S$5.75 to S$5.00 based on a revised sum-of-the-parts valuation of

S$5.07/share. This revision is due to an earlier revision of our target price for

SMM from S$4.65 to S$4.20. We remain neutral on SCI and prefer

SembCorp Marine (BUY/Target: S$4.20).

 

any ta on this?  tia

 

This announcement was just posted. My guess is that they are paving the way for a separate SembCorp Utilities listing. Afterall, its contribution to SCI is about that same as SM.

Personnal opinion.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_F0AF25F7F3E4051D482573E0000C861F/$file/NewSubCNWProject.pdf?openelement

 

Most of the day languishing in the red between 5.30 and 5.37. After trade price pushed up to green to 5.47 on 294 lots. Indicators beginning to turn up.

 

Besides, the separate Utilities listing, if it comes about, is at least 9 - 18 months away.

 

keke, yeps shplayer. i have a strike for this baby at 5.15. but will see how. overall market is reaeaally not good. the scary thing is that most have formed the lower high from the oct/nov area already; the qn is if they'll break the lower low: the previous time, it pinged off. but if it does break lower low, it's cfm downtrend. no capricorn effect liao.

 

elf,

Yep, indicators bearish. No intention of taking the plunge yet.

 

careful SCI; may break downwards. testing lower bollie. may test low of 5.3

 

Announcement in SGX.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_956391FCBA82BDE4482573C200173C4D/$file/SUTPPU1Jan2008.pdf?openelement

Could this be a prelude to a separate listing of the Utilities Division?

Comments? Anyone?

 

?

 

Also creeping up .....

 

SembMar next .....

 

UP UP UP!! do you all reckon it will go up tis monday?

 

SembCorp is trading between $5.75 to $5.90 today.

 

Hi all,

Any TA experts using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo?

Anyone can confirm if Semb Corp Ind is showing a weak bullish signal?

1) Kijun line crossover up occurs below Ichimoku cloud

2) Price action occurs below Ichimoku cloud

Also, anyone can confirm with other indicators whether it is topping out, downtrend or uptrend?

Thanks.

 

$Kam$Ko,

P/E in FA, like the various indicators in TA, is a useful tool in the analysis as long as one knows how to interprete it and use it.

With P/E,  one must also consider the growth prospect of the company before benchmarking what is reasonable pricing. So, a company with P/E of say 10X with poor  or negative growth prospects may be more expensive than a Co. with a P/E of 20X but with good growth prospects over the next few years.

Of course, earlier in the year, speculators have rammed up $ losing penny stock prices to unreasonable levels......so in this case, FA practioners will avoid these counters.

 

 

Hi singaporegal,

Thanks and I also agreed that TA charts (12/3) shows signs of topping out on the short term.

However, one of its warrants, Semb CorpSGAeCW80317, showed particular huge volumes on 12/3 compared to last 20 trading days.

Anyone knows if this indicate a large price movement of SempCorp will occur?

 

PE ratios of some stocks can be crazily out of whack with reality...

are we to have continue having 'faith' in them?

Better to ignore them and concentrate on the present price action itself...

 

At current price of 5.50 to 5.60, it is trading at about P/E 20X forecast FY07 eps......without taking into account SM's FX losses. So, when we account for SM's FX losses, the P/E will be higher.

This makes current price quite demanding.

Personnal opinion.