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Gold going up this year?
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Gold tumbles 3%, rattled by fund trade, govt shutdown
Gold sank nearly 3 per cent on Tuesday to its lowest level in almost two months as an unusually large trade in the New York futures market rattled investors already edgy over a partial shutdown of the US government - PHOTO: REUTERS
[NEW YORK] Gold sank nearly 3 per cent on Tuesday to its lowest level in almost two months as an unusually large trade in the New York futures market rattled investors already edgy over a partial shutdown of the US government.
Bullion fell abruptly in early US trading as a massive Comex sell order appeared to overwhelm the market, sending prices US$25 an ounce lower and triggering further technical stop-loss selling below US$1,300, analysts said.
Silver, copper and crude oil also fell at the same time, although not as sharply.
The early activity stirred market talk of forced liquidation by a distressed commodities fund and of selling related to a fund rebalancing on the first day of the third quarter, although no details could be confirmed.
August 27, 2013
Congrats to all who stayed long and strong during the orchestrated gold raid this year. New highs are on the horizon
Gold driven into new bull market on Syria fears
MADRID (MarketWatch) ? Gold futures surged nearly 2% an ounce Tuesday and moved into a fresh bull market as fears over possible U.S. military action against Syria drew investors into the perceived safety of the precious metal.
Gold for December delivery
GCZ3 +1.86% jumped $25.90, or 1.9%, to $1,419 an ounce on the Comex division of the
New York Mercantile Exchange, erasing a
Monday loss of $2.70, or 0.2%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had risen as high as $1,423 an ounce.
Gold is also now just over 20% up from the lows reached by some contracts in late June, officially putting into into a bull market. Technically, a bull market definition is a rise in value of any market by at least 20%, while a bear market works in the opposite direction. Gold prices, however, are still down more than 15% this year.
Gold was building on gains from electronic trade late Monday after U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry said the U.S. will hold the Syrian government accountable for its ?undeniable? use of chemical weapons against civilians in rebel-held areas outside of Damascus last week.
Syria?s decision to allow United Nations inspectors came too late, and U.S. President Barack Obama will now decide how to respond, said Kerry. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad denied the use of chemical weapons and said the U.S. military will fail if it launches an attack against his country.
?Concerns over emerging markets are among the factors weighing on risk sentiment with the Indian rupee and Turkish lira hitting record lows against the dollar. The possibility of Western military action in response to the chemical weapons attack in Syria is also boosting the appetite for both the black and yellow gold,? said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at GFT Markets.
Razaqzada said it also looks like investors are backing out of equities, at least for Tuesday and if that keeps up, more risk capital could be reallocated by investors into rallying precious metals.
Gold has already moved past one of his resistance levels, which run between $1,415 and $1,425.
The Federal Reserve has said improvement in the economy should lead it to reducing asset purchases from their current pace of $85 billion a month, but soft data has kept alive debate about the timing and the amount of tapering. The earliest the Fed could start lowering bond purchases is in September.
Published August 19, 2013 Biz Times
Gold traders most bullish in 5 months
Consumer buying up 53% in Q2, almost making up for gold ETPs' record sales
Gold maintains shine: 'Physical demand remains very robust. People see gold prices as good value at these levels,' says GoldCore's Mark O'Byrne - PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
[LONDON] Gold traders are the most bullish in five months on signs that demand for coins and jewellery increased during a plunge in prices that prompted billionaire investor John Paulson to cut his holding for the first time since 2011.
Thirteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise this week, four were bearish and five neutral, the highest proportion of bulls since March 8. Consumer buying of the metal jumped 53 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, almost making up for the record sales of exchange-traded products backed by bullion, World Gold Council data show.
Gold is set for its first annual decline in 13 years after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, sparking losses for mining companies and hedge funds. Mr Paulson, the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETP, cut his stake by 53 per cent in the second quarter, an Aug 14 government filing showed. The slump spurred purchases and a 16 per cent price rally from a 34-month low on June 28.
" People buying physical gold are more about having a store of wealth in the medium to long term whereas the ETP liquidations are more the speculative side," said Mark O'Byrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd, a brokerage that sells and stores bullion coins and bars. " Physical demand remains very robust. People see gold prices as good value at these levels."
support from super power China..
Gold may be hitting multi-year lows but that's not a problem for the first precious metals exchange, which was launched on Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Touted as the first of its kind in the world, the Singapore Precious Metals Exchange is an online platform that allows investors to buy, sell, and store physical gold and silver. -- ST FILE PHOTO: KEVIN LIM
Gold may be hitting multi-year lows but that's not a problem for the first precious metals exchange, which was launched on Wednesday.
Touted as the first of its kind in the world, the Singapore Precious Metals Exchange is an online platform that allows investors to buy, sell, and store physical gold and silver
Patform which will operate 24/7 will allow investors and traders to buy and sell physical gold for as little as US$1,000.
After they have bought it, the exchange will also provide facilities to store the gold with Certis Cisco Singapore.
New online platform to buy, sell and store gold launched - http://www.sgpmx.com/
http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/?iid=intnlmrkt
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Gold Aug. 2013 contract $ / troy ounce,
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US$1,212.70 -$39.20 |
or -3.13% |
Time: 10:55AM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: GLD
10US$@(O87)
Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume
Last Done: $134.76
with equity markets bleeding profusely
time to shift some allocation to GOLD
the safe haven since the birth of mankind..
Very interesting video about Gold, titled Peak Gold. Increasing demand, with limited supply. What happens to the price?
http://multimillionairehouseholds.blogspot.sg/
This report seems to suggest otherwise...
Source: http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1136020/quantitative-easing-does-little-boost-gold-prices
Gold is at a strange juncture. In sharp contrast to the previous two rounds of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve, gold prices are trending down, not up (see graph).
Quantitative easing is inflationary. Gold offers protection on inflation. Investors should be buying gold now to guard against QE3-fuelled inflation, but this is not the case.
Why not? Gold prices are largely driven by sentiment. No one has a fundamental need for gold. The annual production of gold is only about 3 per cent of the stock of gold held by investors around the world. Which means any price move in the metal is driven by sentiment, not annual supply and demand.
Sentiment is a fickle thing. Investors cannot be counted on to buy gold even if the circumstances suggest the time is right.
Although gold has had a great run in the past decade, much of it has come in response to the uncertain times unleashed by the global financial crisis, and the liquidity injections and rate cuts in the central bank actions that followed.
The fact that gold did not react positively to QE3 reflects the view that the US economy is recovering. As it picks up, the likelihood of another round of quantitative easing decreases. Already in the minutes of the US Fed meeting held in December last year, discussion has begun about winding down QE3.
Although the Fed has promised to hold the official interest rates steady until unemployment declines to 6.5 per cent and inflation is expected to rise above 2.5 per cent, the coming rate increase is likely to be reflected in the Fed communication and the market interest rates much before the official change occurs.
Any rise in the US dollar would also be negative for gold, as its price often picks up in response to US dollar weakness. The rise in rates would also reduce the relative attractiveness of gold and raise holding costs.
Those who want to take exposure to gold can do so through exchange traded funds (such as the SPDR Gold Shares or iShares Gold Trust), or in physical form, or through equity shares in gold producers.
This is the latest commentary my Top Citi analyst, on Gold's little brother Silver for anyone interested: http://silverreport.blogspot.sg/2013/01/tom-fitzpatricks-citi-analyst-latest.html
from Bloomberg .. Goldman forecasts gold to be US$1,825
Gold may climb over the next three months as U.S. lawmakers attempt to tackle the country’s debt ceiling and the world’s largest economy slows, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, advising investors to place bets on advances.
“We see current prices as a good entry point to re- establish fresh longs,” analysts Damien Courvalin and
Alec Phillips wrote in a Jan. 18 report. The bank reiterated a three- month target of $1,825 an ounce, as well as a forecast for prices to weaken in the second half as the
U.S. economy rebounds.
Gold fell 5.5 percent last quarter, the worst performance since 2008, on expectations for a recovery and potential end to central bank stimulus in the U.S. An advance to $1,825 would be consistent with rallies into debt-ceiling decisions, the analysts wrote. Since 1960, Congress has raised or revised the debt limit 79 times, according to the Treasury Department.
“The uncertainty associated with these issues, combined with our economists’ forecast for weak U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2013 following the negative impact of higher taxes will push gold” to the three-month target, they wrote.
Gold, which rallied for a 12th year in 2012, traded at $1,687.90 an ounce on the Comex at 9:49 a.m. in
New York. Holdings in
exchange-traded products reached a record last month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Most-active prices last traded above $1,825 an ounce in September 2011.
Borrowing Limit
The Treasury has said the U.S. will exceed its $16.4 trillion borrowing authority sometime from mid-February to early March. Financing for government agencies is set to lapse March 27, and lawmakers must pass new spending or cause a shutdown. Also in March, Congress will confront the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts, half from defense, that were postponed in a Jan. 1 tax deal.
Goldman restated its outlook for lower prices in the second half of this year, a call echoed by Credit Suisse Group AG and Allan Hochreiter(Pty) Ltd., as the U.S. recovers. As growth improves, prices will likely decline even with continued central bank and exchange-traded fund demand, Goldman said.
Gold’s bull market is over, Allan Hochreiter Chief Executive Officer Rene Hochreiter, the top forecaster in the London Bullion Market Association’s 2012 poll, said this month. The metal’s appeal is set to diminish as so-called fear trades fade, according to Credit Suisse’s
Tom Kendall, head of precious-metals research and the most accurate precious-metals forecaster in the past eight quarters tracked by Bloomberg.
Pimco Fund Expands Gold Holding on Outlook for Inflation
Pimco Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund has expanded its holding of gold as a hedge against inflation, anticipating further moves by central banks to spur economic growth, said Nic Johnson, the fund's manager.
The $20 billion fund increased its gold holdings to 11.5 percent of total assets from 10.5 percent two months ago, Johnson said today in a telephone interview from Newport Beach, California. The commodity fund is part of Pacific Investment Management Co., which also owns the world's largest bond fund.
" We think gold is going to perform in a positive correlation to changes in inflation," Johnson said. " We see higher inflation because of rising commodity prices, unconventional monetary policies and increasing sovereign debt."
Gold rallied in New York today to the highest price since May 2 after Federal Reserve policy makers issued the minutes from their July 31-Aug. 1, which indicated the Federal Open Market Committee may expand monetary stimulus to bolster the economy. Gold futures for December delivery rose as high as $1,658.20 an ounce on the Comex.
The precious metal surged 70 percent from the end of December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed kept borrowing costs at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of so- called quantitative easing. Gold advanced in the past two months amid speculation that China, the U.S. and Europe may take more steps to boost economic growth.
" We are tactical and will look for attractive dips" in prices to add to the fund's holdings, Johnson said, adding that a drop near $1,500 would prompt some buying.
Gold has its ups and downs for keen investors
GOLD, after a long run up from early last decade, reached a peak of $US1876.90 an ounce early in September last year.
Since then it has been steadily falling in a descending triangle pattern that Mark Umansky, a certified financial technician and counsellor with the Australian Technical Analysts Association, says shows the long-term uptrend for the time being has paused.
Descending triangles are formed when a series of lower highs emerge while the lows hold a steady level, in this case about $US1570 an ounce. This phenomenon can occur in both up and downtrends and where it appears in a longer term uptrend, as with the current situation, this can indicate a powerful reversal pattern may emerge, Umansky says.
If the current descending triangle is the precursor of a dramatic change to a downtrend for the gold price then the price will break downwards from the bottom of the triangle. In that case, the pattern of lower highs experienced in recent months will have been an indicator that the bears are more resolute in the market than the bulls.
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Umansky observes that falls through the base line of such a triangle pattern that represent reliable breakouts usually occur between half and three-quarters of the way to the apex where the two red lines meet on the right hand side of the page from the base at line A, the highest price point in the formation.
Patterns such as this can also generate upward breakouts. If the market breaks out on the downside this analysis would suggest a target of about $US1240, which is the distance of line A projected downwards from the breakout point of the triangle.
Line A represents a price movement of $US310.
Alternately, in an upward breakout, we would expect to see the price go in point C direction on the chart to a target of $US1916, again the distance of line A projected upwards from the breakout point above the upper side of the triangle.
A trading strategy for a down-side breakout from the pattern is to immediately close any open positions and open a new position shorting the market with a stop-loss in position just above the opposite upper boundary of the triangle. The process would be reversed if there is an upside breakout, with a stop-loss placed just below the opposite side of the triangle.
The loss associated with buying a futures contract that triggers the stop-loss would be $US40.11 for each contract. That means the risk-return ratio on an investment aiming at harvesting a $US310 return in either direction is about seven to one, an excellent prospect for investors, Umansky says.
However, investors are advised to be diligent and watch for a false breakout followed by a move in the opposite direction. In such a case reverse your positions immediately when a breakout occurs in the opposite direction, Umansky says.
What if US abadon maintain the ratio of US$ to 1 oucne of gold? will the gold value drop.
ozone2002 ( Date: 20-Feb-2012 16:55) Posted:
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Monday, Feb 20, 2012
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SINGAPORE - Singapore is seeking to lure bullion refiners by scrapping taxes on gold, a move which could also attract trading houses to open storage facilities and transform the country into a key Asian pricing hub, industry sources said on Monday.
Singapore will exempt investment-grade gold and other precious metals from a seven per cent goods and services tax to spur the development of gold trading, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Friday.
The change takes effect in October and may lift demand for gold bars and coins in the fourth quarter and into 2012. Singapore's investment gold demand nearly tripled to 3.5 tonnes in 2011, according to consultancy firm Thomson Reuters GFMS.
" It seems a little unfair to put a sales tax on what is essentially money. The removal of the GST on gold will allow Singapore to better compete with Hong Kong and other bullion trading centres in the region," said Nick Trevethan, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ in Singapore.
Refiners have been put off by Singapore's taxes, opting instead to mould and sell gold bars in Hong Kong, which does not impose duties on bullion, and Japan, where the consumption tax on gold is 5 per cent.
Industry sources, however, said at least one major refiner has shown interest in opening a factory in Singapore around the talk of the tax change. More gold traders are expected to set up offices here and store more bullion, following JP Morgan Chase & Co which opened a precious metals vault in 2010.
" I think this is really going to change the landscape in Singapore. A lot of companies will find the incentive to start operations in Singapore," a gold dealer said.
" This news is going to draw attention to Singapore as a safe place to park funds. Asset managers will also very excited. The trend in the last three years is that people are moving to physical hard assets from paper."
SINGAPORE PRICING CONTRACT
Singapore imports gold bars from Australia, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Japan, which are then sold to buyers in Southeast Asia and India, the world's largest gold consumer.
Gold scraps from the across the region are also traded in Singapore, and this helps determine the premiums for gold bars against prices in London.
Gold, typically a safe-haven asset, has been tracking the fortunes of the euro and stocks in recent months, with speculators selling the metal for cash to cover losses in other markets as the euro zone debt crisis caused much turbulence in financial markets.
Gold stood firm above $1,730 an ounce on hopes for Greece to seal a bailout deal, on course for its biggest daily rise in two weeks. Bullion struck a lifetime high around $1,920 an ounce last September.
" Singapore is already considered a safe destination for cash from investors in the region... and even as far out as the Middle East," an industry source said.
" Having the option of becoming a physical safe haven for assets like gold will only boost overall flows here."
The tax changes could be the first step towards a Singapore gold contract to complement the daily fixing in London, which is widely used as the benchmark spot transaction, analyst Trevethan said.
" There has been a tendency for exchanges to launch more Asia-centric contracts and benchmarks in the past few years, with varying degrees of success," said Trevethan at ANZ.
" An Asian gold fix would be sensible given the nexus of the physical market is centred on India and China, and the early fix from London comes late in the Asian trading day, providing it can attract enough sufficient participants to make it credible."
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Monday, Feb 20, 2012
Reuters |
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| Singapore seeks gold hub status with tax-free bullion |
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SINGAPORE - Singapore is seeking to lure bullion refiners by scrapping taxes on gold, a move which could also attract trading houses to open storage facilities and transform the country into a key Asian pricing hub, industry sources said on Monday.
Singapore will exempt investment-grade gold and other precious metals from a seven per cent goods and services tax to spur the development of gold trading, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Friday.
The change takes effect in October and may lift demand for gold bars and coins in the fourth quarter and into 2012. Singapore's investment gold demand nearly tripled to 3.5 tonnes in 2011, according to consultancy firm Thomson Reuters GFMS.
" It seems a little unfair to put a sales tax on what is essentially money. The removal of the GST on gold will allow Singapore to better compete with Hong Kong and other bullion trading centres in the region," said Nick Trevethan, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ in Singapore.
Refiners have been put off by Singapore's taxes, opting instead to mould and sell gold bars in Hong Kong, which does not impose duties on bullion, and Japan, where the consumption tax on gold is 5 per cent.
Industry sources, however, said at least one major refiner has shown interest in opening a factory in Singapore around the talk of the tax change. More gold traders are expected to set up offices here and store more bullion, following JP Morgan Chase & Co which opened a precious metals vault in 2010.
" I think this is really going to change the landscape in Singapore. A lot of companies will find the incentive to start operations in Singapore," a gold dealer said.
" This news is going to draw attention to Singapore as a safe place to park funds. Asset managers will also very excited. The trend in the last three years is that people are moving to physical hard assets from paper."
SINGAPORE PRICING CONTRACT
Singapore imports gold bars from Australia, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Japan, which are then sold to buyers in Southeast Asia and India, the world's largest gold consumer.
Gold scraps from the across the region are also traded in Singapore, and this helps determine the premiums for gold bars against prices in London.
Gold, typically a safe-haven asset, has been tracking the fortunes of the euro and stocks in recent months, with speculators selling the metal for cash to cover losses in other markets as the euro zone debt crisis caused much turbulence in financial markets.
Gold stood firm above $1,730 an ounce on hopes for Greece to seal a bailout deal, on course for its biggest daily rise in two weeks. Bullion struck a lifetime high around $1,920 an ounce last September.
" Singapore is already considered a safe destination for cash from investors in the region... and even as far out as the Middle East," an industry source said.
" Having the option of becoming a physical safe haven for assets like gold will only boost overall flows here."
The tax changes could be the first step towards a Singapore gold contract to complement the daily fixing in London, which is widely used as the benchmark spot transaction, analyst Trevethan said.
" There has been a tendency for exchanges to launch more Asia-centric contracts and benchmarks in the past few years, with varying degrees of success," said Trevethan at ANZ.
" An Asian gold fix would be sensible given the nexus of the physical market is centred on India and China, and the early fix from London comes late in the Asian trading day, providing it can attract enough sufficient participants to make it credible."
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More demand for gold ...Govt encouraging S'poreans to buy gold.. not only me.. keke
Singapore is set to capitalise on the strong demand in Asia for gold as
an asset. The government is exempting investment-grade gold and other
precious metals traded as financial assets, from the goods and services
tax (GST). This is already being done in a number of other countries
such as Australia, the UK and Switzerland.
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1/28/2012 @ 4:41PM
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Gold Is The Hottest Currency In The World
The price of gold is r oaring back from its latest
temporary correction, sending the bears into full withdrawal. If you
sold your gold in December as it fell to $1525 an ounce, you’re probably
feeling foolish at the incredible $210 rise to $1735– a 15% move in no
time at all.
Gold, you see, is not a commodity like oil and copper and wheat. It
is rather an alternative currency– one that finds buyers when paper
currencies like the Euro are being hugely increased in supply by the ECB
to forestall a sovereign cum bank crisis in Europe. There’s $650
billion in European bank and sovereign debt coming die before March 31,
2012 which can be sopped up by the $650 billion gift from ECB to the
banks at the bargain rate of 1%. And more available from the European
central bank– Europe’s very own Quantitative Easing program.
As the supply of gold cannot keep up with paper money(supply
increases very little despite exploration), and it can be bought
without loss of any real interest income, it seems clear t hat the gold
bull market is alive and well. Central banks obviously are of the mind
that gold’s rise will make up for t he decline in paper money and the
lack of income on central bank liquid investments.
Then, too, the speculators already dumped 42% of their long positions between August and December, 2011 according to the High-
Tech
Strategist, a January 5, 2012 market letter by Fred Hickey that I
strongly recommend. Hedge funds sold to meet redemptions. Hot money ran
at warnings by technicians.
The truth is that the drop to $1525 in December triggered the renewed
buying by the Chinese, who are the new incremental buyers in the
world. The Chinese prefer to buy on weakness and not compete with the
central banks of Russia, Korea, Thailand,Singapore and are buying to
hold.
Zhang Jianhua, the research bureau director of the People’s
Bank of China,
was quoted in the POBC internal newspaper as insisting that “The
Chinese government needs to further optimize China’s foreign exchange
asset portfolioi and seek relatively low entry points to buy gold
assets.”
Gold, apparently, is the Chinese priority for a “safe haven” when
slow economic growth leads to widespread monetary easing and fears of
ultimate inflation. Gold more than stocks or bonds or real estate, is
obviously seen as the preferred way to store wealth. In that sense the
Chinese are way ahead of the US and Europe.
After all its moves in 2011 gold was still up about 11%– more than
stocks any place, and only beaten by 10 year US treasuries. Treasuries
at 2% aren’t viewed as a reserve currency. Gold is the hottest currency
in the world. Just ask the Chinese.
