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CapitaMall Trust - Fairly Valued Uninspiring Catalysts
Author: kimeng | Publish date: Wed, 27 Nov 09:19
Downgrade to HOLD. We downgrade CMT to HOLD on valuation grounds and lackluster DPU growth prospects as most of its eligible portfolio malls have already undergone asset enhancements (little boost to our DDMderived TP). The remaining known drivers include: (1) Bugis Junction which will complete its SGD35m AEI (with incremental SGD3.1m NPI per annum) by 3Q14 (2) Tampines Mall with its SGD36m AEI (with incremental SGD2.9m NPI per annum) by 4Q15 and (3) the active leasing of Westgate and Westgate Tower (30% stake) in 4Q13 and 4Q14 respectively. The two AEIs are relatively small with projected increment in capital value (net of capex) of SGD22.1m and SGD16.4m respectively, adding ~3 SG-cts to our RNAV. We are forecasting an unexciting 2.6% DPU CAGR in 2013-2016. We transfer coverage of CMT to Ong Kian Lin from Wilson Liew. Our top pick in this space is Suntec REIT.
All eyes on Westgate. CapitaLand announced in Aug that it will retain its corporate headquarters at Capital Tower in the CBD, reversing its earlier intention to move to Westgate Tower a year ago. CapitaLand was originally slated to occupy half of Westgate Tower. This means all 320k sqft NLA in the tower is now available for lease by end 2014. All 314k sqft office space in the Jem development next door, slated to complete later this year, has been fully leased with key tenants being MND, BCA and AVA). Westgate will face competition in its next rent review cycle in 2016-2017 when Sim Lian?s nearby mixed development project in Venture Avenue (with minimum 90% office component ~500k sqft office space) comes onboard. We are forecasting average passing rents of SGD16.50psf/mth for Westgate retail and SGD7.50 for Westgate Tower.
Acquisitions unlikely in near term. CMT?s gearing is at a comfortable 34.8%. While management is open to acquisitions, we think any acquisition from its sponsor is unlikely to happen soon. This is because CMA?s most stabilized asset, ION Orchard, remains a major contributor to recurrent income while the other properties (The Star Vista, Bedok Mall and 50% stake in Westgate) are either not stabilized or still under construction.
Other catalysts. The redevelopment of Funan (additional GFA of 315,561 sq ft already approved for office use) remains a possibility, but we believe the preference would be to change it to retail use, either in whole or in part. There is also market talk of CapitaLand selling strata offices in Westgate Tower on a whole floor basis. The eventual materialization of Funan?s AEI plans and Westgate Tower strata office sales may be positive catalysts for the stock, but until then, we derate CMT to HOLD with TP of SGD2.10.
Yes you are spot on to short this counter! What is the support level?
marubozu1688 ( Date: 29-Jul-2013 15:49) Posted:
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Potential candidate to short! High gearing!
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-reits/are-you-ready-to-short-singapore-reit/
Singapore
Daily
CapitaMall Trust: Positive Start to the Year Maintain BUY, TP $2.45
Following the completion of a number of major asset enhancements, plans
are afoot for a medium-scale AEI at Bugis Junction. We remain sanguine
about CMT’s growth potential and maintain our BUY recommendation, target
price raised to SGD2.45.
CMT’s 1Q13 DPU of 2.46 cts/unit was largely within expectations. The
malls’ healthy shopper traffic and sales growth had underpinned a 6.2%
positive rental reversion for new leases or renewals signed in the
quarter.
No blockbuster AEI plans have been announced involving Tampines Mall
and/or Funan, but we have not ruled out the possibility that they will
be revealed in the coming months. Meanwhile, management will be kept
busy with the Bugis Junction AEI and the active pre-leasing of Westgate
Mall. ...Last Done: $2.270.... two-year high: $2.320...
Singapore Daily CapitaMall Trust: At All The Right Places Maintain Buy, TP $2.36 We reiterate our BUY recommendation on CMT, which is one of our top picks amongst S-REITs. We expect new AEI plans to be announced soon, pertaining to Tampines Mall and/or Funan. CMT has been actively managing its capital structure and has one of the longest average terms to maturity of its debts at nearly 4.2 years following the recent redemption of its retail bonds. We think its cash position of ~SGD800m is more than enough to fund new AEIs. CMT’s three strategically-located malls in Jurong are well-poised to further benefit in the long run from a larger catchment area with the upcoming Tengah New Town, to be connected by the future Jurong Region MRT Line. Reiterate BUY and our target price of SGD2.36.
... Last Done $2.11 ...
West Gate is coming along nicely!!!
.... oops ... mistake .... it is CapMallsAsia.... arigato gozaimasu ...
Are you referring to Capitalmall Asia or Capitalmall Trusts in your posting?
guoyanyunyan ( Date: 06-Mar-2013 09:58) Posted:
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SG Daily: Staying Ahead of the Curve in China Buy TP $2.55
We caught up with management recently and highlight some key issues which investors were interested about pertaining to CMA’s China operations. We walked away more confident than ever on the Group’s efforts in China and management’s endeavours to stay ahead of the curve. Maintain BUY. The salient issues raised were with regards to potential oversupply of retail space in China, how CMA will scale up its operations going forward, and how management intends to deal with the rapid growth of the e-commerce industry. We remain convinced that CMA is on the right course in expanding in China and applaud management’s efforts to constantly innovate to ensure that its malls stay relevant. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD2.55.
| DIVIDEND |
| Ex.Date: 27 Nov 2012 |
| ADVD $0.015 - SGD 0.016 LESS TAX |
pantoo ( Date: 23-Nov-2012 00:44) Posted:
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Can cash out from reits etc...... cycle is ending...... lol
yeah... it's CD and why is the dividend amount not disclosed on SGX?
Any idea how much is the dividend?
super uptrending stock..
gd luck dyodd
this stock +ve with most -ve move today...
Today, Might able to make some coffee $ on this stock.
~ CAPITAMALLS ASIA LTD
• Singapore's CapitaMalls Asia said on Sunday it had acquired Olinas Mall in Tokyo for 22.8 billion yen ($290 million) from Tiger Eye Realty Yugen Kaisha, a special purpose vehicle of a real estate investment fund managed by Invesco Global Real Estate Asia Pacific, Inc.