SPC   

Oil demand

1) The Truth about Oil ...Why prices keep falling


At some point, of course, commodities will spike again, but only temporarily. To date, the centuries-old slide in prices has been marked by long bear markets and short bull runs. Data from CSFB shows that the average bull market in oil has lasted from four to nine years, and the average bear market from 11 to 27 years. The bull market that ended last summer saw prices rise tenfold over nine years, mirroring the duration and magnitude of the previous bull market, which ended in 1979. That was followed by a bear market that lasted 20 years. If history is any guide, we're only at the beginning of another long one.


2) Jim Rogers on why oil prices will go up

Foroohar: Inflation-adjusted, oil is the same price that it was in 1976, and in 1870. So why are you still a bull?

Rogers: It doesn't matter. It's also true that just about any stock you can think about is at or below where it was in the 1970s right now. So what? There are still 15- to 20-year periods when commodities, stocks and any other asset class goes up a great deal. In 1987 stocks collapsed by 40 to 80 percent. But people who were smart enough to stay in them made 1,000 percent returns in the next decade. The point is to take advantage of those periods and make some money.

www.newsweek.com

 

 

There is an article in BT today, Pg 12 –SEC okays update rules for oil, gas reserves. Washington - It state that a new rule will be implemented which requires energy companies to disclose their reserves prior to 12 months period rather than yr end prices to investors. Reserves are an oil company’s most valuable asset & a critical indicator of it’s long-term financial prospects. I think most likely SPC bad report last quarter actually pointed to it’s reserves. Anyway, Happy New Year to all forumers, wishing all a prosperous & healthy 2009 & beyond.

 

One country is conserving its reserves while it lets the Middle East countries run out their oil wells

 

Yes, in all CO related industries, be it refinery n transportation. 90 over % NPAT on SPC last qtr tells. However, its last qtr may hv improvement, n div pay out, guess, still substantial.

A typical exp is China aviation. They lost bil of RMB due to CO's order n insurance,  n need gov to pump in bil of dollar to survive. Strange, only China got transparency on ds CO issue.   

Incidentally, AK wishing ALL n Families a happy n prosperous new yr, 2009.

Eddyson      ( Date: 30-Dec-2008 22:32) Posted: Did I miss the boat, Elite San - when is the 4th quater report coming up, pls let us know.Looks like market already bottom back in Nov 08.Today went to SPC to pump petrol with 9% discount & a rebate of $3 for car wash. Keppel own 45% of SPC & they have change their CEO, something is not right with SPC. Did SPC accumulate alot of unrefine oil when it peak? Whenever there is a petrol price cut, I don't see SPC cut first, always it's Shell or Caltex.Maybe that's the reason they kick out the CEO.But SPC these few days keep on cheonging, really cannot tahan.   idesa168      ( Date: 19-Dec-2008 21:53) Posted: Want to wait for the luilian to drop must first have patience. Below $2.00 is kinda of a sure matter. 3rd quarter announcement was 93% dropped in profit, share price nose dive to near $2.00. Now, 4th quarter is near and they had hinted that this coming quarter is not any better than before. So my take, $1.60-$1.70.

 

1 funnie thing about oil is that it is being too oily; when a year ago price at 150+$/barrel, there were shouts that demand for oil is superb, and supply will not meet those deman....but you dont see cars queeing up in shell,SPC or Caltex to fill up tanks...

 and look at the price now..below $40...but everyday life goes on, pump station still get the cars coming in...right? oily stuff always being manipulate by traders.


good thing is that inflation slowly creeping down :)

 

Oops... sorry, wrong name lah, should be Idesa168 San.

 

Did I miss the boat, Elite San - when is the 4th quater report coming up, pls let us know.Looks like market already bottom back in Nov 08.Today went to SPC to pump petrol with 9% discount & a rebate of $3 for car wash.

Keppel own 45% of SPC & they have change their CEO, something is not right with SPC. Did SPC accumulate alot of unrefine oil when it peak? Whenever there is a petrol price cut, I don't see SPC cut first, always it's Shell or Caltex.Maybe that's the reason they kick out the CEO.But SPC these few days keep on cheonging, really cannot tahan.

 

idesa168      ( Date: 19-Dec-2008 21:53) Posted: Want to wait for the luilian to drop must first have patience. Below $2.00 is kinda of a sure matter. 3rd quarter announcement was 93% dropped in profit, share price nose dive to near $2.00. Now, 4th quarter is near and they had hinted that this coming quarter is not any better than before. So my take, $1.60-$1.70. Eddyson      ( Date: 19-Dec-2008 21:25) Posted: Getting impatience leh, why still above $2.Wait & wait, my bone is getting very stiff, cannot tahan the temptation leh.

 

A False Sense of Complacency

A sub-$40 fill-up only lulls us into a false sense of complacency. As I have written repeatedly in recent weeks, we are setting ourselves up for a serious supply problem in the future with oil prices now below their replacement costs.

The facts are sobering:

• Current petroleum stocks in the US are still within the average range for this time of year, according to EIA. They’re now about 8% higher than this time last year, but that’s really nothing to write home about, and it’s not much of a “glut.”
• In a recent interview with Jim Puplava, energy analyst Robert Hirsch commented that a 1 million barrels per day decline in world demand would only move back the global peak of oil production by one month. By that metric, the allegedly huge cutback in oil consumption has bought the world about one month more before we peak-whoop-de-do.
• Oil production in Canada, the US’s top source of crude imports, is faltering as prices are now too low to justify new projects that tap its large-but-costly and difficult reserves in tar sands and heavy oil.
• Our number-three source of imports, Mexico, is in serious trouble. Crude output from our southern neighbor has fallen 7% over last year, and exports are falling much faster, at a 20% decline, according to Pemex. Production from its largest field, Cantarell, one of the four “supergiant” oil fields in the world, is crashing at the rate of 33% per year. At the current rate, Mexico’s oil exports will cease altogether in just seven years.
• Experts at the ASPO and elsewhere believe that, within the next two years, world oil production will go into permanent decline, with depletion removing 2.5 million barrels per day from the world market- that’s roughly equivalent to the total oil imports of Germany. There are no oil projects that can overcome a decline rate like that. And yet, no major economy is even preparing for this inevitability.
• Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has warned that the world needs $75 oil to ensure future supply, and that current prices “are wreaking havoc on the industry and threatening current and planned investments.”
• With gasoline now well below $2 a gallon, hybrids and other higher-efficiency cars are staying on the dealer lots. According to an analyst at Edmunds.com, a new hybrid would pay for itself in gasoline savings in two or three years with gasoline at $4 a gallon; but, below $2 a gallon, it’s more like seven to eight years. Less than a year ago, you had to get on a waiting list and pay a premium over sticker to buy a new Prius. Now dealers have lots full of them, and Toyota has experienced such a sharp decline in sales that it posted its first operating loss in 70 years. Hopes that we will quickly replace a large percentage of our rolling stock with higher efficiency vehicles are now on hold, along with the hopes for a massive campaign of drilling shale formations and deepwater reservoirs.
• A steep contango condition in oil futures is still in place, reflecting the market’s near-term oversupply and long-term uncertainty.

Given the evidence, the price of oil is wrong. Very wrong. Crude for under $65 a barrel is a bargain, and crude in the low $40s is a steal. I would not be at all surprised to see a sudden and violent move back up for oil prices within the next year, once the current extreme market conditions revert to the mean.

I am still long oil (United States Oil Fund LP ETF, USO (USO: 29.10 +0.076 +0.26%)) and will add to my position if it goes lower. My expectation is to hold it for a year, in case it further overshoots to the downside before recovering.

I’m also on the hunt for top-notch oil companies with low production costs, sizable reserves, and balance sheets healthy enough to let them acquire smaller competitors at basement prices.

I know it’s been a tough year for most investors; but, we’re nearly done with this turkey, and I’m setting my sights on profits for 2009. The buying opportunity of a lifetime is upon us. All we have to do now is wait for the right moment to pull the trigger.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2008/12/26/oil-prices-are-wrong-very-wrong/

 

 

http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/19/price-earnings-ratio/

You think it is cheap?it will get cheaper...but to buy slowly would be fine,as we do not really know the bottom,...but definitely the bottom is still far off.

 

I believe AIG and citi and many other are still very sick...i dont see them turning cornet coming April... Thus, decide yhat somehow market have not bottom yet..

Eddyson      ( Date: 20-Dec-2008 19:43) Posted: Bail out for the 2 car makers are only temporary, by end of March next yr, they have to restructure to be competitive in line with Asia & Euro car makers. The 2 US carmaker have been at a lost of profit since 2004 & I personally does not have confident in them turning around unless a third party comes in to buy them over. The Bush administration is only trying to keep the 2 companies up in good shape first & hand them over to Obama to resolve this long dragging problem so that it look nice & there is no complain during the handover. Comes Feb/March 09, the 2 carmakers will come again to plead for more money, roll up their sleeves & say- can I have another jab please?This is what Mr Bush said during a press interview. Bush said the auto industry is "obviously very fragile" and he is worried about what an out-and-out collapse without Washington involvement "would do to the psychology" of the markets. "There still is a lot of uncertainty," he said. At the same time, the president said anew that he is worried about "putting good money after bad," meaning taxpayer dollars shouldn't be used to prop up companies that can't survive the long term. He revealed one other consideration -- that Obama will become president in just over a month. "I thought about what it would be like for me to become president during this period. I believe that good policy is not to dump him a major catastrophe on his first day in office," Bush said.

 

a quick question, is there any funds or index which tie with the Crude Oil Price ?

for example, now the crude oil price is USD 33, is there any index selling at USD 33 ?? and when oil price is USD 150, the index also will be USD 150 ? or anything related directly with this Crude Oil Price index?

Any experts can tell me where can I trade the crude oil price ?

buying crude oil "index" is just as good as buying the GOLD right now.. wanna know any funds in this market currently...

 

Bail out for the 2 car makers are only temporary, by end of March next yr, they have to restructure to be competitive in line with Asia & Euro car makers. The 2 US carmaker have been at a lost of profit since 2004 & I personally does not have confident in them turning around unless a third party comes in to buy them over. The Bush administration is only trying to keep the 2 companies up in good shape first & hand them over to Obama to resolve this long dragging problem so that it look nice & there is no complain during the handover. Comes Feb/March 09, the 2 carmakers will come again to plead for more money, roll up their sleeves & say- can I have another jab please?This is what Mr Bush said during a press interview.

Bush said the auto industry is "obviously very fragile" and he is worried about what an out-and-out collapse without Washington involvement "would do to the psychology" of the markets.
"There still is a lot of uncertainty," he said.
At the same time, the president said anew that he is worried about "putting good money after bad," meaning taxpayer dollars shouldn't be used to prop up companies that can't survive the long term.
He revealed one other consideration -- that Obama will become president in just over a month.
"I thought about what it would be like for me to become president during this period. I believe that good policy is not to dump him a major catastrophe on his first day in office," Bush said.

 

Really dun see any good basis to up that amount. Wondering why? BBs around?

 

maybe the rationale is .. given the magnitude of the economic erosion  .. prevent potential social unrest and potential disruption of law and order ... maybe even slipping into 'modern' Dark Ages ...

...

 

Oil price dropped to USD $33, but this bugger still going up, USD 13.4 b given to the 2 car makers, making American tax payers a sucker.Those 2 car maker's employees' average pay is USD75 per hr & American Average tax payer income is average of USD50.Haha...what a joke.

 

so poor thing, Oil price dropped to USD 33 .... waa .....

 

maybe a bit out-dated ... just thought something to think about ..

 

 

Back to $2? It is possible, but need to be patient. For sure, may not by 2008.

 

 

Want to wait for the luilian to drop must first have patience.

Below $2.00 is kinda of a sure matter. 3rd quarter announcement was 93% dropped in profit, share price nose dive to near $2.00. Now, 4th quarter is near and they had hinted that this coming quarter is not any better than before. So my take, $1.60-$1.70.

Eddyson      ( Date: 19-Dec-2008 21:25) Posted: Getting impatience leh, why still above $2.Wait & wait, my bone is getting very stiff, cannot tahan the temptation leh.