Swiber   

Swiber - recommended as a buy by Westcomb

Preferred service provider with integrated offshore services: Swiber prides itself over its ability to offer both offshore marine support services and offshore engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commission (EPCIC) services to customers in the offshore oil and gas industry. It will be the preferred service provider with dual capabilities as it has better control over the coordination and streamlining of work processes of the offshore oil and gas projects, and is able to reduce the risk of potential project disruption or delay and achieve cost efficiency.

Enhanced offshore EPCIC capabilities: The group's offshore EPCIC services in the installation of mooring systems for FSOs or FPSOs, installation of SPM buoys and jackets or topsides, laying of offshore pipelines and launching of jackets during the development phase of an offshore oil and gas project, as well as in the maintenance and refurbishment of SPM buoys and mooring systems during the production phase, will continue to be in strong demand, mirroring the current boom in oil and gas exploration, development and production activities. Its enhanced offshore EPCIC capabilities will elevate the group's positioning to undertake more complex and higher value projects.

Aggressive offshore marine support vessel fleet expansion: With an increased fleet size and a wider spread of vessels, from nine vessels as at Sept 17 to 21 vessels plus one pipelay barge by FY07, the group is now ready to reduce its reliance on third-party vessels and increase the utilisation of its own fleet. Its move up the value chain with specialised vessels, coupled with the upward trend in chartering rates, will give a boost to the group's performance.

Risk of oversupply of offshore marine supply vessels and cost overruns for offshore EPCIC projects: Any adverse development in the markets where the group operates, which leads to an oversupply of offshore marine supply vessels and a corresponding reduction in charter rates, will adversely affect the group's profitability. Further, there is the risk of cost overrun if the project is not properly managed. The group may also have to bear the risk of delays arising from weather conditions or shortage of skilled labour or raw materials.

Growth potential from existing markets and new market, India, in particular: Growth will continue to be driven by its three key markets - Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Contributions from India, its next significant growth market, will increase rapidly as the group has already secured contracts from BG Exploration India, and has formed a JV company in India to establish a stronger foothold in India.

Valuation and recommendation: Swiber will emerge as a leading player in offshore services, following its aggressive business expansion and timely positioning to ride on the vibrant offshore oil and gas industry. Net earnings will grow at a CAGR of 68 per cent over FY06-FY08, reflecting the positive impact of its capacity expansion and the robust industry dynamics.

Based on estimated net earnings of US$10.2 million in FY06, US$18.3 million in FY07, and US$28.7 million in FY08, it is currently trading at PEs of 16.7 times for FY06 (based on weighted share capital), 11.8 times for FY07 and 7.5 times for FY08. Forward valuation is attractive. Pegging its valuation at 13 times blended FY07-FY08 earnings, our 12-month price target is S$1.25.
BUY, by westcomb

 

Thanks rogue_trader! I have posted your table in another thread! Good work man!

 

Thanks for the good post & comments. Just hope that the chart can be of a wee wee bit of usefulness to fellow forumeers. If still need anything can let me know as I on and off will go and do/find this types of info for easy reference. Sometimes my reminsers will also forward me a lots of info which I find it very "hard" to digest.

 

Rogue-trader...

You are simply marvellous , man !...

It's great to have you in this hangout... Well done, friend.

 

Hi rogue-trader, Senior,

Thanks for the well tabulated info. Great...

 

Name	Last Done ($)	IPO Price ($)	List Date
ChinaEnergy	0.935	0.830	21/12/2006
Babcock&Brown	1.010	1.060	20/12/2006
Chemoil US$	0.525	0.450	14/12/2006
First REIT	0.720	0.710	11/12/2006
CapitaRChina	1.770	1.130	08/12/2006
HsuFuChi	1.050	0.850	01/12/2006
Riverstone	0.280	0.260	20/11/2006
Sitra	0.305	0.210	17/11/2006
Gems TV	1.380	1.080	10/11/2006
Swiber	0.900	0.355	08/11/2006
StraitsAsia	0.650	0.600	03/11/2006
Ouhua	0.470	0.380	03/11/2006
TexchemPack	0.310	0.400	02/11/2006
BerlianLaju	0.280	0.320	30/10/2006
ChinaBearing	0.490	0.320	20/10/2006
SinoTechfib	1.180	0.565	20/10/2006
Plastoform	0.190	0.230	12/10/2006
ChinaKangda	0.450	0.460	09/10/2006
Epure	1.490	0.650	06/10/2006
Pan Hong	0.465	0.350	20/09/2006
ChinaPDye	0.220	0.270	07/09/2006
Synear	1.440	0.540	18/08/2006
Cambridge	0.740	0.680	25/07/2006
CDL HTrust	1.450	0.830	19/07/2006
FrasersCT	1.450	1.030	05/07/2006
Yanlord	2.150	1.080	22/06/2006
BanyanTree	1.440	0.970	14/06/2006
Gallant	0.920	0.500	06/06/2006
OrientCent	0.870	0.350	01/06/2006
THBEV	0.285	0.280	30/05/2006
PacShipTr US$	0.420	0.450	26/05/2006
Link Hi	0.195	0.250	22/05/2006
Lorenzo	0.210	0.220	11/05/2006
Hengxin	0.640	0.250	11/05/2006
NatCool	0.300	0.200	10/05/2006
ChinaPreci	0.390	0.300	08/05/2006

 

Hi all,

Was reading your conversation about using TA for this counter. I wouldn't use TA for this counter yet because there's not enough numerical data yet. At least 6 months worth of data would be needed.

 

Not information.... just a listing of all the IPO's in 2006 so friends here can have a convenient reference... :)

 

iPunter, what are the informations that you need in those IPOs "floated" in 2006?

 

Just a suggestion...

For our benefit, it would be useful if someone well-versed in IPO issues can come up with a table of all IPO's floated in the year 2006 so we can do some comparison on them.

Anyone willing to do us forummers a favour?...  :)

 

The trading time frame for this counter is too "short" to be able to do an accurate TA on it as there is no "obivious trend" to be read from the indicators. If one applied A/D Lines & Chaikin, one can see that the prices respond "quite well" to the indicators but one can't be able to "derive" the trend.

 

hikitty, thanks for your advice. i will 'react' accordingly :)

merry christmas!

 

Hi bunbun - it depends on your time frame and "risk appetite"whether to take profit at any point of time.  Westcomb's posting, or my comments  shd not be treated as an inducement to buy or sell.   Gurus - pse advise whether TA on this share is possible (just started being traded on 8 November 2006)?

Hi Lawrenchoo - has been "relishing"  the fate of the daredevil short sellers and the contra players.  Sometimes either party can be caught on the wrong feet and lose $$$.  This is why I advise buying the quantity that one can afford to hold  at the present "lelong price" for  its potential (not guaranteed, pse) gain  next or next few months.  Pse don't panick to sell any share when  selling (by short sellers or contra players) takes place if the earnings growth is positive.  It's irrational to assume that in a selldown (accumulating at low price) or buy-up,  everyone who bought will definitely lose, unless the company is on the verge of receivership (e.g. China Aviation Oil).   Agree?

 

Hi Kitty, i tried to do the TA for swiber last night but faced some difficulties (which some of the gurus had advised me kindly on how to do it). nonetheless, i still went in last night to q. Was very tempted to take the profits and run off this morning but resisted.

i do hope you are right on this :)

 

Hi Kitty, you seem very interested in this counter, be it short or long.

 

Targeted price of $1.25 is achievable because of its positive earnings growth.  According to Westcomb's report, Swiber, its positive earnings growth is positve based on estimated net earnings of US$10.2m in FY 06, US$18.3m in FY07 and US$28.7m in FY 08 (juz according to its new businesses confirmed recently - more contracts may be in the pipeline)  It is currrently trading at PE ratio of 16.7x for FY06(based on weighted share capital), 11.8x for FY07 and 7.5x for FY08. Forward valuation is attractive

 

Christmas year-end  lelong sale!  Grab them at the present low prices b4 the big players  do very quickly!   Buy what you can afford to hold for the targeted price of S$1.25 (juz  my group's thinking - it may hit this price in January 2007 for all u know) according to Westcomb broker's report on 18 December 2006.