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will my STI 2400 really comes?
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One Year Later: Is The Bear Really Dead?The optimistic extreme we've been waiting for has finally arrived
The two columns below compare quotes from news stories in March-April 2009, vs. quotes from today's news:
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Spring 2009:
"Dow 5,000? A Bearish Possibility?" (Wall Street Journal)
"The bear market is tightening its grip. No one is taking a back seat approach. Everyone is selling. We're collapsing in on ourselves." (New York Times)
"I don't want to sound like the grim reaper, but it's possible that one of the [major] averages could come down by another 50% drop from here. This is a slow-drip, slow-death decline." (LA Times)
"It's going to continue its easiest path, and that path it sees is down. That's where we're stuck right now and who's going to get out in front of it?" (AP)
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May 2010:
"Getting back to 11,000 is a clear sign of a well-advanced recovery in the market and that we may have finally healed from the worst of the financial crisis." (AP)
"We have a lot of room to run. I don't know how you could wish for better circumstances." (Bloomberg)
"All economic reports are pointing up, not down. That is giving investors a reason to remain bullish." (USA Today)
"The biggest thing in the market at the moment is the path of least resistance is higher." (Reuters)
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One-plus year ago, there was no "fundamental-based" reason to believe the ongoing slaughter of stocks and financials would stop. The U.S. equity market was at its lowest level in 12 years, while the banking system seemed near a total collapse. In the words of the stories in the left-hand column above -- the bear was "tightening" its grip, the clearest path for stocks was "down," and there was no light at the end of the tunnel.
But as the quotes in the right-hand column show, the opposite happened: A 70%-plus rally in stocks and all-out rebound in investor optimism. This alternative is exactly what our analysts foresaw.
Here, the following archive of EWI's past analysis stands in complete contrast to the "grim-reaper" sounding mainstream:
February 23, 2009 Short Term Update:
"If one is aggressively bearish the stock market, having a planned out exit strategy now is not only prudent, but necessary in light of some of the sentiment readings we see."
Namely, a 3% reading in the Daily Sentiment Index, the lowest level in the 22-year history of weekly figures.
February 23 Elliott Wave Theorist:
"Ideally, the S&P should continue down into the 600's. When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than later."
February 27 Short Term Update:
"The turn will come on or near March 10, 2009. Anywhere in this period may mark a turn, which will obviously be a market low."
The S&P bottomed two weeks later at 666.79 on March 9.
April 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist:
The rally "could carry the Dow as high as 10,000. Regardless of its extent, it should regenerate substantial feelings of optimism... the government will be taking credit for successfully bailing out the economy, and investors will be convinced that the bear market is behind us. Be prepared for this environment."
Flash ahead to today: The May 2010 Elliott Wave Financial Forecastpicks up where the April Theorist left off and positively confirms the "anticipated outbreak of rose-colored economic forecasts" and several bullish long-term sentiment measures. Among the most significant of these readings is a ten-year extreme in the 30-day moving average of the CBOE Equity put/call ratio. As the May Elliott Wave Financial Forecast points out:
"Options traders are making a big one-way bet on a two-way market."
This is absolutely correct...
:)Investment is not the same for everybody...
Every person is different...
Some can lose, (or can afford to lose) big amounts temporarily,
but they can still joke and enjoy karaoke with their friends...
While others will feel a great sense of loss if the stock goes against their price just a day after their entry...
Thus, no one can say which method is suitable for whom...
Since money is the reason one plays the stock market, money is an extremely precious thing...
i totally agree with u, never aim to catch the bottom, it'll never happen, just buy gradually during corrections..
buy what u can afford, dont borrow to buy, so u have the power to hold if market go down further..
if u r a person that can't stand to see 'red' in ur portfolio within short term (few weeks to few months), dont follow my strategy, u won't go POK, u'll just go POK POK POK POKerface..
E-war ( Date: 11-May-2010 16:23) Posted:
| There will never be an ideal time... just buy at a suitable time with a 2-3 yr time frame. |
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Even being "
pok!' for just one week is depressingly unbearable for
anyone,
Not to mention months or years...
Talk is cheap...
wah....i dunno whether i got life to live 2-3 years or not leh..
2-3 years is very long term u know? many things can happened leh
E-war ( Date: 11-May-2010 16:23) Posted:
| There will never be an ideal time... just buy at a suitable time with a 2-3 yr time frame. |
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Yup...
That is what I mean by miracle... But one can call it a
black swan if one prefers...
wIth tOday's gOvernamcE mEss
EvErythIng Is pOssIblE
The real secret of stock market play is to have humility...
Having humility means to easily admit one has been silly...
And that's what I mean by having character...
Because being assertive and arrogant with the stock market beast is not humility...
That is ego-inflation...
kellychang ( Date: 11-May-2010 13:41) Posted:
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well. i miss the boat again and again.
sorry.
silly kelly really a silly kelly :)
hahahahaha
iPunter ( Date: 11-May-2010 08:59) Posted:
Your comparison of stock playing with marriage is sooper dooper relevant... and interesting! Many people go into marriage as though they are into a sure thing... they don't want to 'miss the boat'... But the underlying reality of the situation is that by the act of marrying, they only are only entering into an agreement to be together. But this act alone certainly does not equate with marriage success. In fact success in this context is made even more precarious and elusive. For what one (or rather two) virtually did was bought a lottery ticket, as it were. Nothing more, nothing less. The same principle applies with stocks... I am sure you know what I mean... Unless you can assure me the stock market will be in a bull run in the next few weeks or months...
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There will never be an ideal time... just buy at a suitable time with a 2-3 yr time frame.
well. i miss the boat again and again.
sorry.
silly kelly really a silly kelly :)
hahahahaha
iPunter ( Date: 11-May-2010 08:59) Posted:
Your comparison of stock playing with marriage is sooper dooper relevant... and interesting! Many people go into marriage as though they are into a sure thing... they don't want to 'miss the boat'... But the underlying reality of the situation is that by the act of marrying, they only are only entering into an agreement to be together. But this act alone certainly does not equate with marriage success. In fact success in this context is made even more precarious and elusive. For what one (or rather two) virtually did was bought a lottery ticket, as it were. Nothing more, nothing less. The same principle applies with stocks... I am sure you know what I mean... Unless you can assure me the stock market will be in a bull run in the next few weeks or months...
Livermore ( Date: 11-May-2010 07:54) Posted:
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Here is just my point of view. From what I have learnt in the past on proper way to short and comparing with your method, your method of shorting is a bit risky. In some way, you are guessing that you are at the peak. It is not always about getting the lowest price to buy and it is not always about getting the highest price to short. I would say your method of shorting would be more sucessful if based on candlestick i.e stock goes up to intra day high but ends up closing at below previous day closing price on a long down bar. The chances of shorting is higher.
So when you read people saying,"Oh I will wait till STI hit this level then I buy." These are the ones who will always end up "missing the boat". They are scared so they want "ideal price". Like marriage, maybe they want to marry the ideal partner in life. Sometimes it happens , but most fo the time no. |
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Are you always on the bearish mood? You always short to gain instead of long to gain I suppose! Ha. ha.. ha...
iPunter ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:47) Posted:
It won't 'finish' ... More trillions can be easily created!... But the question is, will results be good?... hehehe...
beruangface ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:41) Posted:
| err..after 1.5 Trillion Euro is finish lor. |
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Maybe it will take some time for the trillions to be printed, to come in the stock market around the world, and then a rebound will happen for Singapore stock market ?
This place is getting stuffy...
It won't 'finish' ...
More trillions can be easily created!...
But the question is, will results be good?...
hehehe...
beruangface ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:41) Posted:
err..after 1.5 Trillion Euro is finish lor..
Juzztrade ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:36) Posted:
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mother farker trader?
des_khor ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:38) Posted:
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Hahaha... :)
You are absolutely correct, Sir...
We are all gods!...
hehehe...
des_khor ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:26) Posted:
| I like you post man !! you always say until you like a god !! |
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err..after 1.5 Trillion Euro is finish lor..
Juzztrade ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:36) Posted:
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What is the time frame?
kellychang ( Date: 06-May-2010 23:19) Posted:
well, since early this Year, i am expecting STI 2400.
see now everyday blood, everywhere blood.
i think my prediction may come true :)
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ask MFT !
What is the time frame?
kellychang ( Date: 06-May-2010 23:19) Posted:
well, since early this Year, i am expecting STI 2400.
see now everyday blood, everywhere blood.
i think my prediction may come true :)
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original author is busy reading charts, she asked me to tell u the index now is -12 and 2400 will realize soon, so take it easy and be prepared for the doom day
niuyear ( Date: 11-May-2010 12:07) Posted:
Dear original author of this post,
When is 2400 going to be breached? Do constantly keep this Forum updated. Tks. |
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