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Anyone helping to put the fire out? It's going down...hehehe
anybody knows when YZJ reporting its quarterly results? seems like all their profit and revenue is in USD.
since USD is going south now, perhaps it will affect its earnings
To SHORT or LONG a stock, the concept is the same. Buy Low, SELL High. To LONG, we buy at a low price and when share price appreciates, we sell. To SHORT, we will borrow script from security to sell first and when the share price drops, we buy back.
The difference is the trading period. To LONG, we buy and will need to settle the purchase in 3 days time, that is T+3. To SHORT, we have to settle on the very day. There is no extra charges.
Little Red, if you are new to stocks, I would suggest you stick to value investing and LONG a stock rather than SHORTING. This is because the odds for SHORTING is against us as mentioned above (settle the very day). You can do shorting when you are more familiar with stocks and the counters you are familiar with.
As for YZJ, it is a sound company, though not as strong as COSCO, but they do make up quite a bit of the mkt share in ship building industry.
Contracts secure from Jan to Sept 07, amounts to about $2.9 Billion to build 73 vessels. To date, they have in total about $5 Billion worth of contracts to build 129 vessels, that includes a new contract secured in Aug 07 of $409 million to build 13 vessels. All these info are found in SGX website.
With such strong order book, do you think they will call for a profit warning which our forumers paperless had suggested? Besides, announcement date for the quarter earning is around the corner. If there is such event, it must be done 2 weeks before the announcement date, rule set by MAS. So I guess it is just a mere rumours which paperless mentioned.
Share prices do not travel in straight line on the day chart. There will be ups and down along the way UP if the counter has strong fundamental. These ups and downs will shake out weak holders and benefits the BBs (Big Boys). If you are a strong believer, had done your homework/research and have holding power, you will succeed.
Come to think of it, my nick does seem inauspicious. Opps...
* idesa168, when someone 'shorts', does it mean that he needs to purchase the stocks within the same day itself? or he can purchase within the next T+3 days? are there any additional charges for shorting? thanks. i wish your prediction of YZJ TP at $3.20 would come true. Even if it's $2.90, i think it's good for starters and my friend who vested at $2.64.
* KilrOy, I think I would consider myself as a value investor since I do not have time to monitor the markets regularly. (Heehee... the term 'value investor' sounds weird .. applying on me since I am only a tiny fly in the market) Hope my capitamall does well.
I know my friend is questioning herself whether she made the wrong choice of buying YZJ. At the time of purchase, the price seems right at $2.64 ... afterwhich the price suddenly plunges. I would have done the same, after reading through the positive financial write-ups on this company, this industry as well as the hype about China stocks. Personally, do you think it will gain high gounds >$2.7 again? Can you suggest some good stocks which I can look into? As a newbie, I get warped by the numerous stocks in the market. Many thanks.
Profit warning is ahead for YZJ. Market rumour.
This time looks like not a bottom up but an abysmal.
lol...
Si lang... I dont recall I did tell you any numbers and those numbers ARE NOT true. <fullstop> : )
I am a value investors for stocks and a trader for FX.
Little Red, actually I dun like your nick, bcos I dun like red...hehehe! Red means underwater in stock mkt lei...lol. Joking.
What Kilroy said is true, a trader or value investor. Kilroy is both. He had about 1.5 million invested in various blue chips counters and currency for long term. He still have about $500,000 to trade short term. Justwith the dividends he is getting is enough to stay at home and mend his garden....hehehe! Am I right, Kilroy bro!
Bottom out soon.....buy..
YANGZIJIANG
Should withstand further selling pressure with first support at $2.43-
45 and revert to recent weekly highs of $2.72-74 in coming weeks
There was no month-end dressing in last 2 days and going by
today?s continued fall, YZJ is going the opposite of its behaviour at
end-Sept and early Oct when a sustainable breakout took it from
around $1.80 to a high of $2.86 on Oct 2. This was followed by a
minor new peak of $2.87 in mid-October.
It was still doing alright after that peak until a heavy volume day on
Oct 30 on 130.8m shares the highest turnover since debut on April
18 (462m shares changed hands), put pressure on the stock.
Nevertheless, it managed to find support at $2.50 and some residual
selling yesterday and today brought the stock to the next $2.43-45
support today.
It is not as if YZJ has failed to penetrate new highs above $2.86-87
with no significant top formation there to justify a shakeout. It was
different though early last month as the surge from 41.80 to $2.86
made it justifiable for an 18.5% correction to a low of $2.33 on Oct 4,
2 days after peaking at $2.86.
Despite this big correction, the counter has stayed well above the
lowest bollinger band (at $2.46) which it is now closing in.
In fact only once on Aug 17 when the STI was floored to as low as
2962 that YZJ fell below the band which has never happened since
April 18 debut. In addition, the close of $2.43 on Oct 4 when it hit
$2.33 should be a pacifier for those concerned about a break of
$2.43-45 support.
On top of that the counter also rebounded strongly to close at $2.68
on Oct 17 after it fell to $2.43 and again on Oct 22 when its low was
$2.49 it finished at $2.58. Now that it is back to below $2.50 at the
low end of October?s $2.33-$2.87, buying on weakness below $2.50
appears appropriate.
The Company's Stock Trading Account is not allowed to buy or
sell security contrary to the recommendation in this report for 3
market days from the date of this report, Nov 1 2007. |
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The buying up at the last half hour was strong, suggesting a follow up on the next session. I can see that there are still some BBs still got chips in hands to throw. But the throwing was so much lighter and less aggressive than on Wed and Thurs. I hope YZJ will find this as the base and continue its upward march.
My mid term target is 3.20. Hope my wish is granted and directly benefits all vested...hehehe.
On the TA aspect, a price gap at 3.32 and 2.28 a month back. YZJ visited 3.32 twice today if I am not wrong. But did not fill the gap. So what's your call comes Monday? Your guess will be as good as mine. My guess....on the first sentence....hehehe. Vested, 3 lots oni!
LR,
It depends if you are a value investor or trader.
What idesa168 highlighted is a value investor's way of thinking. You really need to know what you are. If your friend is a value investor, she/he will not be disappointed when the share price goes down, infact she/he should employ the DCA technique. Conclusion is you will need to know what you are in a stock market.
Have a good weekend!
LittleRed...welcome to the dog eat dog stock mkt...hehehe. Well, as a newbie, you learnt very fast as knowing what is shorting. It took me many moons before I learned about that. If you have a fund for retirement, keeping in insurance or banks will actually grow about +/- 2% in insurance and about less than 1% in banks. Investing in a company is like buying into a business. If the company makes $$, it will give out dividends which on average 3% year. Some counters give very fat divvy, like SPC (6%), SMRT (6%), and others. These counters will give you the margin better than banks and insurance, forget about the short term gyration of the stock. Choose properly a few good ones, I mean real good ones, throw the papers into your drawers and see them only 20 years later. I am sure you should see extra digits PLUS yearly divvy. Your target of seeing results in ONE year is a little too short. Maybe give it 3 or 4 instead. Cheers.
Hi KiLrOy, apologise if I appear to be stubborn. I am thinking aloud here.... if a share price temporary drops because of an overall market downtrend but quickly regains once the market pickup again... then wouldn't it be a waste to drop it once it hits our risk level? I am always under the impression that as long as we select a stock with strong fundamentals and good growth, it should be strong enough to weather the flunctations in market sentiments?
The difficulty here is that I am holding a day time job and it's not nice to be monitoring shares throughout the day. :)
LR,
Your friend will not be feeling like this now if she/he employs a sound money mgmt. She/he will be sighing because the system saved, her.
You spoke so much of making >5%. Are you HOPING? If you are, you will be in for a ride. Market is NEVER kind to newbies as most can profess. I think it will be prudent to save for your retirement and not use the 'Retirement Fund' for such activities. Use only cash that you can risk and risk only the amount in which you are comfortable with.
My personnal take away for you would be NOT about YZJ but to learn about money mgmt FIRST before all else. Market will still be there after you come back better prepared but your money once lost, will be gone forever and you will have to go earn it back. You have your friend as a living testimony, why be another victim?
KilrOy, thank you for the advice. I would think that my friend is very much like me. I have never played with shares before. Prior to this, I only know to put money in bank and in insurance policies. Thus, I would say that any returns >5% a year is a good bonus to begin with. Hopefully, with time, my investment skills get better.
Having read the postings in this forum, I understand that most of you probably make a lot from investing in shares. It's good to ask for opinions before I take the plunge.
In terms of risk, I would say that I can stomach a drastic drop in the share price as long as in within next 12 months, it can give me the >5% returns I want. I don't need the money now as it's part of my "retirement fund" which I will use in the next 20-30 yrs. Having said this, do you think YZJ can regain its former glory and hit $3 by the next 6 months? My friend is feeling terrible now because immediate after her purchase.... YZJ falls into the pithole.
LR, your friend needs to practice money mgmt leh if she/he is not a value investor. Here's a very conservative plan which I am sure many uses.
Assuming she/he invest 8000SGD in 3 lots (7920SGD rounds off to 8K for simplicity sake) of YZJ.
If she/he is only to willing to risk only 3% of the capital invested. The risk in dollar is (3% * 8000SGD = 240SGD).
When her/his investment market value dwindled to 7760SGD (8000-240) which then equates to 2.58SGD as the exit price to liquidate her/his investment so to stick to the 3% risk rule (7760SGD divided by 3000 shares will give you the exit price of 2.58SGD).
As you can see money mgmt doesnt concern the exit share price. Its about the amount of risk you can stomach. As long as the risk % is breach, the system kicks in. The rule is to know your risk % and calculate your exit price. Adjusting the exit price to suit your risk is ... pure SILLYness.
Practice it, live with it, eat it and harmonise with it and it will save your capital.
Another question:- I read postings on folks wanting to "short" a counter. I assume that it means that they sell at a higher price first then buy in later. Does it mean that I can buy in anytime within the next 3 days? What are the other points to note? Many thanks.
I probably wouldn't try this yet since I am a greenhorn but it's good to know.
For 1 lot of YTZ, you can almost get 1 lot XLX and 1 lot ChinaMilk.
Think about it.
alamak, kena ambush at 235!
looks like there is no more downward pressure from the BB doing the road block on every jump. Hope it goes all the way...vested, small small.
