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Swine Flu - Is history repeating itself?

 

World now at the start of 2009 influenza pandemic

Dr Margaret Chan
Director-General of the World Health Organization

Ladies and gentlemen,

In late April, WHO announced the emergence of a novel influenza A virus.

This particular H1N1 strain has not circulated previously in humans. The virus is entirely new.

The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another, and from one country to another. As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

This is only part of the picture. With few exceptions, countries with large numbers of cases are those with good surveillance and testing procedures in place.

Spread in several countries can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of human-to-human transmission. Further spread is considered inevitable.

I have conferred with leading influenza experts, virologists, and public health officials. In line with procedures set out in the International Health Regulations, I have sought guidance and advice from an Emergency Committee established for this purpose.

On the basis of available evidence, and these expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.

I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6.

The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.

We are in the earliest days of the pandemic. The virus is spreading under a close and careful watch.

No previous pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely, in real-time, right at the very beginning. The world can now reap the benefits of investments, over the last five years, in pandemic preparedness.

We have a head start. This places us in a strong position. But it also creates a demand for advice and reassurance in the midst of limited data and considerable scientific uncertainty.

Thanks to close monitoring, thorough investigations, and frank reporting from countries, we have some early snapshots depicting spread of the virus and the range of illness it can cause.

We know, too, that this early, patchy picture can change very quickly. The virus writes the rules and this one, like all influenza viruses, can change the rules, without rhyme or reason, at any time.

Globally, we have good reason to believe that this pandemic, at least in its early days, will be of moderate severity. As we know from experience, severity can vary, depending on many factors, from one country to another.

On present evidence, the overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms and make a rapid and full recovery, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment.

Worldwide, the number of deaths is small. Each and every one of these deaths is tragic, and we have to brace ourselves to see more. However, we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections.

We know that the novel H1N1 virus preferentially infects younger people. In nearly all areas with large and sustained outbreaks, the majority of cases have occurred in people under the age of 25 years.

In some of these countries, around 2% of cases have developed severe illness, often with very rapid progression to life-threatening pneumonia.

Most cases of severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years.

This pattern is significantly different from that seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza, when most deaths occur in frail elderly people.

Many, though not all, severe cases have occurred in people with underlying chronic conditions. Based on limited, preliminary data, conditions most frequently seen include respiratory diseases, notably asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders, and obesity.

At the same time, it is important to note that around one third to half of the severe and fatal infections are occurring in previously healthy young and middle-aged people.

Without question, pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups.

Finally, and perhaps of greatest concern, we do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world. To date, the vast majority of cases have been detected and investigated in comparatively well-off countries.

Let me underscore two of many reasons for this concern. First, more than 99% of maternal deaths, which are a marker of poor quality care during pregnancy and childbirth, occurs in the developing world.

Second, around 85% of the burden of chronic diseases is concentrated in low- and middle-income countries.

Although the pandemic appears to have moderate severity in comparatively well-off countries, it is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying medical problems.

Ladies and gentlemen,

A characteristic feature of pandemics is their rapid spread to all parts of the world. In the previous century, this spread has typically taken around 6 to 9 months, even during times when most international travel was by ship or rail.

Countries should prepare to see cases, or the further spread of cases, in the near future. Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection.

Guidance on specific protective and precautionary measures has been sent to ministries of health in all countries. Countries with no or only a few cases should remain vigilant.

Countries with widespread transmission should focus on the appropriate management of patients. The testing and investigation of patients should be limited, as such measures are resource intensive and can very quickly strain capacities.

WHO has been in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers. I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.

Pending the availability of vaccines, several non-pharmaceutical interventions can confer some protection.

WHO continues to recommend no restrictions on travel and no border closures.

Influenza pandemics, whether moderate or severe, are remarkable events because of the almost universal susceptibility of the world’s population to infection.

We are all in this together, and we will all get through this, together.

Thank you.

 

I am really afraid of the swine flu -- not the flu itself, but its stigma.  

 

 

World getting "very close" to A/H1N1 pandemic, says WHO Updated June 10, 2009 02:00 AM

GENEVA, (Xinhua) -- The world is getting "very close" to a pandemic as the new A/H1N1 flu virus spreads further around the globe, a senior World Health Organization (WHO) official said yesterday.

"We are really getting very close" to a pandemic situation, WHO Assistant Director-general Dr. Keiji Fukuda told a news briefing in Geneva.

He said signs of community-level transmission of the virus had actually appeared in the Victoria state of Australia.

"One of the things we are really focusing on right now is to help countries, institutions and the media really understand what are pandemics," Fukuda said.

He said the WHO is trying to provide countries and the public with as much information as possible in order to "reduce the chances of any adverse effects" once a pandemic is declared by the UN agency.

By declaring a pandemic, the WHO needs to raise its pandemic alert level from the current phase 5 to phase 6.

It is not simply "getting up in front of press cameras or making an announcement, it's really a way to prepare the world to deal with the situation," Fukuda said.

"It's a matter of making sure that countries get as prepared as possible," he said, adding that avoiding panic is very important.

 

When they say mild symptoms, how mild is it compared to normal flu which is in our community all year round? Just curious because my definition of mild may not be the same as their definition of mild.  How different is it from normal flu, or is it if you are not tested for H1N1 which in fact you have, does it mean that you will think it's just like normal flu? 

 

Big wok, my son coming back ds Sun, after Coy's assignment. Must buy mask for d family liao, just in case. No joke whole family quarantine for a week, hah. Or best he straight go to Pasir Ris Quarantine Centre after departure fr airport.

US didn't impose strict measure on H151, probably they treated ds just as d normal influenza, which also kills hundreds of people a yr.  

Sporeguy      ( Date: 04-Jun-2009 09:16) Posted: Is it true that in the US, they could not be bother to do temp screening at airports, etc ? To them, it is just another flu.

 

Is it true that in the US, they could not be bother to do temp screening at airports, etc ? To them, it is just another flu.

 

Despite the swinflue, still got singaporeans go to Europe countries for tour.  When these people get back, for goodness sake, hope they stay home until they are clear.

2 weeks ago, that Filipina lady (she came back frm US) never stayed home but, took MRT to her office immediately when she came back. What a selfish act!

 

WHO getting closer to declaring A/H1N1 pandemic, says official

 

GENEVA, June 2 (Xinhua) -- As the A/H1N1 flu virus spreads further around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) is getting closer to declaring a full pandemic, a senior official of the UN agency said on Tuesday.

 

    "Globally we believe that we are at phase 5, but we are getting closer to phase 6," said WHO Assistant Director-general Dr. Keiji Fukuda, referring to the WHO's six-phase pandemic alert system.

 

    The new virus is causing more and more infections in countries outside of North America, notably in Britain, Spain, Japan, Australia and Chile, Fukuda told a news conference in Geneva.

 

    "We still are waiting for evidence of really widespread community activity in these countries," he said.

 

    According to the WHO's current pandemic alert system, phase 6 will mean the A/H1N1 flu virus causes sustained and community-level human-to-human transmission in regions outside of North America, so far the only region where community-level outbreak has been confirmed.

 

    So far the virus has caused nearly 19,000 cases of infections in 64 countries and regions, including 117 deaths, the WHO said.

 

 

I am not surprise that it is already in Singapore.  The good news is that the morality rate is really low....so far those detected of the A/H1N1 have recovered.......

singaporegal      ( Date: 17-May-2009 21:45) Posted: With Malaysia getting hit with Swine Flu, it will just be a matter of time before it happens to us too.  A scary thought.

 

With Malaysia getting hit with Swine Flu, it will just be a matter of time before it happens to us too. 

A scary thought. 

 

The reason for the complacent are the flu is much milder than originally thought........interestingly the morality rate is much higher in Mexico....

Flu seasons generally kill 200~500K of the human  population every year.....last year the figure is about 300K....

Anyway....if you need to travel overseas.....I suggest you get yourself vaccinated with the most current vaccine.....(Sound like a Microsoft Patch...hahaha)

 

ticklish8      ( Date: 16-May-2009 18:58) Posted: Within a day, jump by 1,000 cases. Death also rose by 7 cases. I know swine flu not on radar many investor. just take note.  GENEVA, May 16, 2009 (AFP) - The number of confirmed swine flu cases has reached 8,451, a rise of nearly 1,000 in 24 hours, the World Health Organisation said on Saturday.     The number of people killed by the influenza A(H1N1) virus also rose to 72, compared with 65 on Friday, the WHO said.     Over the past week the number of people infected by the virus has risen sharply with the United States, followed by Mexico, where the epidemic began, recording the highest number of cases.

 

Within a day, jump by 1,000 cases. Death also rose by 7 cases.

I know swine flu not on radar many investor. just take note.

 GENEVA, May 16, 2009 (AFP) - The number of confirmed swine flu cases has
reached 8,451, a rise of nearly 1,000 in 24 hours, the World Health
Organisation said on Saturday.
    The number of people killed by the influenza A(H1N1) virus also rose to 72,
compared with 65 on Friday, the WHO said.
    Over the past week the number of people infected by the virus has risen
sharply with the United States, followed by Mexico, where the epidemic began,
recording the highest number of cases.

 

Last year and this year flu season in north america is H1N1, so they develop a vaccine for it.

The swine flu is A/H1N1...same H1N1 but with some slight differences. Some extra protein coat my family doc explained.....

So the vaccine may help in someway.....some option is better than no option.

I have kept the vaccine box.....it say help to prevent  H1N1-like strain, H3N2-like strain and the Florida2006-like strain. It is like 3-in-1 supercoffee mix.....

36months children and below- half dose.  

BTW,  R U referring to Crotkin Storm ? system produce too many antibody?

 

thomas_low      ( Date: 07-May-2009 00:14) Posted: Does the common flu vaccine work against H1N1? I thought there is no vaccine yet developed for H1N1, the vaccine usually get in clinics are not effective against H1N1. It trigger antibody against the common straints, no medical evidence that it is effective against H1N1, I could be talking out of the downward facing orifice, this is what I thought, please correct me if I am wrong.

 

Does the common flu vaccine work against H1N1? I thought there is no vaccine yet developed for H1N1, the vaccine usually get in clinics are not effective against H1N1. It trigger antibody against the common straints, no medical evidence that it is effective against H1N1, I could be talking out of the downward facing orifice, this is what I thought, please correct me if I am wrong.

 

Sorry to jump in......have you try the current season H1N1, H3N2 and the Florida 2006 Vaccine ?

Just send my whole family tree to our family doctor for vaccination.......Doc say the stocks should be running out soon.

The vaccine generally need 2~3 weeks to develop antibody in your system.

WHO say the flu will screw us again in Autumn.....

 

 

teeth53      ( Date: 06-May-2009 21:34) Posted: For the next 5days. MOH is interested to bring one notch down from Orange to Yellow, me think Yellow Plus (+) Posted: 01-May-2009 11:35 teeth tot: MOH  has Over DONE with Orange, Should be Orange minus (-) or Yellow plus (+)

 

For the next 5days. MOH is interested to bring one notch down from Orange to Yellow, me think Yellow Plus (+)

Posted: 01-May-2009 11:35
	teeth tot: MOH  has Over DONE with Orange, Should be Orange minus (-) or Yellow plus (+)

 

  May 4 (Bloomberg) – One Turkish person died from a suspected case of swine flu in Turkey’s southern resort city of Antalya, CNN Turk
reported today.     A hospital where the person received treatment is now under quarantine, the Istanbul-based news channel said.

 

Obama: Swine flu may run course like other flus http://sg.news.yahoo.com/ap/20090502/twl-us-obama-swine-flu-ef375f8_1.html

The president described a two-pronged U.S. response to the swine flu, a mix of pig, bird and human genes to which people have limited natural immunity. Even if the new flu "is relatively mild on the front end, it could come back in a more virulent form during the actual flu season," Obama said at the close of a Cabinet meeting devoted to the topic.

He said the immediate effort remains to identify people who have the flu, get medical help to the right places and provide clear guidance to both state and local officials and the public. Obama said his government is also doing longer-range work _ producing a vaccine, developing clear guidelines for school closings, trying to ensure that businesses cooperate with workers who run out of sick leave, and preparing for requests for aid from other countries.

teeth53 thot: Virus micro world. Bio-Scientist and it science machinary has try to test..err...prove it matches against human again. This time a mixture of pig, bird and human genes to which people have limited natural immunity.

"We don't know for certain that this will end up being more severe than other seasonal flus that we have," Obama said. "And it's been noted, I think, before that you have over 36,000 people die on average every year from seasonal flus and have 200,000 hospitalizations. he said, Americans and people around the world have not built up immunity to this new flu strain,

"So that's why we're taking it seriously," his govt is also doing longer-range work _ producing a vaccine, developing clear guidelines referred to the flu by its scientific name, H1N1. The World Health Organization has stopped using the term "swine flu"

 

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/426584/1/.html (H1N1 has passed from person to person, due to lack in awareness when dealing with the slightest suspect case)

BERLIN - A man who returned from Mexico with H1N1 flu passed the virus on to a fellow hospital patient as well as one of his nurses, the national disease control and prevention agency, The case took to six the number confirmed in Germany to have contracted the influenza A(H1N1) virus, two of whom had not travelled to Mexico.

Ya. Putting on a N95 mask is more appreciated unless one is in business of dealing with in coming contact...like in airport where one must wear fully when even dealing with the list or the slightest suspect cases, refering to the nurse case in Germany

World still on alert as Mexico sees flu "stabilisation" meanwhile in..

Canadian pigs infected with H1N1 virus "The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) indicates that it has found H1N1 flu virus in a swine herd in Alberta,"  and make me think of...

what the past has happened in Negri Sembilan, near d town of Nilai http://www.agriseek.com/news/A12105/Swine

Swine News: No more pig farms in housing areas

 

http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Malaysia/Story/A1Story20090503-138908.html

PETALING JAYA, MALAYSIA: A Malaysian woman who was on board the same flight as the Mexican man diagnosed with influenza A(H1N1) in Hong Kong has been placed under home quarantine for seven days.

teeth53      ( Date: 02-May-2009 10:20) Posted: Agree with U, still i believe Orange (-) is as good as Orange, like enacting  to ask visitors over past seven (7) days instead of quarantin & remain lockup for 7 days, from flu effected state to declare filling up their form where they R orginiated, from temperature chk (scanning) at entry point (out going flu and temperature delcaration to be the the truth...assuming one is telling the truth.This is mean for last stage red to black alert), all data collected from airplanes that flew in...from effected and none effected states, including taxi drivers to remain consistenly alert and to report to MOH hotline, all personnel remain contactable ** One biggest exesice just done with 12,000 personnel has their temperature chk on 1st May 2009 at the Istana, with help by media. MOH has done a good job to make people's aware for what can happen if it ever happen here. However is a little too much to shown hospital staffs wearing full blown protective items at hospital entry when dealing with public, refer to **, this is Kiasu...Ya. Putting on a N95 mask is more appreciated unless one is in business of dealing with in coming contact...like in airport where one must wear fully when even dealing with the list or the slightest suspect cases, refering to the nurse case in Germany, proper msg has to be send out 7 days before returning (while aboard or oversea) or coming in...all passengers will be inform of....weather is president men or himself.  Just my sharing thot. ticklish8      ( Date: 01-May-2009 15:57) Posted: you look at the way the swine flu got infected. So sometimes have to be kiasu... BERLIN, May 1, 2009 (AFP) - German authorities said on Friday that a nurse who has not been in Mexico but who has treated a patient with swine flu, had contracted the virus but has since recovered.     It is is the first time that the virus has been contracted in Germany, the health ministry said in a statement. The other three confirmed infections in Germany are in people who had recently been to Mexico.