Post Reply
1-20 of 45
While the trend is still up, here's a multi-year chart showing
significant resistance ahead for the
SPX.
"Wave 1 = Wave 5" is a common relationship. Counting the 5 waves from the July lows, this gives us a target around 1295. Also note that price is approaching the upper trendline. We already talked about the very overbought oscillators and extreme bullish sentiment.
Trying to trade a top or bottom can be a deadly exercise. The more prudent approach would be to wait for a significant trendline break, before taking action with a suitable stop. All the best!
While the SPX is rangebound in the doldrums, here's the 15-year SPX chart once again. Good news for the bulls: the current consolidation is occuring just after a break above the downtrendline joining the Oct07-May10 tops. Good news for the bears: The decade old parallel channel line resistance(red line) is just above around 1210, followed by 1220 horizontal resistance.
With the weekly RSI overbought & dollar finding support as well, it would probably be prudent for bulls to take profits at this point, and wait for a positive break above 1220, before initiating fresh positions.
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/10/s-trendline-watch.html
In March this year, i suggested "
Sell in May and go away", based on a 15-year SPX chart. In May, the SPX peaked at 1220 right on the dot as shown on
this chart. Now, it's
make-or-break time for the S&P500. It is up against downtrendline resistance joining the May-Aug tops, and overbought. Just above is the long-term trendline(red) that stopped the SPX dead in its tracks in May. Which way is it gonna go?
Last post on 5-Sep, called for a move up into the
1130-1150 range on the SPX, followed by a U-turn. We're there now, and it remains to be seen, if there's gonna be an impulsive decline to follow. The likely location for the reversal is around
1150, or the upper line of the blue channel. A move back
below 1130 would be the first step. The potential spoiler to this scenario is the rough Inverse H&S formation that is just breaking out.
S&P500 has reached the downtrendline as suggested, and may now take a breather, before breaking above it. Very Short Term, support is at 1100 & 1085. My primary view in the medium-term: a move up towards 1130-1150 is possible to finish this complex B wave. Still expecting a C-wave tumble towards 950 after that, to possibly end the correction. Watch the blue channel on a break above the maroon channel.
A solid break, out of the channel. Expect initial resistance at 1090.
This move down since the
trendline break, has all the looks of an impulsive decline, and may be the beginning of a wave C or 3 down. Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite seems to have put in a medium-term bottom last month. As proposed in a
post earlier this year, Shanghai leads SPX by 3-4 months. This could mean a medium-term bottom in SPX may be due only around end-September or October. This is pure speculation of course, as correlations only last as long as they last!
Very short-term, support for a
technical rebound may be found around 1070 on the SPX, based on the rising trendline(green) as shown on the chart
Last post on the SPX500 called for at least a consolidation from the wedge formation. We got one now with the trendline break, and sharp one too! Although oversold in the very short-term, with the possibility of a weak bounce, we can expect further downside into next week.
Last post on the SPX discussed the bullish and bearish views, and suggested a break of the downtrendline as an indication of the former. With the bullish price action last session(although on relatively low volume), SPX is on the verge of an upside breakout.
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-short-term-on-verge.html
SPX has broken above the "neckline" of 1040 (although on lower volume) negating the possible Head & Shoulders. Medium-term trend is still down & the short-term outlook is neutral, unless we break back below 1040. The asian indices have not come close to forming a H&S thus far.
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-short-term-resistance-levels.html
Last post on the SPX, outlined the price action then as bearish, with stiff resistance at 1100. Since then, the index has not looked back and continued down to break below the crucial 1040 area. Oversold manages to remain oversold, which reeks of bear market behaviour (remember how overbought remained overbought on the way up?).
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-short-term-breakdown-towards-950-960.html
Hi Hulumas, at the moment i've no bias eitherway. Only time will tell
Hulumas ( Date: 17-May-2010 20:20) Posted:
Which one is more likely to happen?
trendlines ( Date: 16-May-2010 18:19) Posted:
|
|
|
S& P500 Short-Term: Bearish Wedge
Not to swing at every pitch requires a lot of discipline. If one takes only the best setups, with a safety margin, one can't go too far wrong. (Sounds like value investing, doesn't it?!) The S& P500 maybe providing a short-term bearish opportunity.
My last update noted a trendline break with support at 1300, and suggested that we might see a shorting opportunity. Since then prices have whip-sawed impressively, and failing at the back-test of the broken trendline. Thus resulting is what could be a bearish Rising Wedge, as shown on this 30-min chart.
Top of the wedge is at 1332, bottom is the rising trendline. A break eitherway could be bullish/bearish. But Elliott Wave Theory suggests that after an impulsive decline and a corrective upmove, there should follow at least another impulsive decline.
Strategy:
1. Taking a short-position at the top of the wedge, with RSI close to 70 on the 30-min chart(for margin of safety), with a suitable stop just above. In case of decline below the lower trendline, looking at a target of around 1275.
2. In case of a break above the wedge, i won't be taking any long positions until clear of recent highs.
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2011/03/s-short-term-bearish-wedge.html