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Chinamilk

How many Q/Q pedigree bull semen or cow  to sell?, guess alot more to make that much, oso alot more grass land to grace i guess..so will UOB Kay Hian recommendation px $2.17c coming sooner or later?.

 

Brief update on its 1H07 results witnessed a stronger demand for its core breeding product ? pedigree bull semen. On a Q/Q basis, the strongest growth came from pedigree bull semen rising 17.5% to Rmb85.5MM, followed by a 7.6% and 4.6 rise in raw milk revenue and pedigree cow embryos to Rmb13.5m and Rmb8.5m respectively.

 

Some may have oredi run road liao as tp is reach while other may hop into it hoping to reach new height and a new high and to make more. Wishes those brave one who bot recently, guess will have to wait a little longer or several more round to move to d px U like to see. Yah..

 

May be undergoing a trend reversal downwards now... beware.

 

Milk closed at $1.44c, down -6 cents after rose to JP morgan tp price of $1.52c on lower volume of 3,987,000 mil shares traded. UOBKH tp px of $2.17c will have to take a longer time liao (12mths)??. Wondering who will chase px to $1.52c, then $1.68c, then $1.88c then $2/- liao, as usual those boys know or knew run 1st, leaving those poor boys poorer. Just sharing my tot, no unintention or intention to encourage ppl to trade (buy/sell or hold). Ur $$$. Ur decision. 

 

UOB Kay Hian Friday, November 10, 2006
	BUY
	China Milk Products Group 2Q07: Outstanding Results Due To Higher Sales Of Semen And Embryos
	Current Price : S$1.39 Target (12-mth) : S$2.17
	Outstanding 2Q07 results. China Milk Products' (CMP) revenue increased 48% yoy and net profit increased 69% yoy. Higher sales were driven primarily by higher sales of semen and embryos, which are well above our expectations. Raw milk production came in slightly below our expectation as the new cows are taking a longer time to achieve the expected production volume.
	FY07 forecast raised. Based on the 1HFY07 performance, we revise our earnings model to better reflect the growth trends of the various products. We raise our revenue assumptions for semen and embryos, which account for more than 85% of revenue. The growth assumptions for milk production are reduced as more time is needed to boost the production capacity of the new cows. We increase our FY07 revenue, net profit and EPS forecasts by 7.6%, 15.0% and 15.0% respectively.
	Outlook. CMP has guided for a stronger 2HFY07 with the larger herd size. In addition, the dairy processing plant is expected to be operational by end-06. The company is in discussions with four major dairy product manufacturers to process dairy products on an original equipment manufacturing (OEM) basis. Given that 50% of our full-year net profit forecast of Rmb337m for FY07 has already been achieved, and a stronger performance is expected in 2HFY07, our full-year forecast is within reach.
	Valuation. Our valuation basis for CMP remains at a 30% discount to its downstream peers' PEs in the China dairy segment which are currently trading at average current and forward PEs of 28x and 24x respectively. We ascribe a blended PE of 18.1x based on the average of FY07 and FY08 PEs, which gives a new target price of S$2.17. We believe there is room for the discount to shrink once CMP establishes a longer track record and when the OEM dairy processing business has better visibility. Reiterate BUY.

 

I think this one will still uptrend.

 

China Milk closed  $1.46 cts, up plus 6 cts on a vol of 9,989 million shares traded, itis veery near to JP prices TP, still  ian wondering will it hit UOBKH TP px of $2.05 before everybody run away, Just take care while enjoying the run up, once bitten twice shy. 

 

This time UOBKH calling the shot to $2.05 on a 12 months target, tink those bot cheap, may be good to let go when px cheongg...matter of sell on good news to me.

 

Healthy volumes on this counter. Looks to be on uptrend now.

 

Scare scarey memm... the last time DBS called for a buy, with TP px of $1.98, I kena sabo, lost a few K, then px drop to below $1/- before it make a come back to $1.34 -$1.38c range. Wishes U all believers, good luck hahh...Cheongg...ahh "Teo Bo??" 

 

Monday, November 06, 2006
	BUY
	China Milk Products Group It's All About Bulls And Cows
	Target (12-mth) : S$2.05
	The key to investment in the China dairy sector is to identify the best part of the value chain. In China, the best and the most lucrative part is not the downstream manufacturing and sale of processed dairy products but the upstream business of "cow breeding and milking". Unlike other China dairy companies, CMP supplies pedigree bull semen and cow embryos for breeding; and raw milk to other major dairy producers in China. It is the only listed company with a supply side exposure in the China dairy sector. There are high barriers to entry and CMP faces little competition in its business. With 78% of its revenue from bull semen and 6% from cow embryos, CMP has acquired a significant market share since its incorporation in 2001.
	Sustainable demand for semen and embryos underpinned by long-term breedimprovement programmes. We foresee very strong demand for pedigree semen and embryos in China, driven by the government's targets for better milk yield and higher productivity from its cattle population. With these on-going breed-improvement programmes, CMP should experience sustainable demand for its pedigree semen and embryos as China strives to improve its milk yield over the next 20 years from the current yield of 2.5ton/cow.
	Larger herd size and new OEM dairy processing business to boost earnings growth. As China raises its dairy consumption per capita from 7kg to 25kg, vs 80-90kg in other major dairy countries, CMP as a milk supplier is well-positioned to benefit from this multi-year growth trend. Revenue growth will be driven by the herd size growing from the current 11,000 to 30,000 by FY10. In addition, CMP's new OEM dairy processing business offers a mutually beneficial proposition to the dairy companies and permits CMP to derive greater value for each tonne of milk that it supplies.
	EPS CAGR and ROE of 25-30% for FY06-09 and attractive valuation. Current valuation is undemanding at 13.8x FY07 PE, more than 50% discount to its peers' average in the China dairy sector. Such a steep discount is not warranted, given CMP's substantial exposure to the more lucrative upstream part of the industry, and its stronger balance sheet compared to its downstream counterparts. The competitive advantage from its upstream business exposure warrants a premium rating over its competitors but we have assigned a PE of 18.1x based on a 30% discount to the average current and forward PEs of its peers'. There is room for the discount to narrow once CMP establishes a longer track record as a listed company. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of $2.05.

 

UOB-KayHian starts coverage of China Milk Products at Buy with S$2.05 target price. Says current valuation of 13.8X FY07 P/E undemanding as it's more than 50% discount to peers' average in China dairy sector; steep discount "not warranted" given company's substantial exposure to more lucrative upstream business of cow breeding, milking and stronger balance sheet vs downstream rivals. UOB-KH foresees "very strong" demand for pedigree semen, embryos in China, driven by government's aim for better milk yield, higher productivity from cattle population. Adds firm poised to benefit from rising dairy consumption in China.

 

Some further interest in the stock this morning after result announcement. Tussle at $1.35/1/36.

 

Could be experiencing upturn now. need few days to confirm.

 

BioT is retreading at this moment, Milk like to Cheong...hohh. take care.

 

looks like houses now run out of ideas so uses dcf, fcff, wacc to justify their calls. Read too many of these stuff for past few months. More likely results coming out so need to say some cxxc n bull stuff to draw retail investors in. Not surprise borrow some bulls and cows to their grassland to justify their extra million straws of bull semen hor. we hv bio-trick with their swam away bacteria and china food with their massaged up figures.

 

Might have a correction in price next week.

 

Help!! Just take care nearer to tp px. Don hope this baby.

 

thank you  sunview, we amateurs need some help!