Luye Pharma   

ASIAPHARM

I gave up on this counter as one's patience can be limited. But "cheonging"  -that pleasure-inducing phenomenon- in the near future is quite likely if one waits long enough.

 

I guess you guys are right with your readings, much as this counter has huge potentials, but it is not for short term investment with all the government regulations.

Looks like it is holding at around +/- $0.60.

Maybe I should let go and not tie up my cash until it is time to move in. It used to be the darling of the stock market always trading at high volumes and with prices inching up every trading day. Guess I came in at the wrong time at $0.68. 

 

I'm getting mixed signals on this one.

 

I'm getting mixed signals on this one.

 

Don't worry..this stock will still rise in the "medium" term..

 

UOBKayHian Thursday, November 23, 2006
	HOLD
	Asia Pharm Group Recovery On Main Product But Weak Industry Conditions Remain
	S$0.59
	3Q06 results in line with our expectation. Revenue declined 8% yoy to Rmb78m, while net profit declined by 2% to Rmb20m. 9M06 earnings were 62% of our FY06 forecasts. Maitongna, the biggest revenue contributor in FY05, reported another yoy decline this quarter after the government reduced the maximum daily dosage from 25mg to 20mg, just as it did last year. As such, AsiaPharm had to change its product specifications and missed the bidding period for the National Healthcare Scheme (NHS) for FY06. Lutingnuo, another major product, reported single-digit growth, while other products saw better growth coming from a lower base. Gross margin was maintained at 78%.
	Expecting more recovery from Maitongna in FY07, but industry conditions could hurt overall growth rate. Although sales of Maitongna still reported a yoy decline this quarter, the decline was smaller than that in 2Q06. As new rounds of NHS bidding will start at end-FY06, we expect 5mg/10mg Maitongna to gain a bigger market share in FY07. But weak industry conditions may extend into FY07, thus we do not expect strong growth from the existing products next year.
	Maintain HOLD. We have fine-tuned our FY06 earnings forecast from Rmb96m to Rmb91m. The stock is trading at 12.7x FY07 PE. We prefer to monitor the market and the company's recovery before we consider an upgrade. Maintain HOLD call with an entry price of S$0.57.

 

..as predicted, moving up liao..

 

..This counter is going to surge soon..keep a watch..

 

This counter has healthy volumes but it seems to be on a downtrend now

 

My interpretation of 'clamp down' implies that some existing products may also got banned overnite too. Come to think of it, a new product offering does not necessarily mean a product can sell well in a highly competitor market if there happens to exist a substitute elsewhere. However, based on FA, long term earnings should be positive depending on existing cash cow segment regardless of new products. Note: it only makes economic sense to mass produce patented product; assuming such demand grows over time then zoom up.

 

Yup... I believe the big boys will agree with you, too. Furthermore, it is obviously a trend reversal for this battered down baby  (It's time, Baby, it's time!).We'll see its true colours in the coming weeks.  :)


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..Buy now if u haven't own any..I expect 3rd qtr to be impacted by the clamp down in China, but it turns out not to be the case, so going forward, subsequent qtr results should be good, even though it may not be in the 3rd qtr..With the huge and aging Chinese population, agrravating by a lacking health care system this counter potential is going to be GREAT!

 

AsiaPharm appears to be firming up...

Any comments for punters to benefit from?

 

Pls take note that A/D & Chaikin are flat while Bollinger had just "break" below the "middle" line.

 

Yup,  that's a good price...      ;)

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Thanks for your compilments,iPunter.

Another thing to note: At this time of last year, this stock was trading at 65cts, compared to what it is doing now.

 

Hi BULLBEAR,

Good analysis! :)

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I had attended a talk on this counter, and from the talk, I gathered that there are improving signs on the clamp down on sale of drugs by Chinese authorities. Hence, going forward, this counter remain very positive, and the acquisition of CMNa is going to impact its bottom line positiviely starting next financial year. Moreover, where else can you find a company flush with a cash hordes of RMB423M. With a PE of 16 times (Largely the same as last year), downside should be limited. I would definitely keep mine and accumulate during price weakness.

 

I had expected this counter to do a surge in the last few days, but sadly that didn't happen at all but instead the stock weakened on a positive anouncement.

Well, that's the nature market of the market I, suppose.

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Trade With Care

 

I had expected this counter to do a surge in the last few days, but sadly that didn't happen at all but instead the stock weakened on a positive anouncement.

Well, that's the nature market of the market I, suppose.

-------------
Trade With Care