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I think it is even more dangerous to keep on looking back when there is a curve ahead of you - most likely you'll 'crash'!
Frankly, NY Times should know better to even report that piece of news. It was very clear from the beginning that the bailouts were to cushion the Companies from going under. As long as they're still afloat and swimming, the jobs have been done for now. Cheers!
The point to position ourselves ahead of the curve has not arrived. We should always look back and judge where we stand as time goes. Looking ahead for curve turn without looking back is very dangerous.
Most important is to scan the radar for promising stock and do more study and wait for the time to ripe. Since now the problem is ripe, it is obvious too early to call for a turn. It is funny to read from NY Times that the bailout committee has no way to evaulate what they have done and not able to assess their performance. What does it tells?
We are still very shaky in handling the situations.
A New Year, a new beginning..................................at least now we can start with a fresh sheet of new portfolio. It always better to stay ahead of the curve b4 the Funds start rushing back. Of course, do it very selectively. Cheers and all the best for the new beginning!
It is the start of new trading year. Again bullish outlook in STI makes me feel sick. Please read with caution and read the house report in detail.....
As we step in 2009, my advice is stay out and sell into strength if u have some holdings. Lots of buying opportunity along the way.
Today's STI rose strongly. What a mockery of the market due to window dressing.......if you take a peek at other markets. I see this unsustainable. Even if the budget is to be announced earlier in Jan, it will not do more to the falling economy. Any measures would take some time to filter through. Just look at the govt guarantee for borrowing to our local firms. How much have been approved by our local bank? The same kind of effect is observed when you put the last recession package side by side. One ST forumer wrote that it is better that govt approved the loan and passed it to the bank to hand out the $$$. In one way it is at least speeding thing up.
I am not sure if today's retail investor were led into the market by the bullish outlook in weekly ST column. IMHO, the column need not be read. And it is usually very misleading. Just think about this, the economy is at least 9 months to recovery and window dressing effect may be up for the one week or so. Does it mean that the bottom is reached? Please do not be so simplistic. STI is a leading indicator of our local market by 4 to 5 months. So the bottom has not been reach yet.
You better watchout, you better lookout. Santa isn't coming to Town.................Cheers and a merry x'mas anyway!
I concur.I suspect the Madoff effect will kick in as fund redemption starts to pick up. It may be volatile weeks ahead.
When the subprime falls out started, can you remember what Greenspan and Bernanke estimated? It is the systematic risk that a hedge fund run that worries. More hedge fund redemption is going to take place and perhaps more Ponzi imitations are going to be uncovered.
Yesterday unprecedented cut of 1% make it a historical 0% fed fund rate signals the end of what fed could do with main actor of interest rate. What they could do now is very minimal. Printing more money with little ammo.
GS loss of 2.2b, 50-year old for housing starts and consumers refuse to spend are among the things unveil yesterday. Although the US 3 bourses up strongly but I think it is not sustainable. PPl are just got excited when the rate cut is 1%. However when they digest it today, they will be in a hurry to take profit and go into hiding.
Do not expect too much from STI today. Sell into strength.
Let's see how the SEC regulation reviews will affect the hedge funds.
Then again, as long as financial engineers and corporate lawyers exist, one can expect some loophole to be exploited and sow the seeds for future booms/busts. Some other kind of investment funds will be invented.
$50b is nothing much if you see how spread out the losses are. The bigger joke is at AIG - after more than $123 b of bailout funding, the goons are STILL squandering funds on spa retreats for their executives, retention bonuses, etc!
moneytalk.sg ( Date: 17-Dec-2008 01:00) Posted:
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Actually that was what I thought so too. $50 billion is not a huge amount in this financial crisis. I do think that this is perhaps the start of the end of hedge funds.
Blogging at moneytalk.sg on the stock market, ETF and anything to do with money.
pikachu ( Date: 16-Dec-2008 21:58) Posted:
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yoh, 50b not large enough, in US, but guess how much our DIC n Tamasick lose now, in various scandals, as compared to our foreign reserve.
pikachu ( Date: 16-Dec-2008 21:58) Posted:
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I think the scandal is over-hype because the crook is an ex-Chairman of Nasdaq. The damage is only $50 billion. A large sum... but not large enough to seriously affect too many institutions.
The Madoff scandal would keep US and Europe banks busy to uncover their exposure. BNP for one indicates the exposure round 350m.
This week FOMC should be a non event and there is very little the Fed could do.
As the Xmas draws nearly it would be rational for most to close their book and go for a holiday.
It is no surprise the bail out for US auto company failed. The article "Union balks and $14B auto bailout dies in Senate" shows how unwilling ppl refuse to compromise. It is the workers' right to demand no drastic pay cut since what they can offer is their service. Where else can they earn a decent income. However, company also face lots of hardship esp those that are not branded. How to retain ppl if u are not branded and not paying high enough. Too high eat into the operational costs and it becomes hard to keep afloat with too high a fixed cost.
As I have warning before, today should be the start of the bear cycle again. All the bourses defying all gravity and keeps overshooting on the high side should come and face reality. What is most regretting is that the uncle and auntie that join the nerds without relooking at the state of the economy would be again whitewash when the bears rule. How many times this thing repeats itself.
For me I have cleared all I have since yesterday and now preparing for xmas. At least no trading will have no hard pain especially with the festivals soon near us. Whatever rebounds are good creation of those bigger hands that creates the ripples. Just ignore them and you will be save. It is no point see the counters up a few percentage points. You transactions cannot be cover and you are liable for a huge price down and become an irrecoverable investors.
Just my take of the situation. Take a leaf on the history of Dec - a sell off month.